Racing Chat-Thursday 2nd February.

[kensland]

Nigel Twiston-Davis treble.

Patent. 

2.00. Winc. Matata. 7/4       unpl

3.15. Fake. Sergeant Wilson     11/8   unpl

4.25. Uncle Authur                 10/3    unpl

Good luck all. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by kensland

[richard-westwood]

Grandad system changed top 4 for top 3 as both losers were 4th placed lto 

325 South 

Capital theory   9/2 5pt ew 

7.00 chelm 

Harb     4/1  5pt ew 

Edited February 1, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Darran]

After Cranbourne was called off last Friday Beneficio now runs in R4 at Pakenham tomorrow morning which is due off at 8.15am. She's not the only one from that race to run here. Here are my thoughts on the 10 runners.

Grinzinger Prince - Is in drawn in 1, but that isn't ideal for him as he likes to be held up and come with a late run. Was 3 places in front of Beneficio at Geelong back in October, but his jockey said after the race that he would benefit going over a distance further than 1100m which has been backed up by his 3 runs since then. He got no luck when 7^th at Moonee Valley over 1200m and was then 6^th at Geelong over 1100m before finishing 3^rd over 1200m here 2 weeks ago. It seems odd why they have dropped him to 1000m here as I just think he will get going way too late to win and it might even stop him from hitting the frame.

 

Avid General - An in form 7yo who has won both starts this year which continued the good form he was in during December. The wins came at Hanging Rock and Moe and this would be a stronger race than those, but the fact he's running well could see him hit the frame.

 

Prince Of Mercia - Has been off for 20 weeks and hasn't had a trial or a jumpout which is unusual in Australia. He has won twice 1^st up, but both came on the back of a trial or a jumpout so my suspicion is he will strip fitter for the run. Often shows early speed and is drawn in 2 so could be a rival to Beneficio in making the running.

 

La Zucca - Is another who is coming here on the back of no trial or jumpout having been off since November when she was 3^rd at Sandown over 1300m. She has yet to run over this short a trip and given she has won in heavy over 1200m I get the feeling she won't be seen to her best over it.

 

High Risk - She did well to win a BM64 over 1100m at Traralgon in November and has done well enough since with 2 3rds at Cranbourne in December and Moe a couple of weeks ago both over 1000m. She can be slow away as she was at Moe and that didn't help her cause at all. She's drawn in 10 here so I expect she will end up near the back again and it will be a case if she is able to get a run whilst not getting too far back. Place claims for me.

 

Songaa - Hadn't shown a great deal until winning a maiden at Stoney Creek over 1000m over Christmas. Not surprisingly he was a big price as he went to Flemington on his next start in a Class 1, but he put in a really good performance to finish 2^nd especially as he was held up for a run for a bit. I doubt it was the strongest race every run at Flemington as there were some big gaps for a 1000m race, but clearly comes here with a leading chance if repeating that effort.

 

Beneficio - I was a little disappointed with her run at Benalla last time, but looking back she had to work hard to get across from her outside draw and she wasn't able to burn the candle at both ends as the jockey said afterwards. Also for some reason the jockey decided to race wide rather than on the rail which didn't help. She was blowing hard after the race as well so although she has a good 1^st up record, I actually think she will come on for the run. Unlike Cranbourne last week when she had a good draw she has a poor one here in 9. Having said that there doesn't appear too much speed in this race so if she is fast away I think she can lead them. Also Pakenham's 1000m start is in a chute and they only have to take in about half of the final bend so being wide isn't as bad as it could be at some tracks. She has yet to run well over 1000m, but in theory it should suit her well. If she is at her best she should go close. Interestingly she was backed quite heavily in the market when betting first went up.

 

Invincibilus - Won a couple over 1000m last April, but has tended to struggle since then. The fact that her regular jockey has chosen Beneficio also suggests he thinks she has a better chance than this mare.

 

Wango Award - Wasn't a strong race that she won at Yarra Valley although the 2^nd has won since. I'd be a little surprised if she was good enough to win at this level on her first start in a handicap

 

More To See - Looks a total no hoper here.

 

Verdict - Avid General and High Risk both have place claims, but for me the winner will be either Songaa or Beneficio. I'm hopeful my mare can hold them all off, but I do get the feeling that if Songaa can repeat his run at Flemington then he might be the one to beat. I will be spitting my stakes on both. There has been money for the favourite Grinzinger Prince on the morning of the race in Australia, but the trip is a big concern for me.

 

Beneficio @ 7/2 with everyone

Songaa @ 5/1 with everyone

[jonjo]

The 2.00 Wincanton looks a good Novices Hurdle. I like the look of Spartan Army with the 4 year old in receipt of weight from Matata and Celtic Art. After nicely winning a Maiden Hurdle he was thrown into a Grade 2 contest and aquitted himself quite well finishing 5th to Comfort Zone, he was badly hampered by a faller at the last when beaten but a decent effort all the same. If you were to give him a rating for that effort you would put him around the 116 mark, he gets a fair bit of weight from the  two main rivals and looks to have a great shout here. The winner went on to win another Grade 2 (with that days runer up then coming 3rd in the same race) and the third came out and won a Class 2. The form has a solid look to it. Best available is arund the 2.86 mark on the exchanges...........big drift and went off at a Bfsp of 3.77 and hit a low of 1.76 in running (thanks to Matata running out.)

 

As always an in running lay off price will be played.

Good luck whateve you are on tomorrow.

Edited February 2, 2023 by jonjo

[kensland]

Southwell. 

Single. 

3.25. Evania      7/2.      9/2      1st 

Good luck all. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Pakenham.

8.15. Beneficio          7/2.     unpl

Good luck all. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by kensland

[Darran]

The wet track did for both my selections sadly. Jockey has got off Beneficio and said she lost confidence in her footing and her wheels were spinning so she has done well to finish 4th. Songaa clearly didn't handle it at all and the winner had proven wet track form.

[cannotbebeat]

Wincanton

1.30 - Sami Bear - 7/1

Southwell

2.20 - Ben Dikduk - 8/1

4.00 - Piselli Molli - 11/1

4.35 - Alaskan - 7/2

Good luck all CNBB.

[Tedthewolf]

1pt  e/w --3.00 Win-NEARLY PERFECT 33/1 4places bog

[Bang on]

Couple from my tracker today,

3.15 Fake - Pistoletto - 17/2 - A strange one, as I have tracked it on the flat, and this is a Maiden Hurdle (has won 6 on the flat). It has no form to go on, but is decent on the flat, and it has a Grade 1 entry at Cheltenham next month.. so should be thought of as useful enough to win a 'maiden'.

5.30 Chelm - Homer Stokes - 7/2 - Hasn't been given a sporting chance in recent races (deliberate ?), but looks to have a fair chance today. My concern is that Nasim (the favourite) is running from 11lbs below the weight it has won from within the last year so is a definite danger.

[calva decoy]

20 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Couple from my tracker today,

3.15 Fake - Pistoletto - 17/2 - A strange one, as I have tracked it on the flat, and this is a Maiden Hurdle (has won 6 on the flat). It has no form to go on, but is decent on the flat, and it has a Grade 1 entry at Cheltenham next month.. so should be thought of as useful enough to win a 'maiden'.

5.30 Chelm - Homer Stokes - 7/2 - Hasn't been given a sporting chance in recent races (deliberate ?), but looks to have a fair chance today. My concern is that Nasim (the favourite) is running from 11lbs below the weight it has won from within the last year so is a definite danger.

I've backed Pistoletto eway at 9's yesterday .

Was running off 92 last April on the flat & last rating of 80 at Lingfield but those runs over 12 & 10f , add on the +40 flat to hurdle mark & comes in around 120 , could surprise , could flop , if the latter blame the quirky Fakenham course , good luck .

[black rabbit]

Aurigny Mill                   2 00 Win/               { £25 ew  40/1}   1/20th of a pt

[The Equaliser]

Trixie based on @The Brigadier's selections

2.40 Fak Desert Fortune 11/4

3.35 Fin Annie Magic 5/2

4.25 Fak Pachacute 2/1 (1 pt win at 3.25)

1 x 0.50 win trixie = 2 pts poss ret 37.113

Total stakes 3 pts

Back later with poss 2 more Trixies.  One based on horses weighted to win plus improvement on the last run and another based on trainer/jockey placements

3.00 Win Butterwick Brook 0.50 ew at 16/1 4tbp

Edited February 2, 2023 by The Equaliser

[fd1972uk]

Certainly red win 300

Got a win sou 1350 with Em Jay Kay and winnetka ew at 1320 sou (had Coast and Jack Ryan unplaced)

[fd1972uk]

King Charles 505 sou, free hit after certainly red win

 

[Trotter]

Win double on a couple of favourites at Chelm this evening 

6.30 - Mintana 15/8
8.00 - Storm Catcher 5/6 

prices wm hill

Also in the 8.30 Well Prepared, 4/1 bet365 looks to have a good chance. This is a Classified Stakes for horses rated in the 40s so obviously they don't win very often but he won last time out in a similar level race and comes from a yard in top form. He's got a penalty for the win but I reckon at this level current well being and recent form is more important than a few pounds here or there

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Trixie based on @The Brigadier's selections

2.40 Fak Desert Fortune 11/4

3.35 Fin Annie Magic 5/2

4.25 Fak Pachacute 2/1 (1 pt win at 3.25)

1 x 0.50 win trixie = 2 pts poss ret 37.113

Total stakes 3 pts

Back later with poss 2 more Trixies.  One based on horses weighted to win plus improvement on the last run and another based on trainer/jockey placements

3.00 Win Butterwick Brook 0.50 ew at 16/1 4tbp

Trixie based on horses weighted to win who are improving

3.50 Fak Bolsover Bill 7/4

4.35 Sou Sweet Idea 5/1 (1pt win at 7.0)

6.30 Chelt Furnicoe 9/4

1 x 0.50 Trixie = 2 pts poss ret 49.27

Single:

4.45 Win Tique 0.50 ew at 18/1 4tbp

Total stakes today = 8 so far

Not sure if I will make enough time for a trainer/jockey Trixie today.  Getting late

4.10 Win Shantou Flyer 1 pt win at 5.4

Total stakes = 9 pts so far

6.30 Chelm Furnicoe 3 pts win at 3.45

12 pts stakes today in total

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Got carried away withy Mick Appleby's earlier successes and wasted 3 points on Furnico; finished 2nd Again.  Just 1 winner today which luckily was my nap so an 8.80 loss on the day.  MTD = -17.60 & YTD -41.30

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[azzybear]

bond boy 6.00 furnico 6.30 

[azzybear]

shine honey shine 7.30 

[azzybear]

harb 7.00 

[Trotter]

5 hours ago, Trotter said:

Win double on a couple of favourites at Chelm this evening 

6.30 - Mintana 15/8
8.00 - Storm Catcher 5/6 

prices wm hill

Also in the 8.30 Well Prepared, 4/1 bet365 looks to have a good chance. This is a Classified Stakes for horses rated in the 40s so obviously they don't win very often but he won last time out in a similar level race and comes from a yard in top form. He's got a penalty for the win but I reckon at this level current well being and recent form is more important than a few pounds here or there

all 3 won ....... and Mintana drifted out nicely to 11/4 !

[MCLARKE]

11 minutes ago, Trotter said:

all 3 won ....... and Mintana drifted out nicely to 11/4 !

You seem to be in a purple patch at the moment, I won't follow you or your luck will then change !

[Trotter]

Just now, MCLARKE said:

You seem to be in a purple patch at the moment, I won't follow you or your luck will then change !

cheers,

Yeah, I've been spending more time on it since last month ......... I'd been losing interest for a long time but made the decision to either get back into it or pack up !

Started doing AW speed figures again and seems to be working out OK ........

[Zilzalian]

9 hours ago, Trotter said:

cheers,

Yeah, I've been spending more time on it since last month ......... I'd been losing interest for a long time but made the decision to either get back into it or pack up !

Started doing AW speed figures again and seems to be working out OK ........

Are you having problems with your speed figures from Newcastle AW? Race times seem to be very inconsistent. Other tracks are ok according to my figures. 

[Zilzalian]

15 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Trixie based on horses weighted to win who are improving

3.50 Fak Bolsover Bill 7/4

4.35 Sou Sweet Idea 5/1 (1pt win at 7.0)

6.30 Chelt Furnicoe 9/4

1 x 0.50 Trixie = 2 pts poss ret 49.27

Single:

4.45 Win Tique 0.50 ew at 18/1 4tbp

Total stakes today = 8 so far

Not sure if I will make enough time for a trainer/jockey Trixie today.  Getting late

4.10 Win Shantou Flyer 1 pt win at 5.4

Total stakes = 9 pts so far

6.30 Chelm Furnicoe 3 pts win at 3.45

12 pts stakes today in total

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Got carried away withy Mick Appleby's earlier successes and wasted 3 points on Furnico; finished 2nd Again.  Just 1 winner today which luckily was my nap so an 8.80 loss on the day.  MTD = -17.60 & YTD -41.30

 

Looks like your on course for a kicking this year, whats a point to you is it a £1?

[Trotter]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Are you having problems with your speed figures from Newcastle AW? Race times seem to be very inconsistent. Other tracks are ok according to my figures. 

Yes, Newcastle is the outlier  ........ it seems to be running so slow but very inconsistent

I've tried a couple of things to work out going allowances but it varies so much it's not very helpful

The first few meetings in January I've got 'slow' in the 20s on my scale ........ then

22/01 - slow 9
25/01 - slow 52
26/01 - back to the 20s

not sure what to make of it but mostly I'm adding about 20 in my mind to Newcastle figures but treating them with caution

In general for January I've got Southwell riding fast, Newcastle riding slow and the other bunched together

 

 

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Looks like your on course for a kicking this year, whats a point to you is it a £1?

Yes, a point is £1.  If you disapprove of this strat, just wait until you see the one based upon trainer and/or jockey bookings.  As you know I'm a masochist by heart ? 

[The Equaliser]

13 hours ago, Trotter said:

cheers,

Yeah, I've been spending more time on it since last month ......... I'd been losing interest for a long time but made the decision to either get back into it or pack up !

Started doing AW speed figures again and seems to be working out OK ........

Well done.  Just a quick question.  How do you whittle down the qualifiers to a selection(s).  Is it just based upon the top 1/2 out of all the races or is it something else?  For example when you did the RPR/RTF trial you put up selections for all the races for the night and then took stock of an overall profit/loss. Whereas now you seem to have whittled them down.  Just curious that's all

[Trotter]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well done.  Just a quick question.  How do you whittle down the qualifiers to a selection(s).  Is it just based upon the top 1/2 out of all the races or is it something else?  For example when you did the RPR/RTF trial you put up selections for all the races for the night and then took stock of an overall profit/loss. Whereas now you seem to have whittled them down.  Just curious that's all

Well I tend to stick to single figure field handicaps ...... 

single figure fields because I don't want to spend too long on any one race. I'm a big fan of small field races !..... although you're unlikely to find the 33/1 shot you need to win the Naps Comp if you're looking at 5 or 6 runner races. 

handicaps because the AW handicappers tend to run regularly so you get to see a bit of a pattern in the speed figures and the handicapper very kindly arranges them in races where all the runners are roughly the same level of ability ...... you're not going to get a Frankel lurking amongst the future class 6 handicappers like you might get in maiden, novice or conditions races

[Bang on]

21 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Trixie based on @The Brigadier's selections

2.40 Fak Desert Fortune 11/4

3.35 Fin Annie Magic 5/2

4.25 Fak Pachacute 2/1 (1 pt win at 3.25)

1 x 0.50 win trixie = 2 pts poss ret 37.113

Total stakes 3 pts

Back later with poss 2 more Trixies.  One based on horses weighted to win plus improvement on the last run and another based on trainer/jockey placements

3.00 Win Butterwick Brook 0.50 ew at 16/1 4tbp

You keep doing these trixies ... what was it Einstein said about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome ?