The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Back - Taranis - £8 @ 150.0

Back - Carruthers - £7 @ 200.0

It was interesting to read handicapper Phil Smiths post Hennessy notes.

Although the connections of many of the horses from Saturday are saying that they do not have handicaps as their target at present, who knows how that might change because of the weather and we have to be ready with competitive handicap marks. Carruthers also has never won a handicap so he has been dropped from 156 to 148. Anyone fancy him in a good handicap off that mark now? Taranis is down from 160 to 153, Weird Al from 156 to 152 and Barbers Shop from 156 to 148. Many of the above have been running with great credit in Grade 1 races but without success. It is my job now that they have failed in a handicap to get them competitive in their next one.

Taking two of the horses he mentions, Taranis got an entry last year but was pulled out through injury. He meets a lot of the historical trends for a race like this and given Paul Nicholls multiple entry approach to this race, it would be no surprise to see him given another entry this year. If he does, we have a horse that was considered a Gold Cup hopeful running off a mark in the region of 153, which would make him a danger.

Carruthers falls just short of top class however a 4^th in the Gold Cup and 6^th in the Hennessy is very respectable by anyones standards and a rating of 148 seems to underestimate him. He is an out and out galloper and appears to relish longer trips. He gave Big Fella Thanks a 23 length beating last year over 3 miles on heavy ground and 199/1 is a big price on that admittedly small sample of form.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Back - Siegemaster £5 @ 140.0

Lay – Vic Venturi – £5 @ 60.0

Dessie Hughes was double handed last year with Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi. Whilst the former will run again this year, Hughes is toying with the idea of aiming Vic Venturi higher than handicaps – he is entered in the Lexus for example.

The Hennessy was the intention but I think it’s going to come a bit soon. He might be able to take on those better horses in races like the Lexus – I think that’s the way we’ll be going this year – although if a horse like Denman took his chance in therace he’d run in the National again.-15/11/10.

The emergence of Siegemaster could be a factor in that decision as here is a horse who can run off a lower mark than Vic Venturi who seems to be well equipped to run in a race such as the National. He typically lumbers big weights is some of the big staying chases in Ireland and performs well- for example, a 2^nd in the Paddy Power Chase behind Oscar Time, giving him 1 stone but only beaten 7 lengths. Or a 3^rd in the Thystes chase behind Whinstone Boy (beaten 3 lengths and giving the winner 25lb’s) is also good looking form. He doesn’t appear to have carried below 11 stone in his life but a current rating of 145, would give him something like 10 stone 10 lb’s in the Grand National.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Lay – Don’t Push It - £10 @ 24.0

Lay – Big Fella Thanks – £10 @ 24.4

I’ve taken a bit of a u-turn with these two as in hindsight, I’m not exactly sure what I was trying to achieve backing them at short prices. I thought Don’t Push It was worth a dabble due to the Mc Coy factor. and whilst I still think he will go off shorter than 26/1 on the day, any plunge will happen on the day rather than the antepost markets.

I backed Big Fella Thanks hoping for a big run in the Hennessy, in which he fell. Therefore there is little scope between now and the race for his price to fall substantially so I’ll get out now at a slightly shorter price.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Notre Pere, Vic Venturi and Siegemaster all run in Ireland today.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! All three were likely to find that kind of race too much and all ran satisfactory races to finish 6th 7th and 8th. It seems Notre Pere is regressing though, he would have been competitive in this a couple of years ago. Dessie Hughes has implied Vic Venturi will now be aimed at the National. I dont know where that leaves Siegemaster (i'd guess in the Irish National?) but it makes me regret my decision to lay off Vic Venturi. Hey ho. Onto today and I have hurdles outings for Oscar Time and Ballytrim and Becauseicouldntsee is favourite for the Paddy Power Chase. The latter needs to get his handicap mark up to get into the GN so a big run is needed. Oscar Time is having a spin over hurdles to keep him fresh and protect his chase mark, whilst Ballytrim needs to get his chase mark up too so im a bit concerned that he wont have the chance to do that here. I'm liking Oscar Time more and more - Its looking certain he is being aimed at Aintree and I may top up prior to him running today.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Ballytrim finished down the field in the hurdle. He needs a good chase performance between now and Feb to get his mark up a bit. Oscar Time ran well in 6th, up with the pace but getting outpaced when thing started to hot up, before staying on nicely. I've backed him again. I was delighted with BecauseIcouldntsee's 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase. Considering last years runner up was raised 6lb's, BICS should get a similar rise which would put him near the bottom of the weights for Aintree. He is now available to back at 34.0 on betfair so pleased with the 88.0. I cant see anything of interest today but New Years Day should have a couple to watch :ok Happy New Year!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Killyglen is runing over hurdles in Ireland today. Taranis is interesting tomorrow. Having backed him at 150.0, he has drifted badly to prices well into the 200's so I have topped up. I'm sure he will get an entry if last year is anything to go by. I wouldnt want him winning tomorrow as he is starting to look well handicapped but a staying on place will do nicely. I'll post up the latest table tomorrow :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! LOTS of interest today :) Taranis, Maljimar, In Compliance, Whinstone Boy all run. I will probably get involved with Character Building if he runs well at Cheltenham too. I'll have my finger hovering over the back button during that race! For the record, I have had another £12 on Taranis and £10 on Oscar Time. I'll post a more complete table later.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Some good news from paul Nicholls blog about his potential National entries. He mentions Niche Market, Taranis and Neptune Collonges as likely entrants :) ------------------------- Grand National 2011: Breathing operations hold the key to my chances

Ante-Post Plans / Paul Nicholls / 31 December 2010 / 2 Comments

Could Niche Market be Paul's first National winner?

"Niche Market joined us in the summer and, after an early fall at Wincanton, he ran an excellent fifth in the Hennessy. And that run looks incredibly good when his breathing may have been holding back that day. So I can reveal here that we immediately sent him for a breathing operation after Newbury."

Considering he has never won the big one at Aintree quotes of 10-1 for a Nicholls-trained horse crossing the line first look a little skinny but could recent operations make the difference next April?

I see that I am quoted at 10-1 in a couple of places to win the 2011 Grand National.

Given my record in the National - I think I am 0 from 40-odd, though I did finish second with Royal Auclair in 2005, and have had my share of hard luck stories (haven't we all though!) - I should be bloody 100-1 to win it in 2011!

But AP finally did it in 2010 and there are at least six sound reasons why I could be worth a bet at 10-1 to break my Aintree duck.

And the main reason why I might just win it in 2011 could be Niche Market.

He was a 16-1 chance when pulled up in the race when with Bob Buckler last season. But he joined us in the summer and, after an early fall at Wincanton, he ran an excellent fifth in the Hennessy.

And that run looks incredibly good when his breathing may have been holding back that day. So I can reveal here that we immediately sent him for a breathing operation after Newbury.

He has just come back in and he will have one more run - maybe a 2m4f handicap chase or possibly even a novice hurdle, probably in late February or March - before going to Aintree.

Obviously, his form going into the National last season and his Hennessy run in November has not been lost on many, as he is prominent in the betting at 26.0.

But it could just be that his breathing operation can make a big difference.

And I have plenty of other horses being aimed at the race, too.

Tricky Trickster has also had a breathing operation since his poor run at Cheltenham in November, and he has Aintree in mind again along with Taranis, the Tother One, Neptunes Collonges and Meanus Dandy. And there could be more, too.

So there could be worse bets in 2011 than backing me at 10-1 to win the 2011 Grand National.

You may well join me in being disappointed when I don't!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Taranis fell 2 fences out when in the leading bunch. He wouldnt have won but was in contention for a place. He is fine after his fall and this counts as a good run. With the news in Nicholls blog that he will be considered for Aintree he will end up shorter than the prices I have got, which is good news. Maljimar fell on his debut but got round safely here. Character Building ran much better than last time out and stayed on well. He did well to finish 7th in last years race after an interrupted preparation and with a proper prep this time round (he has raced 3 times already this season, compared to just once last season) he can be expected to improve. I want to back him but want bigger than the 50.0 available. Whinstone Boy was 3rd in Ireland after front running. he will defend his Thystes Chase crown next time out which is a recognised National trial. He looks more likely to get into the Grand National this year, rated 139, although it will still be close. In Compliance was 4th and was a bit disappointing but it could be that he needs further than 2m 5f nowadays ;)

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! I thought I’d post a quick summary of the thread so far.

A glance at the table shows that compared to this time last year, I have a bigger deficit; £213 compared to £148.28, however a large part of that is represented by a handful of horses. Its starting to look like the success of this thread will rest on the likes of:

Ballabriggs - £35 @ 36.3 (last price matched @ 34.0)

Oscar Time - £48 @ 44.2 (last price matched @ 40.0)

Chief Dan George £45 @ 53.7 (last price matched @ 70.0)

Taranis - £18 @ 218.5 (last price matched @ 150.0)

Maljimar - £15.50 @ 51.9 (last price matched @ 80.0)

The good news is that I’m comfortable with that quintet at the moment. Ballabriggs should be out in a hurdle soon, sooner rather than later hopefully. Oscar Time has already run two pleasing races over hurdles and is still backable at prices in the region of 38.0 to 40.0. CDG doesn’t really peak until the spring – I’d be tempted to back again at bigger prices to get the average back price up. Taranis is definite value at 200.0+ and should be tradeable over the next couple of months. Maljimar jumped better on New Years Day and after looking unlucky at Aintree last year, hopefully will be given another entry.

The concern is those horses who haven’t appeared yet and I cant find plans for:

Fabalu £11 @ 157.6 (last price matched = 100.0)

Abbeybraney £9 @ 187.8 (last price matched = 500.0)

Mumbles Head £5 @ 200.0 (last price matched = 180.0)

Parsons Pistol: £5 @ 180.0 (last price matched = 280.0)

The combined stakes on that quartet amounts to £30, which I will need to lay off sharpish, unless I hear anything concrete about their plans for this season. Fabalu and Abbeybraney seem to have had problems, they both had entries for the Becher Chase and the Welsh GN but have been withdrawn from both races, which is a concern. I don’t know what is going on with the other two but they had both run by this time last year so I guess it’s a negative that they haven’t been seen yet.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Strange approach from the stable - Merigo wont be getting into the race off a mark of 137 :unsure ----------------------- Merigo’s fall in the Becher Chase at Aintree has not caused Andrew Parker to have a rethink about aiming for the John Smith’s Grand National. “He’ll be entered for the Grand National and for the Scottish National again”. “If he runs again before the weights come out for the National it will probably be over hurdles, which won’t move his chasing mark up or down. But if he gets 137, it would make it difficult to get in”.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Any Currency will miss the rest of the season through injury. Only £1.50 lost here, but one to bare in mind next season.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Looks like Becausicouldnt see is a definite Grand National runner now (barring injury of course.) Happy with the 88.0 :) ------------------------------------------------------ The Irish challenge for Saturday's Coral Welsh National has been severely depleted with Becauseicouldntsee being ruled out and compatriot Lochan Lacha a "doubtful" runner. Becauseicouldntsee was an excellent second in last month's Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown and was as short as 14-1 for this weekend's Chepstow marathon. But his trainer Noel Glynn is keen to save his charge for a tilt at the Grand National at Aintree in April. "We've pulled the plug on Chepstow and we're going to run him in a few hurdle races before going to Aintree," said Glynn. "I was tempted to have a go as he came out of his last race like he hadn't had a run, but if he had a hard race at Chepstow that might finish him for the year. "We want to have a go at Aintree. He jumps, stays and has a bit of toe, so why not have a go? "I own the horse as well, so it would be fantastic. "He'll run in a hurdle race at the end of the month, another at the end of February and then head to Aintree."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Becauseicouldntsee has been well backed so I have layed off my stake at 36.0. Someone wanted to back Mumbles Head at 200.0 so I have obliged. Gets me out completely of a horse that hasnt been seen yet and has no entries. Lay: Becauseicouldntsee £5 @ 36.0 Lay: Mumbles Head £5 @ 200.0 Arbor Supreme runs in the Welsh GN in a bit and Ballabriggs runs in a hurdle at Wincanton later. I fancy Ballyfitz for the Welsh GN if anyones interested and may have my finger hovering over the banck button for Aintree if he looks like running a big race.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Lots to update on following the weekend. I have got myself in a bit of a mess with Synchronised but i'll explain when i'm not at work. In the meantime i'll try and dig myself out of the hole i'm in!!

[Bri1980]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Just seen this thread, unfortunately too late to get in on action so will follow with view to get on next year. Good luck

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Will update this over the next few days. Quite a lot to update....

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Back - Synchronised £50 @ 39.69

Lay – Synchronised £50 @ 39.63

I got myself in a right mess with this but have thankfully dug myself out of a hole. I had my finger hovering over the back button on a couple of horses during the Welsh National, of which Synchronised was one of them. He was obviously running a big race, so I went to dive in at 50.0 for however much was remaining. I’m still not sure what happened but I’ve got a feeling I put 50.0 in the “stake” box rather than the odds box. Anyway, I ended up with £50 on at 39.69 – oops!! after much panicking I layed it off after a couple of days. I don’t think I’ll be doing that again in a hurry. Too dangerous!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Lay £5 Mobaasher @ 220.0

Won a good hurdles race at the weekend which is all good, but wont help his chase rating of 137, which is highly likely to be too low to get in to the race. He’s running out of time now and safe to take my stake out at a lower price than I backed at, whilst I still can.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Back Chief Dan George £10 @ 76.9

I’m in big danger if anything goes wrong with this one as I am getting very overexposed to him. However, he still provides big value in my opinion. He is a spring horse so we wont see the best of him until then, connections are almost certain to give him an entry having missed their chance last year, yet he keeps drifting in price. He got a steep rise after winning the William Hill Hcap at Cheltenham in March but is still rated below his hurdles rating. He has entries so you’d assume he is well.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Lay Ballabriggs £30.26 @ 17.0

Made his seasonal debut over hurdles last weekend and won well. The shortening in price was an overreaction and I was able to lay off most of my stake at 16/1 which was great, having backed him at an average of 35/1. Still over £600 in the green with this one and there will be opportunities to extract more from him soon enough as he is sure to be one of the more fancied contenders with McCain prepping him.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Back - Imoncloudnine £5 @ 64.0

Lay - Imoncloudnine £5 @ 60.0

This one was unlucky in the Becher Chase, coming down when running well and looking dangerous. The stable are keen to get this one into the Grand National and were hopeful of a big run in the Welsh version in order to increase his rating from 133, which will be too low. Well they got a big run to finish 3^rd which was enough for me to back him on the assumption his rating would go up 5 or 6lbs, which together with a likely uplift for supporting the Becher Chase, would have been enough to get him in. However, curiously, his rating stayed the same at 133.

That doesn’t mean he wont get into the race as Royal Rosa who was rated in the 120’s got a significant uplift for supporting the Becher Chase and was able to race off 139 in the GN last year but it does put a slight spanner in the works.

I’ll be interested if he runs another big race in the Skybet Chase in a couple of weeks but for now, I’ll get myself out of trouble.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Lay Arbor Supreme £3 @ 70

Back - The Midnight Club £9 @ 51.67

Lay – The Midnight Club £9 @ 40.0

These bets revolve around the Mullins horses. Arbor Supreme was nominated as his main Aintree hope but looks overrated to me. He ran another stinker in the Welsh Grand National and has something to prove now.

Mullins main alternative is The Midnight Club who I fancy to run a big race in the Thystes Chase on Thursday. It’s a race that has been a good Grand National trial in the past with winners including Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde and a good performance there will put him right in the picture. He may go for the Irish version instead so I took advantage of a shortening in price to lay off my stake.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Lay Killyglen £2@ 100.0

Will be given entries to “all the Nationals” according to connections but which one he actually races in is open to question. Have extracted another £2 whilst the doubts remain.

Lay Whinstone Boy £11@ 90.0

Having backed at 100.0, ive taken a small profit here. In hindsight, I’ve layed off a bit early as I notice he’s been matched at 65.0 recently in anticipation of a big run in the Thyestes Chase on Thursday. He is borderline to get into the GN and is ground dependent (needs it soft) so is a risky antepost proposition.

Lay One Cool Cookie £10 @ 55.0

Having backed him at odds in excess of 200.0 im laying off at a much smaller price again. I’m just conscious that he has been withdrawn the last couple of years because Charlie Swan has been unhappy with the weight he has been allocated. I am still leaving myself with a profit if he lines up.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! A good word for Oscar Time in the Sporting Life today :) ----------------------------------------- NOW FOR THE NATIONAL Grand National: Oscar Time 33/1 Click here to follow us on Twitter! Click here for more racing news Waley Cohens hope to realise National dream If ever proof were needed that amateurs can still mix it with the best, Sam Waley-Cohen gave Long Run a textbook ride to record a famous victory in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Saturday. Owned by his father, Robert, the pressure was on but he presented the horse on a perfect stride at every fence and kept a cool head against professionals - with those sat in the weighing room sure to have cast an envious glance at the TV screens. The victors gave no indication of feeling vindicated post race in the paddock alongside winning trainer Nicky Henderson and have been rewarded with the tantalising prospect of lifting the Gold Cup at the Festival in March. However, with the cat well and truly out of the bag on the new Gold Cup 6/1 second favourite with Sky Bet, a darker horse to follow from the wealthy Waley-Cohen's empire is Oscar Time. Last season's Irish Grand National runner-up has been bought privately by the family to stay in the yard with Martin Lynch, who purchased the horse unraced as a three-year-old for 37,000 Euros. Oscar Time gave the former jump jockey his most high profile success to date in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown last December and could yet prove a shrewd purchase for new connections with Aintree in mind. The Irish Grand National roll of honour includes subsequent Aintree heroes Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde, while Papillon finished a second in the Irish equivalent 12 months before going one better at Aintree. Given a hurdles campaign to preserve his mark until the National weights are unveiled next month, the ten-year-old has run twice this season under his new big race pilot at Thurles and Leopardstown. Although a proven mudlark, he acts on good ground and this assured jumper and strong traveller shapes like just the type for Aintree and he will lack for nothing in the saddle over the big fences. It is 21-years since Marcus Armytage became the last amateur to win the Grand National on Mr Frisk for Kim Bailey, but Waley Cohen arguably boasts a better strike rate over the National fences. Waley-Cohen finished fifth on Liberthine in the Grand National four years ago, having won the Topham aboard the Nicky Henderson-trained mare in 2006. In the same year, he also completed back-to-back victories in the Fox Hunters' Chase (amateurs' Grand National) on Katarino, who was trained by his father.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!! Noel Glynn is confident his Grand National hope Becauseicouldntsee can make his presence felt in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock. The eight-year-old finished an excellent second in the four-mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last year and looked better than ever when filling the same spot in a fiercely-competitive Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last time out. His connections are now dreaming of Aintree glory in the spring and Glynn hopes he can show he is up to that task with a bold show this weekend, if the meeting survives a morning inspection. "He's in good form. We were thinking of waiting for a race in Ffos Las in a fortnight's time, but we thought we'd go to Haydock as the fences are bigger there and we want to get his eye in for Aintree," said Glynn. "After Leopardstown we thought about maybe just staying over hurdles until the National, but he might not just have enough experience over fences to be doing that. "We'll give him this run this weekend and that might be his last over fences, but we'll see how we get on. "I think he'll run well. I've been talking to the BHA handicapper Phil Smith and he thought he'd want to be on his current rating (144) to get into the National. "He thinks he'd get in the race with about 10st 10lb with that, which would be grand. "I don't think weight would stop him. He's a tank of a horse and although they say weight stops trains, he can carry it better than the smaller horses. "Nina (Carberry) rides him on Saturday. I was thinking of putting a professional on him but Nina wanted to ride and she knows him better than anyone. "I don't think ground makes a huge difference to him."