dannkez2407 Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 hello mate, what time tomorrow will we know whos been ditched? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Here you go: Irish Invader, Siegemaster, One Cool Cookie, Beroni, Darkness, Jayo, Royal County Star, Kilcrea Castle, Bible Lord, Parsons Legacy, Glenfinn Captain, Kilbeggan Blade, Old Benny. So I lose Irish Invader, One Cool Cookie, Parsons Legacy and Old Benny. Disappointed about One Cool Cookie but otherwise no real harm done. Good that War of Attrition has stayed in :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 3, 2010 Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 cheers matey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 4, 2010 Author Share Posted March 4, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 9, 2010 Author Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 An eventful weekend. Possol pretty much blundered his way out of Grand National contention. Gone to Lunch hasnt looked interested for his last 3 runs and surely cant be considered a viable option now. On the bright side, it means I can disregard them from my calculations. Disappointingly Iris de Balme ran an absolute stinker and trailed home last, apparently distressed. I managed to get out a measly £2 @ 75.0. He is now available to back at 130.0 and wont be winning the National im afraid :( On the other hand, Big Fella Thanks ran an excellent trial by winning over 2m 4f. I'm happy to be on at 20.0 but not sure i'd back him at the current price of 11.0. Still some small stamina doubts for me so will probably leave him alone now. At least I have him covered. Arbor Supreme bounced back to form too, with an encouraging effort - very timely and he is now looking like the "trends pick". I will be backing him as soon as Mullins commits him to the race. he seems preoccupied with Cheltenham at the moment in all his recent interviews, which is understandable. Eric's Charm won well too and his price has shrunk. In hindsight I have laid him off too early but hindsight is a wonderful thing eh? Ballytrim won and would have a big chance if lining up but he isnt getting into the race off 10 stone 1lb so he looks like one to keep an eye on for next year and back in the Irish National this year. So basically I have £24.78 to play with at the moment. Like I say, some of that will be going on Arbor Supreme and I will certainly be taking a look at Character Building, however I have backed that one the last 2 years and he has been pulled out injured both times, so forgive me if I play the waiting game on him! Any thoughts or suggestions welcome! AK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Managed to lay £2 @ 355.0 for Ballytrim. Hardly the greatest trade in the world, having backed him at 160.0ish but there is no way he is getting into the race off his handicap mark so £2 back is better than just waving goodbye to the £5 i originally staked. A few to keep an eye on today at Chetenham: Character Building, Joe Lively and Casey Jones will see their prices slashed if they run well in the WH Chase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Other Grand National hopefuls Comply or Die, RP Chase winner Razor Royale, Beat the Boys, New Alco, Chief Dan George, Ollie Magern, The Package and Niche Market also run in the WH Chase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Chief Dan george ran a great Grand National prep but unfortunately wont get in. Character Building was never in it so he will be one more I can cross off the shortlist. Casey Jones fell, Niche Market ran a good race before fading when things quickened up and Comply or Die ran well before fading in the latter stages - he will come on for that run so I reckon connections will be pretty happy with him. Thats about it so no more bets from me off the back of that race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Casey Jones killed :( RIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 18, 2010 Author Share Posted March 18, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 19, 2010 Author Share Posted March 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 19, 2010 Author Share Posted March 19, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Just realised Mon Mome finished 3rd! BIG move for him on betfair, being backed from 38.0 earlier this week to 14.5 at the moment. Can he win with that kind of weight? can he be the first horse to retain the race since Red Rum? :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 27, 2010 Author Share Posted March 27, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Ruby confirmed as riding big fella thanks, chosen over tricky trickster. Bft certain favourite now :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 28, 2010 Author Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Well I think the trading side of this thread is pretty much over now. The good news is that I have an all green book and have £25.48 to play with in free bets. The question now is Who is going to win the race? The ideal profile of the winner is; Aged between 8 and 12 Minimum of 3 chase wins Has won a chase in last 10 races Has won over 3 miles or more Place strike rate of at least 42% over fences 2-7 weeks since last prep run 2-8 prep runs in total Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 28, 2010 Author Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I think the winner will come from these and will be topping up at some point: Snowy Morning has a big chance. 3rd in this off 145 a couple of years ago, giving Comply or Die 4lb's and beaten 5 lengths. Spent most of the following season with a sky high mark, which he found tough, none more than in the 2009 National off 11 stone 8. Again, he completed the course but finished a distant 8th. This year has seen his mark drop to a more manageable 147, not necessarily through anything the horse has done wrong - he has been running at shorter trips and acquitting himself well. He has a great weight, is very consistent, has completed the Grand National course 2/2 and looks a contender to me. State of Play is another who has experience over the National fences. Finished a good 4th last year off a mark of 150. Is now rated 145, the same mark off which he won the Hennessy in 2006. The stable have been pretty open about protecting his mark for another go at the National and if he gets there in one piece, after his injury issue, which explained his lacklustre run in the Hennessy, he will be a market leader. Although recent winners of this race have had a prep run within a couple of months before the race, it is clear that State of Play runs best when fresh so this shouldn’t be counted as a negative. Vic Venturi has all the credentials to run a big race. 11 stone 6 would normally be prohibitive to me having a bet but I think there is a big chance the weight trend could be busted this year. The first 4 home last year carried 11 stone or more and if Mon Mome is top weight this year then over half the field could be carrying 11 stone plus including most of the market leaders. Putting that issue to one side, he looks an improved horse this year and has won his last 3 outings over fences, one of which was in the Becher chase over the National fences. Last time out he won the Bobbyjo chase over 3m1f staying on well to beat stablemate and fellow GN hopeful Black Apalachi with subsequent winner One Cool Cookie, a distance back in 3rd. He is in form, jumps the fences and despite the big weight, is actually 4 lbs well in after his last victory. With plenty of stamina in his pedigree a big run looks assured. Big Fella Thanks Ran a great race last year as a novice to finish 6th and with another year under his belt should progress from that. He has less weight than last year and should run well. Maljimar - He caught my eye at the Festival last year, getting caught on the line by Witchita Lineman in the WH Chase, usually a good pointer for Grand National hopefuls. He has stamina in his pedigree being a half brother to Nil Desperandum, who was favourite for this race a couple of years ago befor ehe was tragically killed. Last time out Maljimar ran a decent race over 31f, finishing 3rd of 16 beaten 3 lengths by Garde Champetre. He has a lot going for him Arbor Supreme – I have my doubts as to whether he is good enough but he seems like the trends pick this year so I’ll include him. Ollie Magern has slipped to a more realistic weight now and showed signs of form in the WH Chase at Cheltenham, finishing a strong finishing 7th. Fits most of the trends, has stamina, was classy in his day and is now more realistically treated. There are worse 200/1 shots about than him. Dream Alliance would have to be considered if it came up soft after his Welsh National win earlier in the season. Eric’s Charm – In the form of his life and is another big priced runner who meets a lot of the trends. I’m doubtful as to whether he has the class to win this – he hasn’t won a class 1 race yet so will probably avoid hin. I already have him covered so don’t think I’ll be topping up. I’ll just add Ollie Magern for now and put some more thought into the others in the coming fortnight. I need to wait for weather conditions really – it looks like a lot of rain is forecast so it could come up soft. Ollie Magern: £2 @ 220.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 28, 2010 Author Share Posted March 28, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 29, 2010 Author Share Posted March 29, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Big move for Arbor Supreme over the weekend - backed in from 25.0 to 17.0. Has Mullins commited him to the race then? Anyone know? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 29, 2010 Author Share Posted March 29, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Looks wet on the 10 day weather forecase for Liverpool. Dream Alliance anyone? http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Liverpool-UKXX0083 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 29, 2010 Share Posted March 29, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Looks wet on the 10 day weather forecase for Liverpool. Dream Alliance anyone? http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Liverpool-UKXX0083Hello Bud has won 4 miles on soft and on good. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 29, 2010 Author Share Posted March 29, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Arbor Supreme now has a jockey booking for aintree so Safe to assume he is running. He looks the trends pick in the race, is progressive, has the stamina and I have topped up. Arbor supreme £5 @ 17.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 29, 2010 Author Share Posted March 29, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Hello Bud has won 4 miles on soft and on good. :lol Scottish national winner, Has a bug chance off a feather weight in my opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 29, 2010 Author Share Posted March 29, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 *big Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 AK, Do you know when all the jockeys are announced mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 30, 2010 Author Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 They are in the process of being announced now. Just keep an eye on the racing news. Black Apalachi – Denis O’Regan Nozic – Liam Treadwell Mon Mome – Aidan Coleman Arbor Supreme – Paul Townend Big Fella Thanks - Ruby Walsh It looks like McCoy will be on Can't Buy Time. A bit p!ssed off about that as Jonjo implied he was going for the Topham so I layed most of my stake off. Grrrr! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 30, 2010 Author Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Just realised Treadwell hasnt kept the ride on Mon Mome after winning it last year. A bit harsh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 nice one mate, thanks, that is a bit harsh on treadwell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 31, 2010 Author Share Posted March 31, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Managed to lay off another £2 on Mr Pointment @ 150.0. Some market moves on betfair: Vic Venturi out to 38.0? Cant think why, has a lot going for him and is ok on soft. Dream Alliance 75.0? Some price drifting going on today! Hello Buds big drift is concerning too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 3, 2010 Author Share Posted April 3, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 McCoy now leaning towards riding " don't push it" due to the likely soft ground :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 6, 2010 Author Share Posted April 6, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Madison du Berlias highly likely to run now so the weights will stay as they are :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted April 6, 2010 Share Posted April 6, 2010 Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 cheers AK, whens cut off day for the final 25 to be removed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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