The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Abbeybraney £5 @ 230.0 I backed this one last year off the back of some good looking novice chasing form behind Weapons Amnesty and Barbers Shop. There were also noises from the stable last year that he was considered a National horse however he was pulled out at the last minute in order to give stablemate Royal Rosa a run, who otherwise would have missed out. Maybe they were conscious of Abbeybraneys novice status and hence his inexperience. A year on, I’d say its likely he’ll be given another entry and wouldn’t be unfancied if he was to line up. Rated 137, I still think that underestimates his ability and he should be able to improve on that. He would need to improve if he wants to get into the race. It was encouraging that trainer Howard-Johnson included him as one of his “10 to follow” in the RP competition, I believe the only horse he included from his own stable so he obviously fancies Abbeybraneys chances of winning a couple of races this year.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Big Fella Thanks £10 @ 29.0 This one started 10/1 joint favourite last year and ran a creditable 4th , seeming to run out of gas in the closing stage, like he did when he finished 6th in 2009 (on a side note, this is the only time he has finished out of the frame in his career, when completing the race – very consistent). There are similarities to Hedgehunter, who was 3rd when taking a tired fall at the final fence at the age of 8 – running out of steam. Horses tend to get more stamina as they age and Hedgehunter duly finished 1st and 2nd in his GN runs over the next 2 years. Whether or not that is an omen for BFT remains to be seen but his two performances at 7 and 8 bode well if he was to run this year. He certainly loves the Aintree fences anyway. He isn’t a certainty to run, Ferdy Murphy would be concerned about his handicap mark if he was to run well in the Hennessy. I’d tend to agree with him but theres no doubt that if he was to run well then the 29.0 wouldn’t last regardless of the effect it would have on his GN prospects and I should be able to lay off. He runs today in a winnable looking race, so I’ll have an eye on that too.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! STATE OF PLAY TEAM EYE NATIONAL TILT By Keith Hamer, Press Association Sport Grand National 2011- Antepost: State Of Play 28/1 State of Play Profile Evan Williams Profile Click here to follow us on Twitter! Click here for more racing news State Of Play will shortly return to the Evan Williams stable to be prepared for a third crack at the John Smith's Grand National. The 11-year-old will go straight to Aintree without a prep run as he bids to improve on his fourth in the 2009 renewal and his third last April. He had just one outing last term when pulled up in the Hennessy at Newbury in November, before taking minor honours behind Don't Push It. State Of Play is currently doing roadwork at his owners William and Angela Rucker's base in Worcestershire before going back in training with Williams at Llancarfan in the Vale of Glamorgan. "He's been doing his roadwork with Mr and Mrs Rucker and they have been very happy with him," said Williams. "He's going to come back to us probably in two weeks' time. That was the plan, that he did his roadwork there, as he always does then he'll come back to us and we want him really for the first week of December to start cantering here and he'll be aimed straight for the Grand National. "When he finished the race last year I said he'd go straight there. "I know we are probably trying to do the impossible, but the race suits him and the preparation suits him, and anything can happen in the Grand National. "It's so important to get him there in the best of form and the handicapper might just give him a little bit more of a chance again this year. He might drop him a few pounds and we could sneak in there off a handy weight. "That's the plan and that's what we are trying to achieve."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Notre Pere £6 @ 100.0 Was entered last year but was pulled out after losing his form. He didn’t really show up at all last year. High class at his best – 3rd in the 2008 Irish National and winner of the 2008 Welsh national, therefore stamina is assured. He has top class form that saw his rating reach 167. Now down to 150 after last season’s disaster, he is starting to look attractively handicapped if he can find something like his old form. His reappearance earlier this month was better, staying on over a shorter than ideal trip of 2m 6f. Parsons Pistol £5 @ 180.0 An out and out stayer, related to Scottish National winner Merigo. The National is definitely being considered for him judging by the trainers quotes after his victory at Fairyhouse in November 2009. "He needs extreme distances and he does like testing conditions. We will probably need to look at races in the UK for him and he could be a Grand National horse," said Meade. Off 134 he needs to improve but has the potential to. Mobaasher £5 @ 250.6 The Racing Post stable tours were a good read and in Venetia Williams’ analysis of Mobaasher, she describes him as “a thorough stayer” and said whilst the Welsh national was a likely target, the Grand National “had been talked about”. She knows how to win a Grand National, with Mon Mome and he was a horse who followed the Welsh National to Aintree route. Maybe Mobaasher will take the same route then? Rated 157, he was a good hurdler over trips in the region of 3 miles and looks to be on his way to a successful chasing career, finishing 5th in the 4 miler at the festival last year, noted as staying on, albeit past tired horses. At 249/1, worth an interest :ok Any Currency £1.50 @ 70.0 I put an order up for £5 at 70.0 for this one, expecting a big run from him on Saturday in the Morson Chase over 3m 3f at Cheltenham. The good news is that he ran a great race to finish a staying on 2nd, the bad news is that I only got £1.50 matched! Only beaten 4 ¾ lengths in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival, stamina shouldn’t be a problem although his official rating might. Rated 132 prior to Saturday’s race, he needs a couple more good runs to get him into the Grand National, for which the stable are very keen on entering him. For that reason I wont be topping up at the prices available (about 50.0). Whinstone Boy £8 @ 95.0 Was entered last year but didn’t get into the race and will most likely be given another entry. Looks an improver based on last seasons form, beating Leanne who has since franked the form. Needs it soft but will be amongst the market leaders if the rain was to come.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! There’s two races over the National fences at Aintree this weekend - in the Grand Sefton Chase and perhaps more importantly for Grand National prospects, the Becher Chase, over 3m 2f. Both races provide trainers with the opportunity to enter horses they feel might be Grand National prospects and give them experience over the National course. The Becher would be more geared towards attracting stayers and therefore Grand National hopefuls. A look at last year’s Becher line up shows that from the 8 runners, 5 ran in the Grand National itself, with Royal Rosa and Palypso de Creek helped by the handicapper to get into the race. I suppose the most significant thing from my point of view is that a good run in the Becher will generally mean that a National entry follows and more importantly, a drastically shortened price in the ante post market. From looking at the initial entries, the good news is that my existing bets are pretty well represented. J There are entries for: Abbeybraney, Notre Pere, Maljimar, Whatuthink, One Cool Cookie, In Compliance and Fabalu. Hopefully most of those will run for me. :hope Merigo, whom I haven’t backed for the Grand National is the favourite and being the winner of 2 decent Grand National trials already in the Eider Chase and Scottish Grand National, he would be close to favourite if he shows up well here. However the stable have said he will be aimed at the Scottish National again if he doesn’t show up well on Sunday which makes his current price in the mid twenties of no appeal really. This has led to some topping up of said bets, which I’ll post up a bit later tonight.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Notre Pere £4 @ 100.0 Connections were choosing between this and the Troytown chase in Ireland. It has come to light today that he doesn’t have an entry for the latter so it seems certain he will run in the Becher. If he can build on his promising frst run of the season, then he can show up well here and become a force in the National betting. Abbeybraney £4 @ 135.0 In my eyes, this entry is cConfirmation that the Grand National is the aim this season after being considered too young last season. Fabalu £2 @ 160.0 His participation in April would depend on a good showing here but everything he has done so far suggests he can run well. In Compliance £3 @ 200.0 Dessie Hughes has won the last two runnings of the Becher with Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi so its obvious that In Compliance must be respected as his sole runner this year. Ran in the Topham last year and ran well, liked the fences and stayed on at the end – perfect for this. He has a staying pedigree so hopefully will run well. One Cool Cookie £5 @ 220.0 Entered for the Grand National the last two years (and backed by me!) but was pulled out because trainer was unhappy with the weight allocated. He has slipped down the ratings and could be given something more feasible this year. The National again looks like a race that connections are toying with the idea of entering him in.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! LAY - Killyglen £5 @ 110.0

Has a new stable this year and it was his old trainer who acknowledged he may be a Grand National type. This is probably still the case but I can find no indication that he will be aimed at the race from new connections. I can secure a 49/1 free bet by laying hat 110.0

LAY – Neptune Collonges £5 @ 200.0

Similar to Killyglen, in that there is no indication he will be aimed at the race. I backed him at 355/1 on a hunch that he may be aimed at the National if he doesn’t come back the force of old. Having shrunk to 199/1 it seems like a good opportunity to secure a c.150/1 free bet.

LAY – In Compliance £8 @ 110.0

Have backed this at prices averaging 236/1. I was going to hold off laying this one until after he ran in the Becher Chase as a good performance there would see his price contract even more. A quote from Dessie Hughes in the RP has persuaded me to lay off earlier though.

I was hoping to go to the Becher Chase with him but he got a bit of a setback and is a couple of weeks behind. He’ll be going for handicap chases and could be an Aintree horse. He saves a bit for himself these days and is probably best fresh. He’s back down to a reasonable mark and is even lower in England so we might go back and forth a bit.

So he wont be running in the Becher Chase on Sunday, which is a blow, however Aintree is in the trainers mind, which is a positive. A 126/1 free bet locked in for now.

Character Building

I had a bit of a mad moment and hastily backed Character Building at 44.0 then decided it wasn’t really a value price so layed him off again. He’s one I think can play a part with a better prep this season but 44.0 isnt a tempting price. I might come back to him later.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Notre Pere on trial for National in Becher Chase By Andrew Scutts 10:44AM 19 NOV 2010 NOTRE PERE will have 16 rivals in Sunday's Becher Chase as he bids to justify hopes that he can develop into a John Smith's Grand National contender. RELATED LINKS

• Grand National betting
• Becher Chase card

The nine-year-old heads the weights for Sunday's Totesport-sponsored contest on 11st 12lb, with Gullible Gordon, Maljimar and Whatuthink next at 11st 3lb. Notre Pere's presence means that half a dozen of the runners in the 3m2f BBC2-televised chase are out of the weights. Gullible Gordon's Paul Nicholls-trained stabelmate Meanus Dandy is 8-1 favourite with Betfred.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Final declarations in for the Becher and its mixed news.

IN are: Notre Pere, Maljimar, Whatuthink and One Cool Cookie.

NON RUNNERS are: Abbeybraney, Fabalu and In Compliance

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Arbor Supreme declared for the Troytown and Chief Dan George for the Betfair Chase. I dont think either will win (CDG is a big outsider) but a staying on finish will do nicely.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Have layed Notre Pere @ 40.0. I guess someone is anticipating a big run from him today . Therefore a free bet of 60.0 locked in for the big one in April :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Placed a few bets in running during the Becher on Sunday so there’s some updating to do. The result was a bit mixed. I’m absolutely kicking myself for not backing Hello Bud at a triple figure price ante-post. Even if he didn’t win he looked nailed on to run a big race and he is now trading at prices in the region of 30.0. Having said that, whilst it would have provided a nice free bet, I cant see him being the eventual winner at Aintree in April – he was 5th last year off a mark of 140 at 12 years of age. I’d imagine he will be given a mark equivalent to that for this years race and at 13 years of age its hard to see him improving enough to win. He’d be a popular winner if he did. Of those I had already backed, Whatuthink looks a goner. He fell early on and fractured his jaw in the process. That will mean a lengthy spell on the sidelines and realistically scuppers any chance he had of running at Aintree in April. I had backed him for £5 @ 264.0 and managed to lay off £5 @ 212.0 after he fell so no harm done and a free bet if he does miraculously turn up in April. Maljimar fell at the 2nd fence and having backed him for £9.50 @ 51.67 before the race, he has now drifted to 60.0. His jumping is a worry – that’s twice he has taken a tumble over the National fences now so I imagine that would be a concern for connections. I don’t want to lay off now but will try and monitor what plans are for him now. More positively, One Cool Cookie stayed on well after getting detached to take 3rd and Notre Pere took 5th. Having backed One Cool Cookie for £5 @ 220.0, I was very happy to lay £4 @ 32.0 just after the race. He has drifted out to a more realistic 60.0 now but he must have claims if he runs. He has never fallen, took to the National fences ok, was staying on at the end and has Old Vic as a sire, who is fast becoming a “sire to follow” in this race. I cant make up my mind about Notre Pere. On the face of it, he stayed on ok into 5th place having been hampered at a couple of his fences, however I’m still a little disappointed with the run. I feel he should have been involved in the finish from a mark 1lb lower than he won the Welsh National off and on ground he would have liked. He has been slashed to odds in the region of 25.0 and I’m more than happy to get out, having backed him for £10 at 100.0. Therefore I have layed £26 @ 32.62. There is still no guarantee he will run (he would need it soft) and it leaves me in the green if he does. Away from the Becher chase, I have layed Bluesea Cracker for £5 @ 46.0. Having backed her at 65.0 I would have a 20/1 fre bet on an Irish National winner if she makes it to Aintree. I hear connections aren’t keen, hence the caution in laying him. Irish National runner up Oscar Time has now been backed for £4.58 @ 54.37. He just finished 2nd in a hurdle over 2m6f, a respectable start to the season. Whether he will be aimed at Aintree remains to be seen but he has all the credentials to run well and is still on a decent mark. Ballabriggs, runs in a hurdle race tomorrow and I have topped up him. Chief Dan George was outclassed behind Imperial Commander on Saturday. Expected really and I wouldn’t read too much into that run. He is still very much of interest to me. Arbor Supreme ran a distinctly average race in the Troytown finishing midfield having never threatened. He has a Welsh National entry. I’ll put up the new spreadsheet at the weekend. I’m out tonight and tomorrow night :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! To summarise: LAY - Whatuthink £5 @ 212.0 LAY - One Cool Cookie £4 @ 32.0 LAY - Notre Pere £26 @ 32.62 LAY - Bluesea Cracker £5 @ 46.0 BACK - Oscar Time £4.58 @ 54.37 BACK - Ballabriggs £3 @ 34.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! :) Swan keen on Cookie for National

One Cool Cookie will be geared towards the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree in April following his encouraging run in the Becher Handicap Chase on Sunday. The nine-year-old was having his first outing over the unique fences on Merseyside and stayed on to claim third behind Hello Bud. Trainer Charlie Swan said: "He ran a good race, but he was just a bit reluctant early on. The plan would definitely to enter him in the National, but we'll probably give him a bit of break now - he might go hunting for a day or two - because he's had three runs this season." Swan added: "We might even look at running him in a banks race first, just to change things round a little bit. He goes on any kind of ground so that's another positive looking to next year."

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! I have backed Niche Market off the back of a highly encouraging Hennessy run last weekend - 5^th beaten 16 lengths behind Diamond Harry. The time of the race was good, and the horses round him were potential Gold Cup candidates so the form looks strong. Winner of the Irish National 2 years ago, he was fancied for the English version and was going well before a mistake at Bechers cut his leg; he was ultimately pulled up. He went up 1lb to 149 for his run in the Hennessy, 3 lbs lower than when running in the Grand National last year and only 1lb higher than when beaten a short head in the Aon Chase. His mark will be protected until the National weights come out – 149 looks ideal. 26/1 doesn’t leave much manouver for trading but I think its on the large side so I’ll get involved.

Niche Market £15 @ 27.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! The National Hunt Chase over 4 miles has historically been a good pointer for future Grand National types with the likes of Tricky Trickster and Butlers Cabin well fancied. With last years winner Poker de Sivola highly unlikely to go for Aintree, it may pay to look at the runner up Becauseicouldntsee. I considered him a couple of months ago but there was talk he would go for the Irish version instead. This interview with the trainer is encouraging and I have taken 87/1. He needs to go up a few pounds to get into the race but he is unexposed and has the potential to do so.

Becauseicouldntsee £5 @ 88.0

------------------------------- Noel Glynn is yet to decide whether Becauseicouldntsee, who is as short as 20-1 in the betting for the Coral Welsh National, will run in the Chepstow showpiece on December 27. The lightly-raced seven-year-old has an alternative entry in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on the same day and his Co. Clare handler says the weather will determine where he heads. He told sportinglife.com: “It all depends on the ground. He handles any ground but Gonebeyondrecall, who is also entered at Leopardstown, needs good ground.” “He (Becauseicouldntsee) would have 11 stone in that race but he’s also in the Welsh National where he’d be thrown in there with bottom weight. “He’ll go where the other one (Gonebeyondrecall) doesn’t.” The gelding’s previous run on these shores resulted in a fine second to Poker De Sivola in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup at the Festival and he has pleased his trainer since. He explained: “At Cheltenham when he was second to in the four miler he actually pulled a shoe off at the start. He ran in three shoes which was a very difficult task and I thought he might have done himself an injury but he came out of it great. “He’s a huge horse – over 17 hands tall. I gave him the whole summer off and then ran him over hurdles the other week and he ran a blinder. He’d never run over hurdles in his life but i just wanted to get him ready for Christmas.” Looking further ahead his experienced handler has a plan in mind for the gelding, with a trip to Aintree in April very much on the agenda. “The main target with him is the Grand National in April. That’s his number one target because he jumps, he stays and he has a turn of foot. He won a bumper at Killarney 18 months ago so he’s not slow but he stays forever,” Glynn added.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Ballabriggs drifted a little so I have topped up on him and I have also topped up on Chief Dan George after confirmation that Aintree is indeed the aim. ---------------------------------------- National the Chief concern Published at 13:07, Friday, 03 December 2010 DAN’S THE MAN: Trainer James Moffatt with Grand National hope Chief Dan George at his Cartmel stables JON GRANGER REF: 50013062B000CONFIDENCE is still high Cartmel horse Chief Dan George can make a Grand National impact in 2011. Trainer James Moffatt’s mount came home seventh of seven in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month, behind winner Imperial Commander. But Moffatt is positive about Chief Dan’s prospects at Aintree come April after the antepost odds released this week show him as a 40/1 shot for the National. “The National is the ultimate aim. He ran the other week, but if it hadn’t been the Betfair Chase we wouldn’t have run,” said Moffatt. “The ground had gone very sticky and soft for us, but as it was his first run, we thought we would give him a pop round. “That was basically what happened. We didn’t put him under any pressure, we just wanted a race in him. “We know he is a better horse in the spring, but he came out of the race perfectly well and perfectly happy. “He is a horse who is a slow builder, he builds up gradually through the season and the Grand National is the aim. “He is in rude health and he is in great form. We know him well enough now not to worry about things this early in the season. “The Grand National certainly seems a long way away at the minute though!” Before his venture to Liverpool, Moffatt plans to run Chief Dan at the Cheltenham Festival, after success at the same venue last year. The 10-year-old was a shock winner of the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase in March, coming in at odds of 33/1 in a 24-horse field. Any decision on that race, or others in the new year, will be made with the National in mind though. While Vic Venturi is 16/1 favourite and Niche Market is 20/1 in the antepost odds, Chief Dan’s 40/1 shot shows he has a chance when the entries have still to be declared. Moffatt is keen, therefore, not to burden his stable star with too much weight with successes in chases. “He will almost certainly go to Cheltenham before Aintree, possibly in the race he won last year, the William Hill Handicap Chase,” said the 38-year-old trainer. “It will depend on where his handicap mark is though and what he is doing over fences. “We want to protect his chase mark a little more now, with the Grand National in mind. “We wouldn’t rule out hurdle races, but to protect his mark – because he is up to a point now where he is guaranteed to get in the National – we would think about chases. We wouldn’t want him having any more weight than he has now. “The horse does improve well in the spring and I wouldn’t want him to have any more weight than he does. “Horses don’t win the Grand National off 12 stone. Between 10 and 11 stone is usually the winning weight and you don’t often win with more than that. “I prefer to be around the 10st to 10st 7lbs mark for a race like that.”

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Nicholls has ruled out entering Denman for the National. He likes Niche Market and The Tother One for the race at the moment.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! BIG FELLA ON NATIONAL TRAIL By Ashley Iveson, Press Association Sport Grand National 2011- Antepost: Big Fella Thanks 25/1 Big Fella Thanks Profile Ferdy Murphy Profile Click here to follow us on Twitter! Click here for more racing news Big Fella Thanks remains firmly on course for a tilt at the Grand National in the spring despite crashing out in the Hennessy Gold Cup. The eight-year-old was considered a major contender for the Newbury feature but only made it as far as the third fence before parting company with Graham Lee. His trainer Ferdy Murphy reports his charge to be none the worse for that mishap and the remainder of his campaign will be geared around a trip to Aintree, where he finished fourth in the National last season. "He's fine and he'll probably have a run over hurdles in January somewhere," said the West Witton handler. "After that he'll probably go for the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury, which he won last year, before going back to Aintree for the National."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Parsons Pistol has drifted badly since I backed him - 180.0 to 420.0. No entries, no mention of him in the trainers stable tour - is he ok? :unsure

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Back – Don’t Push It - £10 @ 27.0 Last year’s winner, I’d say is almost certain to be partnered by Tony McCoy again and it is due to the McCoy factor that, I think the price will contract further, especially if he gets Sports Personality of the Year. DPI Is likely to be top weight this year, which isn’t ideal so will have to improve to figure however, we’ve seen horses with welter burdens go close before. Lay – One Cool Cookie - £5 @ 44.0 Just laying some more of this off at a small price, having backed at 200.0+

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Hmm, sorry about the double post. Not sure what happened there. One of the reasons I backed Fabalu was becaue he was due to run in the Becher Chase and then in the Welsh National. Given a good show in those, McCain was keen to explore the Grand National itself. As a progressive staying chaser I thought he had a good chance of being a live contender. Well, he was pulled out of the Becher and is now a non-runner in the Welsh National too, having been pulled out this week. It doesnt bode too well, which is a shame. I'll try and find out whats wrong with him :(

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Vic Venturi runs at Fairyhousae today

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Vic Venturi was a non runner :\ Whinstone Boy declared in Ireland tomorrow

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! The weathers playing havoc with this :\ I've got a bit of updating to do, i'll try and get it done before I leave for footie tonight.