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  • 4 weeks later...

Cori Gauff to beat Elise Mertens at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Mertens lost here first match on grass, while Gauff is yet to play on the surface. This will actually be her second grass court season and the first one was fantastic, so chances are that she'll continue her RG form here. She lost against Krejcikova in the French Open, no shame in that. Her aggressive style is a better fit for the surface than what Mertens brings to the table, she only needs to keep her UE count low, just like Tomljanovic. It's a similar match-up, after all.

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Cid Subervi to beat Huesler at 5.31 with Pinnacle

Wimbledon Qualification

Subervi has never played a match on grass as a professional while Huesler has only played 4 matches on this surface and he has only won one of them (1-3). That victory was in Antalya in 2019 and it was against Ante Pavic (7-6, 6-7, 7-6), a doubles player whose best ranking ever on singles is 132 (2014). After that, he lost easily against Aragone (6-1, 6-4). The other 2 matches he has played on grass are from this year. He lost in 2 sets against Tiafoe in Nottingham and then he lost in a 3 set match against Peniston, a 25 years old player whose best ranking ever is 359. Subervi is 13-14 this year while Huesler is 11-18. It's true that Subervi has never played a match on this surface but Huesler has only played 4 and his results are awful. Both players' best surface is hard, they have a similar ranking and they only have played once before, that was in 2018 and Subervi won in straight sets (7-5, 6-2). IMO this match can go either way so I'm happy to take Subervi at odds above 5.00.

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2 picks for the Wimbledon qualification matches today:

EBDEN-BAEZ 2:0 sets @ 1.8 at betfair sportsbook and other bookies
COPIL-KUZMANOV 2:0 sets @ 1.5 at betfair sportsbook and other bookies

Both Ebden and Copil are excellent grass court players with good serve, many good wins on grass and few good matches this year already. Baez and Kuzmanov prefer clay, and slow surfaces in general.


 
 

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2 hours ago, WinningTipster said:


2 picks for the Wimbledon qualification matches today:

EBDEN-BAEZ 2:0 sets @ 1.8 at betfair sportsbook and other bookies
COPIL-KUZMANOV 2:0 sets @ 1.5 at betfair sportsbook and other bookies

Both Ebden and Copil are excellent grass court players with good serve, many good wins on grass and few good matches this year already. Baez and Kuzmanov prefer clay, and slow surfaces in general.


 
 

I would have preferred the win in both cases regardless of odds. Yes both are very good grass-courters who are by no means untouchables. Ebden normally relies on his very powerful serve and I do not think that the serve is really in top working order at this moment, plus he withdrew recently while losing at Nottingham. His price has been fluctuating between 1/5 -2/9 in the last 24hours. Worrying. I think he could drop a set to Baez who is one talent that might just be able to adapt to grass. Some of these clay-courters really do these days as things have really changed a bit with how players respond to surfaces.

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Hi guys,

I want to go either with Tsonga to beat Gerasimov or with Svitolina to beat Badosa. Both at ~ 1.63.

 

Tsonga has not been being in a good form so far but my reasoning is that he performs well on grass and Gerasimov is in a decline and, generally, not good on grass.

Svitolina lost her first grass match of this year. Her being pretty good on grass, Badosa having not outplayed any top player on this surface are my arguments for Svitolina.

 

Any ideas/advices on these?

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Anna Karolina Schmiedlova to beat Susan Bandecchi at 1.57 with Pinnacle

There should be a clear quality gap when these two meet in the Wimbledon qualies tomorrow and I think the price is worth taking. It's true that AKS plays here best tennis on slower surfaces, but Bandecchi has no record on grass so far in her career, while AKS has participated in the main event here a couple of times. Without success, that needs to be said, but she lost against Halep, Mladenovic and Puig in the three most recent R1s, which is hardly shameful. 

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Sorry to say this but going forward consider Tsonga finished. If you have watched him this year and as one of his biggest fans watching him in Barcelona and Lyon was watching a ghost.I doubt this is just a phase given his past injury problems.I was surprised to see him as a favourite today vs Gerasimov but going forward any battle VS anyone ranked in top 70 I'm betting against him on any surface.

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Wimbledon Qualies

Almost starting but I reckon Grieskspor should serve bot this one today. Also Maxine Cressy should beat easier competition today. Kokkinakis was a big favorite yesterday. Thoughts?

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Simona Waltert to beat Oceane Dodin at 4.00 with bet365

I have seen some matches from the young swiss player this year and she has impressed me. I saw her in the Altenkirchen ITF, a tournament played on indoors. She played really well there and she destroyed Golubic in the SFs (6-4, 6-2). She lost the Final against Tauson but she took a set from her. Before that she won an ITF tournament played in Manacor in January. In April she reached the SFs in 2 ITF tournaments played on clay and she beat decent players as Hesse, Lottner, Fett, Xiyu Wang, Minella and Barthel. She has beat Ruse easily in her first match here (6-2, 6-2) and she was at 3.00. It has been her first match on grass as a professional but it's important to remark that her best result in a GS as junior was in Wimbledon 2017. She reached the SFs and she lost against Ann Li (7-6, 6-1). She has a really good record this year (29-11). Dodin also has a game that suits really well on fast courts but her record this year is bad (11-16). What shocks me is that she has lost a lot of matches being a huge favorite. Shinikova (6.50), U.Radwanska (4.00), Jia-Jing Lu (5.50), Kung (3.00), Grabher (3.00), Mrdeza (2.00), Hibino (2.20), Paquet (3.00), Stojanovic (2.60) and Rodionova (2.90) are some of the players that have beat Dodin this year. She has a good record on grass (17-16) but she never has passed the qualification here (2019, 2018, 2016 and 2015). The only time she played in the main draw here was in 2017 (she did not play the qualification) and she lost in the 1R. She has suffered too much in her first match here against Eva Guerrero (7-6, 6-3) despite being a huge favorite (1.11). These players met for the first time 1 month ago, in Strasbourg, and Dodin beat Waltert in straight sets (6-4, 7-5). I did not see this match but after taking a look at the stats I can say it was a hard battle. The only difference was that Dodin converted 5 of the 7 break opportunities she had while Waltert only converted 3 of the 10 break points she had. These players have some similarities. Both are tall players (1.80-1.83) who practice an aggressive style of playing but Waltert's record this year (29-11) is much more impressive so I think Dodin (11-16) shouldn't be with these odds.

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Alexander Bublik to beat Lorenzo Sonego at 1.88 with Pinnacle

Bublik seems to be enjoying himself this week and his playing style is great for grass courts. Plenty of slices, plenty of variation and a bit of madness thrown into the mix. The surface at Eastbourne can produce some sick bounces as well and Sonego doesn't have the physique and style to deal with them. If Bublik is there mentally, he should win this way more often than not.

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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Alexander Bublik to beat Lorenzo Sonego at 1.88 with Pinnacle

Bublik seems to be enjoying himself this week and his playing style is great for grass courts. Plenty of slices, plenty of variation and a bit of madness thrown into the mix. The surface at Eastbourne can produce some sick bounces as well and Sonego doesn't have the physique and style to deal with them. If Bublik is there mentally, he should win this way more often than not.

Ah Bublik had a low percentage of 1st serve in wonder why. 😂

 

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