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ProfessorMJ

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ProfessorMJ last won the day on September 5 2019

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  1. NHL System Picks for Friday January 17th The betting strategies picked 6 underdogs last night. Unbelievably, those plays went 4-2 for a huge 4.06-unit profit! RECORD: Bets won = 78 Bets lost = 85 Profit = +16.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 3 STARS = RedWings (@ +208 or 3.08 odds, vs Penguins) I already have the answer to the question I raised yesterday about "morning" versus "closing" lines: 41.2% of the time, closing line > morning line 43.2% of the time, morning line > closing line 15.5% of the time, remained the same Also, the profit made from closing lines dropped very slightly compared to the one obtained from morning lines. In summary, it doesn't really matter whether we bet the morning lines or the closing lines with respect to the plays recommended by my betting systems. Good to know! Have a very nice weekend my friends! Professor MJ
  2. NHL System Picks for Thursday January 16th The lone system play from last night was a winner, as the Flyers upset the Blues at St Louis in overtime! A quick anecdote for you (you'll see why it is of great interest to you in a short while): I realized, at some point yesterday, that I had forgotten to place my own bet on Philly. I logged into my online accounts and found out the best line on the Flyers was no longer 2.50, but rather 2.75! I was thrilled! Here's the important takeaway: The lines I share with you are the best "morning" lines since I post in the morning. Perhaps the "closing" lines tend to be bigger on our NHL system plays? My betting strategies mostly follow the contrarian approach, so we tend to bet unpopular teams (for example, teams whose offense has been cold lately, or teams who have allowed tons of goals recently, or are undergoing long losing skids, etc). For this reason, maybe the lines have a tendency to increase during the day. Maybe, maybe not. I intend to log the best closing lines for all plays we made this season (which can be obtained via Covers.com) and see how they compare to my morning lines. Once I'm done, I'll calculate two things: 1) The proportion of games where the closing lines were bigger than the morning lines (for the system plays we made). 2) The updated profit (how much money would we have made if we had waited just before games started to place our bets?). Obviously, I'll be happy to share the findings with you when I'm finished digging the data! We'll see if betting later during the day is more advantageous to us or not. RECORD: Bets won = 74 Bets lost = 83 Profit = +11.99 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 4 STARS = Kings (@ +165 or 2.65 odds, at Panthers) 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ +125 or 2.25 odds, vs Hurricanes) 2 STARS = Ducks (@ +180 or 2.80 odds, at Predators) 1 STAR = Rangers (@ +151 or 2.51 odds, at Islanders) 1 STAR = Wild (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, vs Lightning) 1 STAR = Coyotes (@ +112 or 2.12 odds, at Canucks) Let's gooooooooo!! Professor MJ
  3. NHL System Picks for Wednesday January 15th Yesterday was rough, as we lost 2.30 units, although we were 1 minute 15 seconds away from finishing the night with an overall gain. Indeed, the Kings led 3-2 late in the third period, but Tampa tied the game with 1:15 left and won during the shootout. Since the Kings were huge dogs whose odds were 3.40, we would have finished the night +1.10 instead of -2.30. Can't win them all! Let's rebound! RECORD: Bets won = 73 Bets lost = 83 Profit = +10.49 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 4 STARS = Flyers (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, at Blues) IMPORTANT!!! Here are some very interesting numbers!!! 1- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the star rating If the pick was based on... 1 system (rated 1-2 star(s)): +23.58 units via 245 bets (ROI = +9.6%) 2 systems (rated 3-4 stars): -5.45 units via 80 bets (ROI = -6.8%) 3+ systems (rated 5 stars): +5.53 units via 28 bets (ROI = +19.8%) The performance was disappointing when two betting angles recommend betting a given team, but things went pretty well when 3 systems or more supported the same team. 2- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the odds If the odds were... Up to -110 (i.e. 1.91 in decimal format): -6.98 units via 46 bets Between -110 and +105 ("Even money plays"): +3.11 units via 35 bets Between +105 and +130 ("Small dogs"): +13.69 units via 86 bets Between +130 and +160 ("Moderate dogs"): +9.72 units via 92 bets +160 or more ("Big dogs"): +4.12 via 94 bets As suspected, betting favorites didn't do well. All NHL system plays this season: +23.66 units via 353 bets (ROI = +6.7%) If we had focused on underdogs only (the last three categories): +27.53 units via 272 bets (ROI = +10.1%) I hope you enjoyed those breakdowns! Have a nice day! Professor MJ
  4. Here is a video for my Tuesday, Jan. 14 NHL picks, if you're interested...
  5. NHL System Picks for Tuesday January 14th The super hot streak ended with two lost plays last night. Let's roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track! RECORD: Bets won = 71 Bets lost = 78 Profit = +12.79 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 5 STARS = Wild (@ +160 or 2.60 odds, at Penguins) 2 STARS = Kings (@ +240 or 3.40 odds, at Lightning) 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ +130 or 2.30 odds, vs Bruins) 2 STARS = Avalanche (@ -141 or 1.71 odds, vs Stars) 2 STARS = Predators (@ -116 or 1.86 odds, at Oilers) 1 STAR = Sabres (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Golden Knights) 1 STAR = Canucks (@ +117 or 2.17 odds, at Jets) The Minnesota pick is based on the following three betting angles: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup". Here are the details behind the latter strategy: "Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format." Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets. In this case, Minnesota is undergoing a three-game losing skid, while Pittsburgh is riding a three-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Wild are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight! Best of luck! Professor MJ
  6. NHL System Picks for Monday January 13th RECORD: Bets won = 71 Bets lost = 76 Profit = +14.79 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 5 STARS = Ducks (@ +205 or 3.05 odds at 8:15 am with MyBookie, at Blues) 1 STAR = Hurricanes (@ +121 or 2.21 odds at 8:15 am with Pinnacle, at Capitals) The Anaheim pick meets the criteria of three betting angles at a time: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup." Best of luck! Professor MJ
  7. Written January 9rd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) The picks went 3-1 last week. Let's stay on the winning track! Minnesota Vikings +7 or San Francisco 49ers -7 ? The 49ers got a much-needed bye week, thanks to a goal-line stand in the final moments of last regular season game against the Seahawks. The additional rest will allow San Francisco’s defense to get a boost, with the return of Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. Let’s face the reality: the Niners defense did not dominate nearly as much in the second half of the season. In the first seven games, San Francisco’s defense allowed an average of 11 points per game. That number exploded to 26 points per game during the final nine contests. Part of this steep raise can be attributed to the strength of opposition, but we’re still talking about a huge spike! The weakest link on the Niners defense is when it comes to stopping the run. They finished 17th in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. The bad news is Minnesota excels at running the ball. Dalvin Cook looked fast and fresh last week in New Orleans after sitting out the last two regular season games. Both quarterbacks finished with similar passing completion rates, passing yards and TD passes. The one difference lied in the number of interceptions thrown: 13 for Garoppolo versus just 6 for Cousins. I was impressed with Minnesota’s defensive line last week. They pressured Drew Brees all game long, and pretty much shut down the running game (except some unconventional runs by Taysom Hill, which is unlikely to happen against the Niners). Both teams have a well-balanced attack and a stout defense. I expect a hard-fought game, where the Niners will come on top by a close margin. For this reason, I’m taking the Vikings +7 points in San Francisco. Tennessee Titans +9.5 or Baltimore Ravens -9.5 ? The Titans defeated the defending Super Bowl champions last week by beating the Patriots 20-to-13. The line for this game opened at 10, but dropped to 9.5 since then. Let me tell you right away that I’m going with the Ravens laying 9.5 points. It’s easy to get excited over the great win by Tennessee last week, and the amazing performance by running back Derrick Henry. However, don’t forget the Titans got a 9-7 record this year, compared to 14-2 for Baltimore. Tennessee lost games against the Jaguars, the Broncos and the Panthers this season. They can be great at time, and bad at others. I’m betting it will be an off day for the Titans this weekend against a Baltimore team that is riding a 12-game winning streak. Did you know Ryan Tannehill led the league in passer rating? Still, for some reason I don’t trust him too much. Against a stingy pass defense last week, he struggled quite a bit. He completed just 8 passes out of 15 for a total of 72 yards. That’s not reassuring. The Ravens will focus on stopping the run, and dare Tannehill to beat them. I don’t think it’s going to end well for the Titans. These two teams met in Tennessee last season. I know the rosters were fairly different, but the Ravens won 21-0, a game in which Derrick Henry rushed for just 21 yards on seven carries. The Ravens finished the season with more than 200 rushing yards per game on average, a feat that had never been accomplished before. Lamar Jackson showed he can throw too; over his last eight games, he threw 25 touchdown passes versus a single pick. That’s impressive! One final telling statistic for you: the Ravens beat their opponents by at least 10 points in eight of their final 10 games. That included meetings with some very strong teams. I’m betting Baltimore -9.5 points. Houston Texans +9.5 or Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 ? The Chiefs seem to be peaking at the right time. After starting the season with a 6-4 record, they concluded with six straight victories. All of them occurred with a margin of at least 7 points! Meanwhile, it seems difficult to trust this Texans’ team. They are very inconsistent, as shown by their playoff win against Buffalo last week. They started slow by trailing 16-to-0 and rallied to win in overtime. Also, their negative point differential of -7 during the regular season is a shame for a division champion! The revenge factor goes in favor of K.C. since Houston pulled off the upset at Arrowhead back in Week #6. The Chiefs led 17-to-3 after one quarter in this game; they won’t let them off the hook this time around. Both QBs threw for exactly 26 TD passes. However, Watson was the victim of 12 interceptions versus just 5 for Patrick Mahomes. Another key argument is the defensive side of the ball. Houston’s defense was not very good; they finished 28th in terms of total yards allowed per game. As a comparison, the Chiefs defense finished 17th in that category, but they improved dramatically over the second half of the season. Indeed, they allowed just 11.5 points per game during their last six games. Therefore, I’m going with the Chiefs -9.5 points. Seattle Seahawks +4.5 or Green Bay Packers -4.5 ? The final meeting of the weekend involves two fierce competitors at quarterback: Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Based on the point spread, it should be the closest game of the weekend. The Seahawks have been plagued with injuries at the running back position, and also on the offensive line. However, they might get a couple of guys back: Duane Brown and Mike Iupati. With “Beast Mode” getting accustomed to being back on the field, Seattle will try to mimic what the Lions did to the Packers a couple of weeks ago, a game in which they racked up 171 rushing yards. I’m going to take the Seahawks and the points in this game, even though Seattle is 0-5-1 in their last six meetings at Lambeau Field. To me, the Packers passing offense relies too much on Davante Adams. Seattle seems to have more weapons with Tyler Lockett, Jacob Hollister and the emergence of rookie D.K. Metcalf, who looked like a beast in Philly last week! On Green Bay’s side, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling and Jimmy Graham are too inconsistent. The Packers have the better defense, though, especially with the Smiths (Preston and Za’Darius). Still, we’re talking about evenly matched teams. I can see this game ending on the final drive with either team moving on to the NFC Championship game. Under this setting, I’m taking the underdogs: Seattle +4.5.
  8. NHL System Picks for Friday January 10th 5th straight day with a positive gain, thanks for a 2-2 record including the HUGE upset by the Kings in Vegas. RECORD: Bets won = 71 Bets lost = 75 Profit = +15.79 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 2 STARS = Senators (@ -110 or 1.91 odds, at RedWings) The pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting system, which I explained in details yesterday. Have a great weekend, hockey fans!!! Professor MJ
  9. NHL System Picks for Thursday January 9th Another good day with a 2-1 record despite picking 3 underdogs. Last night's profit: +1.82 units. RECORD: Bets won = 69 Bets lost = 73 Profit = +14.64 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 4 STARS = Kings (@ +245 or 3.45 odds, at Golden Knights) 2 STARS = Panthers (@ -143 or 1.70 odds, vs Canucks) 2 STARS = Devils (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, at Rangers) 1 STAR = Ducks (@ +122 or 2.22 odds, vs Stars) "The Scoring Drought" betting system is backing two teams today: the Kings and the Devils. Here are the details of this strategy: "Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)." This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%). For example, the L.A. Kings lost their past two games by 2-1 and 4-2 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight. If you are interested to see the complete statistical study I ran in order to come up with those betting criteria, I made a video here. Cheers! Professor MJ
  10. NHL System Picks for Wednesday January 8th Pretty lucrative day last night by winning 4 bets and losing 2, despite picking five underdogs out of six picks. Yesterday's profit was 2.74 units. RECORD: Bets won = 67 Bets lost = 72 Profit = +12.82 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 3 STARS = Jets (@ +167 or 2.67 odds, at Maple Leafs) 3 STARS = Flyers (@ +115 or 2.15 odds, vs Capitals) 3 STARS = Kings (@ +124 or 2.24 odds, vs Stars) Both the Flyers and Kings are based on the exact same betting angles: "The Hot Scorers" and "The Porous Defense". Let me remind you quickly what the latter is all about: "Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. Bet AGAINST that team if they are on the road tonight." This system yielded a profit of 45.08 units via 332 bets over a nine-year period. Now, the Caps have scored 6, 5 and 4 goals in their three most recent matchups. Considering they are the visiting team tonight, we are fading them against Philly. As for the Dallas Stars, they scored exactly 4 goals in each of their three games. For the same reasons, we are fading them at Los Angeles. Best of luck with your plays! Professor MJ
  11. NHL System Picks for Tuesday January 7th Oh yeah! Both picks won yesterday, including the 5-star play where the Oilers pulled off a great upset in Toronto! RECORD: Bets won = 63 Bets lost = 70 Profit = +10.08 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 4 STARS = Senators (@ +267 or 3.67 odds, at Capitals) 2 STARS = Canucks (@ +187 or 2.87 odds, at Lightning) 2 STARS = Islanders (@ -119 or 1.84 odds, at Devils) 2 STARS = Rangers (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Avalanche) 1 STAR = Coyotes (@ +110 or 2.10 odds, at Panthers) 1 STAR = RedWings (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Canadiens) As of 7 am Eastern Time, only Bet365 has odds on Coyotes-Panthers and Canadiens-RedWings so the odds above came from this sportsbook. The Rangers pick is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle. There are two different sets of criteria for betting under this strategy, one of them being as follows: "Bet a home team coming off 3+ straight losses when facing a road team coming off 1-2 straight loss(es), only if the home team's money line is greater than 2.05 (which means we focus exclusively on underdogs)." This system led to a 44.95-unit profit through 141 bets over the course of nine seasons (ROI = 31.9%). Such plays are seldom seen, so let's take advantage of it tonight! Goooooood luck my sports investing friends! Professor MJ
  12. NHL System Picks for Monday January 6th RECORD: Bets won = 61 Bets lost = 70 Profit = +7.09 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 5 STARS = Oilers (at Maple Leafs @ +190 or 2.90 odds) 2 STARS = Islanders (vs Avalanche @ +109 or 2.09 odds) The Edmonton pick is rated 5 stars because it meets the criteria for betting of three systems at a time: "The Stingy Goalies", "The Blowout" and "The Hot Teams Matchup". Let's see how it plays out! Professor MJ
  13. NHL System Picks for Friday January 3rd RECORD: Bets won = 61 Bets lost = 69 Profit = +8.09 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 4 STARS = RedWings (at Stars @ +270 or 3.70 odds) Best of luck, folks! Professor MJ
  14. NHL System Picks for Tuesday December 31 RECORD: Bets won = 58 Bets lost = 68 Profit = +5.89 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems: 5 STARS = Wild (at +115 or 2.15 odds) vs Maple Leafs 2 STARS = Hurricanes (at -167 or 1.60 odds) vs Canadiens 2 STARS = Coyotes (at -105 or 1.95 odds) vs Blues 1 STAR = Blackhawks (at +165 or 2.65 odds) at Flames Happy New Year!!! Professor MJ