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NFL - Week 5


PercyP
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Four games into the season and only one team is undefeated. Nothing is certain with American football.
This week four of my selections suffered defeat last week and I am expecting them to all bounce back.

(1) Two weeks ago the Rams were Super Bowl favourites. Losing to the Cardinals would have hurt but they can return to winning ways against the Seahawks. LA Rams -2.0 @ 10/11

(2) The Vikings at home will score more this week against the Lions. Vikings -7.5 @ 20/21

(3) Without  David Montgomery and the run the Bears will struggle. Raiders -5.5 @ 10/11

(4) The Titans will come good this week. Henry to star against the Jags. Titans -4.0 @ 10/11

(5) Last week, I stated the Giants are good against the run, but Dallas can throw it as well. Dallas -7 @ 20/21

Standard bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point roll up.

30 points staked. All prices Bet365.

 

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22 hours ago, PercyP said:

Four games into the season and only one team is undefeated. Nothing is certain with American football. Seldom teams get a 4-0 start. So it's not other then other years.
This week four of my selections suffered defeat last week and I am expecting them to all bounce back.

(1) Two weeks ago the Rams were Super Bowl favourites. Losing to the Cardinals would have hurt but they can return to winning ways against the Seahawks. LA Rams -2.0 @ 10/11 Careful with that one. Seahawks OC is former protege McVay and Seahawks O can match Cardinals O and exploit holes in Rams D the same way. Don't touch for me.

(2) The Vikings at home will score more this week against the Lions. Vikings -7.5 @ 20/21 Agree. How the hell is Goff with unknown WR winning from Cousins and Thielen/Jefferson? Blowout game Vikings.

(3) Without  David Montgomery and the run the Bears will struggle. Raiders -5.5 @ 10/11 Fields will be starter. Rookie isn't going to get away with a victory against the Raiders. Raiders touchdown+

(4) The Titans will come good this week. Henry to star against the Jags. Titans -4.0 @ 10/11 Agree. Henry should be able to demolish Jags D on his own. WR Chark out for Jags.

(5) Last week, I stated the Giants are good against the run, but Dallas can throw it as well. Dallas -7 @ 20/21 Line set correct.

Standard bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point roll up.

30 points staked. All prices Bet365.

 

I'm continuing with my "follow the money" system. I runned that system along with some other systems the first weeks, but this system is the only working system for now. I use sites to get a decent feel about the cash/ticket split. I.e. in week 3 Bengals (+3.0) had 30% of bets (tickets) against Steelers, but that generated 70% of cash just before kickoff. In week 4 WFT (-1.5) had 55% of bets (tickets) against Falcons, but that generated 86% of cash just before kickoff. With that info I'm going to analyze the game further. Why is the 'big money' on them? Do I agree? So far the system runs 4-0. 

Edited by Charon84
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This week, I am tempted by a few dogs.

Dolphins + 10.0 @ 10/11 Tampa are always happy with a win, don’t often blow teams away.

Colts +7.0 @ 20/23 is a great bet.

Eagles +3.5 @ 10/11 Eagles can match a Panthers team without McCaffrey

Bills +2.5 @ 20/21 will be close with Chiefs.

Browns +1.5 @ 10/11 how do you stop them?

Bet 0.5 point Canadian and 2 point Accumulator = 15 points staked.

All prices Bet365 

 

Edited by PercyP
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LA Rams at Seattle: 20 points on Metcalf to score a TD at 5/4 Hills.

I agree with the general view that he's closer to an even money shot, bit of value perhaps in anything at odds against.

Only fair to say that, after a great start in week one, it's all been down hill for my NFL betting. Will carry on selectively at least for as long as I remain up for the season.

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On 10/5/2021 at 9:11 PM, PercyP said:

Four games into the season and only one team is undefeated. Nothing is certain with American football.
This week four of my selections suffered defeat last week and I am expecting them to all bounce back.

(1) Two weeks ago the Rams were Super Bowl favourites. Losing to the Cardinals would have hurt but they can return to winning ways against the Seahawks. LA Rams -2.0 @ 10/11

(2) The Vikings at home will score more this week against the Lions. Vikings -7.5 @ 20/21

(3) Without  David Montgomery and the run the Bears will struggle. Raiders -5.5 @ 10/11

(4) The Titans will come good this week. Henry to star against the Jags. Titans -4.0 @ 10/11

(5) Last week, I stated the Giants are good against the run, but Dallas can throw it as well. Dallas -7 @ 20/21

Standard bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point roll up.

30 points staked. All prices Bet365.

 

First set of results in, 3 from 5. Rams got back to winning ways. Henry was unstoppable 3 TD’s for the Titans and the Cowboys beat the Giants. The two losers were the Raiders who were outplayed by the Bears and the Vikings who led 13-3 but could not see off the Lions (disappointing).

W3 L2 Staked 30 Points returned 18.21 points for a loss of - 11.79 points

YTD (ATS) W18 D1 L11 profit 80.75 points

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On 10/7/2021 at 11:46 AM, PercyP said:

This week, I am tempted by a few dogs.

Dolphins + 10.0 @ 10/11 Tampa are always happy with a win, don’t often blow teams away.

Colts +7.0 @ 20/23 is a great bet.

Eagles +3.5 @ 10/11 Eagles can match a Panthers team without McCaffrey

Bills +2.5 @ 20/21 will be close with Chiefs.

Browns +1.5 @ 10/11 how do you stop them?

Bet 0.5 point Canadian and 2 point Accumulator = 15 points staked.

All prices Bet365 

 

Second set of results

Well done to Colts, Bills and Eagles.  Browns gave all in a fantastic match. The Dolphins were blown away

3 Winners 2 Losers 15 points staked returns 8.96 points = loss of 6.04 points

YTD (ATS) W21 D1 L13 profit 74.71 points

 

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