The "All Green" Grand National 2010 - NOW INCLUDING 2011!!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 The news about State of Play makes his price pretty difficult to trade between now and the race. I have laid off £5.69 @ 36.0, which is a shame as he looks well handicapped. If connections can get him to the race fully fit, he still has a chance in my opinion although the interrupted preparation is less than helpful. He may have missed his chance now. I think if I’m going to be able to make this thread work, I’m going to need one of the big priced 3 figure “backs” to shorten in price for me. The trades on Niche Market and Hello Bud are very nice in isolation but they’re not going to be enough to compensate for the inevitable “dead” bets that will come between now and the race. I’ve spotted a new entrant to the betfair market that I think has the potential to shorten.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Mr Pointment £7.50 @ 277.32 Previous experience over the Aintree fences is a bonus for the Grand National and Mr Pointment has that, having won the Becher Chase in 2007 and finishing 2nd to Black Apalachi in 2008. Following his win in 2007, he had a crack at the Grand National in the following April, and pulled up at the last fence when beaten, having raced up with the pace. The consensus from that is that he didn’t stay the trip, but I think that is debateable. He has enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest the trip is doable. His sire is Old Vic, who is also responsible for the likes of Black Apalachi, GN winner Comply or Die, Southern Vic and Chelsea Harbour. Of more note may be the fact he was hammered by the handicapper for his Becher win, and subsequently lined up for the National with a weight of 11 stone 11 lb’s (OR 155). Considering he was rated only 1 lb lower than the great Hedgehunter, it was a near impossible task for a chaser as inexperienced as he was at the time. By comparison 2 years later, he starts this season off an OR of 141, which would make him attractively weighted in the National, especially with another 2 years under his belt. His form over fences looks of a high enough level to make 141 a fair mark - his only disappointing runs were last time out over a trip too short and in his prep for the 2008 GN when he was found to have broken a blood vessel during the race. Otherwise he has form behind Hennessy 5th Gone to Lunch, and fellow National hopeful Don’t Push It. His 30 length+ 2nd of 3 behind Denman was understandable given he was only getting 3lb’s! So having missed the 2009 renewal, why do I think he will run in 2010? Basically there has been a change of ownership. Previously owned by a syndicate of hairdressers, he has now been bought by Mrs J E Wilson, the owner of the likes of Cerium and Arteea, who were given entries for last years race. Wilson attracted criticism for entering these perceived also-rans, as she was viewed as having runners for the sake of it and for the prestige of having an entry in the Grand National when the horses themselves were deemed to have no hope in the race. However, under the guidance of trainer Paul Murphy, both horses ran well to finish 5th and 10th respectively. Mr Pointment, as a result of the new ownership, has moved stables from Paul Nicholls to the aforementioned Paul Murphy. In my opinion, this bodes well for the prospects of an entry for Mr Pointment, who has better GN credentials than either of those two horses. An ex-Paul Nicholls winner of the Grand National that springs to mind is Silver Birch – can Mr Pointment repeat the feat? :loon At 276/1 he has to be worth a few speculative £’s.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Niche Market ruled out of Welsh National By Tony Elves 5:07PM 14 DEC 2009 NICHE MARKET, who was a fine third in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on November 28, was on Monday scratched from the Coral Welsh National on December 28 by trainer Bob Buckler. RELATED LINKS

• » Welsh National betting

The eight-year-old, who landed this year's Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National, was a 14-1 shot with several bookmakers, including the sponsors. Buckler told racingpost.com onMonday: "The owners don't want to go for the Chepstow race, and he will go for the graduation chase at Newbury the following day."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 I wouldnt really want Niche Market winning at Newbury, he is already rated 148 which is perfect for the GN. any higher would run the risk of him carrying 11 stone +

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 A quick update: I have layed Irish Invader @ 90.0 after backing him at 120.0, as he hasnt run yet this season and has no entries. I dont expect him to have the stamina to challenge in the race itself but as the stable said he is a likely runner, I think a free bet at 29/1 is ok. I backed Eider runner up Morgan Be in anticipation of him winning a 4m chase at Newcastle last week. He came last :puke. so thats probbaly a fiver down the drain. On a brighter note, I was impressed with Trabolgans 4th on Saturday. Stayed on well to record his best performance since coming back from injury. The Grand National has a history of previous RSA Chase runners doing well (Comply or Die, Bindaree) and with Trabolgan on an attractive OR now is definitely one to watch next time.

[jayalexander]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 This is an absolutely mental idea, but I can see the logic! How much do you reckon you'd win on average? I think it's a bit too early in my gambling career to be as crazy as this, but I'll definately give it a go the following year if the results are good!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Yep, it's idiotic to be betting on the race this far in advance really but theres definitely value out there somewhere, I just have to make sure i find it! I'm having fun doing it anyway, its an interesting long term project. How much would you win on average? Potentially you'd make a big loss - i've got a deficit of around £130 at the moment and unless one of the bigger priced "backs" shortens, that isnt going to get any better. :( Still, theres a long long way to go yet...

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 IRIS HAS EYES ON WELSH NATIONAL By Press Association Sport Staff Welsh Grand National: Iris de Balme 33/1 Iris De Balme (FR) Profile S Curran Profile Click here to follow us on Twitter! Click here for more racing news Iris De Balme is set to make his return from a lengthy spell on the sidelines in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow on December 28. The nine-year-old was a shock winner of the Scottish National in 2008 before going on to finish fourth in the Betfred Gold Cup just a week later. However, Iris De Balme has since been sidelined by leg trouble, with Curran plotting a high-profile return. "All systems are pointing towards Chepstow. I shall have to discuss it with the owner, but I'd quite like Anthony Freeman to ride the horse," said Curran. "It's a long time off but, touch-wood, he's showing me all the right signals."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Read on another forum that Church Island, were he to run, meets a lot of the historical trends for past winners of this race. Having backed the irish GN winner Niche Market, I thought i might as well get involved with the runner up, who wasnt beaten too far. I got matched at £3 @ 300.0 and then noticed a few hours later I could lay off at 200.0 for a quickfire trade. In hindsight I was a bit quick to do so as the last price traded was 100.0 :$ Nevertheless its a free bet on a runner that would be fancied if he turns up. Church Island: Back £3 @ 300.0 Church Island: Lay £3 @ 200.0

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Lots of Of interest in the welsh gn today. I have topped up on operation Houdini at about 300.0 and kornati kid £5@ 130.0 in anticipation of good runs . Will update properly when I vet home and have access to a computer- on iPhone at the mo.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Cane Brake, even though he wasnt fancied, ran a poor race in the Lexus today which is concerning as i'm pretty overexposed to him. Tomorrow sees Trabolgan in the 205 Haydock and Morgan Be in the 240 Haydock. I cant really see Morgan Be getting into the race but if Trabolgan wins tomorrow I think his price will shorten considerably :hope

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 One more who ran a good GN trial at Chepstow is Coe. He made a hash of the last fence when looking like he could be placed but stayed on for 6th. Aintree is being considered according to this quote. A lovely staying chaser owned by Trevor Hemmings. He has always looked a proper chaser and last year he started to fulfil that potential with victory in the Tim Moloney Handicap Chase at Haydock. That was over 3 miles 4 furlongs which is ideal for him. He has had a couple of good runs this season at Haydock and Newcastle, finishing second on each occasion, before running in the Welsh National on Monday. He made most of the running until turning for home when he looked like being swamped, but he stayed on really well to finish sixth. I don’t tend to look too far down the road, but he currently has a rating of 139 which would be worth considering for the Grand National in April. If we decide to go down that route I wouldn’t envisage too many other races before Aintree as Chepstow was pretty arduous.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010

Cane Brake, even though he wasnt fancied, ran a poor race in the Lexus today which is concerning as i'm pretty overexposed to him. Tomorrow sees Trabolgan in the 205 Haydock and Morgan Be in the 240 Haydock. I cant really see Morgan Be getting into the race but if Trabolgan wins tomorrow I think his price will shorten considerably :hope

Haydock was abandoned but Trabolgan runs at sandown on 2 January

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Found this quote re: Trabolgan last year, the last paragraph is eyecatching! :lol Trabolgan sidelined again with new problem By Lee Mottershead12.18PM 15 FEB 2009 TROUBLED chaser Trabolgan has suffered the latest setback in a heavily interrupted career after trainer Nicky Henderson revealed that the former starnovice is out for the season due to a breathing problem. The 2005 RSA Chase and Hennessy Gold Cup winner returned this winter after just over three years on the sidelines, but plans to run him in this season's John Smith's Grand National - for which he was as short as 40-1 with Paddy Power - have been abandoned. RELATED LINKS

• » Grand National card
• » Grand National betting

Henderson said: "Trabolgan is going to come out of training for a moment. Unfortunately, his airways aren't working as they should, and I have a nasty feeling that we spent three years mending one thing and with two years of inactivity his larynx has got lazy and it's affecting him. "We've got to do a wind operation, which is very frustrating. However, we wouldn't be mending him if we didn't want to bring him back, so he's out for the season but will come back and win the 2010 Grand National!"

[mr shrewdie]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 AK, good chance to lay off with Cant Buy Time after todays win, available @ 65 for not much money but should get matched. Good luck with this, interesting thread. :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Cheers Mr Shrewdie - i was watching the race round my gf's yesterday with by finger hovered over the "back" button on betfair as I had a feeling he would run well - as a result I managed to get another £2 matched at 220.0 :eek :) He can now be layed at 55.0 which is great but I think im going to let it ride for a bit. There is talk that he could now be McCoys National horse and if so, that 50.0 wont last. I'll have a think about it over the coming days and decide what to do. Trabolgan isnt having much luck with Sandown called off today. There are still 3 figure prices available for him and i'd be tempted to top up if he runs well next time.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 McCOY RIGHT ON TIME AT CHELTENHAM Grand National: Cant Buy Time 25/1 :'>Can't Buy Time (IRE) Profile :'>Jonjo O'Neill Profile :'>A P McCoy Profile Click here for result in full Click here for Cheltenham settlers page Click here for Cheltenham photo gallery Click here for all of Friday's results in full Click here for Cheltenham course news What could prove a significant piece in Tony McCoy's John Smith's Grand National jigsaw emerged at Cheltenham on Friday as the champion jockey piloted Can't Buy Time to success in the victorchandler.com Handicap Chase. The National is one of the few major prizes to have eluded McCoy, but following Cant Buy Time's two-and-a-quarter-length victory over Private Be the eight-year-old emerged as a possible partner for the rider at Aintree in April. The gelding is owned by JP McManus, who retains McCoy and on whose Clan Royal McCoy was carried out at Becher's second time around in 2005 when looking to be travelling supremely well. Trainer Jonjo O'Neill said: "He fell in the National last year after coming here for the four-miler, but I'd hope he could have another crack at it. "I thought he might find the ground a bit sticky but coming back in trip has helped. He's never run over this trip, but AP said he travelled well." O'Neill will most likely give Can't Buy Time his National prep in a race at the Cheltenham Festival, and added: "There are a few races at the Festival which would give us three weeks until Aintree." Sky Bet have Can't Buy Time at 25-1 for the National while Paddy Power introduced him into their Aintree list at 33s.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Important dates: Market suspensions: 12pm, 2nd February - Entry Stage 12pm, 2nd March - Forfeit Stage 12pm, 23rd March - Further Forfeit Stage 12pm, 5th April - Confirmation of Entries This market will close at 10am on the 8th April. A day of the race market will be available shortly after.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 A few interesting runners in the Thyestes Chase today. A win for Ballytrim is needed if he is to get into the National :hope

[dannkez2407]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 hi AK, first of all great little idea this. Just one question, how do the horses get to qualify to be entered in the national? thanks

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Hi mate. You will typically get in excess of 100 entries and the top 40 rated horses get in. Historically a horse needs to be rated about 138ish to sneak in as number 40.

[dannkez2407]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 cheers mate. sorry with the questions but how do the ratings work? ive only been in to horses a few months so pretty new to it all.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 No worries mate, happy to help. Try this link if you want to understand ratings and the handicapping system. :ok http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/HandicappingExplained.asp

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Denman – unlikely to run. Laid off stake.

State of Play – injured, interrupted prep. Ability to trade is therefore questionable so have laid off stake.

Ballytrim – Not progressed as I thought he would and now looks unlikely to run.

Flintoff – Switched stables back to Venetia Williams and National is considered a “possibility” ran poorly last time though so who knows. I have laid off for a free bet.

Mon Mome – likely to run. I got out of it though as I cant really see him winning off top weight and any trading opportunity is minimal.

Niche Market – Season going well, excellent run in the Hennessy, seems to fit most of the historical trends you would like from a National winner. My main hope so far.

Hello Bud – Ran well in the Becher, seemed to take to the fences well. I have laid off for a free bet.

Merigo – Last years Eider winner which is historically a good trial for this race. Needs to improve his rating to get in. Looking unlikely with no immediate entries and ran badly on his only appearance so far.

Arbor Supreme – Laid off for a free bet. Was supposed to be Mullins main hope but looks out of form.

Garde Champetre – Unlikely to run. Have laid off stake.

Irish Invader – Don’t fancy this ones chances, don’t know why I backed it really. Have managed to get out.

Casey Jones – Had a bout of travel sickness and has been off the track. Obviously doesn’t bode well for a trip to Aintree.

Parsons Legacy – See Irish Invader

Iris de Balme – Awaiting seasonal debut. Backed at 102.86, now trading at 130.0. Needs a good reappearance then that price will come in sharply National is the target.

Operation Houdini – Poor jumper, unlikely to get in. a stupid bet in hindsight.

Cant Buy Time – I’ve cocked up here having backed him at triple figure odds he was backed into 55.0 after his win on New Years Day and rumours he could be McCoys National horse. Something seems amiss as he has drifted sharply this week and is now trading at 110.0 again L

One Cool Cookie – I still think this one is a dark horse. I cant find out if the National is the plan though. Potentially a big price.

Hoo La Baloo – Looks like he may go to Aintree fresh.

Chief Dan George – Unlikely to run

Over the Creek – Rating too low, unlikely to run

Cane Brake – Was disappointing in the Lexus, needs a decent run prior to the race. If he can show a return to form he is well treated and can go well. I’m still hopeful. I feel a bit overexposed to him though.

Mr Pointment – Has a Gold Cup entry which is typical of the owners. I’m sure he will get an entry to the National. Have layed off most of my stake so quite relaxed.

Morgan Be – Runs today and needs to win if he is to get into the National. Not hopeful

Trabolgan – Has a real chance if he lines up. OR is currently 137 so would like to see that increase a bit. Tempted to top this one up actually as if he gets his rating up he would fit most of the historical trends.

Church Island – absolutely kicking myself on this one. Backed at 278.8 and laid off quickly at 200.0. Now trading at 44.0. An opportunity missed.

Kornati Kid – Ran poorly in the Welsh National, looks an unlikely runner.

Miko de Beauchene – The change in stables seems to have rekindled his enthusiasm and jumping. Ran a cracker in the Welsh GN and would be a leading player if he goes to Aintree. Cant find out if that is the aim though.

Coe – Connections considering Aintree after good Welsh national run.

Old Benny – Ran poorly last time out. Needs a good run.

Erics Charm – Owners were making noises about running him but drifting badly now so not encouraging.

Abbeybraney – Backed this one earlier in the week. Has some excellent form from last season which leads me to believe he is well treated. Won well, staying on last time and noises were being made about being the stables National horse. Backed at 110.0 and last price matched was 50.0, so the price is going the right way.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2010 Have layed Abbeybraney £3 @ 50.0