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Tennis Tips - June 6 - June 12


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  • 1 month later...

Let's move to the other side of the Atlantic and specifically to the Challenger of Orlando. There are two matches I like a lot and hopefully there will be no drama in neither one.

Christopher Eubanks to beat Aleksandar Kovacevic at 1.44 with bet365

Christian Harrison to beat Gonzalo Villanueva at 1.35 with bet365

Eubanks and Harrison are superior players than their opponents and I don't think they will face many problems. I expect two easy wins.

Good luck.

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Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Lorenzo Musetti at 1.68 with Pinnacle

Basilashvili tends to overperform in Germany, and he certainly has the better game for grass of the two. Musetti was even vulturing a clay Challenger in Italy last week, so he wasn't exactly getting ready for the surface. Still a significant talent, but this looks like a good spot to oppose him.

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Hi all, 

I am going to start a new thread, picking what I think are value picks for WTA. I'll try to price the matches when I can and get any selections up with lots of time. Paper trading for a few weeks, then I might start with some money and small stakes. 

Bets will be placed on Betfair when I start with money as I am limited at the soft bookies (not through my selections, but a service I used during covid), so should you follow at some point if it goes well, you'll probably get some nicer odds at the soft bookies if you check. 

I will try and do a short write up when I get time, for now it's just selections. 

Paper trading £100 bank with £2 selections for now as that is how I will start for real. 

Opinions/discussions welcome

 

Hertogensbosch

Blinkova to beat Minnen  - 2.32

Ann Li to beat Samsonova - 3.80

I have checked the morning matches. I will put them in a spreadsheet and post picks that way later on, how I did in the other thread in Betting Systems and Strategy. 

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Hi @Tennis Picks. Please stick to the weekly threads, we'll be more than happy to have you here! If you want a glory hunters thread, please refer to the right subforum, but I think you'll get more input here. I quite like Li to beat Samsonova at those odds, could be a nice upset if Samsonova misfires.

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41 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Or you can post in both!

Yeah i will do it here actually. I thought it would be harder to keep track of it all together in here with everyone else's picks but I can just post my spreadsheet with picks and write ups when I get time and move it over to the next week, it's not a problem. Here it shall be!

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Few morning picks. Mertens is several classes above Sanders and doesn't usually lose early in tournaments to players she shouldn't. She can have the odd mind mess but I make her a bit shorter than 1.36 so I will take that. 

Raducanu I make about 1.7 so going with Golubic here. Golubic can play on grass, Raducanu has struggled for form recently and can't win many matches in a row. She won't have the crowd like at Wimbledon behind her so I think 1.53 or whatever she is is a bit short. 

Linette leads the h2h here but two were from a long time ago. Kawa reached the final in Bonita Springs and got through qualifying here so has a bit of grass practice in the bag. Linette should take it but is a bit short that what I thought so going with Kawa.

Zheng vs Bucsa I make Zheng a bit shorter than 1.49 so taking that value. Bucsa come through qualifying  but struggled against Bains. Zheng looks out of form with recent losses but they're on clay and were to decent players, Sabalenka, Giorgi, Halep etc, She won in Lyon on the faster surface so should be more comfortable here. 

 

Screenshot 2022-06-07 101932.png

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13 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, I think that Raducanu will have the crowd behind her, it's England after all, but it won't be as big as at Wimbledon. Still like Golubic due to her grass prowess, though.

Yeah that's what I meant, just not a big crowd that really gets behind them. 

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1 hour ago, Tennis Picks said:

...........................................

Zheng vs Bucsa I make Zheng a bit shorter than 1.49 so taking that value. Bucsa come through qualifying  but struggled against Bains. Zheng looks out of form with recent losses but they're on clay and were to decent players, Sabalenka, Giorgi, Halep etc, She won in Lyon on the faster surface so should be more comfortable here. 

 

So it is Zhang, the 33 yr-old Chinese veteran and not the 19 yr-old Zheng.

I agree with you that Zhang will beat Busca and could be in straight sets as she does not like to play a 3rd set with younger players (than her) and will try to win it in straight sets.  Her stamina has deteriorated  and she is not as fit as before.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Robinnho said:

So it is Zhang, the 33 yr-old Chinese veteran and not the 19 yr-old Zheng.

I agree with you that Zhang will beat Busca and could be in straight sets as she does not like to play a 3rd set with younger players (than her) and will try to win it in straight sets.  Her stamina has deteriorated  and she is not as fit as before.

Typo on the name, I was trying to do them quite quickly, I will double check next time! Good point about 3rd sets. She won in 3 in the final in Lyon but the few 3 setters she had before that she ended up being comfortably beaten.

Edited by Tennis Picks
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Backing Tikhonova against Flipkens at 2.7. She should be fave imo. She's only played 3 matches on grass but two of those have been solid win in qualifying here. She's taking BPs quickly, not giving away too many either. Few losses recently but she's crap on clay. Before clay she won the title in Pretoria and SF in Irapuato. Flipkens is finished, the last time she reached a second round was Jan 2021 and even that was via LL after losing in qualifying. She hasn't played on grass for 3 years. I wouldn't put her as fave here. 

Rogers is too short for me so taking Diatchenko. Rogers is a class above but Diatchenko likes the faster surfaces. Rogers isn't in great form and has a 10-15 record on grass. Her poor movement can be exposed. 1.27 is too short for me. 

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20 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said:

Backing Tikhonova against Flipkens at 2.7. She should be fave imo. She's only played 3 matches on grass but two of those have been solid win in qualifying here. She's taking BPs quickly, not giving away too many either. Few losses recently but she's crap on clay. Before clay she won the title in Pretoria and SF in Irapuato. Flipkens is finished, the last time she reached a second round was Jan 2021 and even that was via LL after losing in qualifying. She hasn't played on grass for 3 years. I wouldn't put her as fave here. 

Rogers is too short for me so taking Diatchenko. Rogers is a class above but Diatchenko likes the faster surfaces. Rogers isn't in great form and has a 10-15 record on grass. Her poor movement can be exposed. 1.27 is too short for me. 

I will oppose Flipkens, I like what I read and thanks for the information. But Diatchenko must be one of the worst players I've ever seen... I don't even think she'll be competitive today. I feel like SR will get a comfortable win to be honest. 

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Viktorija Golubic to beat Heather Watson at 1.62 with Pinnacle

Golubic seemed to have a good shot at beating Raducanu today, but we all know what happened. Watson will be a big step down, in any case, and the Brit has been struggling to string two decent performances together pretty much all season long. Golubic should outplay her knowing how erratic Watson can be these days, and the odds aren't too bad for that to happen.

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Viktorija Golubic to beat Heather Watson at 1.62 with Pinnacle

Golubic seemed to have a good shot at beating Raducanu today, but we all know what happened. Watson will be a big step down, in any case, and the Brit has been struggling to string two decent performances together pretty much all season long. Golubic should outplay her knowing how erratic Watson can be these days, and the odds aren't too bad for that to happen.

Good shout, Watson as underdog is terrible. She won a couple when slight underdog, but look at her results when 2.2 or higher since the start of 2020, two and half years!

watson.png

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If any of you want any stats or data like above just let me know, only takes me 30 seconds. Any players, against certain nationalities, playing in certain countries, when they won or lost the first set (even by a set score), against certain rank, on certain surfaces, anything really. 

So want to see Mertens' results as underdog after she wins the first set? no problem, what about that but only on hardcourt? Easy. 

Just let me know and I will post it for you as quick as I can do it. 

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12 hours ago, Tennis Picks said:

Good shout, Watson as underdog is terrible. She won a couple when slight underdog, but look at her results when 2.2 or higher since the start of 2020, two and half years!

watson.png

I wish she'd been terrible as an underdog on that bottom line. I remember I'd backed Mertens to win that tournament and I couldn't believe it when I saw Watson had won - although at the same time I could believe it because I've seen so many odds even shorter than that being turned over. It's interesting - but I suppose not surprising - to see from that sample that's she's worth backing as a dog on grass. Obviously it's a tiny sample, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it persist over a bigger sample.

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4 minutes ago, Torque said:

I wish she'd been terrible as an underdog on that bottom line. I remember I'd backed Mertens to win that tournament and I couldn't believe it when I saw Watson had won - although at the same time I could believe it because I've seen so many odds even shorter than that being turned over. It's interesting - but I suppose not surprising - to see from that sample that's she's worth backing as a dog on grass. Obviously it's a tiny sample, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it persist over a bigger sample.

14-30 as a dog on grass. some of the matches are off the sheet at the bottom. 

watson.png

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2 minutes ago, Torque said:

Level stakes I mean. 14-30 can't be quantified as good or bad in betting terms without knowing the returns on the 14 winners against the 30 points of losers, for example.

I'll have to just total it, will be easy enough to put a formula in that counts Watson when in the winners side in the future.

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