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Tennis Tips - September 12 - September 27


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I really agree on this one but I'll be biting on Marketa Vondrousovas performance so I'm taking her at 2.5 vs her countrywoman Karolina Pliskova who really aint anything close to a claycourt specialis

Just a bit of additional info to boost the Kovinic campaign. Yesterday Mertens withdrew from the doubles for reasons she gave as sickness. She also had a medical timeout yesterday that had to do with

Thanks a lot! I've been following this forum for a while now, I've read so many great analysises, and found so many many value bets, thanks to all the people posting here!

Hey everyone!

My bet for today would be on the match: Bouchard vs Badosa, at WTA Istanbul. 

Bouchard played excellent in the last months or so, I even won on her already many many times. Great service game, great returning, above average shot selection. (we've seen better from her obviously).

As from Badosa, she's playing extremely solid in Istanbul as well. She likes clay, she's hitting well, and she tested to be tough to beat ( Hercog)

In the match yesterday against Kovinic, Bouchard had several medical timeouts + interventions, pretty much seemed off in the last set( still won). I feel like the matches, tiredness start to take over slowly.

My recommendation would be a prematch bet on Badosa at betting sites, which in case of a withdrawal still pays the winner.  - 2.08 odds

Also I can see a world where Bouchard wins the first set, then gets swept,/withdraws, so if you have the opportunity to follow the match live, I would also take any bet over 3-3.5 odds on Badosa.

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3 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

Hey everyone!

My bet for today would be on the match: Bouchard vs Badosa, at WTA Istanbul. 

Bouchard played excellent in the last months or so, I even won on her already many many times. Great service game, great returning, above average shot selection. (we've seen better from her obviously).

As from Badosa, she's playing extremely solid in Istanbul as well. She likes clay, she's hitting well, and she tested to be tough to beat ( Hercog)

In the match yesterday against Kovinic, Bouchard had several medical timeouts + interventions, pretty much seemed off in the last set( still won). I feel like the matches, tiredness start to take over slowly.

My recommendation would be a prematch bet on Badosa at betting sites, which in case of a withdrawal still pays the winner.  - 2.08 odds

Also I can see a world where Bouchard wins the first set, then gets swept,/withdraws, so if you have the opportunity to follow the match live, I would also take any bet over 3-3.5 odds on Badosa.

It was not this world though. Badosa played scared whole game, + tilted way too easily.

Total domination by Genie in the first set.

Bouchard's level dropped massively in the second set, it was not the case to lose from Badosa though.

I do see her tired, next matches her winstreak should end.

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Angelique Kerber (-4) to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Siniakova has been dreadful both in the off-season and since the restart, while Kerber has shown some good tennis in the US Open and is still the way better player overall. Losing to Brady is no big deal given the form the American was in. Here, she's going to face a much weaker challenge and I fancy her to get through it with ease.

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I'm not even sure if this game will be played tomorrow, or it will be postponed, or Azarenka will even show up.

V. Williams to take a set versus Azarenka, WTA Rome - 1.61 at Bet365

It is being played on clay, Williams is already in Rome, got some days ahead to practice on clay.

Azarenka played the final yesterday, there's a long road from the US to Rome, if this game is played tomorrow, I don't see how Azarenka could rest, practice and prepare for this match whatsoever. Azarenka had a long long week.

If this game is not postponed, I'm even going in 2.30 odds on Williams at PartyPoker.

 

EDIT: It was postponed to 15, I'm taking the Williams +1.5 set only

Edited by rodxuabht
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ATP Rome:

Pella-Shapovalov: I did not understand the odds at all at this match, I am going 1.40 - Pella takes a set, and also 2.00 Pella to win the whole match.

Hell, Pella looked awful versus Lopez last week, but he did have some games on clay already.

On the other hand, I'm not even sure Shapovalov is 100% healthy, also the conditions do not favor him at all. 

 

(I also suggest Nishikori- Ramos, Ramos to take a set- 1.61 / Ramos to win 2.75.

Yes Nishikori is an awesome player. Yes, I do think he would beat Ramos any day on any court on any surface, not the case though. I watched his game versus Kecmanovic, he had his moments, overall, in the important moments, the lack of matches showed up huge. Ramos is not in form, but it's clay, if he has a chance, it's tomorrow. Great odds)

EDIT: Ramos lost 2-0,  Nishikori was the better player on the court 

EDIT2: Pella lost 2-0: Shapo was firing on all cylinders, the backhand went off several times. Next. 

Edited by rodxuabht
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A few matches I think have to be value bets on the clay tomorrow in Rome(all prices here are on bookmaker and using american odds):

1-Sevastova -230 over Paolini:  Sevastova has come into form lately while Paolini keeps losing to everyone she plays.  Paolini actually knocked off Kasatkina in Palermo a month ago (by the way who hasn't beaten kasatina lately??) so I started watching her a lot w hope.  Regardless, she kept letting me down.  I see no way Sevastova loses this and would even grab the game spread here.

2-Kerber -215 over Siniakova.  Siniakova should be playing challengers and Kerber is playing well and has a style that loves clay and long rallies.  This is pretty much a guarantee win.  Game spread of -4 is amazing EV too.

3-Bouzkova over Tomljanovic at -115.  Yes I know that Tomljanovic beat her a year ago but times have changed.  Tomljanovic isn't playing very well while Bouzkova is really looking great.  Go watch her recent match w Pegula (pegula barely won) at the US open.  Bouzkova fought hard and did very well.  She just loves longer rallies and can stay in the point forever while Toml cannot.

 

Any thoughts about these 3 or any others would be greatly appreciated.  I have posted a few overconfident winners on this site and for that I apologize.  You would never guess that I am actually a very winning bettor who made a ton on Cincy and the US open LOL.

 

Thanks!

 

mdlp

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1 hour ago, mdlp said:

A few matches I think have to be value bets on the clay tomorrow in Rome(all prices here are on bookmaker and using american odds):

1-Sevastova -230 over Paolini:  Sevastova has come into form lately while Paolini keeps losing to everyone she plays.  Paolini actually knocked off Kasatkina in Palermo a month ago (by the way who hasn't beaten kasatina lately??) so I started watching her a lot w hope.  Regardless, she kept letting me down.  I see no way Sevastova loses this and would even grab the game spread here.

2-Kerber -215 over Siniakova.  Siniakova should be playing challengers and Kerber is playing well and has a style that loves clay and long rallies.  This is pretty much a guarantee win.  Game spread of -4 is amazing EV too.

3-Bouzkova over Tomljanovic at -115.  Yes I know that Tomljanovic beat her a year ago but times have changed.  Tomljanovic isn't playing very well while Bouzkova is really looking great.  Go watch her recent match w Pegula (pegula barely won) at the US open.  Bouzkova fought hard and did very well.  She just loves longer rallies and can stay in the point forever while Toml cannot.

 

Any thoughts about these 3 or any others would be greatly appreciated.  I have posted a few overconfident winners on this site and for that I apologize.  You would never guess that I am actually a very winning bettor who made a ton on Cincy and the US open LOL.

 

Thanks!

 

mdlp

Hi!

Personally I agree with you on the first two listed matches.

Looking at Bouzkova - Aljatom, I'd simply recommend to skip this match. Neither of them has value on clay, its a 50-50%, depending on how they 'wake up', slowly sliding towards Bouzkova maybe but I would definitely skip the match. 

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I did not see this match earlier unfortunately.

Julia Göerges- Danka Kovinic  - Kovinic to win for 1.72 at most of the bookies ( I took it at partypoker)

Göerges played some matches after the covid long pause, but got a small injury in doing so. It will be her first match since 2 months, and her first match on clay in 2020.

On the other side, Kovinic is rolling right now. She has her ups and downs, she is obviously the less skilled player from the two, but she has matches in her legs. Given all the circumstances, I believe she takes this one and moves on to the next round of Rome.

 

🤑✔️✔️

Edited by rodxuabht
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Benoit Paire - Jannik Sinner

I felt so lucky last time, that I could experience all the beauty Paire brings to the tennis world. He literally got destroyed by Coric, tilted, tunked and then abandoned.

Then the news spread that he got the Covid-19. 

It will be his first match since then.  Sinner? Sinner is a way more serious player, young, obviously motivated to perform well.

As for now, I'll take Sinner wins 1.28 odds at bet365, but I recommend to watch this match live. The second you see Paire's serve broken, thus him tilting, definitely hit the handicap win of Sinner. (-4.5,-5.5,-6.5 and so on)

 

Edit: Won 🤑✔️

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You never know with the Paire and these odds against him is not a good idea imo. He can just destroy Sinner if he is in the mood. Sinner still not solid enough to be that kind of fav against top 50 + he is at home might feel pressure being such a fav to win.

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23 minutes ago, gg-77 said:

You never know with the Paire and these odds against him is not a good idea imo. He can just destroy Sinner if he is in the mood. Sinner still not solid enough to be that kind of fav against top 50 + he is at home might feel pressure being such a fav to win.

I cannot argue against this, cuz you are totally right. But

What are the chances of Paire getting back on track after a pause, facing an in average form Sinner, and dominates him right away, when he couldnt dominate anyone in the last 10 months? Yes, he could have 'that' day, and win 6-1 6-1, but looking at probabilities it's quite hard to become a reality. Tennis is a mental game as well ( Zverev could tell stories about this), the second the lack of matches show in Paire's game, he gets broken or he doubla faults, he's tilted, almost done. Hell, he even tilted on some random showmatch versus Popyrin, and got swept. Obviously one can argue in favour of Paire, or just skip the match.

I personally liked and still like the odds.

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My next bet tomorrow would be:

Bagnis - Rublev , Rublev to win : 1.30 odds

(partypoker again)

Nishioka - Kecmanovic : Kecmanovic to win: 1.40 odds

I don't necessarily think any of the players listed here will win super easily, with 2-0. If you follow any of the matches, I think it's a high chance that you will find yourself having the possibility to bet on either Rublev or Kecmanovic on bigger odds. I would definitely stake this if there's the chance.

Rublev is my hidden gem to win the whole ATP Rome. I loved and still love his gamestyle, especially on clay, where he beat Thiem several times as well. Bagnis is a decent player, in a pretty good form, I just believe there is a whole class difference between the two. Rublev trained hard for the last 1-2 months, I do believe he could have won versus Medvedev, it's time for him to prove something, here in Rome.

I was pretty doubtful about Kecmanovic. He comes from winning his first ATP tourney, and these are the moments in my experience where players loses their next match. But, the opponent is Nishioka. His height, his gamestyle does not add any pros on clay. His last game versus Pella? He hated every moment of it, the ball seemingly bounced in a way he hates it does. Kecmanovic might lose a set, but he comes out winning in the end.

 

Rublev to win ATP Rome - 51 odds seems to me an option to try. (It will be cash-outable when we arrive to quarters, semis, with a pretty nice profit). I think Nadal will be surprisingly out early, Djokovic is obviously always a threat to anybody, all in all, I'll push my luck here :)

 

Edit: Rublev won, Kecmanovic tanked the whole match, joke

Edited by rodxuabht
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Some recommendations from me:

Wawrinka- Musetti: I do not recommend prematch bets on this one, because if Wawrinka is healthy, he can 6-0 6-0 this one. If you got the time to follow the match - Wawrinka comes back from an injury, he said that he is felling good, etc. I don't exactly buy it, that he's 100%. The second you see he's struggling, or medical time-out, or he feels off, hit Musetti with the $$. 

Nadal - Carreno Busta: +6.5 handicap Busta, -bet365 - 1.83 odds: So Nadal's first official match since 03/2020 and they bring out these odds? I tend to disagree here. He will be affected as well by the lack of games in his leg. Would Busta be a threat to him in any ways on clay in normal situations? I don't think so. Is he a threat tomorrow? I do think so. I see a tiebreak easily, and after that the +6.5 is covered easily. 

Hurkacz - Rublev: Rublev to win - 1.30 odds - partypoker: If both were healthy, I still think Rublev would win 9.99/10 times this matchup. Hurkacz played injured yesterday vs Evans, only thing that saved him is that Evans plays like an ATP Nr 800 player on clay. Today against Bagnis, who actually played way better than I expected, Rublev took him out pretty confidently. Rublev advances. ( I recommend betting at a site which in case of withdrawal still gives you the dollars)

Yastremska - Anisimova: Anisimova +1.5 sets - or Anisimova to win 2.1 - bet365: I don't exactly know what's up  with Yastremska the last 7-8 matches. She struggles. Whether if its something mental, or she's injured, or she just doesn't care, she is definitely struggling and she's not playing Her tennis. I like Anisimova's chances in this match, she has super big ups and downs in a match, although I found her being pretty solid yesterday versus Vekic. Definitely worth a try looking at the odds.

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6 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Kerber was always a bad bet in hindsight. She just does not want to be there. The body language is very depressing. Same attitude in the Brady match replicated here. I sometimes wonder why players continue to play in this state when they can easily retire. Crazy!!

Kerber had more errors than usual but she didn't play horrific tennis.  What really happened is that Siniakova played like she used to back in 2017 and was lights out.  Very unexpected but this is tennis!

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, seems like I will indeed gear up for the upcoming weeks more than anything!

I think the transition from hard court + the US OPEN hangover has created a strange dynamic which requires watching all the matches without betting them.  To truly be a talented handicapper and bettor I think this is paramount at this time.  

MDLP

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