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fintron

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About fintron

  • Birthday 11/02/1984

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  1. Re: Horse withdrawn due to gamble? Sounds like just the sort of guy you'd love to bump into at the bar at the racecourse, he'd tell it all like it is! Another gem from his page....
  2. Re: Horse withdrawn due to gamble? Ha' date=' this is my favourite bit of his blog
  3. Re: To specialise or not to specialise? Specialisation is definitely the way forward. The way you have to look at it is that the guys compiling the odds are generalists, not specialists. They roll into an office and 8 am or so and leave at 6 pm or so. In that time they have to price up all sorts of muck, jumps and flat, sprints, mile races and staying races. They simply don't have the time to specialise specifically in a certain area; even if you allocate all the sprints to one guy there will be times when that guy is on holiday. So, as a punter, you have to try find your niche and become more knowledgeable in that area than the odds compilers. You need to find an edge and factors that you can identify that point to winners and value that the odds compilers don't tap into, due to them being rushed for time. It might reach a point where you know the horses so well you can price up races very quickly and get a gut instinct on who to back instantly as soon as you see industry prices............
  4. Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday October 26th 2.30 Ascot - Fruity O'Rooney 3/1 - this one was sent over the wrong trip on his reappearance and should strip fitter for the outing. Now he's returned to a more suitable trip the cheekpieces magically go back on. He's only 1lb higher than his last winning mark and might just handle the ground better than the Irish raiders.
  5. Re: Are some trainers blatantly in the pockets of trainers? The bookies attempt to have their cards marked by buying supposed 'information' from stable insiders. The problem is they sell it to that many people that you get individuals that try and then sell it back on via tipping services. Some of the info is garbled crap, while some of it is okay, the guys within the firms will get to know the guys that pass on reliable info and which don't. I'd be gutted if I was an owner and some stable lad was selling the info on to the bookies on how it was working but c'est la vie it seems.
  6. Re: Horse withdrawn due to gamble? Apparently, the horse had been flapping in Ireland. Someone sent me the link to Frank Sheridan's blog this morning and he states some very valid points, in between the humour. It is actually a very interesting blog, have a look at the 'training fees' page! http://www.franksheridanhorseracing.com/News.html
  7. Re: Each way betting Im an each-way punter too. At various times I have tried to do away with it as every time Ive backtested results, I'd make more profit backing win only. But backing win only can lead to long losing runs, you question your methods and can be prone to backing the 'wrong' types. I suppose backing savers or multiple selections in a race is one way around it but its defo a psychological blanket. I'd go down to 5/2 if they were paying 1/4 odds EW or down to 7/2 if paying 1/5 of the odds. If someone else was picking selections for me or I had a system to take away any emotional involvement, I'd go win only.
  8. Re: British Open~18th-21st July Dunno if it is of interest to anyone but a pal of mine has noticed Bet 365 allow you to multi-up 'to miss the cut' selections. If you have a couple of old boys you are confident will miss the cut then you can bang them in and perm various other players to form the last legs of an acca. Potential big returns from modest outlays. Other firms won't allow multi's in these markets but Bet 365 have done. With regards to tournament outrights, I've backed Branden Grace at 125/1 down to 66/1, currently 66/1 in places, and to be first round leader at 70/1 with Stan James and 6/1 to make the top ten with William Hill. Will admit I know little about golf and am learning, but he performed creditably at the recent Scottish Open, for which he was 45/1, taking Phil Mickelson to a sudden death playoff. 25 years old, he turned pro in 2007. He lacks the major form of the principals, but arrives in decent form. Grace has used the Scottish Open to home his links game, and seems to come on favourably in the putting stats.
  9. Re: william hill 10/1 on long run EW doubles as well :-)
  10. Re: BBOTD Friday 8th February 5.30 Wolverhampton Dorothy's Dancing - profile shows capable of put together back to back wins and only narrowly raised for recent win. gives a good account whenever running in 0-60 company. 11/4 Stan James, 1 pt win
  11. Re: Simonsig suffers set back Overturn 7/2, Long Run 7/1 and Son Of Flicka 33/1, EW trixie........big ask but think all could shorten if they make it to their planned races
  12. Re: Simonsig suffers set back
  13. Re: Simonsig suffers set back I tried to ignore ante post Cheltenham betting this year but have caved into temptation. How on earth is Long Run 7/1? He's a previous winner of the race, still improving at eight, and won the King George last time. I can understand why him and Silviniaco Conti are similarly priced, given the Betfair Chase result, but Silvy came into that race with the benefit of a run (hacked up in the Charlie Hall) and Long Run is notoriously rusty first time out - despite the rubbish peddled to the press saying otherwise. How can a horse like Sir Des Champs, whose bubble has burst in Ireland, be 9/2 when Long Run is 7/1? It doesn't make sense. Bobs Worth looks to have an obvious chance and bids to do a Denman, he's classy, he stays's, but if he's generally 3/1 should Long Run really be 7/1?
  14. Ante-post Arkle favourite suffered a set back ahead of a planned prep run at Newbury this weekend. The results from a trachea wash test came back short of 100 %, which his trainer was looking for to continue running him in the race. The link to the story on the RP is here http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1036448 It just shows how fragile these beasts are. It is only a minor set back, but minor set backs can cause horses to miss races and underperform even if they reluctantly take part. Makes the Arkle somewhat interesting. Although, from a form view, its easy to see why Simonsig is odds on for the Arkle, there is a massive argument for smashing on Overturn now. He's 4/1 with 1/5 odds EW or 7/2 1/4 odds EW. We know he's good enough as he ran a blinder to finish second in the Champion Hurdle last year and this is a race that can cut up badly. Could easily be six runners, and he is one that will relish a small field, where his slick jumping and pace can catapult him away from the closers, like Simonsig up the hill.
  15. Re: Bent AW Racing..... Thanks for posting this. I have heard Archie mentioned before, but never sat down and applied it to data. I have done chi square tests before, back in A level Biology, so understand the principals, so how do you apply that to punting results? Can you compare an overall strike rate vs average odds or do you need to work stuff out for each individual bet?
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