The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Niche Market and Casey Jones both run today. Not sure I want either to win, to protect their handicap marks.

[kevsul]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Still looking good AK :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Cheers Kev, its early days but noting disastrous has happened so far which is a bonus! Im a bit over reliant on 2 or 3 horses which im uncomfortable with and want to sort out in the near future. Pretty happy with Casey Jones showing on Saturday. Finished 4th of 8, beaten 19 lengths by The Listener. if you consider the fact The Listener won the race by 15 lengths, Casey Jones competed well with better horses on soft ground off level weights which was good to see. He was noted as "keeping on" which was encouraging stamina wise and I suspect a longer trip will see further improvement, as will ground better than "soft". With his trainer already hinting he could be an Aintree horse, I liked the run a lot. Having backed him at 75.0, I am happy to see the last price traded was 38.0. :ok For Niche Market, a trip of 3m 1f would have been on the short side. Predictably, he was making ground before a mistake 4 fences out. He was also noted as staying on at the end of the race from 2 fences out which confirms the thought he would have been better served over further. All in all it was a nice introduction. I have average prices in the mid 50's for him. He hasnt moved much, with the last price traded being 55.0 although there is only 38.0 available to back at the moment, which is either encouraging or indicative of the lack of a real market at the moment Operation Houdini won again on the weekend too. He is only rated 131 so needs at least another victory to get into the race. The fact this win came over hurdles wasnt very helpful on that score but it shows the horse to be on good nick following his win over fences last time out. It has occured to me that I didnt mention my bet on Parsons Legacy. This is purely a supersticious bet which will probably turn out to be a waste of f iver if im honest. To cut a long story short, 3 years a go I backed McKelvey at triple figure prices, to return a four figure sum, only to see him finished an agonising 2nd to Silver Birch. 2 years ago I tried the same thing and backed Mon Mome at triple figure prices to win the 2008 Grand National and return a four figure sum. Unfortunately he fell. I ignored him this year and he went and won @ 100/1! This year, the horse I was backing at triple figure prices was Parsons Legacy, who was running well before falling. That sounds all too familiar to me so whilst I would be suprised to see Parsons Legacy repeat Mon Mome's feat, I couldnt let him go unbacked! It's a silly bet really but stranger things have happened, although he has already drifted to 120.0 :( Parsons Legacy £5 @ 100.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 i've got the stable tours pullout from todays racing post to read tonight. featured stables are Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, Tim Vaughan, Dessie Hughes and Nicky Richards. I'll see if they say anything interesting.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 One Cool Cookie £7 @ 217.13

One who is starting to look well handicapped is One Cool Cookie, now rated 142 after reaching 153 in the early part of last season. Was entered in the Aintree National last season but Swan was unhappy with the amount of weight he was allocated so pulled him out.

"He seems to have given One Cool Cookie way more than he should have when you consider Exotic Dancer is rated 174. He's ran in England off around 150 and has ran to his mark.

"I don't know where he gets this mark from - it's absolutely crazy. It's unlikely he will run with that weight.

He ran him in the Irish version instead in which he was making good ground in 7^th place, 2 fences out before taking the wrong course. As i’ve previously stated on here, previous National experience seems to be a bonus.

The reason I’m including this one is because in the tote ten to follow listings, the comment is:

“hurdling to protect chase mark for National”

The hurdling bit is wrong as he ran 3 weeks ago over fences and runs again over fences tomorrow (trip expected to be too short). So whilst the National hint could be wrong too, they have got an inkling from somewhere that he may be aimed at the race. If he is, then the price available now doesn’t make sense. Ran a decent race in the Irish version, on a good OR, bred to have the Stamina for the race (his sire Old Vic is responsible for stayers such as Black Apalachi, Comply or Die, Chelsea harbour and Southern Vic). Connections considered Aintree last year and with his lower rating, maybe he will be allocated a more realistic weight. Therefore, i’m taking a punt they do the same this year, even if the price suggests otherwise.

State of Play £3.61 @ 37.67

Finished a good 4^th last year off a mark of 150. Is now rated 145, the same mark off which he won the Hennessy in 2006. The stable have been pretty open about protecting his mark for another go at the National and if he gets there in one piece, he will be a market leader.

[Denman]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Lovin' this thread and the whole idea behind it. Hopefully come the Grand National you'll have the majority of the horses you've placed bets on running and a very nice looking 'all-green' screen.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Thanks Denman, i hope so too! Garde Champetre won yesterday and is now available to back at 55.0 Hello Bud runs today in the 1.55 Cheltenham.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Hello Bud ran a great race to finish 3rd. He has come in a little now from 55.0 to 42.0 :ok It’s the Becher chase over the Grand National fences this Sunday and with experience over the fences usually a plus for the big race in April, the winner of the Becher, generally finds himself backed accordingly. Last year Black Apalachi was propelled to the head of the market after his win and started the race at 11/1. 2007 winner Eurotrek went off 16/1 and 2008 winner Mr Pointment went off 25/1. So you’d expect the winner of Sundays race to line up in April and wouldn’t go unfancied either.

Unfortunately it’s a competitive race and picking the winner won’t be easy.

The one I’m going for is Jonjo O’Neill’s Can’t Buy Time. He progressed at a rate of knots last season, seeing his rating increase from 100 to 141 as of now. The danger is that he has reached his ceiling but I still think he has improvement in him at 7 years of age and having only raced 11 times over fences. Won 4 of his 6 races last season and finished a decent 4^th behind Tricky Trickster when sent off favourite for the 4 miler at the Cheltenham festival. That was off a mark of 143, 2lb’s higher than here.I’d ignore his seasonal debut a couple of weeks ago, he made a horrifc blunder early on which effectively finished his race.

With stamina in his pedigree and McManus determined to win the race, he ran in the National last year but fell. I’d imagine Jonjo and/or JP McManus has the race in mind for him this year too, especially if we see a good run on Sunday.

Can’t Buy Time £8 @ 128.64

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 TWISTON-DAVIES SWEET ON BECHER DUO By Ashley Iveson, Press Association Sport Becher Chase. Click here to bet. Hello Bud (IRE) Profile Click here for racecard and form Click here to follow us on Twitter! Click here for more racing news Nigel Twiston-Davies will saddle Hello Bud and Irish Raptor in the Becher Chase at Aintree on Sunday. Hello Bud put up a fantastic front-running performance to finish a close third in the Grade Three Servo Trophy Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last weekend, while season's Topham Chase winner Irish Raptor was fourth on his return to action over hurdles. "Hello Bud ran a great race last week and is coming out of it bouncing, so we thought we'd let him take his chance," said the Naunton handler. "He hasn't been round here (Aintree) before but he is a very good jumper so hopefully he'll take to it well. "Irish Raptor has been round here a few times and seems to love it. "He probably wouldn't want the ground too soft, but we'll see how he gets on."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 The Grand National isnt on the agenda at all for Denman this year. That is from the mouth of Paul Nicholls himself. I logged onto betfair expecting him to have drifted massively but the next available lay price was 28.0. Its still a loss of 90p but I managed to lay off £4.10 @ 28.0 Lay Denman - £4.10 @ 28.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Cant Buy Time doesnt run on Sunday :@ With only 8 runners it doesnt look much use for a GN trial anyway. Maybe trainers are being scared off by the prospect of their intended National runner being handicapped out of it if they win the Becher? Lets hope Hello Bud takes well to the fences anyway.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Very happy with Hello Bud's run on Sunday. He jumped the fences like a dream, leading most of the way, only to tire in the closing stages. That wouldnt have been down to lack of stamina, but more due to the hard race he had last weekend taking its toll.

I really think this one will have a big chance if he goes to the National, he seems to tick all the boxes - stamina is proven, he likes the fences and track and an OR of 142 will give him an ideal weight.

The run didnt go unnoticed and he has been backed down to 36.0 on betfair now. Having backed him at average prices of 57.0 I had to consider the possibility of laying the bet now.

It was tough but its debateable how much shorter the price will get. With connections yet to explicitly state that Hello Bud will run in the GN, I have decided to lay at 36.0 to lock in a free £35 bet at 20/1.

LAY - Hello Bud £35 @ 36.0

I backed Arbor Supreme at 70.0 a few weeks back. Without running, he is now 40.0 which gives me a free bet at 29/1 if I lay it. I could live to regret this one as he could potentially be amongst the market leaders if his season goes to plan but at this early stage I’m playing it safe.

LAY – Arbor Supreme £10 @ 40.0

Garde Champetre won a couple of weeks ago and initially his price shortened. However, since then, Enda Bolger has hinted quite heavily that he wont be considered for the National this season as he enjoys the twists and turns of cross country courses and will be raced on those.

Unfortunately, im not the only one to have read this and his price has drifted again. I can lay off the bet at a slightly shorter price than I backed him at so no harm done for what now looks like an unlilely runner

LAY – Garde Champetre £7 @ 100.0

I was keen on Merigo but his seasonal debut concerned me a little where he finished plum last. At the moment his OR wont get him in the race and he will need to win at least once this season to get in. I’ not going to get out of this one completely because I think he’s a live contender if he lines up but im probably a bit overexposed to him considering the race is so far away (£10 @ 116.34)

I can lay £4 of this @ 100.0

LAY – Merigo £4 @ 100.0

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Cane Brake interests me. TAAFFE EYEING NATIONAL BID By Nick Robson, Press Association Sport Cane Brake (IRE) Profile Click here to follow us on Twitter! Click here for more racing news Tom Taaffe is hoping to prepare both Treacle and Cane Brake for a crack at the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree next April. Treacle looked an early contender for top staying honours when winning the Munster National last month but he suffered a luckless run in the Troytown Chase at Navan on Sunday. The eight-year-old was hampered at the first fence and Taaffe admits it was too big an ask to recover lost ground in testing conditions. "He was nearly brought down twice at the first and got knocked all over," said Taaffe. "That put him a long way behind and in that ground it was always going to difficult to get back on terms. "In the circumstances he did well to finish sixth. He'll have a break now and we'll prepare him for a shot at Aintree in April." Cane Brake has not run over fences since finishing third in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas. The 10-year-old has had two starts over hurdles so far this term and Taaffe plans to stick with the smaller obstacles for the immediate future. "Cane Brake will stay hurdling for the minute as he is rated 30lb lower than over fences," added Taaffe. "He was a bit unlucky to only finish third the other day and he flew at the finish. "I think there is a nice hurdle prize or two to pick up with him, then we will go back over fences with Aintree the aim." Taaffe is also still aiming at the big prizes with Glenfinn Captain despite his distant fourth in the Clonmel Oil Chase last week. Glenfinn Captain won the race in 2008 but Taaffe believes events conspired against him in his bid to retain the title. He added: "He was just too free. They didn't go very quick and in the heavy ground you can't run with the choke out. "He's got a couple of options, the Hilly Way Chase at Cork and possibly the Dial-A-Bet at Leopardstown over Christmas."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Hoo La Baloo to be aimed at the National? Surely a non stayer i'd have thought? Pulled out of the Becher Chase and trading at 260.0 on betfair, i'll hold fire for now. ----------------------------------------------------- National sighter for Baloo Hoo La Baloo's owner Andy Stewart would like to see his horse tee up a possible bid for the John Smith's Grand National with a sighter in the Becher Chase at Aintree on Sunday. Stewart said: "He has been entered in the Becher and the idea is to give him a run over the big fences with a view to going for the National. "He is rated in the 140s so he should get a run in the National."

[kevsul]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 nice work so far AK :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Been a bit busy with a couple more backs at big prices, whch I will update tonight. I'll keep a keen eye on Old Benny in the 205 at Newbury today, who makes his comeback over hurdles. Wont be winning but a staying on run would be nice to see.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I’ve had a bit of money to play with after laying off some of these the other day and have backed a couple more at big prices.

Cane Brake £30 @ 94.66

To be aimed at the race according to the stable.

This isn’t the first time connections have been considering the National for him, he was entered last year but missed out due to injury and was also to be aimed at the 2007 version after winning 2 valuable chases in Ireland, the Troytown Chase ad the Paddy Power Chase, both over 3m on soft ground, the latter carrying top weight. In the end he ran in the Gold Cup finishing strongly to finish 5^th to Kauto Star and the Irish National in which he was pulled up.

He has had his fair share of injury problems and connections are wrapping him in kid gloves until closer to the race.

“Cane Brake will stay hurdling for the minute as he is rated 30lb lower than over fences,” added Taaffe.“

He was a bit unlucky to only finish third the other day and he flew at the finish.

“I think there is a nice hurdle prize or two to pick up with him, then we will go back over fences with Aintree the aim.”"

That suggests to me that he will be kept over hurdles until the National weights are released in February? This would protect his mark of 150, which should get him a weight of around 11 stone 2lb’s based on last years race.

Has won in a big field, should be ok stamina wise. The only concern is that he wants it soft.

Chief Dan George £3 @ 300.0

Was useful over hurdles and has been pretty consistent over fences in his short career. Was a good 5^th in the Scottish Grand National and ran respectably behind 2 high class chasers last time, giving them weight. I expect him to go well tomorrow at Newcastle and a decent run should see these odds contract. Stable have hinted he will go for the National so these odds look rather big.

Hoo La Baloo £3.49 @ 250.0

As stated earlier, I cant see this one staying well enough to be a serious contender come April but it seems like he is likely to run and if he does, he will be a shorter price than this. He has some top class form over shorter trips and is looking attractively handicapped on some of that form. Being trained by Paul Nicholls, he will be popular.

Over the Creek £2 @ 110.0

This one was entered for a race tomorrow and in anticipation of a good run, I backed him at 109/1. Unfortunately he has been pulled out which is a shame. Prior to his injury he was creating a good profile of a National contender, with some excellent form over long distance chases, most notably in his last race in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival 2008, finishing 2^nd to Old Benny. Rated 134, he would probably need another win to get into the race which is why I’ve only had a small bet so far but is a massive price if he can get back to his best.

Old Benny – Another one from the 2008 4 miler at Cheltenham (he won it but missed last season through injury too). Bearing in mind the 2009 winner Tricky Trickster is current GN favourite, he is one to keep an eye on. Ran a decent enough race over hurdles today and has a Welsh National entry. I’ve asked for a price on betfair, so will update if I get matched.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Please with Niche Market's performance in the Hennessy just now - 3rd at 33/1. Will go up a few lb's for that but nothing that would destroy its National chances. A trading opportunity beckons on that one.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Bob Buckler is plotting a route to the 2010 John Smith's Grand National with Niche Market after his heroic effort behind Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last Saturday. The Irish National winner was in the front rank alongside Denman for much of the race and was only beaten a little over seven lengths into third in a memorable finish. Boylesports make the eight-year-old their 16-1 favourite for the National, with Buckler assessing options that will take connections to Aintree on April 10. The Somerset handler said: "What a performance he put in - he is so genuine and tried his heart out. "He has come back fine and it is now just a case of seeing what we do now. "There is a graduation chase at Newbury at the end of December, the Welsh National is a possible or we could run him over hurdles. "It all depends on what the handicapper does with him after the weekend. "His owner is keen to have a go at the Gold Cup and the French National in May but the Grand National is his main aim and he could be nicely weighted in that." Niche Market has been cut to 25-1 from 33s for Aintree with Sky Bet, whose Matt Doyle said: "He has continued his progression from last season and after his Hennessy heroics last weekend has to be considered a serious National contender."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Niche Market must have a superb chance in the National after that run in the Hennessy. His rating has only gone up to 148, which is fine, he has the stamina, the class and still seems to be improving. I have laid off at 25.0 to give a nice free bet at 29.5/1 :ok

I have also laid some of my Mon Mome stake. I felt I got over exposed to this one and at an average back price of around 40/1, the upside to this is questionable. No horse since Red Rum has retained the National crown and off a rating of 161, Mon Mome is going to have his work cut out to do so.

I’ll leave a small exposure going as I do think he will trade at shorter than 40/1 closer to the day but not short enough to justify £25 stake.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Some entries:

Operation Houdini – 5/12 – Proudstown Hurdle

Operation Houdini – 27/12 - Paddy Power Chase

Operation Houdini – 28/12 – Welsh National

Hoo La Baloo – 5/12 – London National Chase

Over the Creek – 5/12 – Pertemps Hurdle

Cane Brake – 5/12 – Proudstown Hurdle

Cane Brake – 28/12 - Lexus Chase

Parsons Legacy – 5/12 – London National Chase

Merigo – 6/12 – Scottish Borders National

Merigo – 28/12 – Welsh National

Chief Dan George – 26/12 – King George V

Casey Jones – 26/12 – King George V

Casey Jones – 28/12 – Lexus Chase

Ballytrim – 27/12 – Paddy Power Chase

Ballytrim – 28/12 – Welsh National

Flintoff – 28/12 – Welsh National

Mon Mome – 28/12 – Welsh National

Hello Bud – 28/12 – Welsh National

Arbor Supreme – 28/12 – Welsh National

Iris de Balme – 28/12 – Welsh National

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 If no one has any objections, i'm going to move this to the At the Races Systems forum, it seems more appropriate.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Bollox, i forgot I wasnt a mod anymore :lol I'll get a mod to move it :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010

Bollox, i forgot I wasnt a mod anymore :lol I'll get a mod to move it :ok

Sorted it for you AK, you've put plenty of effort into this, no problems moving it in here as far as I can see. Good luck with it all come April, hopefully you'll be sat on a few "free bets". :ok

[jayalexander]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 This looks very interesting! Mind if I follow your lead?

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010

This looks very interesting! Mind if I follow your lead?

Not at all, you can do what you like mate, the more discussion about the race the better as far as im concerned. Good luck :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Injury rules State Of Play out until spring By Sam Lawrie1:39PM 3 DEC 2009 THE 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play faces a spell on the sidelines after sustaining an injury when pulled-up behind Denman in this year's race. RELATED LINKS

• » Grand National betting

"We found a problem in his lumber region and he is very sore,"said trainer Evan Williams on Thursday. "We've treated that but he will have to have a good break now and we won't see him until the spring." He added: "We're going to have to work away now and, hopefully, we can get him to the National." The nine-year-old finished fourth in last season's John Smith's Grand National and is a general 25-1 shot for next year's race.