US Open 2022

[CzechPunter]

Why back someone you're completely unfamiliar with?

[Grass Cash]

Just now, CzechPunter said:

Why back someone you're completely unfamiliar with?

I'm not gonna do it.. went back, and looked at Pegula.. Pegula seems to be in form.. So I can't pull the trigger on it at all. 

My best look at the comment is Cachin +250, it will probably close as my favorite bet for tomorrow. 

He's been playing good.. I know they have been tough matches, but he seems to have the legs for it, and played conservatively.. tough competitors in my opinion for hard courts at the US open, and have noticed the Moutet has bandage on his knee, and last week tape all over his serving arm. So it's possible Moutet retires, but my book won't pay that.. if he finishes tho.. I am seeing this match as a complete coinflip in my eyes. I've got his chances rated at 50%.  Also Cachin's game seems to translate to hard courters much better than other South Americans.. seems to be more of a control oriented style that can deal with pace, and has a good serve. 

[Grass Cash]

I am not impressed with Van De Zandschulp either or current form.. He got bageled and straight sets by Mannarino recently. I don't think Botic baseline game is good enough to hang with alot of players, and then beating Wawrinka for me doesn't mean all that right now. I have no idea what's going with Stan, but he is not performing well(serving, moving, backhand) confidence level. So, this doesn't mean all much either especially when u consider Moutet could just target his backhand, and Stan clearly was hurt and retired.

[Grass Cash]

CP if you liked my post, I'm assuming that means you think it's a good bet.. Is that a bad assumption because I have not placed it yet?

 

[CzechPunter]

I see it more as an appreciation of the value you're bringing to the discussion. Definitely wouldn't back Moutet at that price, another one of those you either side with the underdog or don't bet cases for me.

[Grass Cash]

Are you guys leaning any specific way on the Ivashka - Musetti match? I did cash a live bet on Ivashka vs Hurkacz yesterday.. Curious what you guys think about this one.. I have an opinion also 

[Grass Cash]

The way I'm seeing it.. Musetti is the more talented player, and I think most would agree on that.. He's getting more support almost certainly. His last match he's moving well and playing confidently but vs lower level competition. He's already beaten Goffin in the first round which i'm not sure how great that is, but I do think Goffin would be favored to win here. I'm a believer that he can win matches on hard court..  so I'd say that I really like the odds where they sit at the moment, but it might be something to try in play as well. I believe he'll fight, and give us a solid chance to cash.. but no bets places on anything yet. 

[CzechPunter]

I'm like the edge of Musetti eventually outplaying Ivashka after perhaps a slow start, so a good candidate for live betting.

[CzechPunter]

Musetti over Ivashka at 2.50 with William Hill

Burel (+1.5 sets) over Sabalenka at 2.45 with Unibet

I like these odds quite a lot. Musetii I fully agree with @money44, and I think he shouldn't be over 2.20 or so. Burel is on a superb run and Sabalenka was shaky against Kanepi and always has those odd sets, so the price looks too high to me. She has also already beaten two players that prefer strength over everything else, so that has been some good preparation surely.

[Grass Cash]

 It's a ghost town in here right now CP. Surprised there's not more involvement.. I think there is a great betting card ahead today, and I have a hot take.. Wanted to get your opinion real quick. I personally think Niemeier is gonna destroy Zheng tomorrow.. I do believe Zheng is a massive talent for China, but this Niemeier girl is no pushover.. I don't think Zheng's return of serve is good enough, and her movement looks a little shaky to me as well.. I picked and bet both of these girls and won on them in their last match. I didnt' watch the matches because they were some parlay bets that I had, but i watching the replays now, and it didn't take me long to figure out which side I was on.. I don't understand why the public is so heavily on Qinwen. You will probably say this an underdog or pass situation again, but if you can give any additional insight into the match.. would be greatly appreciated. 

[CzechPunter]

I was against Niemeier, and she was coming into the event with some bad form book, but she's proven me wrong by getting two nice wins. That said, I think Zheng is more talented and she was good in the lead-up events as well, now beating Ostapenko and Potapova back to back, who are both better than Niemeier on paper one has to say. There will be some serious ball hitting here, but worth a note that Zheng destroyed her 6-4 6-0 in Melbourne at the start of the season as part of her good start to the year. I would actually play Zheng here rather than back Niemeier, don't think she'll live with the firepower well.

[Grass Cash]

Yeah .. I just talked myself out of betting heavy on that.. Here will be my card for tomorrow. I am seeing a good potential amount of dogs winning tomorrow.. I already mentioned the German as an option which I still like alot at the current price. and then players like Brandon Nakashima, Burel would not suprise me either.. It's just not something I feel very comfortable with. Martic in some fine form winning in Switzerland.. she's found a comfort in her game at the net. Continue to roll with Pliskova, and I think Bencic is not 100% motivated with injury problems. Musetti we discussed already, and Garbine Muguruza is playing good tennis finally.. Her footwork is fantastic, and she's fighting.. I like this one alot, and it's really more of a gift because of how many times Kvitova has dissapointed as a favorite. Right along side Garbine, but for this match.. You'll want to be on Muguruza side because I have this match lined as a pk em odds for both players.

William Hill

Muguruza +160 .25 unit 

Musetti +170 .25 unit

Karolina Pliskova +100 .25 unit

Martic +170 .25 unit 

[raduvlad1995]

if rublev wouldn t have been so inconsistent this year, I d take him over shapovalov anyday , but with their levels now, I think shapo wins atleast a set.  I'd also take evans to win a set against cilic, he has that style that can frustrate marin with its consistency. Normaly I'd say nadal will humiliate gasquet but with how shakey he's been against fognini, I realy can t say how many sets he'll need to put gasquet down.

[MinellaWorksop]

Great writeups @money44 and @CzechPunter and I am following your excellent advice and tips all the way.

The only concern I have with the Murguruza vs Kvitova match is that Kvitova has beaten Murguruza the last 5 times they have played each other. Admittedly the last occasion was in 2021 and we are getting the outsider odds on Murguruza after all. I just can't help feel that is quite a dominant head to head record against a player. So fingers crossed Garbine can seize the day and banish that Kvitova dominance.

[neilovan]

Looking at the days matches, I do find the Rune v Norrie match interesting. The just played recently at the Cincinnati masters. Norrie won in 3 but the handicap gams difference was only one game, They actually have a similar game style. Nobody going to get blow off the court or overpowered. So my feeling is this one is going to be close. Can Rune win? I don't think so. Can he take a set? Definitely. Thus I like him to cover the +5.5 game handicap at about 1.85

Not crazy about the other men's matches. I do think Cilic beats Dan Evans. Cilic is deceptive, and behind that serve is a really tough customer. I feel that he wins a reasonably close match, and am happy to go straight Cilic win here.

I was watching Kvitova playing in one of the warmup tournaments, and she was playing great. A tiny bit inconsistent, but she is a terrific ball striker, and was definitely going for her shots. When that stuff works in the woman's  game, people get over-powered. The patterns of play look like men's 1st strike tennis, and opponents can't handle it. I think Kvitova wins quite easily here. Definitely saw the right signs; Aggression behind good serving, 1st strike tennis, and hitting the ball hard. It's so proactive and atypical of the woman's game. It's essentially what Radacanu did last year in winning the US open and not losing a set.

One person who is just so underrated is Petra Martic. I was very impressed with Martic, as she just demolished Badosa in their 3rd set. She is a very astute, thinking player. Deceptive power, but the ability to adjust, figure things out, and apply the findings. A crafty player, and my feeling is that she beats Azarenka.  Both have not played that much, I think Azarenka pulled out of the Canadian open. Too much money thrown away to do similar at the US... so she may not be 100% here.

 

I will probably go 2 doubles. Grouping the men and the woman together in two separate bets.

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by neilovan

[Grass Cash]

3 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Great writeups @money44 and @CzechPunter and I am following your excellent advice and tips all the way.

The only concern I have with the Murguruza vs Kvitova match is that Kvitova has beaten Murguruza the last 5 times they have played each other. Admittedly the last occasion was in 2021 and we are getting the outsider odds on Murguruza after all. I just can't help feel that is quite a dominant head to head record against a player. So fingers crossed Garbine can seize the day and banish that Kvitova dominance.

I agree with what you said about Muguruza.. this is why I only put a .25 unit on that.. I am still considering Niemaier because I think I have found something in that match.. It's just hard to go against Czech Punter advice, and also as for betting.. I'd say Musetti is a safer bet than Muguruza.. I was just diversifying my bets. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by money44

[CzechPunter]

Awful night there for both of us @money44 and the only bet I like today is Samsonova over Tomljanovic at 1.50 with William Hill. Samsonova is playing the best tennis of her life, and I think that Tomljanovic might find it hard to cope emotionally after eliminating Serena in a difficult match.

[neilovan]

Really battling this US Open. Just can't seem to get a solid run of winners going.

Carreno-Busta really has to be considered a solid favorite against Khachanov. He had an amazing run in the Canadian Open beating Hurkacz, Evans, Sinner, Draper, Rune, Berrettini, dropping just 2 sets out of 14 played. 3 pretty solid wins in the US open against Thiem, Bublik and de Minaur (who I thought would give him real problems.)

For me he has too much game and good form here, and should beat Khachanov.

I think Caroline Garcia is just playing so well, and has too much game for Riske. 

For me Gauff has to be considered one of the favorites for the title. I really like her. She has a great attitude, excellent temperament and is a real fighter. Such maturity for such a young person. Her main issue was a somewhat unreliable forehand, but she seems to be working through that. The backhand is dynamite!

Just going for a 3 unit treble on Carreno, Garcia and Gauff all to win, which works out  around 14 to 10.

My one upset for the day is Tomljanovic over Samsonova. Tomljanovic playing really well. odds of 2  to 1 on 1 small 1 unit bet for me here. For me this ia a far easier match than that against Williams.

Edited September 4, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

That makes two of us @neilovan, at least someone had a good win yesterday though! Garcia's story really is sort of incredible. It's not that long ago that you'd think she's closer to retiring than to winning a GS title, but here she is with a good chance. Certainly some bigger favorites due to experience still in the first half, but they have to fight it out against each other first and Caroline only has to beat one of them at the end.

[raduvlad1995]

had an over on games on berretini and davidovich yesterday( like over 32,5 or smth like that) and left for today i took both alcaraz and sinner to win. I have full confidence that carlito will find a way, he has the defence to deal with cilic and the offence to destabilise him...jannick will probably be harder , but him and ivashka kind of play the same , with jannick hitting cleaner though and simply having a bit more variety to his game.

[delfino]

For Me Collins to beat Sabalenka @2.12 meridianbet looks decent bet.

I predict that the Bellarussian Sabalenka will suffer heavy from the crowd behavior. Please all look what happened yesterday in the match Kyrgios/Medvedev. The crowed was awfully supporting...Kyrgios because the other guy is Russian...

Kyrgios would beat Medvedev by his game without the behavior of the crowd. BUT Sabalenka is not Kyrgios. She survived in match against Kanepi in a way happens once in a decade probably. I only remember one match like this. A player down 1-0 in sets and down 5-1 in second set and finally returned and won the match! And Sabalenka was down 5-2 and 6-3 in the second set tiebreak! hahaha! 

Collins is the female Kyrgios, in her game style. Of course WTA is by no means predictable like the ATP , but here i see Collins to have the advantage not only because of the mad crowd, but in addition she has the game to beat Sabalenka tonight. 

Good luck! 

[four-leaf]

Just watched a simulated match between André Agassi and Carsten Ball. These two played at the same time for a short period but never met in reality. Ball was cruising in first set serving for the set at 5-2.

However off to something real now...

Have seen Carlitos play this USO and he's explosive like no other player this USO and it's gonna take a lot to convince me that he wont reach the final beating Nadal in the semi.

Edited September 5, 2022 by four-leaf

[matrixman]

Well nick has the golden road now.Only thing that can stop him is himself.I do worry that his antics in the next 3 matches may be his undoing as he was 2-3 feet from hitting a fan last night and being defaulted.A final vs Nadal might be one for the ages..Skill Wise and just for pure morbid curiosity..

[matrixman]

Also dont count out the Wiley croat Cilic today.Gonna need to serve like a demon to pull it off but he def has the skill and guile to do it.Punchers chance..

[raduvlad1995]

5 minutes ago, matrixman said:

Also dont count out the Wiley croat Cilic today.Gonna need to serve like a demon to pull it off but he def has the skill and guile to do it.Punchers chance..

he realy doesn t have the skill to do it, alcaraz needs to play in full ue mode to get beaten by cilic at this point.

[neilovan]

I really think Francis Tiafoe has a very good chance to beat Nadal. The man is ridiculously strong, and I think working with Wayne Ferreria has helped him a lot. Now it is just a question of belief. I think he may fall just short, but should take a set, which probably wins you the +6.5 handciap bet.

For the rest, I think the card is brutal today. Just one to watch and maybe take an in play bet.

I think Karolina Pliskova is going to beat Azarenka. My big indicator is just how well she did in the Canadian open, beating Kejcikova, Anismova, Sakkari. I think the 1st strike, power tennis, is not an opponent style that suites Azarenka. She may get blown off the court in a stop-start no rhythm type match. Azarenka also has not played that much, cancelled in Canada, Lost 2nd match in Cinicinnati and then against 3 weak opponents that really suited her style in US open.

[raduvlad1995]

man alacaraz and sinner realy played with my heart and kept me up all night...they could have won so much easier. Glad they pulled through though and I didn t cash out

[Grass Cash]

Rublev vs Tiafoe: This is a match i'm looking to target. Does anyone have thoughts about this one?

[888888]

i'll be taking Gauff to beat Garcia.

Gauff the young American talent should get tons of support from the public, Garcia is on a 12w streak which has to end some time or an other and i feel Gauff is the one to do it.

[raduvlad1995]

46 minutes ago, money44 said:

Rublev vs Tiafoe: This is a match i'm looking to target. Does anyone have thoughts about this one?

If the tiafoe from the nadal match shows up, he wins it. But I ve seen enough times that after a big win comes a big fall for many players, and this is like tiafoe's only true big win