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The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!!

Aykay1
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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 ive tried to lay off Over the Creek @ 100.0 as he is running in a hurdle race this afternoon so might get a bite. He is looking unlikey to get into the National so if I can get out of hi with my stake back i'll be happy.

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Over the Creek ran badly and hasnt looked like the same horse since he came back from his injury. I dont think he will be doing a Silver Birch or Comply or Die so that looks like £2 i'll have to write off. I successfully layed off another £20 on Niche Market @ 25.0. I think entries are due in next week :ok

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 really disappointed to lose Doncaster today with Trabolgan and Iris de Balme both due to run. Trabolgan needs to get his rating off before the weights are announced in a couple of weeks. I'm not sure 137 will be enough. A potential horse of interest in Joe Lively at Cheltenham. The trainer wants to give him an entry in the grand national "as long as he doesnt ruin his mark today". So i'm guessing if he wins today, he wont be entered in the National. Trading at 200+ so probably worth a bet. I'll see what happens.

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Have taken another look at Joe Lively – This season hasn’t on the face of it been great for him. Disappointed son his seasonal debut, then he ran as expected at 33/1 in the Hennessy behind Denman but disappointed last time out when the stable was under a cloud. They are running better now – 2 winners this week and 4 in the last 2 weeks.

Lets looks at some of the key GN historical trends for Joe Lively.

Age 11 – fine

Rated 149 – fine for now – 4 lbs below last winning mark and should get a weight of about 11 stone off that mark. He looks well handicapped on his best form but we don’t want that going up much. Mon Mome won off 148 last year but the other 3 places were filled by horses carrying 11 stone+

Won over 3 miles? – Yes, on 4 occasions. Stamina loos assured - has won at 3m 4f on soft at Cheltenham and 3m 2f on heavy at Cheltenham – noted as staying on strongly on both occasions.

Won a chase worth 17k or more? – Yes x 4

Won 3 chases – yes

Each of the last ten winners had had at least ten starts over fences and between four and six runs that season. – Fine on both counts – today will be his 4th start of the season.

RPR rating of 144 or greater? – Yes

He meets almost all of the key requirements for the race with the main concern being the weight. Fine for now but a good performance today will probably give him too high a rating for April. However at approx 240.0 on betfair at the moment and with him now looking likely to get an entry I am having an interest. If he was to win today, I’d still expect the price to shortern, despite damaging my confidence.

Joe Lively £12 @ 240.21

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I couldnt really have asked for a better race from Joe Lively - a staying on 3rd of 7. The handicapper cant raise him for that I wouldnt have thought which makes him a player for Aintree. I had my trigger finger over the "back" button during the race and bit the bullett when I saw him staying on strongly at the end, closing the gap on Carruthers in 2nd. Therefore, in total the bet stands at Joe Lively - £29 @ 184.67 Could this one be the saviour of the thread? It had been looking pretty dire :hope

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 23/32-31 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson 5/44-U33 ACCORDING TO JOHN (IRE) 10 Sir Robert Ogden Nicky Richards 22506-P AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Charlie Mann 03-P136 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill 00F421 ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST (IRE)10 Eileen Queally Paul Roche IRE 330-30U ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE 011231 BACKSTAGE (FR) 8 Capranny Stablestaff Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE 2P-4P15 BALLYFITZ 10 F J Mills & W Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies P6-5111 BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9 Cathal McGovern Colin McBratney IRE P01-1U0 BALLYTRIM (IRE) 9 Violet O'Leary Willie Mullins IRE FP-1P1P BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9 New Club Ladies Nigel Twiston-Davies 31F4-22 BELON GALE (IRE) 7 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson 5-31110 BERONI (IRE) 8 Margaret O'Rourke Willie Mullins IRE 6FF-1FU BIBLE LORD (IRE) 9 M Tedham Andy Turnell 2U136-2 BIG FELLA THANKS 8 Maggie Findlay & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls P151U-0 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE 51-63F3 BOYCHUK (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 314F-01 CAN'T BUY TIME (IRE) 8 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 03-635P CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11 Mount Temple Racing Sydicate Tom Taaffe IRE P15P-14 CASEY JONES (IRE) 9 Gillian Burke Noel Meade IRE 50PP/05- CERIUM (FR) 9 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy 143301- CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10 Mrs E Wright John Quinn F0-5260 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE 53414-0 CHIARO (FR) 8 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs 115-300 CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10 Maurice Chapman Jimmy Moffatt 31FU-36 CLOUDY LANE 10 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr 2F0-226 COE (IRE) 8 Trevor Hemmings Sue Smith 1/P002-0 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11 David Johnson David Pipe 043545 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11 Kings Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE 253-346 COSSACK DANCER (IRE) 12 The United Front Partnership Mark Bradstock 3P///3P10- DARKNESS 11 Lady Lloyd-Webber Charles Egerton 113-412 DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7 Allan McLuckie Willie Mullins IRE 201-423 DON'T PUSH IT (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 02U-301 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9 Thomas Gilligan Willie Mullins IRE PUPP/-21 DREAM ALLIANCE 9 The Alliance Partnership Philip Hobbs 111P20 DUERS (IRE) 8 Kate Kelly/Kate Ronan Paul Magnier IRE 00-1210 ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10 Guy Henderson Nick Mitchell P23-15P EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 02P5-01 ERIC'S CHARM (FR) 12 Martin St Quinton & Peter Deal Oliver Sherwood 0P03-40 FAASEL (IRE) 9 Hush Hush Partnership David Pipe P63/52-P FLINTOFF (USA) 9 Andrew Flintoff & Paul Beck Venetia Williams 112130- FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7 Cavan Developments Bloodstock Oliver McKiernan IRE 145-261 GALANT NUIT (FR) 6 David Parry Ferdy Murphy 4211-54 GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE) 11 J P McManus Tom Taaffe IRE P2-205P GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10 Gary Lever Jeremy Scott 11-035B HELLO BUD (IRE) 12 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies P31314/- IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10 L M Power & G D Peck Sean Curran 231110- IRISH INVADER (IRE) 9 Sackcloth & Ashes Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE U01-4U5 IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11 Caroline Beresford-Wylie Nigel Twiston-Davies 45-1552 JAYO (FR) 7 Peter Garvey Willie Mullins IRE 15-5003 JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11 Richard Dimond Colin Tizzard 2P6-53P KILBEGGAN BLADE 11 Kevin Doocey & Anne Doocey Tom George 6126-23 KILCREA CASTLE (IRE) 8 M O'Driscoll Emma Lavelle 212/0-00 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11 J P McManus Arthur Moore IRE 366//4-54 KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 10 Maine Syndicate Tom Taaffe IRE P-3PP46 KNOWHERE (IRE) 12 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 4116-6P KORNATI KID 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 1P1-013 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7 Glass Half Full Richard Lee 36244/-6 LENNON (IRE) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson 24-512P LORUM LEADER (IRE) 9 Dr Richard And Mrs L J Newland Dr Richard Newland 4/2D133- LOUPING D'AINAY (FR) 11 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR 43-3U24 MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE 101-324 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe 02P-253 MALJIMAR (IRE) 10 Jane Williams Nick Williams 61021-0 MERIGO (FR) 9 Raymond & Anita Anderson Green Andrew Parker 001-P34 MON MOME (FR) 10 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams 6P/6220- MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy 30-0123 MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 9 Karen Bowen Peter Bowen 553-205 MY WILL (FR) 10 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls 0/1P025/- NEW ALCO (FR) 9 D McGowan And S Murphy Ferdy Murphy 401-035 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 9 G Regan Bob Buckler 12-1F54 NOTRE PERE (FR) 9 Tilly Conway Jim Dreaper IRE 1P00-60 NOZIC (FR) 9 Sam Mcvie Paul Nicholls 2U1/P6P- OFFALY (IRE) 9 The Pole to Pole Partnership Pru Townsley P/1r40P- OFFICIER DE RESERVE (FR) 8 Seasons Holidays Venetia Williams 20-0U00 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 10 Brian Polly Charlie Swan IRE 2214/-0P OLD BENNY 9 Trevor Hemmings Alan King 0F2-305 OLLIE MAGERN 12 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies r-04205 ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Charlie Swan IRE 3025-05 OODACHEE 11 Modreeny Syndicate Charlie Swan IRE 4-61r01 OUR VIC (IRE) 12 David Johnson David Pipe 1342/-0P OVER THE CREEK 11 David Johnson David Pipe 3606-4F PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9 Joe Moran David Pipe 0/-P220P PAK JACK (FR) 10 The Pak Jack Partnership Richard Phillips 1P6-142 PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7 Alan Halsall Charlie Longsdon 4/1PF-50 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12 Rodney Offer Philip Hobbs F-051FP PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8 R J Bagnall Noel Meade IRE 000-330 PIRAYA (FR) 7 Terry Neill David Pipe 45-0600 POMME TIEPY (FR) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 3201-11 POSSOL (FR) 7 Neville Statham Henry Daly 100-000 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10 John D O'Donohue/Tom O'Leary Tom O'Leary IRE 13-0124 RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies 212//U1-2 ROULEZ COOL 7 Robert Waley-Cohen Robert Waley-Cohen 11U36U ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11 Dunsany Racing Syndicate Tony Martin IRE 56/-33P5 ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson 11411P SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE) 8 David Johnson David Pipe F3-1323 SIEGEMASTER (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE 0F-26r2 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Gordon Elliott IRE 456-232 SIZING AUSTRALIA (IRE) 8 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE 110322 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 0240UP- STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 9 Sir Robert Ogden Martin Todhunter 60/144-P STATE OF PLAY 10 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams 12/14P/-1 TARANIS (FR) 9 Angela Yeoman Paul Nicholls 03-0231 THE PACKAGE 7 David Johnson David Pipe 1/1///P6-4 TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson 1/3F-116 TREACLE (IRE) 9 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE 22121-2 TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls 11P/11-1 TRUST FUND (IRE) 12 Lord Daresbury Richard Barber 0-21150 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10 J P Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE P23041 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 0/13P/-FP WEE ROBBIE 10 P H Betts (Holdings) Ltd Nick Gifford P4F131 WHINSTONE BOY (IRE) 9 Whinstone Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I've had £8 @ 110.0 on Maljimar. He was No. 41 last year and conncections were gutted to miss out by one. Entered again and off a higher OR, he is sure to get into the race. He caught my eye at the Festival last year, getting caught on the line by Witchita Lineman in the WH Chase, usually a good pointer for Grand National hopefuls. He has stamina in his pedigree being a half brother to Nil Desperandum, who was favourite for this race a couple of years ago befor ehe was tragically killed. Last time out Maljimar ran a decent race over 31f, finishing 3rd of 16 beaten 3 lengths by Garde Champetre. He has a lot going for him and looks big at triple figure odds. The weights are out in a couple of weeks and will start laying some of these off between then and the race, as the liquidity in the market will make things easier after that point. I'm still hopeful I can get this all green - its going to be tight though and unfortuantely dependent on one or two horses prices contracting. Hello Cane Brake!!!!

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bowles10

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Ak, you can normally track back either that season or the season before and see how these horses progress to win win the National. I am in agreement with Maljimar definitely if the trainer can keep it fresh for the big one, but if he runs it at Cheltenham which connections may want him to, will that be a negative?

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010

YEAR

WINNER

PREVIOUS RUN

1999

BOBBYJO

No Cheltenham race, last run 17 march in a hurdle

2000

PAPILLON

No Cheltenham race, last run 19 march in a hurdle

2001

RED MARAUDER

No Cheltenham race, last run 24 Feb

2002

BINDAREE

WH Chase ">Ran at Cheltenham - 7th in the WH Chase

2003

MONTYS PASS

No Cheltenham race, last run 16 march in a hurdle

2004

AMBERLEIGH HOUSE

No Cheltenham race, last run 6 March

2005

HEDGEHUNTER

No Cheltenham race, last run 19 Feb

2006

NUMBERSIXVALVERDE

No Cheltenham race, last run 12 march in a hurdle

2007

SILVER BIRCH

Ran at Cheltenham - 2nd in the Cross Country Chase

2008

COMPLY OR DIE

No Cheltenham race, last run 23 Feb

2009

MON MOME

No Cheltenham race, last run 14 March

I thought I’d investigate it Bowles as Maljimar is almost certain to run at Cheltenham, with most of his best runs coming there. The table shows the last 10 winners and details of their previous run before the National.

Only 2 of the last 10 winners ran at the Festival - Bindaree and Silver Birch. Mon Mome ran during the Festival week but in a 4m chase at Uttoxeter.

I’m not sure if the results are conclusive or not. On balance I’d say you need a horse that hasn’t run at the festival although having said that, it wouldn’t put me off. I seem to remember Hedgehunter coming a 2 lengths 2nd to War of Attrition in the Gold Cup before he ran brilliantly in the 2006 National to finish 2nd under top weight so a tough race didn’t affect him too much either.

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 It’s been an eventful week or so, with entries confirmed – 111 in total. It’s of interest to go through the entries as it gives you an opportunity to work out which horses rated in the mid 130’s (the traditional cut off point) are likely to get a run. I’ve been a bit busy trading some of these as a result.

Trabolgan – I backed this one on the assumption that connections would try and get his rating up throughout the season but unfortunately it has worked out like that. This one is rated 137 and looking at the entries, I’d estimate that number 40 on the day will be around 138, so its going to be touch and go. Obviously the handicapper has a free licence in this race but I don’t really see why Trabolgan would run off anything other than 137. Basically, I’m worried he wont get a run so have layed £8 @ 73.75. I’ve left a token £2 backed @ 85.0 in case he sneaks in as I think he has a chance if he runs.

Joe Lively – I got quite excited about this one when he ran a couple of weeks ago – a staying on 3rd off a mark of 149, I thought would have been ideal as the handicapper wouldn’t raise him much from that – or so I thought. Joe Lively’s new rating is 155, which is simply too high for me. His stables comments before the race were a little worrying too, saying he would get an entry in the Grand National “as long as he doesn’t ruin his mark today”. Well in my opinion, he has ruined his mark and although he has been given an entry, it wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t line up. I’m in the process of laying him off, thankfully at a lower price than the 184.67 I have backed him at but nevertheless, I’m disappointed with the way that bet has turned out.

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Can’t Buy Time – He has been backed recently so have taken the opportunity to lay off some more. He has an each way chance in the National but nothing more than that. I have a free bet on him now anyway.

Niche Market – Narrowly beaten by Tricky trickster in the AON, which I guess will ruin his mark for the National. Previously on 148 which would have been ideal, I’d anticipate a new mark of around 154ish, which may be on the high side. Shame. Have now got twice my stake back on him and still showing a profit if he wins soo cant complain really.

Iris de Balme – A pleasing return over hurdles has seen his price half. His next appearance will be in the Eider Chase, which Comply or Die won on route to his National win. I haven’t laid any off yet as he looks to have come back from injury in good heart and a decent run in the Eider will see his price shorten even further.

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 One Cool Cookie – Have laid off £2 @ 160.0. There is talk that if War of Attrition gets an unfavourable weight in the GN, then he will miss the race in favour of the World Hurdle. If that happens it is likely that One Cool Cookie will run at Aintree in his place as he is owned by the same people (Giggingstown). I don’t see why they can’t both run but we’ll see what happens. Looking at it from the stable's (C Swan) point of view, both of their other entries, Offshore Account and Oodachee look unlikely to get in off their existing marks of 136 and 135 respectively so they should be keen to run him.

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Chief Dan George – rated 136 – unlikely to get in. Layed £2.90 @ 260.0

Merigo – I don’t know whats going on with this one as he has been backed from prices in the region of 400/1 down to 90/1. Rated 130, there is no way he is getting into the race off that mark unless I am missing something. He came 2nd in a hurdle race yesterday which wont do his mark any good so I don’t know where the money is coming from. Anyway, its good for me because I have been able to lay off £4 @ 100.0, which is £4 I’d written off. :)

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 It’s a speculative bet mate, but I’m almost certain he will line up. He is taking the same route as the stable’s CERIUM did last year (Gold Cup then Grand National) and he finished 5th. This is my original post with some of the reasoning why I think he will line up and why he perhaps isn’t a forlorn hope.

Previous experience over the Aintree fences is a bonus for the Grand National and Mr Pointment has that, having won the Becher Chase in 2007 and finishing 2nd to Black Apalachi in 2008. Following his win in 2007, he had a crack at the Grand National in the following April, and pulled up at the last fence when beaten, having raced up with the pace. The consensus from that is that he didn’t stay the trip, but I think that is debateable. He has enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest the trip is doable. His sire is Old Vic, who is also responsible for the likes of Black Apalachi, GN winner Comply or Die, Southern Vic and Chelsea Harbour. Of more note may be the fact he was hammered by the handicapper for his Becher win, and subsequently lined up for the National with a weight of 11 stone 11 lb’s (OR 155). Considering he was rated only 1 lb lower than the great Hedgehunter, it was a near impossible task for a chaser as inexperienced as he was at the time. By comparison 2 years later, he starts this season off an OR of 141, which would make him attractively weighted in the National, especially with another 2 years under his belt. His form over fences looks of a high enough level to make 141 a fair mark - his only disappointing runs were last time out over a trip too short and in his prep for the 2008 GN when he was found to have broken a blood vessel during the race. Otherwise he has form behind Hennessy 5th Gone to Lunch, and fellow National hopeful Don’t Push It. His 30 length+ 2nd of 3 behind Denman was understandable given he was only getting 3lb’s! So having missed the 2009 renewal, why do I think he will run in 2010? Basically there has been a change of ownership. Previously owned by a syndicate of hairdressers, he has now been bought by Mrs J E Wilson, the owner of the likes of Cerium and Arteea, who were given entries for last years race. Wilson attracted criticism for entering these perceived also-rans, as she was viewed as having runners for the sake of it and for the prestige of having an entry in the Grand National when the horses themselves were deemed to have no hope in the race. However, under the guidance of trainer Paul Murphy, both horses ran well to finish 5th and 10th respectively. Mr Pointment, as a result of the new ownership, has moved stables from Paul Nicholls to the aforementioned Paul Murphy. In my opinion, this bodes well for the prospects of an entry for Mr Pointment, who has better GN credentials than either of those two horses. An ex-Paul Nicholls winner of the Grand National that springs to mind is Silver Birch – can Mr Pointment repeat the feat? :loon

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Aykay1

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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Totaly agree with you on Possol BH, i think he will be a major player. Historically 7 year olds have a major disadvantage in this race because they invariably are so inexperienced, however Possol isnt typical of your average 7 y o GN entry - he has enough races under his belt to not make his age a factor. Unfortunately i've missed the boat with him with regards to getting a big early price. i was considering backing him at 40/50.0 but whilst i was dilly-dallying the price got slashed so is only in the mid twenties now. I might back him on the day, but not for the purposes of this thread. With the French Bred trend being smashed in recent years, maybe its the turn of the 7 year old stat to be smashed this year with Possol :loon

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Aykay1

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I’ve had a play around with the spreadsheet to show the profit/loss on all the horses i’ve had an interest in. The number is colour coded as per the betfair website, so those horses showing a profit are in green, with losses shown in red.

The crucial figure, which will determine whether this thread has been a success or not, is the one at the bottom, highlighted in yellow, currently -£46.17.

I need to get this figure to AT LEAST £0 before the antepost market closes a couple o days before the race. That will give me a number of “free bets” on the race itself. One or two of these have the potential to contract in price even further so I’m hopeful this can be a success. I’m pleased at the moment because things were looking pretty dodgy about 2-3 weeks ago.

A big day tomorrow with the weights announced :hope

Updated spreadsheet below.

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