Tennis Tips - October 3 - October 9

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

For today, I very much like Karatsev over Zheng at 1.93 with Pinnacle, even despite his awful form book. Essentially home conditions for him, and he's still losing mainly against better players than Zheng is beating, plus the quality is still there.

[sterziyskii]

What do you guys think about Khachanov, Cilic and Evans for tomorrow?

[CzechPunter]

Cilic is a dangerous proposition after having a long week in Israel.

[sterziyskii]

28 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Cilic is a dangerous proposition after having a long week in Israel.

He had a tough match against Thiem in the 1/8 Finals and after that he only played 2 more matches. A pretty easy semifinal and the final in which he had no chance. Plus I think Otte is so out of form rn. Evans seems like a decent match but not sure about Khachanov. Looks like the better player rn at @1.75. Cressy looks out of rhythm and hasn't played well at hard courts this year (only had a decent grass season).

[CzechPunter]

I agree with everything you've said, the odds for Cilic just look a bit too short to me given the risk, but he's the favorite of course. 

[Swiss Maestro]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

For today, I very much like Karatsev over Zheng at 1.93 with Pinnacle, even despite his awful form book. Essentially home conditions for him, and he's still losing mainly against better players than Zheng is beating, plus the quality is still there.

Wow! It takes a lot of value to bet on Aslan at this particular moment. He's in a disastrous losing streak (1-9) and he even lost in Tel Aviv to Etcheverry, a player who only has won 2 ATP main draw matches on hard in his entire career (the other win is against another pure claycourter, Facundo Mena...). 
Now, add to that the Aslan's dark record of match f*****  and you definitely will get an explosive cocktail. I have censored the word but all the punters who know Aslan will know what word goes there.

2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

What do you guys think about Khachanov, Cilic and Evans for tomorrow?

Well, Khachanov was impressive in the US Open and he's really good playing on hard indoor courts. Actually, the only Masters 1000 he has won is played on indoors (2018 Paris Masters). Something you should be worried about if you want to bet on him is why he neither played in Metz nor Tel Aviv. Did he want to rest? Or it was some kind of physical problem? Who knows... but it's been a month since his last match. Cressy returned in Tel Aviv after his injury during his first round match in the US Open. He beat Korda in straight sets and that was a pretty convincing victory... Then, he lost to Lestienne in 3 tight sets (7-6, 3-6, 6-7). He was impressive on serve (he only faced 1 BP in the whole match). 
Honestly, it's really hard to predict. Cressy will give no rhythm to Karen. IMO, this is the kind of match you shouldn't get involved unless the odds are really good.

In relation to the Cilic-Otte match, it's another match with some red flags. Cilic is playing good and he reached the Final in Tel Aviv. Otte reached the doubles final in Sofia..., so I can say neither Cilic nor Otte will have the proper training for their first round match here. If you think Cilic can play well 2 straight weeks then that's your player. In any case, it's a match with some red flags for the reasons I've explained. EDIT. I forgot to mention the horrible losing streak of Otte in singles, but I'm sure you are aware of that.

Finally, the Evans' match. I think he should beat Albot easily. It would be a surprise if he lost to him.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Swiss Maestro

[gg-77]

Guys I have a question. It is out of topic but I think it interests everyone here.

Is there any place that I can find WTA break percentage when serving for match? Even at 5-0 5-1 they are getting broken and it is really interesting. If anyone has this data or a tool to find this data it would be amazing to see. Cheers.

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Wow! It takes a lot of value to bet on Aslan at this particular moment. He's in a disastrous losing streak (1-9) and he even lost in Tel Aviv to Etcheverry, a player who only has won 2 ATP main draw matches on hard in his entire career (the other win is against another pure claycourter, Facundo Mena...). 
Now, add to that the Aslan's dark record of match f*****  and you definitely will get an explosive cocktail. I have censored the word but all the punters who know Aslan will know what word goes there.

Well, Khachanov was impressive in the US Open and he's really good playing on hard indoor courts. Actually, the only Masters 1000 he has won is played on indoors (2018 Paris Masters). Something you should be worried about if you want to bet on him is why he neither played in Metz nor Tel Aviv. Did he want to rest? Or it was some kind of physical problem? Who knows... but it's been a month since his last match. Cressy returned in Tel Aviv after his injury during his first round match in the US Open. He beat Korda in straight sets and that was a pretty convincing victory... Then, he lost to Lestienne in 3 tight sets (7-6, 3-6, 6-7). He was impressive on serve (he only faced 1 BP in the whole match). 
Honestly, it's really hard to predict. Cressy will give no rhythm to Karen. IMO, this is the kind of match you shouldn't get involved unless the odds are really good.

In relation to the Cilic-Otte match, it's another match with some red flags. Cilic is playing good and he reached the Final in Tel Aviv. Otte reached the doubles final in Sofia..., so I can say neither Cilic nor Otte will have the proper training for their first round match here. If you think Cilic can play well 2 straight weeks then that's your player. In any case, it's a match with some red flags for the reasons I've explained. EDIT. I forgot to mention the horrible losing streak of Otte in singles, but I'm sure you are aware of that.

Finally, the Evans' match. I think he should beat Albot easily. It would be a surprise if he lost to him.

Well pointed @Swiss Maestro

[CzechPunter]

I'm taking Ons Jabeur to win WTA Monastir at 3.25 with Bet365. Mertens hasn't been great throughout the year, which leaves Kudermetova as the main opposition, and I think Jabeur will be getting plenty of crowd and organiser support in all possible ways. I can see plenty of players not enjoying the conditions as well.

[carina007]

I think Bublik is a good bet only because he is playing at home and he will be very motivated. Personally I think he is clown.

Last year he reached semi-final.

[neilovan]

Just one bet for me today. I like Radacanu to beat Daria Kasatkina in Ostrava. Kasatkina has not played a competitive match since the US Open, where she lost 1st round to Harriet Dart. For me not having played for almost 5 weeks is a big deal.

Radacanu had a decent run in the Korean open. My feeling is that Kasatkina gets beat in straight sets here.

I also like Radacanu here, because if she is losing there is a fairly good chance she will quit. She won't do that if she is winning...

Was watching Ruud lose to Munar. Man, did he play badly. Did everything poorly. Missed so many easy balls. Really bad performance.

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

8 hours ago, carina007 said:

I think Bublik is a good bet only because he is playing at home and he will be very motivated. Personally I think he is clown.

Last year he reached semi-final.

I just can't back that guy at all. In the same category as Paire for me. Right at the bottom of the list of places for my money.

Any opinions on the close woman's matches appreciated

Harriet Dart (2) v Parrizas-Diaz (1.8)

Martic (1.61) v L Fruhvirtova (2.3)  for me Martic has too many street smarts and wins.

Blinkova v McNally ( a complete lottery)

Ostapenko (1.53) v Sasnovich (2.5)  (Ostapenko lost the final set of her last two losses 6-0)

Edited October 4, 2022 by neilovan

[amity]

25 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Just one bet for me today. I like Radacanu to beat Daria Kasatkina in Ostrava. Kasatkina has not played a competitive match since the US Open, where she lost 1st round to Harriet Dart. For me not having played for almost 5 weeks is a big deal.

Radacanu had a decent run in the Korean open. My feeling is that Kasatkina gets beat in straight sets here.

I also like Radacanu here, because if she is losing there is a fairly good chance she will quit. She won't do that if she is winning...

Was watching Ruud lose to Munar. Man, did he play badly. Did everything poorly. Missed so many easy balls. Really bad performance.

 

I see Paddy Power have a special on Raducanu and Dart to win in straights at 14/1.

Bit of a long shot but might be worth a small wager, if you reckon Raducanu could do it in two sets. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by amity

[neilovan]

4 minutes ago, amity said:

I see Paddy Power have a special on Raducanu and Dart to win in straights at 14/1.

Bit of a long shot but might be worth a small wager, if you reckon Raducanu could do it in two sets. 

She quit (again) v Ostapenko, but the 3 matches she played before were all won in straight sets. I think she will actually do much better, without this huge media focus,. If I could get 14 to 1 I would be taking that bet. Not going crazy but I think she has a decent chance against an undercooked opponent.

[neilovan]

Amazing to see the world #1 and the world #3 lose in the same day.  Alcaraz was 1.1 to 10 and Ruud was about 1.6 to 10 . At 1.1 to 10 I am not betting but those are unreal results.

[neilovan]

Took some big bets on Ostapenko losing an they look like they will win. Something not right with her. Either injured, or something going on in personal life because her tennis and focus is really poor. As I type she is a set and 4-1 down (should have been 5-0 but Sasnovich served 2 doubles in a row at deuce.  This match is a beating (6-2 and probably 6-2), which is +4 serve break advantage to Sasnovich.

 

I cannot see Martic losing to Fruhvirtova. She is a really smart player. Court craft excellent, and she does not beat herself. Cannot see her being overpowered here. My feeling is she frustrates the opponent and her experience gets her a comfortable win.

Edited October 4, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, it's probably wise to treat the world's number one and three a bit differently than when Nadal/Djokovic/Federer were ranked like that.

[neilovan]

2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, it's probably wise to treat the world's number one and three a bit differently than when Nadal/Djokovic/Federer were ranked like that.

If Djokovic plays the US Open, I don't think Alcaraz has his 1st major title. Non of these up and comers can really handle him at grand slam level.

[Swiss Maestro]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

Amazing to see the world #1 and the world #3 lose in the same day.  Alcaraz was 1.1 to 10 and Ruud was about 1.6 to 10 . At 1.1 to 10 I am not betting but those are unreal results.

Just before the Final of the US Open I made a post about these 2 players and the fact that they were playing for the world number 1 spot. 

Ruud is not a gifted a player, he's just a good clay court player. That's all. He's not good on fast courts and I think he's run in the USO is deceptive. He could have lost against Paul in 4 sets in his third round match. IMO, his only big achievement was beating Khachanov. I do not rate his victory against Matteo because Matteo was miles away from his best form. Ruud has no a big serve and his game lacks aggression. I also have seen him today. 18 unforced errors in the first set. I don't know how many he did in the second set, but you can expect a similar number. A player whose bigger weapon is his consistency doing more than 30 UE in 2 sets. Bravo! ?

In relation to Alcaraz, he doesn't lack aggression but he definitely lacks a big serve and (sometimes) the patience to build points. I think he can be a dominant player on clay in the next years, but not on hard and even less on grass.

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I cannot see Martic losing to Fruhvirtova. She is a really smart player. Court craft excellent, and she does not beat herself. Cannot see her being overpowered here. My feeling is she frustrates the opponent and her experience gets her a comfortable win.

Linda needs a serve, otherwise she won't achieve big things.

[neilovan]

13 minutes ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Just before the Final of the US Open I made a post about these 2 players and the fact that they were playing for the world number 1 spot. 

Ruud is not a gifted a player, he's just a good clay court player. That's all. He's not good on fast courts and I think he's run in the USO is deceptive. He could have lost against Paul in 4 sets in his third round match. IMO, his only big achievement was beating Khachanov. I do not rate his victory against Matteo because Matteo was miles away from his best form. Ruud has no a big serve and his game lacks aggression. I also have seen him today. 18 unforced errors in the first set. I don't know how many he did in the second set, but you can expect a similar number. A player whose bigger weapon is his consistency doing more than 30 UE in 2 sets. Bravo! ?

In relation to Alcaraz, he doesn't lack aggression but he definitely lacks a big serve and (sometimes) the patience to build points. I think he can be a dominant player on clay in the next years, but not on hard and even less on grass.

Linda needs a serve, otherwise she won't achieve big things.

Drives me crazy when I see the coaches at my club not forcing small teenagers to really hit the serve. HIT IT HARD, and get the body, the shoulder and the arm used to the intensity. My dad was a tennis teacher, I would hit 500 serves on a Sat morning. No pushing ... just blasting the ball.  When your growth spurt comes, you now have a cannon as a weapon instead of a spud gun. It's like golf. You can't teach swing speed...  You can always throttle it back, and gain technique, but you can't gain speed with such technical activities.

[four-leaf]

The brazilian Daniel Dutra Da Silva is firing on all cylinders today in Campinas challenger while his opponent Pol Martin Tiffon just can't stop making UEs and DFs. Good combination for a turnaround for the brazilian guy.

[neilovan]

And there goes Raducanu. Just seems to have no confidence at the big moments, but changing your coach every few months won't help either. Her win at US Open without dropping a set will probably standing for years as the biggest perfect storm fluke in tennis.

3 bets I like today. Will take them all as singles.

Krejcikova to beat Rogers. Krejcikova definitely returning to her form from before injury and looks a difficult proposition. Excellent tournament last up winning last week and beating good players. I also think it is harder for Americans to come to Europe for extended periods and play there. Some home advantage is a factor as well.

I liked what I saw from Goffin against Alcaraz. He played well, and the court definitely suites him. Will take him to win outright against Mannarino.

Third bet is Siniakova to beat Lui. Siniakova just in great form, also winning her last event. Had plenty of time between tournaments and should be ready to play well again today.

 

[Swiss Maestro]

Pedro Martinez to beat Munar at 2.75 with bet365 may be a good one.

Pedro broke an 8 losing streak after beating Popyrin in 2 sets. Munar beat Ruud in 2 sets. Obviously, Munar has had better results recently, but there are couple of facts that make me think Pedro can win this. Firstly, the h2h. Pedro leads it 4-1 and he has won the last 3 matches (2020-2022). None of these players is a good hard court player but I think Pedro's game suits on this surface a little bit more than Munar's. Besides, both players know each other very well and when this happens matches tend to be more equal.

[neilovan]

8 minutes ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Pedro Martinez to beat Munar at 2.75 with bet365 may be a good one.

Pedro broke an 8 losing streak after beating Popyrin in 2 sets. Munar beat Ruud in 2 sets. Obviously, Munar has had better results recently, but there are couple of facts that make me think Pedro can win this. Firstly, the h2h. Pedro leads it 4-1 and he has won the last 3 matches (2020-2022). None of these players is a good hard court player but I think Pedro's game suits on this surface a little bit more than Munar's. Besides, both players know each other very well and when this happens matches tend to be more equal.

Munar is definitely playing better. It is like he didn't have belief before, and failed to finish off a lot of matches. I would be hesitant to oppose him.

[amity]

I think it's worth going against Badosa again vs Kvitova, the latter who has been pretty solid, her recent losses have mostly been to top players like Pegula or those in great form like Garcia (who she lost to in the Cincinatti final), whilst Badosa has done nothing of note in recent months, often losing badly in matches where she was favourite, her only notable win of recent tournaments was against Gauff in San Jose. There's definitely something not right with her this last six months, whether it's something off court or perhaps Covid after effects, she's just way too inconsistent these days and her current ranking of 4 doesn't reflect her standard of late which is perhaps top 50 level, probably not even top 25 level.

At 8/13 (Paddy Power), I think Kvitova is the wise bet here, and the 2.5 game handicap (again with Paddy Power) also looks like a steal, considering that Badosa is clearly not playing to anything like her best in recent months.

Admittedly Badosa won their last H2H in Wimbledon but Paula has gone backwards since, so I'm prepared to go against her here. 

I notice a special on Paddy Power for Swiatek and Kvitova to both win 2-0 at 10/3. I think this is also worth a small wager. Swiatek plays Tomljanovic who is in pretty good form too it has to be said, still though if Iga is switched on, she wins this in two. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by amity

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, neilovan said:

And there goes Raducanu. Just seems to have no confidence at the big moments, but changing your coach every few months won't help either. Her win at US Open without dropping a set will probably standing for years as the biggest perfect storm fluke in tennis.

3 bets I like today. Will take them all as singles.

Krejcikova to beat Rogers. Krejcikova definitely returning to her form from before injury and looks a difficult proposition. Excellent tournament last up winning last week and beating good players. I also think it is harder for Americans to come to Europe for extended periods and play there. Some home advantage is a factor as well.

I liked what I saw from Goffin against Alcaraz. He played well, and the court definitely suites him. Will take him to win outright against Mannarino.

Third bet is Siniakova to beat Lui. Siniakova just in great form, also winning her last event. Had plenty of time between tournaments and should be ready to play well again today.

 

Just gotta put 1 pound on them and they have no chance. The absolute kiss of death. Goffin just stops playing after the first set, and Siniakova turns into a tennis zombie at 5-6 serving. 3 doubles in one game and then plays a second set like a beginner. Exactly what you expect from a recent tournament winner, and US open woman's doubles winner.

Edited October 5, 2022 by neilovan

[Swiss Maestro]

5 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Pedro Martinez to beat Munar at 2.75 with bet365 may be a good one.

Pedro broke an 8 losing streak after beating Popyrin in 2 sets. Munar beat Ruud in 2 sets. Obviously, Munar has had better results recently, but there are couple of facts that make me think Pedro can win this. Firstly, the h2h. Pedro leads it 4-1 and he has won the last 3 matches (2020-2022). None of these players is a good hard court player but I think Pedro's game suits on this surface a little bit more than Munar's. Besides, both players know each other very well and when this happens matches tend to be more equal.

What a roller coaster! Pedro had 2 break points in the first set to get a double break but he wasted them and he ended up losing the set... In the second, he won 6 straight games after losing the first 3. In the final set, Munar started cramping and he could do absolutely nothing... 

@neilovan I know Munar was playing better, but IMO the h2h (5-1, now) and the fact Pedro's game suits better on hard courts than Munar's neutralized that. They know really well each other and when that happens the matches are more equal (trust me, it's a fact). Regardless of what happened to Munar in the third set I think Pedro at 2.75 was value.

[amity]

22 hours ago, amity said:

I think it's worth going against Badosa again vs Kvitova, the latter who has been pretty solid, her recent losses have mostly been to top players like Pegula or those in great form like Garcia (who she lost to in the Cincinatti final), whilst Badosa has done nothing of note in recent months, often losing badly in matches where she was favourite, her only notable win of recent tournaments was against Gauff in San Jose. There's definitely something not right with her this last six months, whether it's something off court or perhaps Covid after effects, she's just way too inconsistent these days and her current ranking of 4 doesn't reflect her standard of late which is perhaps top 50 level, probably not even top 25 level.

At 8/13 (Paddy Power), I think Kvitova is the wise bet here, and the 2.5 game handicap (again with Paddy Power) also looks like a steal, considering that Badosa is clearly not playing to anything like her best in recent months.

Admittedly Badosa won their last H2H in Wimbledon but Paula has gone backwards since, so I'm prepared to go against her here. 

I notice a special on Paddy Power for Swiatek and Kvitova to both win 2-0 at 10/3. I think this is also worth a small wager. Swiatek plays Tomljanovic who is in pretty good form too it has to be said, still though if Iga is switched on, she wins this in two. 

Anyone get on this? All of them came in! (yes I know Swiatek won her match via retirement but PP still paid out!)

And as per normal, I didn't put much of my money where my mouth was, played it too safe ? 

At least I had a double on a Djoker + Tsitipas 2-0 each which also came in, so I still made some cash.

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, amity said:

Anyone get on this? All of them came in! (yes I know Swiatek won her match via retirement but PP still paid out!)

And as per normal, I didn't put much of my money where my mouth was, played it too safe ? 

At least I had a double on a Djoker + Tsitipas 2-0 each which also came in, so I still made some cash.

Here it didn't work like that. They just remove the non completed leg and recalculate the payout. 

Does anybody have a source for real time, in match live tennis statistics? I can't access betfair.