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9/2 winner also £19.81 forecast.and the x double lands at 9/2 and 9/4.56 pts profit on a wet miserable Monday.10 points
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The Melbourne Cup is always one of my favourite races of the year and I've got a pretty good punting record in the race as well. I did miss out last year, but this year I have already put up the winner of the Caulfield Cup at 18/1 and the winner of the Cox Plate at 9/2 so we are well in profit for the Spring. Lots of UK and Irish interest not just with the horses currently trained here but there are plenty who used to be trained here. Here are my thoughts on the race Vauban - Was a big disappointment in the race last year only finishing 14th. Willie Mullins thinks that he was undercooked having not run since the start of August as they were trying to protect his handicap mark. In an effort to get him up to speed they gave him a strong gallop just before the race and Mullins thinks that is where he left his race. Whatever happened he didn't find anything when asked for an effort. This year he was 2nd in the Yorkshire Cup, 4th in the Gold Cup when he didn't stay, 3rd in the Curragh Cup, 1st in the Lonsdale Cup and then 2nd in the Irish St Leger. That means he has had 2 races more recently than he had last year. Stall 11 looks ideal and Buick should be able to get a nice position. Clearly has a leading chance. Buckaroo - This horse has massively improved this prep and is a much better horse than when trained by Joseph O'Brien. He come over here a year ago and was 7th in the King Charles III and 5th in the Champions Stakes before transferring to Chris Waller. There was a bit of promise in his runs in the Autumn which included a 3rd in the Ranvet Stakes. This prep though he has been top class. He won the Chelmsford Stakes over 1600m, then landed the Underwood Stakes over 1700m before only going down a head in the Turnbull to Via Sistina. That is clearly top class form given what she did in the Cox Plate. He then ran a stormer in the Caulfield Cup as he had got shuffled back and was 14th for most of the way, 13th at the 800m market and 8th with 400m to go. The winner was away and gone by this point, but he put a clear margin between himself and the rest of the field. The 2400m trip that day is the furthest he has gone in a race, but he clearly was doing some great work at the finish and if his trainer thinks he can run 3200m then I am not doubting him. I also wonder if part of the reason for not running Via Sistina was because he knows this horse has a superb chance. Stall 21 could have been a bit better, but that means he has drifted in the betting and for me he is the best horse in the race. Circle Of Fire - Another former UK trained runner who I put up to win the G2 Chairmans and G1 Sydney Cup in April. The Sydney Cup doesn't always work out that well regarding this race, but I initially thought that he could possibly be one to buck that trend (Makybe Diva the last to win both 20 years ago). The fact we know he stays is important, but I wanted to see more from him in the Caulfield Cup which I thought was just an average run. He settled in 10th and finished 10th which pretty much sums the run up. The other thing to add to the mix is he's drawn in 24 so all in all I can't have him as he just doesn't look in near the level he showed in the Autumn. Warp Speed - He was another horse that I was looking to perform well at Caulfield with a view for this race which looks on paper a much more suitable test. I thought there was no promise at all in the run though as he finished in 13th. The only thing to note is the track was a Soft 6 and that wouldn't have been ideal so he will get his ground here. We know he stays so that helps, but overall he wouldn't be for me. Kovalica - Been a long time since he last got his head in front and that came in the Queensland Derby in May 23. He's run the odd good race since, but I think this prep he looks to have improved. First up he was 3rd in a G2 over 1400m, then he was 4th in the G1 Epsom, before being the best of the swoopers in the G2 Hill Stakes. It was slightly surprising to see him go to the Cox Plate next, but whilst he clearly was never going to win I thought it was a promising effort in the circumstances. He's never been over this far, but he looks like he will stay and is capable of running a bold race for Chris Waller. Sharp 'N' Smart - Come over from New Zeland and 4 starts back was running over 1200m! Did win the NZ Derby though, 2nd in the Victoria Derby and was 4th in the Australian Derby. Didn't show a great deal when 13th in the Turnbull and then grinded into 3rd place in the Moonee Valley Cup last time. I suspect he will stay 3200m, but hard to think he has the class to win this. Just Fine - Ex Stoute horse who won the Group 1 Metropolitan at Randwick last September. His next win came a month ago in the G3 Bart Cummings over 2520m which is the furthest trip he has won over. Got a very good ride from the front that day to make all and things didn't go anywhere near as well in the MV Cup last time where he finished last. Bit odd why he ran in that as he was already in the race and going to be hard to make all here. Land Legend - Landed the St Leger over 2600m a year ago so you would think this trip should be fine. This prep he landed the Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick just beating Zardozi, but he finished in front of that one in the Caulfield Cup last time when finishing 3rd. That was a solid effort, but unless Buckaroo doesn't stay I can't see him reversing that form, but he is one with some sort of chance of hitting the frame. Absurde - Looked the winner last year for a fair way of the home straight before fading into 7th. It was still a very good run though and after going back hurdling and landing the County Hurdle at Cheltenham it has been all about getting him ready for a repeat bid. He was well beaten in the Irish St Leger, but there was plenty to like in his Chester Stakes win at the end of August. I love the booking of Kerrin McEvoy who has a great record in this race and I think he has a superb chance. He also gets to carry 0.5kg less than last year. Athabascan - Ex-French horse who finished a good 2nd in the Sydney Cup in April. Had various things against him in his first 3 starts this prep, but then landed the G3 St Leger at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. That was over 2600m and it did suggest that he could be ready to peak here. May not be quite good enough, but he is coming into this race in better form than the Sydney Cup winner. Will no doubt look to get a decent pitch from stall 2 and wouldn't be a total no hoper. Knight's Choice - 16th in the Turnbull, 14th in the Caulfield Cup and then 5th behind Sea King in the Bendigo Cup where it was a fair run, but all those runs sum up his remote chance for me. Okita Soushi - Plugged on into 11th last in the race last year having been at the back for most of the race when trained by Joseph O'Brien. Wasn't seen again until the end of August and the first 2 runs of the prep were nothing special. He then found his form to finish 2nd in the G2 Herbert Power at Caulfield over 2400m and then he landed the MV Cup in decent enough style beating former Derby winner Serpentine into 2nd. Could be peaking at the right time, but my main thought is the MV Cup isn't the right form race. Onesmoothoperator - Won the Northumberland Plate in June and was a solid enough 7th in the Ebor 2 months later. Most of his runs have been on the AW and his first ever turf victory was in the Geelong Cup. It was some performance as well as he beat Interpretation with ease. There are two ways of looking at that form. Interpretation was 6th in this last year so to beat him so easily was a good effort, or you look at Interpretations form since that 6th and think it didn't take much to beat a pretty weak field. It's probably somewhere between the 2, but I just find it hard to back a horse for the Melbourne Cup who is nearly 8 and who had a fair bit to find prior to Geelong. Obviously we know he stays and I think it would be going to far to say he can't win, but I think his price is unders now so I can't be backing him. Zardozi - James Cummings is the grandson of Bart who is the winning most trainer of this race and he was never afraid to run one on the Saturday of the Carnival and James has done just that with this horse. She was one of my picks for the Caulfield Cup after finishing 2nd to Land Legend in the Metropolitain and she ran a solid race at Caulfield to finish 4th. She won the Oaks a year ago over 2500m and is yet to run beyond that trip so stamina is a slight concern, but what really caught my eye was her run on Saturday in the G1 Empire Rose over 1600m. She was in the back pair for most of the way and was still 11th at the 400m marker, but then she just sliced her way through the field without seemingly to even be trying that hard and she ended up finishing 5th beaten 2.5L. That looked an ideal pipe opener for Tuesday and if she stays she could play a big part off a low weight. Sea King - If you are backing him then you will be hoping Hollie gives him a better ride than she did Bradsell at Del Mar on Saturday! He was one place in front of Onesmoothoperator in the Ebor when trained by Sir Mark Prescott. He bolted up in the Benidgo Cup last week, but that isn't usually the form need to win this. I just struggle to see a horse who was beaten in the Bell-Ringer at Ripon in July can then go and win the Melbourne Cup. Will need a fair bit of luck from stall 1 as well . Valiant King - Was 6th in the Caulfield Cup when trained by Joseph O'Brien last year and was 9th in the race this year now trained by Chris Waler. It was an OK run, but his only win came in a Navan maiden and stall 22 makes his life even harder. Fancy Man - Won at Eagle Farm over 2400m last October, but then bombed out in the MV Cup on his next start. Then wasn't seen until September when 5th and then was 3rd in the Herbert Power. Caulfield Cup run was OK in 6th, but he hasn't shown much in the 2 times he's been further than 2400m and doesn't look good enough. Interpretation - Ran a huge race in this last year as a 40/1 shot when finishing 6th and was blocked in the run as well. Has been steadily improving this prep and was 2nd to Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup. Not sure he's going to improve on that 6th though. Manzoice - Won the 2022 Victoria Derby, but has only been placed 3 times in 15 starts since. Was 14th in the Sydney Cup, 10th in the Bart Cummings and 7th in the MV Cup and looks to have a very tough task on his hands. Saint George - Ex Andrew Balding trained horse who should stay given he won over 2800m at Doncaster and then finished 2nd in the Queens Vase. That was in 2023 and he didn't run from Newmarket's July meeting that year until the final day of August this year. The first two efforts were solid enough, but he was then disappointing in the Bart Cummings when only 9th. He was then 5th in the MV Cup last time where again he rain OK. I'd imagine he was purchased with this race in mind, but I'm just nor sure he's going quite well enough at the moment and it could be one to keep an eye on for next year's race. The Map - Won the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m here in May which was a win and your in race for this. Given the fact she was already certain of a spot you would imagine she has been trained to peak for it even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more from her this prep. She was 5th in the Herbert Power and 6th in the Geelong Cup. Might be capable of running a decent race and is 2 from 3 at Flemington. Trust In You - The last one in and connections will be pleased the vets ruled some of the other runners out! The New Zealand raider was 6th in the Auckland Cup and is a G3 winner over 2400m. Last 2 runs have been solid enough being 4th behind Land Legend in the Metropolitan and 4th behind Athabascan in the St Leger. Struggle to see him being good enough. Verdict - Vauban, Buckaroo, Kovalica, Absurde and Zardozi are the ones that interest me the most as being possible winners. There are obviously a few form lines through the MV Cup and the Geelong Cup, but I'm not sure they are the right pieces of form and if they happen to be then I've got it wrong. I think Buckaroo is the best horse in the race as his form is rock solid coming into this. Obviously the unknown is if he will stay or not, but I am happy to take a chance that it will and that his turn of foot is going to better than anything else in the race. If he doesn't quite see out the trip then Absurde is the 2nd pick. He looked the winner last year until just fading in the last 200m. He looks primed to run a better race this time around and could become the first horse to win the County Hurdle and Melbourne Cup (yes that famous double!). Strictly speaking Zardozi wouldn't be an obvious one to reverse the Caulfield Cup form with Buckaroo or Land Legend, but I get the feeling that was part of the plan and that run on Saturday looked huge to me so she is the 3rd pick. Kovalica is the 4th pick as he might well have been crying to get back out to a trip that puts more of an emphasize on stamina and the Cox Plate run was solid. Vauban is the one that misses out, but if he went and won it wouldn't surprise. 1st Buckaroo @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred 2nd Absurde @ 8/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power 3rd Zardozi e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred 4th Kovalic e/w @ 20/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Bet365 and Betfred (5 places)8 points
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I'll have another bash at 5 year olds in NH races for November and December They have recorded a profit in 8 of the last 11 seasons (unfortunately last year was not one of them) Today's selection Plumpton 3.40 NON STOP 19/2 Ladbrokes8 points
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Racing Chat Monday 4TH November 2024
Fellcrawler and 7 others reacted to Robski for a topic
Monday ratings. 1.50 kemp.cuban tiger.110. 7/2. Having a great time.109. 9/1. 2.30.plumpton. Sacre coeur. 143.9/2 Whydah gally141.9/2. 3.05 .yellow star.153. 9/4 Irish Hill.149. 5/2. 2pts win.alm races.1/2 point r.f.c. I've done 4 x x doubles on both plumpton races .outlay of 8pts.8 points -
I have an added reason to be excited about Melbourne Cup day as one of the horses I have a share in, Imamanzor, is running in R2 on the card. I would love to have been at Flemington as it would have been a hell of an experience to have been at Melbourne Cup day as an owner. Anyway it will be my front room in the dark at 12.20am to cheer him on! Here are my thoughts on the runner. Vianarra - Not won in 12 starts although wasn't hopeless in the Caulfield Guineas when a fairly close 7th at huge odds. Didn't really back that up in the G2 Vase at MV over 2040m. Drop back in trip will suit but would be a surprising winner. Opening Address - Was impressive in his Maiden win at Wodonga although possibly flattered by being in the better ground. Was a solid 3rd in a BM64 on his first handicap start at Sale, but improved from that to run a stormer in the G2 Vase to finish 2nd in a 3 way go to the line. Stayed on well that day so possible the drop in trip might be against and the tempo was slow which helped given he settled in 2nd place and showed a decent kick. Certainly has a chance in this though coming back in grade. Statuario - Won back to back races at Cranbourne over 1400m and then a 0-64 over 1600m. Probably would have finished 3rd at Caulfield last time if he hadn't been tightened up, but certainly benefitted from being close to a slow pace as the front 4 were able to steel a march on the rest of the field. May not want the step up in trip. Hammett - Been running in NSW so far and was well beaten on debut, before an improving 6th at Newcastle and then a good win over 1600m at Warwick Farm last time. Certainly looks like another step up in trip will suit and he had a nice jump out at Flemington last week. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he was able to take the step-up to Listed class. Lavalier - Started off in NSW and won on 2nd start at Kambla Grange in July. Then came to Victoria to finish 3rd in a open 3yo handicap at MV and then ran a fair 5th over c&d. Was 5th again over c&d up to Listed level and was behind Red Aces who won the G2 Vase at MV so was in front of some of these. Was keen in blinkers last time in the Geelong Classic over 2200m and didn't really see it out because of that to finish 5th again. Blinkers go off and has place claims. Kenmare Bay - Another who has been in NSW so far. 5th and 3rd in first 2 runs and then up to 1600m won at Kembla Grange. Was then odds on to win a Class 1 (for winners of just one race) and was too keen out in front and helped set things up for a track record. Was ridden the complete opposite at Newcastle last time in a BM64 as he settled in last and flew home off a slow place to only go down 0.45L. Is up in grade here, but trip looks set to suit and probably better than he's been able to show the last twice. Lario - Won 1st up this prep at Geelong 2 months ago and then dropped away to finish 11th over c&d. Dropped down to 1400m in heavy ground at Caulfield and never got involved. Unlikely to be good enough. Plymouth - Had no chance from at Caulfield last time in the race Statuario was 4th as he settled in last place and as mentioned above they went no pace and trying to make up ground at Caulfield off a slow pace is basically impossible. He did well to get as close as he did to finish 5th. That came on the back of a good maiden win at Bendigo. Will need a good tempo, but the step up in trip and the longer home straight are certainly going to help. Hot Majesty - Needed 4 starts to get a win although probably not helped by the slow tempos. Landed a Kyneton maiden over 1875m when long odds on 2 weeks ago. Did have to dig deep to win though and I'm not sure he'd be up to this class just yet. Imamanzor - We do think a lot of him and that he will be up to winning at city level at some point. He won his maiden very easily at Warrnambool a month ago and than ran in the same Caulfield race as Statuario and Plymouth when finishing 9th. Now in theory he shouldn't reverse the form, but he got himself way too buzzed up before the race and was then very keen in the race so it wasn't a huge surprise he didn't finish his race off so I think he can get closer to the other two at least here. He dropped back in grade on Thursday and really should have won as he was slow away and couldn't get a run until too late and the winner who was on speed had already slipped the field. This is clearly a better race, but he goes up to 1800m and his jockey at Caulfield said he will have learnt a lot from that experience which he seemed to as he was much better behaved last week. Obviously Melbourne Cup day is going to be a whole new experience so hopefully he will be calm again. I'm not going to say he can win, but I do think his price is too big and he could sneak a price. Purler Patch - Didn't show too much in first 2 starts and then won at Bendigo on his 3rd. Led the field in the Vase at MV but ended up only in 8th. Not got the ideal draw to lead, but I imagine he will be front rank. Drop down in trip will probably help, but not sure he'd be good enough. Cecchetti - Yet to win in 3 starts although was 4th in a Listed Race at Morphettville in Adelaide 2 weeks ago. I'd imagine this race will be stronger and he might need further. Verdict - Whilst I will be having a small e/w play on Imamanzor and obviously want him to win, I am going to have two win bets against the field. I like the way Hammett is progressing and he looks like he could be up to this level. I also think Plymouth is better than he was able to show last time and could also take the step up to this level. I get why Opening Address is favourite, but he had the ideal set up at MV and he might not get that here. Hammett @ 6/1 with Bet365 Plymouth @ 18/5 with Bet365 Imamanzor e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred6 points
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Racing Chat Monday 4TH November 2024
BBBC and 4 others reacted to black rabbit for a topic
Mums Tipple 1 50Kem 1/40th of a pt ew 16/15 points -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
The Equaliser and 2 others reacted to Nigwilliam for a topic
3rd. + £14. + £443 points -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
The Equaliser and 2 others reacted to waggy for a topic
Result: Santorini Star 1st. Won £18.18 November profit to date £45.683 points -
Melbourne Cup
Brahmin and 2 others reacted to richard-westwood for a topic
Very very difficult to rate because of lots of unknowns .....can't say I have a degree of confidence as a result but I've input as much as I can and computer has rated Onesmoothioperator. 1215 9.6 Land legend. 1200 18.0 Okita sushi. 1189 5 PT wins top 2 for a bit of fun 😊3 points -
DPW Tour Abu Dhabi Championship 2024
fd1972uk and one other reacted to CakeCakeCake for a topic
I've shortlisted the below for this week's Abu Dhabi Championship - Min Woo Lee 33/1 - Sebastian Söderberg 94/1 - Laurie Canter 99/1 - Matthew Jordan 99/1 - Alex Fitzpatrick 129/1 - Brandon Stone 139/1 - Andy Sullivan 189/1 - Casey Jarvis 189/1 All to win - Betfair prices Dutching across all selections is around 10.5/1 Will review top 10 prices during the week Good luck on your bets this week!2 points -
Grand Sefton Handicap Chase
fd1972uk and one other reacted to The Brigadier for a topic
It’s the first time over the Grand National fences this season this weekend with the feature race being the 2M 5F Grand Sefton Handicap Chase and with the five day entries out tomorrow lunchtime I think there’s a bit of value to be had with the David Pipe trained King Turgeon. He’s currently 13lb out of the handicap but with a 7lb penalty for his very easy victory at Chepstow last week will be only 6lb wrong at present. That may also change if some of the top weights defect over the next two declaration stages. The six-year-old jumped superbly when winning last week over 3M 2F under Harry Cobden, coasting home to the tune of ten lengths. That was his first run since a wind operation and creeping in off of bottom weight can run a big race. He likes to front run and hopefully his slick jumping will be suited to this shorter trip on hopefully decent ground. I do know that he has schooled well over the purpose built National fences at Pipe’s base in Somerset and although this is a big step up from his last win he looks great each way value at 25/1 with MGM Bet. He’s beginning to ‘blue’ up today so I recommend an each way bet before tomorrow’s declaration stage. KING TURGEON 1 point each way @ 25/1 BetMGM 1/4 12342 points -
Melbourne Cup
yossa6133 and one other reacted to Tedthewolf for a topic
I always enjoy this great race alarm is set my bets are on and i really like my chances with a team of three that have a good draw all e/w with bet 365 bog 5 places. Main Bet 1.5 e/w ZARDOZI 10/1 2nd Best 1pt e/w SAINT GEORGE 25/1 Worth a wee nibble 0.5 e/w TRUST IN YOU 125/1 6pts invested2 points -
🐎 one of the great races that literally stops Australia ......so small stakes for us 5 pts EW 🤞 ............5 places on betfair Absurde 9/1 EW Okita Soushi 16/1 EW Land Legend 18/1 EW The Map 50/1 EW2 points
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There are some games that I think have an edge (Wolves was one of them) but generally the games are picked by the bookmaker. I agree luck has played a big part so far and I wouldn't expect to make more than a small percentage gain over the long term but it all adds up. Also there is interest in most games throughout the match.2 points
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Weekend Football Bets > 1st - 4th November
CakeCakeCake and one other reacted to Torque for a topic
Mbeumo first scorer at 9.50 with MGM looks worth an interest. Plenty tipping up Brentford and if that's right then it's likely they score first and in that case Mbeumo has to be a live runner.2 points -
Weekend Football Bets > 1st - 4th November
CakeCakeCake and one other reacted to harry_rag for a topic
With all 3 best priced with 365 I'd be tempted to cover the doubles and trebles on all 3 of them (if I could bet with the b*****s)!2 points -
Weekend Football Bets > 1st - 4th November
ThunderDan9 and one other reacted to harry_rag for a topic
Bonny value for Parma at 2/1 or better on the exchange. 3 in the other early games, Pellegri, Solbakken and Belotti at 6, 7 and 5.1.2 points -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
The Equaliser and one other reacted to Trotter for a topic
All 5 won with a nice drifter in the first race 5 four-fold winning accas today +159.632 points -
Copped 4 last night for a small loss, still just about up for the weekend. Nothing that stands out for the final game but gone for a boosted BB for an interest. Kansas win and Kelce and Hunt both to score a TD at 5.87. To be honest I was surprised to be offered 4.75 for just the TD scorer double given that their best odds only give 3.89 when multiplied. Paddy have it as a boost at just 3.75. With the boost I'm fairly confident this is better than fair.2 points
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Racing Chat Monday 4TH November 2024
The Equaliser and one other reacted to MCLARKE for a topic
AW selection Southwell 5.45 PRINCESS INGA2 points -
2 points
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Try something different ...... I've picked out 5 really short priced favourites with the hope of getting a four fold acca up ..... let's see how many let me down ! 12.50 Kemp - Santorini Star - Evens (not actually Fav at the moment) 12.58 Plu - Barnabool 1/3 1.58 Plu - Prince Imperial 8/13 2.20 Kemp - Military Academy - Evens 2.50 Wolv - Tawajjah 1/4 hoping the 3 odds on shots all win and at least one of the Evens ......... prices skybet 5 X £4 four-folds2 points
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
The Equaliser and one other reacted to waggy for a topic
Kempton 12.50 £20 Santorini Star @10/11 William Hill2 points -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
The Equaliser and one other reacted to silver fox for a topic
7.45 Southwell: Prince of Bel Lir @ 100/30 (WHill)2 points -
Tennis Tips - November 4 - November 10
amity and one other reacted to CzechPunter for a topic
Qinwen Zheng to beat Elena Rybakina at 1.53 with Bet365 Rybakina looked rather frail against Paolini, and she's not in a good spot mentally as far as I know, also some slight physical problems if the reports are correct. Zheng is ambitious, a lot of match practice under her belt as well, this is an excellent opportunity to finally get that elusive win over Rybakina.2 points -
Midweek Football Bets > 5th - 7th November
CakeCakeCake reacted to harry_rag for a topic
Another busy midweek with lashings of UEFA competition action. On Tuesday the Champions League sees Celtic entertain RB Leipzig and Liverpool host Leverkusen while Man City travel to Sporting Lisbon. Real Madrid v Milan is perhaps the tie of the night. There are also half a dozen Championship games and a couple in League 1 along with games in the National League and EFL Trophy. Wednesday sees the other half of the CL games with Villa travelling to Brugge and Arsenal away to Inter while Bayern v Benfica and PSG v Atletico Madrid also catch the eye. There's a solitary Europa League game and 5 more in the Championship. Spurs, Man U and Rangers fly the flag in the Europa League on Thursday with Chelsea and Hearts in Conference League action not to mention Shamrock Rovers v TNS. West Brom play Burnley in the final Championship midweek game. So, plenty to go at on bonfire night and beyond. Let's see if we can find a few decent winners!1 point -
I quite like St George myself at around 25/11 point
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Wildgarden reacted to MCLARKE for a topic
You can't beat those short priced favourites I hope @Zilzalian is taking note !1 point -
DAILY LUCKY 15
The Equaliser reacted to LEE-GRAYS for a topic
1 point -
My gut says otherwise but Mbeumo is worse value tonight than in any of the last 10 games where he's in my data. He was a bet in 5 of them and not far off in the rest but I'd need better than 3/1 tonight for him to be an anytime selection. I don't dislike the bet by any means but I'd favour 11/2 for Jimenez if I had a free tenner to chuck at the market. You get some decent boosts with MGM but I notice this one's not too far off the exchange price. This could well be yet another game where both Wissa and Mbeumo find the net but my instinct isn't quite strong enough to override the numbers so I'll stick with the Fulham main man. Aspas for Celta Vigo at 4. Would be a bet at 3.7 or more for me and the absence of Borja Iglesias doesn't harm his prospects.1 point
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Weekend Football Bets > 1st - 4th November
CakeCakeCake reacted to harry_rag for a topic
Hackett (Hackett-Farichild in places) looks big at 7/2 in the FA cup game.1 point -
Going well though dare I suggest there may be a degree of good fortune in the returns so far! I've looked at a few games and compared the odds to what you'd get by dutching 1-1 and 2-2 on the exchange and the effect of the 25% boost seems to be that you end up with about a fair price. For those two games you'd get 5.38 and 5.52. On that basis there may be an edge from the combination of the boosts and free bets but it might not be quite as spectacular as the current returns. Unless you've cracked it in terms of picking games that are more likely to end up draws than the market thinks of course!1 point
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DAILY LUCKY 15
LEE-GRAYS reacted to The Equaliser for a topic
Lucky15Ref: 602361211 4 Selections 9. Uther Pendragon - 18/1Winner - 16:30 Wolverhampton 7. Optician - 7/1Winner - 17:00 Wolverhampton 10. Port Noir - 11/2Winner - 17:30 Wolverhampton 1. Split Elevens - 4/1Winner - 18:30 Wolverhampton Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 404.951 point -
DAILY LUCKY 15
LEE-GRAYS reacted to The Equaliser for a topic
Lucky15Ref: 602358589 4 Selections 7. Starfighter - 33/1Winner - 15:32 Kempton 2. Lequinto - 8/1Winner - 15:55 Wolverhampton 1. Black Smoke - 9/2Winner - 16:30 Wolverhampton 1. Mykonos St John - 15/2Winner - 17:30 Wolverhampton Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 1,080.581 point -
DAILY LUCKY 15
LEE-GRAYS reacted to The Equaliser for a topic
Lucky15Ref: 602355352 4 Selections 1. Siempre Arturo - 5/1Winner - 14:57 Kempton 5. Meisterzinger - 14/1Winner - 15:32 Kempton 9. Al Ameen - 13/2Winner - 16:02 Kempton 6. Plumette - 10/3Winner - 18:30 Wolverhampton Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 253.821 point -
Naps - Monday 4th November
Wildgarden reacted to adamross for a topic
1 pt win Kurakka 33/1 Bet365 1.20 Kempton1 point -
Man Utd profit £46.21 4 from 9, + £ 183.58 FULHAM 43/10 + 25% £10 CELTA VIGO 18/5 £5 free bet1 point
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
black rabbit reacted to LEE-GRAYS for a topic
Day 51 7.15 Southwell kittens dream 66/1 £10 e/w bet3651 point -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Wildgarden reacted to Nigwilliam for a topic
Wol 355 JoJo Rabbit 12/1 £10 ew bet3651 point -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
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Wolverhampton 5.00 LORDSBRIDGE BLUE £20 win BSP1 point -
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Naps - Monday 4th November
Wildgarden reacted to silver fox for a topic
4.20 Hereford: The Big Man @ 15/2 (WHill)1 point -
Nice to see someone discussing this. I would love to have some more discussion here about matches.1 point
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NFL Week 9 Bets
MinellaWorksop reacted to bymatrix for a topic
Couple of FG strategy bets this week in the always difficult to call divisional games , loser at Giants and a 13/2 winner in Buffalo.1 point -
Tennis Tips - November 4 - November 10
amity reacted to CzechPunter for a topic
Well, perhaps start a discussion yourself! Tough to see good bets in this part of the season, at least for me, but I'm happy to discuss any match, especially a WTA one!1 point -
Euro Challenge Tour Grand Final 2024
harry_rag reacted to MinellaWorksop for a topic
Good effort Cake. A lot of young unexposed players learning their trade on the Challenge Tour, so to identify a true contender in Rasmus is something to be applauded. DPWT action returns next week with the Abu Dhabi Championship.1 point -
Euro Challenge Tour Grand Final 2024
harry_rag reacted to CakeCakeCake for a topic
Rasmus finished 2nd, 1 behind the eventual winner 3 bogies in the final day didn't help.1 point -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
The Equaliser reacted to Nigwilliam for a topic
1st. + £70. Nov. + £301 point -
Wycombe v York The home side are flying in League 1 this season which is why I initially didn't put them up as a bet. They are 2nd just behind Birmingham and ahead of Wrexham and lost just twice. Interestingly though they play Stockport on Tuesday night in what will be a much bigger match for both sides. If I am opposing Stockport because they will likely rest players, then it makes sense to take Wycombe on as well because there is surely a good chance they will do the same thing. We know what York are capable off and it is a similar bet to the FGR one really. I noticed York were initially put in as big as 16/1 and whilst they are shorter than that now they are still big enough to take a chance with. Price from Friday 11am York 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)1 point
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Crewe v Dagenham & Redbridge Dagenham are nearly always worth opposing away from home and in the league they have only managed to win at Hartlepool on their travels this season. In their last 2 away games they have created very little at Yeovil and Oldham on Saturday. They did win at Leiston in the previous round, but then they ought to have done. Crewe are having a great season in League 2 and have won 7 of their last 10 league games just losing the once. After losing 5-0 to Chesterfield in their opening league home game they are unbeaten at home and I think they look a good price to knock out Dagenham. Hednesford v Gainsborough The prices for this game are way out for me. I accept that Hednesford are under performing a little in the league, but their squad is very good for the level and for me better than their opponents. I think it is fair to say their wage bill is rather higher. We were unlucky not to get paid out on them in the previous round against Gateshead and then they went and won the replay 3-1. Gainsborough had a great result themselves as they were also unlucky not to win the 1st tie against Boston and then beat them 4-0 in the replay. Their league form isn't great having won just 3 games and they are currently in the relegation zone albeit with games in hand because of their cup runs. Ultimately this is a great chance for either side to make the 2nd Round, but Hednesford should almost be favourites for me and at the price they rate a cracking bet. Stockport v Forest Green Used to write about this match as a league game a few years ago, but the home side are now in League 1 and having a good season losing just twice in the league although their first win in 5 games did come on Tuesday against Reading. Stockport lost to Aldershot in a replay in the Cup last season and I just wonder if we will see a few first team players rested. Forest Green are one of the title contenders this season so for them to be such a big price seems a bit over the top for me so happy to take a chance they can cause an upset. Woking v Cambridge United Woking did create much more against Forest Green last weekend although obviously the fact FGR had 10 men for a lot of the game helped. They host a League 1 side here and I can't believe Cambridge are a bigger price to win than FGR are. That doesn't make any sense to me. To be fair if this game had been a couple of weeks ago then Cambridge would have been coming into this without a win in the league, but then they beat Wigan, Stevenage and Burton. For me they will surely be looking to continue that good run of form and keep the confidence high so they should be too strong for Woking. Worthing v Morecombe Morecombe have won just 1 league game all season and I'm sure Worthing are eyeing up a possible upset here. Their form has been strong in the league of late and whilst there are 2 levels between the sides at the moment, you wouldn't go a huge price about it being a league game next season. With Worthing having a 3g pitch to add into the mix it looks a possible for an upset. Boreham Wood v Leyton Orient This game is on Sunday at 2pm and I think the home side can possibly have another FA Cup run. They haven't always been as good as I thought they would be this season, but the change back to the former manager does seem to have brought about improvement. It's just been 1 win in 7 for Orient in the league and whilst it is still a tough ask for the home side I do think there is a bit of value in the price. Treble Bradford, Grimsby and Accrington are the 3 sides I like at odds on to beat Aldershot, Wealdstone and Rushall respectively Prices from Thursday 11am Crewe 2.5pts @ 9/10 with Bet365 (Evs with William Hill and take up to 4/6) Forest Green 1pt @ 10/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (11/1 with Hills and take up to 13/2 Cambridge 4pts @ 19/20 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 4/6) Worthing 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 9/4) Boreham Wood 1pt @ 13/2 with Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred (take up to 9/2) Bradford/Grimsby/Accrington 1pt treble @ 2.91/1 with Bet365 Hednesford 1pt @ top price (take up to 7/4)1 point