The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!!

[skylark2009]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Well done AK, A fanstastic reward for all of your hard work and effort over the last few months. An excellent thread from start to finish.:clap

[Denman]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Well Done AK, you deserve the profit for the work you put into it. :ok Same again next year?

[brandyyy67]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 am i reading this right ak u backed all the horses in green with the amount stated to win which comes to over 3 grand you caught the winner with 300+ bet at 10/1 so u made slight profit v risky indeed as black apalachie nearly stayed i guess im reading your system wrong

[NewPunter]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Great result AK, going for the same again next year?

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I have to be happy with that really don’t I :)

Really chuffed for McCoy too.

Thanks for your comments everyone and yes, I’ll give it another bash for next year.

In summary, I’d just like to say

:bignana

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010

am i reading this right ak u backed all the horses in green with the amount stated to win which comes to over 3 grand you caught the winner with 300+ bet at 10/1 so u made slight profit v risky indeed as black apalachie nearly stayed i guess im reading your system wrong

Maybe its because I've only just woken up but I dont understand? I didnt stake £3,000. I staked £456.35 and layed £456.35, which means I ultimately staked nothing. read the first post, it should be explained properly in there. :ok

[fintron]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 great result AK, very well done, nice to see hard work rewarded :clap:clap

[bigtoz]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 :notworthy Top marks.:clap I'm glad your time and effort has paid off. Inspired by your system I started my own version(just small stakes) and I too made a small profit on the day.I will try again for next year but will definately start sooner and use bigger stakes.Many thanks for a great idea as played correctly you can have a lot of fun at little or no cost or even with luck make a profit.:cheers.

[Lydo33]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I'm a new member and just had a read through this. Brilliant thread, well done. I'll defo be trying this next year! :)

[Lydo33]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 U should start this again for next year AK. One of the best threads on here.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! 2010/11 Time to bump this thread back up with the new jumps season underway.

Rather than start a new thread for 2011, i'll continue with this one. The reason being is that the Grand National often attracts a handful of the same entries every year and therefore, it's likely I will be referring to this thread for pointers on potential selections. If it falls further down the pages it will make things difficult so best keep everything in one place.

The aim of this thread is two-fold and is explained in the first post of this thread, but just to recap:

This thread will be judged as successful in 2 ways: 1. Primarily I would like to go into the Grand National 2010 race with a "green" book on betfair with at least one horse of the 40 showing a profit, but preferably five or six. This would be a success in the sense that I would have at least 1 "free" bet on the race. 2. Secondary to this, the next measure of success will be if any of them actually win the race. I will target horses that I think are overpriced and will shorten throughout the year to the extent that I can lay them later on.

I had a great result last year and whilst a similar outcome might be asking too much, I will have a lot of fun in the meantime :)

[Aykay1]

[Rebel]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Good Luck best year, 2010 was a great read and very interesting to follow

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! I'll be keeping one eye on CHARACTER BUILDING in the 435 at Aintree today. Had an interrupted preparation last year - wasnt seen out till February and therefore did well to finish 7th in the GN itself. With a better prep this year he could be one of the major players.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Character Building ran well enough to finish a close, staying on 3^rd. I wont be backing him at his current price of 42.0 but nevertheless he is one to keep an eye on.

One of my first port of calls last year was those horses with National experience (not necessarily Aintree). The Irish National winner is usually a safe bet to line up at Aintree the following year but not with BLUESEA CRACKER, whose connections are not keen, so I’ll leave her alone for now.

There are a handful of horses that I have orders outstandfing on betfair for but one that has been matched is the Irish GN 3^rd, Whatuthink, who makes his seasonal debut tomorrow.

These are comments in the Irish GN from the Racing Post. Staying on well at the end.

Having lost his way a bit over fences, Whatuthink showed a good bit more behind Zaarito at Naas last time and showed even more here. Never that far from the pace and jumping pretty well, he was driven up right into contention five out but hit something of a flat spot before the straight and was struggling a bit to get into a challenging position after that. He stayed on well, though, from the second-last and would have been second in another stride or two.

The race he contests tomorrow was won by Vic Venturi last year and he went on to start one of the favourites for Aintree. An article in the Racing Post today suggests the Grand National is the aim for him. Admittedly, the price would suggest otherwise given that he is 50/1 with the bookies. Nevertheless…..

Whatuthink £5 @ 264.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! In Compliance £5 @ 260.0 In light of the pedigree of recent winners of the Grand National, it appears that horses sired by Old Vic are worthy of a second look. Notable offspring include last years 1-2; Don’t Push It and Black Apalachi, previous winner Comply or Die and other notable stayers such as Vic Venturi, Chelsea Harbour and Southern Vic. Vic Venturi would interest me again, he has proved a liking for the fences and was prominent when hampered and unseating in the race last year. He, much like Black Apalachi is no sort of price at the moment though. The two that interest me at bigger prices are In Compliance and One Cool Cookie. My bet on the latter hasn’t been matched yet but I have taken 260.0 on In Compliance. He ran ok in the Topham last year, showing a liking for the fences, running as if a longer trip would suit him. His stamina is untested and I can find no indication that he is being aimed at the National but his price reflects that. Formerly high class, he could be another Comply or Die type. Killyglen £5 @ 160.0 Despite having some good novice chasing form over 3m+, it is thought that even further distances will be welcome for Killyglen. He has changed stables in the summer but former trainer Howard-Johnson was very much of the opinion that he is a stayer. " All he does is stay, he stays all day." He made an encouraging seasonal debut over hurdles, running a hot favourite close to finish second. He was pulled up in the Scottish National last season but looks likely to go for the Aintree version this time around. RP Comments: Runner-up Killyglen ran a very fair race and justified the decision to come the long way down from Larne. He´s a real dour stayer and perhaps could have had even more use made of him as he didn´t take it up until the final circuit. He gradually increased the pace but was never truly able to get his much classier rival off the bridle. It was certainly an encouraging effort for a horse likely to be prepared for a tilt at the Grand National.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! cutting and pasting from Word 2007. Any ideas why it is coming out like this anyone?

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Word always takes code with it mate, it's never a good idea. Copy into notepad first, then paste it on to PL from notepad and just space it out as you need it. :ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Shouldn't we have a separate thread for this by the way? I can set it up and move all the posts unless you have a reason for combining it?

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Paul, you legend. Thank you very much :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! I don’t particularly mind. I gave this as the reason for combining them: Rather than start a new thread for 2011, i'll continue with this one. The reason being is that the Grand National often attracts a handful of the same entries every year and therefore, it's likely I will be referring to this thread for pointers on potential selections. If it falls further down the pages it will make things difficult so best keep everything in one place. It just saves me flicking between the two threads when I’m referring to last year’s thread. The danger I suppose is that if I do this every year, it turns into a bit of a monster 4or 5 years down the line! Up to you mate, like I say, I don’t particularly mind either way :ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Let's change it every 2 years then. :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Ballabriggs £10 @ 34.0 A horse very much on the upgrade, having won his last 3 chases, including the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. The stable won that race in 2007 with Cloudy Lane, who ended up Grand National favourite. Thats already the plan with Ballabriggs, as confirmed by McCain recently: “Has always been a good horse but took a long time to get there. Everything will be geared around the Grand National and I’ll keep him over hurdles until the weights are out. That’s not because we think he’s well in, rather that he’s 150 now and wouldn’t want any more. Plus, he’s still a novice over hurdles.” A rating of 150 would have got him a weight of 11 stone 2 lb's in last years race which is fine. If he gets to the race in one piece, he will be a market leader, not only due to the horses ability and potential, but maybe with the positive publicity that surrounds the McCain stable around Grand National time.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Mumbles Head £5 @ 200.0 Another potential improver is Mumbles Head. Short of top class over hurdles, he had some decent novice chasing form, running Weapons Amnesty to 4 lengths around this time last year. He failed to build on that in the face of some more very decent opposition but was found to be "under the weather - dirty windpipe" and was given a break. On his return he was a hard luck story over 3m 4f in the Uttoxeter Summer National - his final start: The hard-luck story was Mumbles Head, who was making his returning from a 141-day break and had some decent novice form last season. He was given a lovely ride, creeping into things around the home turn, and looked the most likely winner prior to falling three out. Providing he is none the worse for this experience, there should be a decent pot in him at some stage. He was entered in the Grand National last year but didnt make the cut off a weight of 10 stone 3 lbs. His current rating of 137 probably wont be enough to get him into the race yet bit the promise of his last run suggests he can improve, having only had 5 runs over fences.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! I noticed Mumbles Head got matched at 80.0 yesterday. maybe i'll try and lay off already. Nothing much of note running today but this is from Donald McCain's stable tour in the racing post yesterday re: Ballabriggs.

Ballabriggs	D McCain Jnr	4:40 Cheltenham	—
Obviously we were delighted with the way last season went because Mr Hemmings had been very patient. We didn’t run him after Cheltenham last year as he’d had a few quickish runs and a few hard races so we left him. He’s a good horse and this season will be geared around Aintree. We will go novice hurdling to start with, not because we think we are particularly well handicapped – we are not hiding a good mark – but we definitely don’t want any more. He is 150 and if you win another one on the way you haveno chance of winning the National. For all the world he’s always looked like an Aintree horse, from the day he ran in a bumper if that makes any sense. His jumping is very neat and slick and he’s a very strong traveller.-29/10/10.

Obviously we were delighted with the way last season went because Mr Hemmings had been very patient. We didn’t run him after Cheltenham last year as he’d had a few quickish runs and a few hard races so we left him. He’s a good horse and this season will be geared around Aintree. We will go novice hurdling to start with, not because we think we are particularly well handicapped – we are not hiding a good mark – but we definitely don’t want any more. He is 150 and if you win another one on the way you haveno chance of winning the National. For all the world he’s always looked like an Aintree horse, from the day he ran in a bumper if that makes any sense. His jumping is very neat and slick and he’s a very strong traveller.-29/10/10.

Ballabriggs	D McCain Jnr	4:40 Cheltenham	—

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Fabalu £3 @ 170.0

Ive been reading the Donald McCain stable tour and another one that catches the eye is Fabalu.

He is a grand horse, a horse I like a lot, genuine and tough. He is probably a suitable horse to run in the Welsh National.

He didn’t quite get home in the four-miler at Cheltenham because the ground was too quick, he was in top gear all the way and trying to do too much and didn’t last out. He still ran well.

I’d love to take him to Aintree this year if I could, he could go for the Becher Chase if he is ready. He is rated 136 and only needs to win one to get in the National and he strikes me as the sort, he is a really good-jumping horse; tough and honest.-29/10/10.

Two pointers, here - clearly he is keen on the Grand National but prior to that it looks as though he will run in the Welsh version. This isnt a problem - the Welsh GN is historically a good trial for the Aintree version.

The fact he will likely run in the Becher Chase is an encouraging pointer for the plans for this horse. If he takes to the fences and runs well, his price for Aintree will drop.

The concern is his rating of 136, which wouldn’t normally be enough to get him into the race. However, Phil Smith the handicapper, pretty much has a free reign in the national and can manipulate horses marks as he sees fit. He is pretty open that a run in the Becher, will be viewed as an advantage for the Grand National.

Whilst this can have the effect of putting some trainers off the race, due to the fear that their horse will be rated too high in the Grand National because of a run in the Becher Chase, it can also work the other way, with horses that would otherwise struggle to get in.

Look at Royal Rosa and Palypso de Creek last year - finshed 3rd and 4th in the Becher respectively. Royal Rosa was only rated 125, but was able to race off 139 in the Grand National and therefore get a run. Similarly, Palypso de Creek was rated 140 in the GN despite having an OR of only 134.

In short, I think if McCain wants to race him in the National, he will get in if he runs in the Becher which looks like happening. with that in mind, 170.0 looks worth taking.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! This time last year, I had backed 14 horses. I'm not quite up to that yet but I’ve been busy. Bluesea Cracker £5 @ 65.0 My first starting point last year was the winners of the previous years Nationals. A horse that is almost always fancied to go well at Aintree is the winner of the previous years Irish National. Here are recent winners records at Aintree.

YEAR	WINNER	NEXT YEARS ENGLISH GRAND NATIONAL
2001	DAVIDS LAD	Fell at 10/1
2002	THE BUNNY BOILER	UR at 50/1
2003	TIMBERA	Pulled out after sickness
2004	GRANIT D'ESTRUVAL	DNR
2005	NUMBERSIXVALVERDE	1st at 11/1
2006	POINT BARROW	Fell at 8/1
2007	BUTLERS CABIN	Fell at 10/1
2008	HEAR THE ECHO	Fell at 33/1
2009	NICHE MARKET	PU at 16/1

I have hesitated backing this one up until now as after her win, there was talk from the stable that they may not consider Aintree due to the threat of an injury ruining her high value following her Irish National win. However, I note she has an entry for the Hennessy at the end of this month so it appears a competitive season is on the cards. I can understand the fear of injuring the horse but Aintree’s fences are much safer than they used to be and I think the temptation will be too much. If it is, I have a great price on a horse that looks to have the stamina and class to be a fancied runner in April. Neptune Collonges £5 @ 356.0 A bit of a speculative bet this one. I wouldn’t even have considered backing him but a quote from Paul Nicholls in his recent stable tour caught my eye. He would be an ideal Grand National horse, though I’m not sure whether Aintree would be near the top of John’s priority list Its apparent that Niche Market will be the stables main National hope but Nicholls isn’t averse to entering a few in the race. As an example, he had 4 runners last year, 4 in 2009 and 3 in 2008. With Tricky Trickster seemingly being aimed at the Scottish Grand National later in April, its hard to see him entered for Aintree too. That doesn’t leave Nicholls with too many options and if Neptune Collonges hasnt retained all of his ability when he comes back from injury, the National could be a viable option. Nicholls suggests the owners intentions could be a stumbling block but they ran Heros Collonges (half brother) in 2005 and 2006 so wouldn’t perhaps be completely against the idea. At the prices available, worth chancing. Ballytrim £5 @ 170.0 Mullins wanted him in the Grand National last season but he wasnt rated quite high enough and so had to settle for a crack at the Irish version. 7/3/10 - I`d love to run at Aintree but I just don`t think he`ll get in, so we`ll probably go for the Irish National now - Willie Mullins. Has the stamina, whether he has the class to be competitve at Aintree is yet to be proved although he did beat Irish GN winner Bluesea Cracker in March. He should have improvement in him. Starts this season off a rating of 137 and should be able to improve on that. Vic Venturi £5 @ 80.0 Experience over the Aintree fences is usually a big plus and one who has that experience is last years Becher winner Vic Venturi. He was one to take out of the race last year, going well enough with the race leaders but was brought down through no fault of his own. He beat stablemate Black Apalachi last season in another Grand National trial (Bobbyjo Chase), - that one went on to finish 2^nd in the Grand National. I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be aimed at the race again this year and given that he was considered well in off a mark of 154 last year, the rise to 158 shouldn’t be too much of a concern. Abbeybraney £5 @ 230.0 I'll write up properly on this one tomorrow.

[Aykay1]