Aykay1 Posted May 26, 2009 Share Posted May 26, 2009 This glory hunt will be judged as successful in 2 ways: 1. Primarily I would like to go into the Grand National 2010 race with a "green" book on betfair with at least one horse of the 40 showing a profit, but preferably five or six. This would be a success in the sense that I would have at least 1 "free" bet on the race. 2. Secondary to this, the next measure of success will be if any of them actually win the race. I will target horses that I think are overpriced and will shorten throughout the year to the extent that I can lay them later on. Bets will obviously be pretty sporadic as it is so early, but I had a glance at the weekend and placed my first two bets: Ballytrim £5 @ 161.2 Willie Mullins has openly stated that this horse will be targeted at either the Irish Grand National or the Aintree equivalent next season, so to see him trading at such a big price was a surprise, even given the possibility he might go for the Irish version. He still looks to be improving as his last 2 runs have probably seen his 2 best performances. They will also have assured his stamina is good enough, winning over 30f on unsuitably heavy ground last time and winning after staying on over 28f prior to that. Irish trained is usually a good thing in the recent history of this race and Willie Mullins has previously won it with Hedgehunter. Currently rated 132 over fences, that probably wont be enough to get him into the race but as he is still on the upgrade, id expect that rating to increase enough by next April to get him in. A rise of about 7lb should be enough. Just have to hope they opt for the Aintree version :hope Denman £5 @ 23.0 He was entered in the race this year but connections decided against it late in the day after a pretty traumatic season. He ran a decent race in the circumstances in the Gold Cup, staying on for 2nd behind Kauto Star and then departing 2 fences out when running a big race at Aintree after that . I have a feeling they could be tempted this year and considering he traded at prices as low as 6/1 last year, could be tradeable at 23.0. BACKS Denman 23 £5.00 £110.00 Ballytrim 161.2 £5.00 £801.00 Others on my radar at the moment are ACCORDING TO JOHN and GONE TO LUNCH, trading at 100.0 and 55.0 respectively. I'll probably wait until the jumps season starts before assessing those though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jquik Posted May 26, 2009 Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Really interesting idea mate! BOL on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 14, 2009 Author Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Flintoff £10 @ 173.52 Thoughts turn to last years winning trainer Venetia Williams and another one of her entries from last year, who didn’t make the cut off a mark of 136 – Flintoff – owned by Andrew Flintoff. A glance at Mon Mome’s career prior to his victory at Aintree last year sees runs in all the top staying chases such as the Midlands Grand National, Scottish National, Welsh National and a prior attempt in the 2008 English version. Flintoffs career is following a similar path in that he has raced in Midlands National, Scottish National, Irish National, Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase at Haydock, in fact all of his last 6 runs have been over 3m 4f so there’s no disguising where Venetia sees his future. He has acquitted himself well in those staying chases – a 3rd of 24 in the Scottish National and 6/24 in the Irish version before a close 2nd behind Russian Trigger in the Midlands National last time off a mark of 136. He has been raised to 140 for that effort which would have been enough to scrape in to the bottom of the handicap last year. I would expect him to be entered for Aintree again this year and fingers crossed he can maintain his current rating so he gets into the race this time. Most of the previous Aintree winners had previously run in other Nationals so that’s a plus and at the age of 8 he should still be progressive and have improvement in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 14, 2009 Author Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 BacksStakeOddsProfitDenman£523.0£110.00Ballytrim£5161.2£801.00Flintoff£10173.52£1,725.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrislloyd2001uk Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Great Idea Mate! How much are you looking to lay out alltogether? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Good luck AK :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 15, 2009 Author Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Great Idea Mate! How much are you looking to lay out alltogether? Thanks chaps. No idea how much I am willing to lay out - if i think something is overpriced, i will back it with a view to laying off at a later date! I have 3 more in mind but am waiting for betfair markets to move before I get involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Welsh I have looked at the Welsh National winner Notre Pere but feel that his rating of 167 is too high and would be surprised if he is entered. He may be more of a Gold Cup horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 BacksStakeOddsProfitDenman£523.0£110.00Ballytrim£5161.2£801.00Flintoff£10173.52£1,725.20Mon Mome£538.0£185.00Niche Market£540.0£195.00Hello Bud£542.0£205.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Looking good so Far AK, some good horses there mate. I might even take a few myself from your list, As I notice always someone on PL landing some big early odds and the winner to boot. GL with the picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Thanks Kev, just bear in mind that im not necessarily backing these to win, im backing them with a view to laying in a few months when hopefully they will have shortened in price. I'm aiming to go into the race with a green book on betfair. Just have to hope they are popular with other backers now! A plunge on Flintoff would be nice. Unless I see a stand out price, I'll probably hold fire until the autumn now as theres not much going on jumps wise and the market isnt very liquid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Nice first 'trade' AK. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Fingers crossed he doesnt do himself any damage in the 3rd test this week ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Good luck AK!! And good first trade :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Thanks Kev, just bear in mind that im not necessarily backing these to win, im backing them with a view to laying in a few months when hopefully they will have shortened in price. I'm aiming to go into the race with a green book on betfair. Just have to hope they are popular with other backers now! A plunge on Flintoff would be nice. Unless I see a stand out price, I'll probably hold fire until the autumn now as theres not much going on jumps wise and the market isnt very liquid. Yeah, I understood from the first post mate, that hopefully come march you have 10 runners or more running for free :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Alzheimers Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I think he`s planning on winning before the race is run kev , +£££ on every runner:ok Very interesting long term prospect , best of luck to ya :hope Sarge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 26, 2009 Author Share Posted August 26, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted August 26, 2009 Share Posted August 26, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Just seen this thread mate, very interesting idea and BOL with it. Will watch/read with interest. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 31, 2009 Author Share Posted August 31, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 The start of the jumps season is always interesting because it brings about the annual stable tours and interviews, with details of plans for certain horses. I’ve noted a selection of probable GN runners and have been busy where I think there are decent prices available. Casey Jones £5 @ 75.0 This was a bit of an eyecatcher at the Festival in March finishing like a train in the RS&A chase to finish 5th behind Cooldine. In fact in all of his races over 3m, he has been noted as "staying on well", or "finishing strongly". Therefore, a longer trip surely won’t be a problem. How much longer is open to debate but after winning at Punchestown last week, his trainer commented that he thinks the horse jumps well and stays well and whilst he will be targeted at the Hennessy, he could be a National horse. I wouldnt want his rating to go much higher than 149, but he has some high quality form and the signs are that he has the stamina to go well if he runs. National experience is historically a plus and he has that in the Irish National, albeit he ran below par. Arbor Supreme £10 @ 70.0 Willie Mullins has confirmed he will be aimed at the National this season. His best form has come over the longer distances such as winning over 30f at Punchestown, beating Black Apalachi by 5 lengths. That ones subsequent exploits makes the performance good form. Also has winning form over 29f at Fairyhouse, on the Irish National course but ran below par in the race itself. I’d suggest that run is best ignored as he bounced back quickly after that finishing a good 3rd of 19 under the guidance of Ruby Walsh. Having taken high profile rides from the Mullins stable before, there’s a chance Ruby could do so again and if so, this ones price would contract sharply. Even ignoring the “Ruby Factor” Arbor Supreme has the profile of a GN contender and has the class and stamina to be competitive. Irish Invader £4.71 @ 120.0 This was quietly fancied in last year’s race but finished down the field in 11th. The National was a strange entry for it as he was campaigned over shorter distances, in the region of 2 miles. It therefore seemed a massive step up in trip but the fact he was well backed suggested a plot may have been on the cards. In recent interview, Mullins said the horse has done well and strengthened over the summer and that the owners are keen on the National again. It will be interested to see how he fares over long distance chases as a better preparation could see a better showing in the GN. Iris de Balme £7 @ 102.86 I'll be backing this one for the same reasons as the other Scottish/Irish National winners I've backed so far - this one won the 2008 Scottish National and was to be aimed at the English version before injury scuppered that plan. There was a piece on him in Tuesdays Racing Post. He is fit again after a year off and will be aimed at the Grand National 2010. Missing a season through injury will concern many and no doubt contributes to the inflated price we can get. Whilst we will have to wait and see how well he comes back from injury, it historically has not been a major disadvantage to recent GN winners. Comply or Die and Silver Birch both came back from season long lay offs to win the race and with positive vibes coming from the stable, maybe Iris de Balme can be competitive too. Operation Houdini £2.60 @ 100.0 A bit speculative this one but will be aimed at the race. Is rated a bit low at the moment (OR 131) but won well on Monday, and looks progressive. Could sneak in at the bottom of the handicap and if he does, 99/1 is a big big price. Garde Champetre £7 @ 110.73 Garde Champetre was entered for the race last year but was withdrawn quite late on after winning at Cheltenham. He has started this campaign in the same race as the last one and I assume he will follow the same route to Cheltenham to defend his crown. I’m obviously hoping he lines up this year but even if he doesn’t, a similar level of performance this time round should see his price for the GN contract as the season goes on – I remember him trading in the late 30’s before his withdrawal last season. He starts this season off 141, a lower mark than last year and is still at an age where he can be competitive. Therefore there is no immediate reason to think he cant have another successful season. Having considered the GN last year, maybe connections will bite the bullet this time. Either way, this price looks pretty tradeable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Some mixed news on some of those already backed. Unfortunately Flintoff’s main aim for the season will be the Welsh National. It doesn’t necessarily mean he wont run in the English version too, but there was no mention of the race in the interview, which wasn’t very encouraging. Having said that, Mon Mome ran in both races last season so maybe it’s a good omen after all! On a brighter note, Willie Mullins wants to run Ballytrim in the Grand National but admits he would need to improve. As a pretty unexposed chaser, I think he can improve and would go to Aintree with a chance. The connections of Merigo were pretty bullish in their hopes of the horse lining up in the National and they think he will be suited to the race, which considering I have a 3 figure price on him was good news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Hello Bud runs in the 1.50 at Ascot today so lets see how he gets on and if theres any signals as to where he will be aimed this season. He's an unfancied 20/1 shot so i'll be pleased with a staying on 5th or 6th or something similar. Tomorrow Merigo makes his seasonal debut too. He needs to go up a few lb's to get into the National so will need a win at some point before the weights come out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted November 4, 2009 Author Share Posted November 4, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Hello Bud made a pleasing reappearance, trying to make all but tiring in the closing stages. He stayed on to hold 7th. He should come on for that. Merigo on the face of it ran poorly, finishing 7th of 7 to finish. I didnt see the race and havent heard any trainer reaction yet so not sure what to make of it. He will need another win to get into the race though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted November 4, 2009 Author Share Posted November 4, 2009 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 IRIS ON COMEBACK TRAIL By Tom Peacock, Press Association Sport Click here to follow us on Twitter! Click here for more racing news Iris De Balme is progressing towards a racecourse return after missing all of last season. Trainer Sean Curran hopes his stable star will eventually end up in the Grand National at Aintree next April after an outstanding 2008, when he was a 66-1 winner of the Scottish National and an honourable fourth in the Bet365 Gold Cup, when sent off the 9-2 favourite. But Curran discovered heat in one of his tendons and allowed the horse plenty of time to recover. The Oxfordshire-based trainer revealed: "He's back cantering now and, touch wood, everything seems OK at the minute. "If he holds his rating, and he has a good enough rating at the moment, I would love to go for the National, but he may have to show he deserves his place. "We would be looking to come back in the middle or end of December and we'll see how he comes along. "He is a novice over hurdles, so that is one option so he can get his eye back in, otherwise we'll run in a staying chase somewhere." Curran, a popular character who rode some of his horses up to last season, is making a decent fist of his other career. He continued: "We have about 25 jumpers, that's not bad, and had a nice three-year-old hurdler (Prince Pippin) win the other day. Hopefully he can win another ordinary race. We've been steady away, but things are good." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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