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US Open 2022


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What kind of chances are you guys giving Kuzmova vs Shelby Rogers? For me when I saw the line vs Tormo.. My gut instinct was Kuzmova looked like value.. I haven't watched her play much, and never really won anything on her so I didn't really consider it. I know that Tormo is hit and miss, but it was a perfect matchup for Kuzmova. She seems like an aggressive player who could destroy returning second serve. 

Now Rogers to me seems like a player who could potentially be physically worn down.. I've seen her play a little bit recently, and she had a very difficult final in San Jose vs Kasatkina and then some hard matches in Cincinnati.. I think this is a very risky one, and I might be off the mark here. Rogers has a much better serve than Tormo.. This could change the match flow entirely, and put Kuzmova on her back foot? However, the odds seemed far too wide in my opinion. Just asking anyone if i'm crazy here or not? @four-leaf@CzechPunter@Forum. 

 

UPDATE: Well, I seen some highlights of Rogers first round.. She seems to be fit enough.. So that worn down theory could be false. I think it's a close match, but I'll probably be looking for something a bit safer! I'd still say value is on the original instinct side.

Edited by money44
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Well, I can't hit anything at the moment, so take this with a grain of salt, but Rogers is usually resilient on home ground. But almost 5.00 is ridiculous given the first round. You clearly either back Kuzmova there or nobody, she even beat Rogers in 2020 without any worries. One set at 2.38 looks interesting as well.

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17 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, what a day one it was!

Tsitsipas and Fritz must've demolished plenty of those low-priced accas that so many casual bettors love. 

On the women's side, we had Halep falling to Snigur and Trevisan losing against Rodina, who hasn't played for god knows how long.

Gotta be the craziest USO beginning I've ever seen. Taylor Fritz & Tsitsipas were something, like, 1.04 - 1.05 to win?!? Crazy, just crazy.

 

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I'll tell you right now Czech Punter. I think I"m going to sit the Kuzmova bet out, and cheer for Rogers to win.. If this actually happens.. I might jump on Krunic at like 2.5/1.. She's been playing well as far as I can tell, and holds a 2-1 record over Barbora.. If Krunic is meant to win, she'll fight for it, and she'll win, and if not-- on to the next bet... but I seen a few things from her on tape that get me excited. I saw a little bit of Krejcikova first round match, and this doesn't seem impossible.

Also I want to add that I've been a sucker for betting on Krunic in the past, and have mostly avoided backing her. I done well on her this year, and I've noticed that it seems like a mini-ressurgence.. Well, she's made waves here in the past, and maybe her best and breakthrough grandslam of her career.. reaching the third round twice, and also taking Azarenka to a 4-6, 6-4 6-4 defeat in the round of 16 in 2014.. I think the courts do favor her style of play. 

Edited by money44
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Coria was another massive upset, and we nearly had a couple more - Coric, Sinner, Shapo. There was also Rybakina losing against Burel, but I at least get the edge there, since Burel is young and reasonably talented.

I'm looking to back Kwon, in some capacity vs Rublev who was very average against Djere. 

Edit: just checked Kwon's form and noticed he's not been that great, also has a 0-3 record vs Rublev, all from the last year, so maybe I'll hold fire on this one.

Edited by amity
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Coria was another massive upset, and we nearly had a couple more - Coric, Sinner, Shapo. There was also Rybakina losing against Burel, but I at least get the edge there, since Burel is young and reasonably talented.

tbh shapovalov loosing ain t a big upset

Edited by raduvlad1995
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Been working like a dog, so not much time for analysis and tennis betting. Missed some serious upsets in the first two days. Lots of upsets. Not particularly hot in NY today. 27 and 54% humidity is quite reasonable. 

For me I think Tommy Paul may just not have enough in the tank after a 5 setter, to beat Korda.  Probably 1st set here is important, and I'll go with whoever wins it, with an in play bet.

I do like a medium sized bet on  low odds favorites.

Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava

Casper Ruud to beat van Rijthoven

Khachanov  to beat Thiago Monteiro

Jabeur to beat  Mandlik

Sakkari to beat Xiyu Wang

Two in play now, gives odds of 1.17 and I'll take a 4 unit bet there.

Edited by neilovan
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Going to go a big bet on one match that is in play now. Brandon Holt who is already a set up over Pedro Cachin and Caroline Garcia (who has been playing great) to beat Kalinskaya.

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7 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Been working like a dog, so not much time for analysis and tennis betting. Missed some serious upsets in the first two days. Lots of upsets. Not particularly hot in NY today. 27 and 54% humidity is quite reasonable. 

For me I think Tommy Paul may just not have enough in the tank after a 5 setter, to beat Korda.  Probably 1st set here is important, and I'll go with whoever wins it, with an in play bet.

I do like a medium sized bet on  low odds favorites.

Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava

Casper Ruud to beat van Rijthoven

Khachanov  to beat Thiago Monteiro

Jabeur to beat  Mandlik

Sakkari to beat Xiyu Wang

Two in play now, gives odds of 1.17 and I'll take a 4 unit bet there.

As I take the bet, Jabeaur drops her serve (par for the course:). Man, do I hate this sky cam view. It feels like you are watching the match from the 25th row. Just so bad and stupid. Who frames the pic like this, for a worldwide audience. Just rubbish!

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If I had to take two long shots today I have to go with Jack Draper to beat Auger Aliassime. I like Draper, and the left hander should give his opponent problems. For me Flelix has got a lot stronger, but the game (strokes/style/ability to figure out things during match) has not improving much (but he still a great player). I just like the 20 year who has a shot to nothing, and that is where players play their best.

The second one would be Daria Snigur to beat Rebecca Marino. Snigur beat Halep and it was no fluke. 2nd set she got blitzed but came back and won the 3rd after a scare (was 5-1 up, then back to 5-4 and 0-30).  She showed some mental fortitude there, and I think she will only get stronger. For me 2.5 is a solid price.

Will take a small 1 unit bet on the double which comes in around 7.7 to 1 . Draper does start at 2am so impossible to watch, and I will not commit big money to something I will sleep through.

Edited by neilovan
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I like the Draper read. I think it's sharp, and the public will be all over Felix for sure.. I"m thinking it's best to wait on this line because it could inflate to around +250. I'm taking a hard look at the match, and think this might be a better option than what I Originally planned to bet.. Wading in the water for now @neilovan

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Murray looks like he's in trouble. He has to shorten the points to get on top here. He is a little too passive. No way he can outlast him, so it will be interesting to see if he can adjust.

Edited by neilovan
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One thing I will say. Serena played extremely well two nights ago, and especially serving the ball huge. It wasn't a perfect match for her, but she is definitely in some kind of form.. This doesn't seem to be the hampered Williams that can dump a match to any player on tour.. This is massive serving Serena, and timing the ball well from the baseline. I give her a 40% chance and I think that's extremely fair considering how easily she ran through her opening match. I believe she can outserve Kontaveit to win

Serena Williams +200 .5 unit

 

Edited by money44
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I"m racking my brain right now, and I really don't like the card for tomorrow.. Why is SAsnovich 2/1 vs Pegula ? I don't get the odds for this one, and I have Pliskova -115 over Bouzkova.. don't understand why she's a underdog either.

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J. J. Wolf (+2.5 sets) over Nick Kyrgios at 2.09 with Pinnacle

I think Nick might be in for a long evening here, Wolf has already upset Bautista here and he seems to be playing fairly well at the moment, big motivation as well on home ground. Nick dropped his focus against Bonzi for a short while, too, and he might drop it here again. Not sure why this is above 2.00, probably something like 1.83 would look fair to me.

Garbine Muguruza over Linda Fruhvirtova at 1.53 with William Hill

Not sure Fruhvirtova is there yet. Big talent, but still plenty of odd losses this year and her serve is still a liability in this kind of conditions. Expect Muguruza to have a field day with her second serves.

Clara Burel over Alison Van Uytvanck at 2.20 with Unibet

Burel's Rybakina win wasn't perhaps as shocking, she has gone through the qualifying rounds well, after all. Her form book is better than Alison's, and her mobility could trouble her opponent as well. Different sort of a match-up than Venus Williams, who's a lot like AVu in many regards.

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Guys - I have serious question if someone can help me out please.. Can you give me percentage chance this bet wins. This is my best offer for today. 

Sabalenka/Pliskova  .5 unit @+226 parlay. I just don't have any more dogs I like outright left.. I was gonna take NIemaier with all my heart, but I can honestly say I've seen her hit like 4 balls, and was scared to tape her and lose on some youtube whim. 

I think ARyna has been playing well enough, and if anything Kanepi would be a more winnable match for her being that SAbalenka is closer to the prime of her career I believe even if she is a bit on the young and erratic side. If the courts are slow enough.. Aryna will be able to muscle her way to win on sheer athleticism. 

As for Pliskova.. I just noticed she seems to be comfortable in her baseline rallies, and hitting some impressive winners here and there.. I also have become curious if her serve is improving, and regaining old form.. I imagine her confidence stems with this similar to Serena.. Anyhow.. would love to hear your guys thoughts about the parlay. 

 

Edited by money44
Adding unit size, and confirmed bet
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