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Ascot 1.15 The 2M Group 2 Long Distance Cup kicks things off on Champions Day at Ascot where the ground is likely to ride very testing. Trueshan is bidding for a record breaking fourth win in the race and should go well but she’s not been up against one as smart as Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios who looked set to take the staying division apart this season until meeting with a setback earlier in the season. He badly needed his run back from a 344 break when a creditable runner up in the Irish St Leger and with that run behind him looks the bet here under Ryan Moore. KYPRIOS 2 points win @ 11/8 William Hill Ascot 1.50 The Group 1 Champions Sprint run over 6F is next up and again we have a warm favourite here in the shape of Ralph Beckett’s Kinross. He was a cosy winner of this last years and with conditions to suit can give Frankie Dettori a farewell winner on his last (possibly!) Champions Day. Mill Stream is two from two on soft ground and in a first time tongue tie can run well each way with an additional place with William Buick in the saddle. KINROSS 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet Victor MILL STREAM 1/2 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Ascot 2.25 An open looking Group 1 Fillies & Mares Stakes run over 1M 4F has attracted fourteen runners. Many can be given chances but it’s the Aidan O’Brien trained Jackie Oh that takes my eye. Proven on soft/heavy ground with form figures on that terrain reading 121 she appears to be still on the upgrade and ran her best ever race when going down by just a neck in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day. She steps up to 1m 4F for the first time here with her half siblings staying this trip so may even improve for it. One of the other Irish challengers, Above The Curve can also run well for Joseph O’Brien. JACKIE OH 1 point win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes Ascot 3.05 Eleven top milers line up for the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Paddington must hold an excellent chance although he’s pretty short for a horse who’s actually held on York running by Nashwa. John Gosden’s likeable filly has form in very soft ground and holds a good each way chance although the bet here for me is the French challenger Big Rock. The French have an excellent record in this race over the years winning three of the last 9 renewals. Christopher Head’s three year old has smart form chasing home not only Inspiral at Deauville but also Ace Impact in the French Derby as well as hammering Horizon Dore by 5L on heavy ground. He’s a front runner and although it’ll be tough leading all the way here he looks good each way value. I’m a big fan of Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra but didn’t like his comments in the press this week about her not really been suited by soft ground (despite having good form on a wet surface). BIG ROCK 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Ascot 3.45 The most valuable race on the card is the 10F Group one Champion Stakes which has attracted nine runners. Likely favourite Horizon Dore looks skinny enough to me for a horse that’s never raced in a Group 1 and my pick here is Roger Varian’s King Of Steel who can give Frankie Dettori a double on the card. Very soft ground shouldn’t worry him and his form this season is as good as anyone’s in the field. Last year’s winner and third Bay Bridge and My Prospero have claims but there is a big outsider I can’t resist a token each way bet on. That’s Aidan O’Brien’s Point Lonsdale who will be ridden by Ryan Moore and is unbeaten in four runs on soft ground. It’s not often you get to back a O’Brien and Moore horse at such a big price and although he may not be good enough he may stay on into a place. KING OF STEEL 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365 POINT LONSDALE 1/2 point each way @ 28/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Ascot 4.25 A maximum field of twenty for the one mile Balmoral Handicap and as usual it has a very open look about it. Top weight Migration trained by David Menuisier will have to put up a near Group performance to take this but is two from two on heavy ground and goes very well fresh as he showed when winning the Lincoln on his re-appearance at Doncaster back in March. He had a few of today’s opponents behind him that day and despite a 6lb rise in the weights from a middle draw should be very competitive. There are obviously plenty of others that one can make a case for but I can’t resist a small stakes each way saver on George Boughey’s Raadobarg who like Migration is an out and out mudlark who hasn’t won since taking the Irish Lincoln in March 2022 but has kept listed or group company since. He actually ran at this meeting last year but in the Group 1 QE II when finishing eight of 9 (beaten 5 1/2L) at 80/1. MIGRATION 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 RAADOBARG 1/4 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

Hi again and good luck to all with Ascot Champions day racing.......hopefully our luck has changed since returning from the Sunshine as hit nicely yday with 3 big EW wins 👍 1.15 Trueshan 5/2 Trawlerman 9/1 EW WON 1.50 Rohaan 9/1 EW (Daily Nap ) Sandrine 8/1 EW Vadream 12/1 EW 4 places betfair / b365 2.25 Jackie oh 4/1 Blue Stocking 6/1 EW 2nd Rue Boissonade 8/1 EW ( 5places b365 bet boost) 4 places betfair / b365 3.05 Tahiyra 4/1 Big Rock 8/1 EW WON Paddington top 3 place @ evs betfair long 3.35 Doom 6/1 Prepense 12/1 EW 3rd ( haggis & stoute UK runners ) 3.45 Horizon Dore 9/2 Via Sistina 6/1 EW 2nd 2 WINS 🏆 🏆 and 3 EW places soooo made nice profit 👍 💷 ......... Mrs Brahmin 3 selections in lucky last.... Docklands 6/1 EW 3rd 5 place Bopedro 14/1 EW 4th 5 places Coeur D'or 20/1 EW ( 6 places b365 bet boost )

Saturday 7.15am sees the latest running of the Caulfield Cup. There will be a few familiar names and Joseph O'Brien has two runners and the Crisford's run West Wind Blows. Here are my thoughts on the runners. Gold Trip - Just got headed in the final strides in this last year, then finished 9th in the Cox Plate before going on to impressively win the Melbourne Cup. He won for the first time since when putting in a superb performance to beat a few of these in the Turnbull Stakes a couple of weeks ago. Has to give more weight away here, but if he's in the form he was a couple of weeks ago he might be capable of doing it. Without A Flight - Only finished 13th in last year's Melbourne Cup, but then went up to Queensland in May/June and won a G3 and a G2 in easy style. Had a break and then returned in the G1 Underwood last time over 1800m here a month ago and was an eye-catcher when finishing 6th behind Alligator Blood who won again last week. The step up to 2400m from 1800m is going to be ideal for him and he looks a big player. Breakup - As they have shown so often in recent years, the Japanese horses have to be respected wherever the go. Was well beaten by Equinox last time at big odds although clearly not a shock as he was big odds that day. His last win came over 2500m in November at G2 and he was 4th in a G1 over 3200m in April. He certainly has to be respected. Montefilia - Had started to become disappointing, but she's been good in her last two starts finishing 3rd in a G3 at Randwick and then won the G2 Hill Stakes last time at Rosehill. She did it well that day given she didn't get a gap until 250m to go. Probably needs to find more again here, but at least she is in form. Francesco Guardi - Certainly needs this trip as he proved last year when finishing 2nd in the Bart Cummings over 2510m and then winning the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Started off over 1400m this prep then up to 1600m and then 2000m when 7th in the Turnbull. Has been running solidly and clearly be building up to this. West Wind Blows - Simon & Ed Crisford have sent him down after a very solid summer over here including a G3 win at Longchamp, 2nd in the Hardwick and a respectable run in the Eclipse. Was a huge run first up in the Turnbull to finish 2nd to Gold Trip and on that form he is weighted to reverse the form. I liked the way he kept finding to hold on for 2nd and he should improve from that run. He's drawn in 2 so Spencer will need to get him settled close to the pace otherwise the concern is he wont be able to get a run. If he does that he ought to be going very close. Soulcombe - Another ex-UK horse and looks to have an obvious chance. Was really impressive first up in a Listed Race here over 1700m and then has run really good races at G1 level when 4th in the Underwood over 1800 and then ran on strongly for 3rd in the Turnbull. 2400m is going to be ideal for him and again is weighted to reverse form with Gold Trip. Duke De Sessa - Used to be trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland and won a Listed Race on his final start in November at Naas. Has been settled near the back in all his 3 races in Australia so far and stayed on well enough in the Turnbull when 6th last time. Step up in trip is ideal and likely to be peaking here. Likely to have to travel very wide though given his run style and wide draw and I also think he would prefer a softer track. Hoo Ya Mal - 2nd in last years Derby and finished 12th in last year's Melbourne Cup on his first start in Australia. Had the fastest last 600m of the race when resuming over 1600m in a G2 at Randwick finishing 5th, was then 7th a couple of weeks later in the 7 Stakes also over 1600m and then was just run down late by Montefilia in the Hill Stakes. Clearly going to enjoy stepping up in trip and might just be in better form than the bare figures suggest. Right You Are - Won the Listed Mornington Cup in April and the 5th in the Underwood wasn't too bad, but was only 11th in the Turnbull and he doesn't look like being good enough. Emissary - Another who wasn't great in the Turnbull when finishing 12th and I'd be surprised if he won. Goldman - Another who doesn't look good enough and given he usually just about leads he's going to have to do some work to get over from 18. Okita Soushi - Royal Ascot winner in June when landing the Duke Of Edinburgh beating HMS President by a neck. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the St Leger Trial last time, but it has to be said that if this were a handicap in the UK or Ireland he would actually be getting less weight than he is from the other horses with UK/Irish ratings higher up the handicap. I don't really fancy him, but at the same time if he won I could see why did. Fame - 2nd in the Queensland Derby in May, but that wouldn't be good enough and not improved since. Bois D'Argent - Ran OK in The Metropolitain when 7th and he didn't get much luck in running, but given the winner Just Fine bombed out last week then I would be surprised if that form line was good enough. Spirit Ridge - Stablemate of Bois D'Argent and was 2nd in The Metropolitain. Usually makes the running, but can't see him making all. Valiant King - He has the same Irish rating as his stablemate and yet has even less weight to carry. He's very lightly raced and his only win was in a Navan maiden in May, but on his next start he was 2nd to Desert Hero at Royal Ascot. That is obviously strong form, but it was his next run that is even more eye-catching as he was only just beaten by Vauban and they pulled clear of the rest. Granted he wasn't so good on his last start, but I suspect that was being used more as a prep run ahead of his journey to Australia. Stall 1 can prove troublesome at times, but he has Jamie Kah on top so she is capable of delivering the goods. United Nations - Was a good 2nd in the Herbert Power last week, but would be a shock winner. Verdict - This is really competitive and to be honest it might be harder to find the winner than it will be of the Melbourne Cup next month. I'm going to put Without A Flight on top as this looks ideal for him. He was fancied for the Melbourne Cup last year, but the ground went against him as he needs it quick as he showed when going up to Queensland for his two wins. It will be quick ground here and his prep run was full of promise. I know Gold Trip is weighted to not finish in front of the 2nd and 3rd from the Turnbull, but I think he is worth more than the winning margin and the turn of foot he showed was seriously impressive. He is my main danger. Soulcombe didn't get the clearest of runs in the Turnbull and I don't think he was ridden quite as strongly as Gold Trip once out in the clear so he is next. West Wind Blows was game in that race to finish 2nd, but sometimes horses from the UK don't run as well 2nd up and his low draw does concern as he could find traffic. Clearly though if he does back it up then he can win. Valiant King is the other that really interests me especially on his Vauban form, but the draw just puts me off from making him a bet. Without A Flight @ 11/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair NB If having an e/w bet William Hill are going 5 places

Cheers Darran, great shout. I had a win bet at 15/2 this morning and then another in play at 12 on the Exchange!

The key stat is the draw with those drawn 1 - 11 producing 8 winners out of the last 9 with a profit of 81 points. Those drawn higher have 1 winner from 97 runners and a loss of 70 points. I wouldn't be put off by the going as 5 of the last 9 runnings have been on heavy or soft going. All 9 winners last ran 14 to 25 days ago with a profit of 99 points. Only 1 winner from 113 runners has had forecast odds higher the 14/1. This leaves BOPEDRO at 16/1 (5 places).

Got a real quandary about the Balmoral Handicap which closes the card . On the Ascot web site it says under extreme very soft/heavy conditions high numbers are favoured , but it has been several years since this bias can be confirmed as conditions haven`t been that bad .On top of that last years race under softish conditions the whole field went (for some unknown reason) over towards the low drawn side of the course .All the hold up horses were then squashed up on the rail and coudn`t get a run leaving the prominent racers in pole position .Would love some of the jockeys to stay down the high draw side , but believe they will just play follow my leader as usual.........so much so at this moment in time can`t find a bet.....any answers out there ?

A successful four days. The Euro Championship next

final PC tonight. Going with the following : 2pts Cross 14/1 WillHill ------------------------------------- 0.5pts e/w Woodhouse 80/1 Willhill 0.5pts e/w Van Dongen 100/1 WilHill 0.5pts e/w J.Williams 100/1 --------------------------------------- 0.25pts e/w Kuivenhoven 200/1 WillHill 0.25pts e/w Scutt 200/1 Willhill 0.25pts e/w Klose 250/1 WillHill 0.25pts e/w Pilgrim 500/1 Betway

Lovely. Fourth time is the charm, I guess.

Ascot 1625 Coeur D'or each way BO PEDRO each way Form from Cambridgeshire

The first time in my life I’ve ever been called a troll. Anyone who takes the time will see I post at the post and in doing so I’m going back and forth adding little titbits of info about my selections. I don’t copy anyone else, I don’t need to. If there is some useful stat I go back to my post and add it on. If I get criticism which I think is unfair I kick back. When I wrote wish list it was kicking back and it was “tongue in cheek.” Everyone has their ways their foibles and everyone’s ideas no matter how off the wall has a place. I unreservedly apologise if I’ve put anyones back up. But more to the point I unreservedly apologise for making any comment about mClark’s endeavours. Everyone brings something to the table. My thoughts zilzalian are all my own work and I’m bloody good at it. What I’m not so good at is making a profit as mClark rightly points out.

4.25 Ascot 1.5 e/w RAADOBARG 16/1 e/w 3pts invested

Ascot 4.25

Decent days racing at Ascot despite the ground which will throw up a few silly winners no doubt, a smart man wouldn't write off these french runners. Funny thing about noise and if you get sucked in by it think about all the usual BS about city of troy coming out of the mouth pieces, 6/4 for the guineas 7/2 the guineas derby double, no wonder bookies are rich. Now lets talk about a superstar that you can back today at bigger prices than the above, TAHIYRA currently 10/3 in the 3:05 ermmmmm rocket science not needed? Even if it comes last getting 10/3 about an even money shot is an early xmas pressie. I usually think in this ground its going to be all outsiders but i must confess the shorties look quite good. Kyprios? nah not for me at that price with the injury issue so Trueshan is value at 9/4, had a sheckle on Mullins Stratum at 100/1 this morn this one wont be wobbling across the line that's for sure. Sandrine likes the heavy 10/1 looks ok Angel Blue loves the heavy, big price at 33/1 but max bet for me Tahiyra I would love to back Time Lock but skinny price tempers enthusiasm a tad. Gonna risk a r/fc on O'meara in t'lucky last. Anyway that's my musings, good luck all, a day of forecasts and one decent bet for this mug punter. 😁

Al mubhir caned off boards into 3rd fav 7/1 🥺

Ocean Quest 1 50 Asc/ 1/40th of a pt ew 33/1 Port Lonsdale 3 45 Asc/ 1/40th of a pt ew 66/1 Ropey Guest 4 25 Asc/ 1/40th of a pt ew 40/1 St Lawrence 1 50 Asc/ 1/40th of a pt ew 40/1 P/L + 173.45 pts

👍 💷 @Sporting Sam ....... 2 wins while we watching England beating South Africa in 1st half 🤞........so cheers from us with our white wine / cheese / grapes 🥂

Wolverhampton 2030 Liberty mountain win chiffa win win for me last time and turned out quickly ahead of the handicapper Devasboy each way

Yeah well done with smith. 33/1 wasn’t big enough for me to go with him. If I found 50s then I would have gone with it

wolves 1900 Morrisons Roman art win looks best treated here based on a third at Southwell two runs ago. bred to appreciate this sharp rise in trip and runs off career low mark here

Ropey a gallent 2nd for ew "sheckels"

You know when your eye is in and you know when it isn’t so I’ll wait for the wolves card. Any negative energy and I just cannot operate. Hopefully better vibes by the time Wolverhampton kicks off. good luck with your selections. 👍

It is the rugby tonight and it would be a major upset if England can turn over South Africa. I’m just banking on Owen Farrell kicking a few goals and better still a few drop goals as three in the match is 50/1. I’m sure you can get better odds but one is 5/2 two is 12/1 and so on. Farrell is 3/1 for a max of a tenner to score just 10points and 6/4 otherwise. And 6/5 to score 9 + and it is those fine margins which just might land the cash. leopardstown 1:55 draw data is stall 9 occupied by the frankel horse Demotion weld’s Spoken truth win this one has an entry in the Newmarket guineas the other horse of high interest here is SHAMSUDDEN Each way Johnny murtagh has an Aga Khan horse here and the breeder seeks a card double having run off with the opener. This horse has been well backed both runs so far and ran well latest behind a good sort and with so many O’Brien horses arriving in opposition will go off a big price again.

Poptronic 28/1 Bet 365 Ascot 14:25

Main bet is on trueshan, but do have some open doubles if kyprios wins. 1425 timelock 1545 King of Steel 1615 wh epic on Al mubhir and also free bet on sonny Liston as main bets. Still tonuse some coral bb and one or two fbs I have. Coral doing a match free bet upto a fiver.

Ascot 1315 trueshan win ticks every box has won this the last three times and comes here seeking a hat trick having won domestically and followed up in impressive style in the mud at Longchamp. This a stern test but bids to claim ownership of the race with a win here and should not be opposed.

I' also sticking with Ross Smith. If he does not win, I'trying him again next week at the EC. Not at 150/1, I suppose. 😀

Can’t believe those odds on Pilgrim 😳 - not got a Betway account unfortunately, but I’d be all over that if I did.

Better exercise/challenge might be 10 races 1 horse in each race over say 20 days, under 10/1 win only, over 10/1 ew, Just a suggestion. I would join in that for a bit of fun. @LEE-GRAYS might join in too if his missus lets him leave the carrots alone for another 30 mins. @harry_rag would love to keep score i reckon 🤣🤣

I’ve captured the odds but will leave it to the week to crunch them. If you or anyone wants to have a bash at getting a forecast up on this race then see how it goes. But I think the bottom line is where we got to; the overround on fc is much bigger than it is for the win market so the market is harder to beat for punters and much more profitable for the bookies. That doesn’t make it unbeatable necessarily but it’s at least the punting equivalent of a black ski slope, best treated with caution by most.

Swingalong 13:50 Ascot - 33/1 general Bennetot 16:25 Ascot - 33/1 PP Each Way Double

No worries. Surprised he drifted to be honest. Has to do it the hard way as well as he came widest of all into the straight.

October p/l -£42.70 September to date p/l -£51.73

Day 91 -£160

It all depends on the number of runners, the number of places and the place terms. Assuming no overround then in a 16 runner handicap the expected return from betting to win would be 0 but for each way it would be 9%. Increase the number of places to 5 (but reduce the each way terms from 1/4 to 1/5) and the return increases to 13%.

@Tedthewolf It's in the lap of the gods if rain spoils it now ....I've rated the race on soft but if it rains it might go heavy ....rating currently is ... Al mubhir. 8.8. 14/1 lads Sonny Liston. 8.5. 7/1 Blue for you 8.2 Coeur dor. 8.2 Raadaburg. 8.1 My idea of good outsider is Al mubhir .....but draw could be against him .....best drawn is sonny Liston in 7 with Ryan Moore onboard ...commands respect on that ....but value horse Def Al mubhir and I've had a tenner Ew at 14/1 with lads ...all the others are much shorter (as low as 11) ...for the haggas horse with Marquand aboard ...5 places

I'd better get on the unreserved apology gravy train as I've probably said something I regret on reflection and I'll post-date it to cover the next 2 or 3 which will probably arise as and when! I for one certainly have never doubted the first point and don't necessarily dispute the second. I'd just want proof. I'm not re-hashing the old ground covered on here about what you post in terms of "metrics" for our benefit. I just mean if I was you I'd want to know for my own benefit; how good (or, potentially, not) are my actual returns. In particular it might surprise you in terms of where you do well and where you do badly and that can be the most valuable feedback you get from your own betting records. I did a quick tot up of your returns on one day and one thing I did think was "might be worth not bothering with the e/w bets". Not worth much based on one day's bets but I recall you did briefly decide to stop doing them; might be that your instinct was right on that point.

No problem whatsoever. I now know how to move posts from one thread to the other so you've contributed to my on the job development!

I unreservedly apologise for the word troll, it was more tongue in cheek. My big concern with your posts is that you quote science but science is all about data and an experimental approach then an analysis of that data and experimentation but you don't keep records which is anomalous to me. Finally you say "i'm bloody good at it" well no good unless you make money out of it and no good if you don't know how much you are losing or winning.

I’m sticking with Ross Smith (33/1) and Gurney (50/1), and adding Sedlacek (300/1) and Rupprecht (350/1) as outsiders.

13.15 Ascot Coltrane E/W 7/1 Bet365 15.05 Ascot Paddington 9/4 Bet365 13.50 Ascot Kinross 6/4 Bet365 Reserves: 16.15 N. Abbot Wonderful Eagle 11/4 Bet365 16.20 Catterick Legal Reform 6/4 Bet365 Best of luck everyone 👍🏿

5.27 longchamp dirty geurty 40/1 £10 e/w bet365

Bet 45. £22.54. Bodo Glimt v Sandefjord @ 1.01.

Asc 115 Maxident 95/1 ewx 4pl. £10 Ew. bet365.

Nice winners hope my luck turns soon 😂👍

This very topic pops up every so often over the years was trying to find some old threads to post as we have had some great discussions & knowledgeable guys on here over the years (i wish a lot of them were still around i really do) here but sadly can't find the threads maybe somebody can i ain't great on computers!!! Anyway from memory it was pretty split most likely be similar this time around some were saying win bets only some e/w any price and others like myself 4/1 (@1/4 odds) 5/1 (@ 1/5 odds) that or above each way. I guess it's a personal choice and what works for you.

Some of my best bets have been each way where extra places are available, sadly I have less opportunities these days as I can't bet with most bookies. Generally, if you can get the best odds with a bookie offering extra places then I would bet each way. The best opportunities are in the big handicaps of 16+ runners where there are usually bookies offering 5,6 or more places. The actual odds are irrelevant if you are looking at long term profits. I would back horses under 5/1 each way if there were extra places.

Going for Sweet William ew at 10-1 in the stayers . Last time when beaten by Trueshan came cruising into the race and then faltered (perhaps on a bit of dodgy ground) and still ran on strongly to the line . All it`s best form on soft , also has a very pronounced knee action .If the real Kyprios turns up might just be playing for a place , but think it will get a nice tow into the race so might not have to hit the front too early .

I suppose doing e/w on 5/1 shots or 4/1 are in theory got lot more chance of winning than 10/1 and over but lot more probability of a place which gives you another chance to hit a winner and a small profit just keeps you going longer 👍