Racing Chat - July 31st

[Villa Chris]

3.05 Galway 

Ratings 

1 Battleoverdoyen 5/2

2 Peregrine Run 20/1 non runner 

3 Politesse 9/4

At the weights Battleoverdoyen should be taking this for the second year running. Not only is he 7Ibs lower this time round, he’s also ran to a much higher level a couple of days back compared to last years festival. His run a couple of days ago was a step in the right direction. 
 

5 points win on Battleoverdoyen 

Edited July 31, 2022 by Villa Chris

[kensland]

Market Rasen. 

Double. 

3.20. Landing Calling        2/1...... 11/4.  1st 

3.50. Ince.                      2/1..... unpl 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 31, 2022 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

Galway 3.40 

Ratings predictor 

1 Benefit Run 8/1

2 Sil Ver Klass 8/1

3 Powersbomb 

Top two 5 points on each 

[kensland]

Ralph Beckett runners. 

Chester. 

3.30. Biggles.        17/2..... Nr 

5.00. Tiempo Star.          12/1.... unpl 

singles & double   ew 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 31, 2022 by kensland

[Trotter]

Knowing how we love to come up with ratings systems I've thought of a new one using the Racing Post

It's very simple ...... you add together 2 figures from the race card ....... the RPR and the Trainers RTF

RPR is the Post's form figure for the horse ...... RTF is the trainer form figure, ie to what extent are his horses currently running up to their form

So the rating is trying to answer the question ...... how good is the horse and how likely is it that he'll run up to his level

Of course it takes no account of trip, going, track suitability but if you're concerned about all that you might as well just do your hours of form study ...... the idea here is that it's quick and simple, based on horses class and trainer form and introduces an element of randomness and whatever the opposite of subjectivity is. So hopefully it'll throw up some of  those random looking winners that you probably wouldn't pick if you were studying form

Trial Run at Chester ..... number of selections based on field size and EW places

1.50 - Pink Stripes 177, Kiss N Cuddle 142
2.20 - Endeared 158, Utilis 157, Zephina 147
2.55 - Princess Shabnam 192, Ventura Diamond166
3.30 - Yanifer 199, Paws for Thought 156, Sweeping 155
4.00 - Rogue Spirit 177, Rock of England 172
4.30 - Mythical 166, Midraar 157, Wynter Wildes 142
5.00 - Cormier 153, Wots The Wifi Code 135, Golden Melody 133

I'll update results later

 

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2022 by Trotter

[black rabbit]

Saltonstall       4 10  GWY   1/5 pt win    11/1

Nathaniles dream   2 30  GWY   1/5 pt win    25/1

Gabrial The Wire    3 30 Chs      1/5 pt   25/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  141.5   pts

 

     

Edited July 31, 2022 by black rabbit
selections

[black rabbit]

44 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Knowing how we love to come up with ratings systems I've thought of a new one using the Racing Post

It's very simple ...... you add together 2 figures from the race card ....... the RPR and the Trainers RTF

RPR is the Post's form figure for the horse ...... RTF is the trainer form figure, ie to what extent are his horses currently running up to their form

So the rating is trying to answer the question ...... how good is the horse and how likely is it that he'll run up to his level

Of course it takes no account of trip, going, track suitability but if you're concerned about all that you might as well just do your hours of form study ...... the idea here is that it's quick and simple, based on horses class and trainer form and introduces an element of randomness and whatever the opposite of subjectivity is. So hopefully it'll throw up some of  those random looking winners that you probably wouldn't pick if you were studying form

Trial Run at Chester ..... number of selections based on field size and EW places

1.50 - Pink Stripes 177, Kiss N Cuddle 142
2.20 - Endeared 158, Utilis 157, Zephina 147
2.55 - Princess Shabnam 192, Ventura Diamond166
3.30 - Yanifer 199, Paws for Thought 156, Sweeping 155
4.00 - Rogue Spirit 177, Rock of England 172
4.30 - Mythical 166, Midraar 157, Wynter Wildes 142
5.00 - Cormier 153, Wots The Wifi Code 135, Golden Melody 133

I'll update results later

 

 

 

 

good luck with this trotter/  somewhere in my archives is a  "speed figures based system" given to me by "dapper character"

called "MILO"  i recall him telling me { after far to many beers } that it was given to him by Phil Bull  { possibly bullshit }

that was back in the 80's   but he did seem to do quite well from his punting /  perhaps i"ll try dig it out /  

ive always found it difficult to bet to a system /   hope yours goes well   be lucky 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

Knowing how we love to come up with ratings systems I've thought of a new one using the Racing Post

It's very simple ...... you add together 2 figures from the race card ....... the RPR and the Trainers RTF

RPR is the Post's form figure for the horse ...... RTF is the trainer form figure, ie to what extent are his horses currently running up to their form

So the rating is trying to answer the question ...... how good is the horse and how likely is it that he'll run up to his level

Of course it takes no account of trip, going, track suitability but if you're concerned about all that you might as well just do your hours of form study ...... the idea here is that it's quick and simple, based on horses class and trainer form and introduces an element of randomness and whatever the opposite of subjectivity is. So hopefully it'll throw up some of  those random looking winners that you probably wouldn't pick if you were studying form

Trial Run at Chester ..... number of selections based on field size and EW places

1.50 - Pink Stripes 177, Kiss N Cuddle 142
2.20 - Endeared 158, Utilis 157, Zephina 147
2.55 - Princess Shabnam 192, Ventura Diamond166
3.30 - Yanifer 199, Paws for Thought 156, Sweeping 155
4.00 - Rogue Spirit 177, Rock of England 172
4.30 - Mythical 166, Midraar 157, Wynter Wildes 142
5.00 - Cormier 153, Wots The Wifi Code 135, Golden Melody 133

I'll update results later

 

 

 

 

Yes, good luck with this.  I have often seen on here that the RTF is often criticised as being badly wrong.  I wonder if the trainer's best current winning record may be best to use instead?

[Villa Chris]

Good luck Trotter , it’s fun trying new systems out. I suppose there’s flaws in most systems and even In really good one will see bad runs . I do incorporate RPRS in mine if need be, although I don’t take into account trainer form. I do look at it, but I don’t effect much selections. I suppose if we are after the perfect system then trainer form should go into that . In ways a horse is only as good as its trainer, standards no matter how good the horse need to be kept high .

Edited July 31, 2022 by Villa Chris

[alexcaruso808]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

It's very simple ...... you add together 2 figures from the race card ....... the RPR and the Trainers RTF

 

any reason you are using the RTF and not the stats below the racecard?  Just curious!  Of course, it's your system and I'm trying to get a better understand of where you're coming from.

 

[Villa Chris]

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Galway 3.40 

Ratings predictor 

1 Benefit Run 8/1

2 Sil Ver Klass 8/1

3 Powersbomb 

Top two 5 points on each 

Sil Ver Klass a non runner among some others. If Benefit wins I’ve got a 40p reduction on the pound. I’ll elevate Powerbomb up as a selection as it’s still an 11 horse race and he’s 12/1. 

[azzybear]

midnight flame 1.50 darkened 2.00

[The Scientist]

Hi all. I am embarrased at my poor runs from my two best ideas...so I thought.

We know that the handicapper applies PLUMPTY handicapping to 2yo for their first mark. Position ---lengths and hope I am not a Numpty. Nobody can do any better. Ok my best bet of the week GALLIC was stone last. (He should have been withdrawn he was in such a state. Did I overate him off a mark of 84? Probably? maybe not.?The intial handicap mark is pure PLUMPTY

2 % 20 lengths too low: 9% 10 too low: 16% 5 too low:, 46% spot on:16% 5 too high: 9% 10 too high: 2% 20 too high.

the handicapper scours for futher evidence to quickly get the 2yo 'in rsnge"

On Gallic's Goodwood run he could not be rated higher than 50 which puts CHUCK TAYLOR at 38. Well the Johnston horse races off 71 in the Chester 1.50. He's either thrown in or a no hoper depending on how you rate Gallics last two runs? The smooth Nottingham win or the distressed 16/16 at Goodwood.We will see but out of fallen pride I am betting CHUCK TAYLOR e/w

 

 

[Tedthewolf]

Have had a decent week at Goodwood will finish the week off with a  small e/w  singles & double at Chester

3.30 ONEFORTHEGUTTER 7/1  & 4.30  LUNAR JET 12/1

Edited July 31, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[Trotter]

1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:

any reason you are using the RTF and not the stats below the racecard?  Just curious!  Of course, it's your system and I'm trying to get a better understand of where you're coming from.

 

No particular reason ...... to be honest I never thought of it and the figure I use is on the race card so a bit quicker to go through the field without keep scrolling down

I suppose they are two different things ...... winners to runners as a % is not quite the same as runners running to form ...... and as I'm using the RPR for form it makes sense to use the latter. It could be the case that a trainers winners win but all his other horses run massively below form, And of course a horse might win but still run below it's form rating, ie if it's in an easy race that doesn't take much winning

 

[alexcaruso808]

6 minutes ago, Trotter said:

No particular reason ...... to be honest I never thought of it and the figure I use is on the race card so a bit quicker to go through the field without keep scrolling down

I suppose they are two different things ...... winners to runners as a % is not quite the same as runners running to form ...... and as I'm using the RPR for form it makes sense to use the latter. It could be the case that a trainers winners win but all his other horses run massively below form, And of course a horse might win but still run below it's form rating, ie if it's in an easy race that doesn't take much winning

 

You've started off well so far. ?

[The Equaliser]

3.30 Ches Red Mirage 4/1

3.50 M/R Good Bye 3/1

4.30 Chest Emiyn 9/2

5.00 Ches Golden Melody 11/2

6 x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x 0.5 win trebles and 1 a 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.50 stakes with poss return of 720.24

Singles bets

3.30 Chs 1 pt win Red Mirage, 0.6 at 5.7; 00.6 win on Yanifer 9/1, 0.30 win on Tollard Royal at 16/1 and 0.15 win on Paws For thought at 25/1

3.50 M/R Good Bye 1 pt win at 4.7; My Poem 0.6 pt win at 11/2 and Ruckwa 0.4 win at 8/1

4.30 Ches Emiyn 1 pt win at 6.2, Enthused 0.6 win at 8/1, Lunar Jet 0.3 win at 12/1 and 0.15 win at 25/1

5.00 Ches Golden Melody 1 pt win at 7.8, Typical Woman 0.6 win at 8/1 and precision storm 0.30 win at 12/1

Difficult to nap one today Red Mirage faces Master Zoffany and Good Bye faces Ince

Total stakes 13.45 today

RESULTS UPDATE

Just one winner today so this created a loss of 8.87 points.  This made my MTD - 59.16 and YTD -202.18.  Let's hope that August will be better

Edited July 31, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[black rabbit]

4 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Saltonstall       4 10  GWY   1/5 pt win    11/1

Nathaniles dream   2 30  GWY   1/5 pt win    25/1

Gabrial The Wire    3 30 Chs      1/5 pt   25/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  141.5   pts

 

     

great ride  by  o"keeffe  on  martin"s  nathaniel"s dream  //

[Tedthewolf]

4 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Saltonstall       4 10  GWY   1/5 pt win    11/1

Nathaniles dream   2 30  GWY   1/5 pt win    25/1

Gabrial The Wire    3 30 Chs      1/5 pt   25/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  141.5   pts

 

     

Cracking start ?

[black rabbit]

1 minute ago, Tedthewolf said:

Cracking start ?

start ted ? thats me done and on way to an old shebang to get legless 

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.05 Galway 

Ratings 

1 Battleoverdoyen 5/2

2 Peregrine Run 20/1 non runner 

3 Politesse 9/4

At the weights Battleoverdoyen should be taking this for the second year running. Not only is he 7Ibs lower this time round, he’s also ran to a much higher level a couple of days back compared to last years festival. His run a couple of days ago was a step in the right direction. 
 

5 points win on Battleoverdoyen 

Politesse wins over a very disappointing Battleoverdoyen who seemed to be in command but found absolutely zero when challenged and finished second . So much promise a few years back. 
 

Benefit  run second also 

 

to keep on the prostitute theme , I couldn’t score in a brothel this week 

-55

Edited July 31, 2022 by Villa Chris

[harry_rag]

24 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

thats me done and on way to an old shebang to get legless 

Give her my regards! 

[black rabbit]

well if i"m  still in  the game after my "boiled bacon + cabbage" and few pints guinness/

i may phone a prostitute when i get home 

[Trotter]

Results update on RPR/RTF system above ....

Chester

1.50 - Pink Stripes 177, Kiss N Cuddle 142  (WON 5/4)
2.20 - Endeared 158 (2nd Evens) Utilis 157, Zephina 147
2.55 - Princess Shabnam 192 (2nd 7/2), Ventura Diamond166 
3.30 - Yanifer 199, Paws for Thought 156 (3rd 20/1), Sweeping 155
4.00 - Rogue Spirit 177, Rock of England 172
4.30 - Mythical 166, Midraar 157, Wynter Wildes 142 (3rd 16/5)
5.00 - Cormier 153 (WON 15/2), Wots The Wifi Code 135, Golden Melody 133 (3rd 6/1)

not bad I suppose ...... thanks to the last race winner just backing the top rated would have made a profit

Won or placed in every race bar one

might give it another go ! ...... maybe at a less idiosyncratic track than Chester where my system took no account of the draw which looms large around the Roodeye

 

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, black rabbit said:

good luck with this trotter/  somewhere in my archives is a  "speed figures based system" given to me by "dapper character"

called "MILO"  i recall him telling me { after far to many beers } that it was given to him by Phil Bull  { possibly bullshit }

that was back in the 80's   but he did seem to do quite well from his punting /  perhaps i"ll try dig it out /  

ive always found it difficult to bet to a system /   hope yours goes well   be lucky 

I would like to read Milo's speed figures-based system if you are able to find a copy of it, please.

[Zilzalian]

13 hours ago, Trotter said:

Knowing how we love to come up with ratings systems I've thought of a new one using the Racing Post

It's very simple ...... you add together 2 figures from the race card ....... the RPR and the Trainers RTF

RPR is the Post's form figure for the horse ...... RTF is the trainer form figure, ie to what extent are his horses currently running up to their form

So the rating is trying to answer the question ...... how good is the horse and how likely is it that he'll run up to his level

Of course it takes no account of trip, going, track suitability but if you're concerned about all that you might as well just do your hours of form study ...... the idea here is that it's quick and simple, based on horses class and trainer form and introduces an element of randomness and whatever the opposite of subjectivity is. So hopefully it'll throw up some of  those random looking winners that you probably wouldn't pick if you were studying form

Trial Run at Chester ..... number of selections based on field size and EW places

1.50 - Pink Stripes 177, Kiss N Cuddle 142
2.20 - Endeared 158, Utilis 157, Zephina 147
2.55 - Princess Shabnam 192, Ventura Diamond166
3.30 - Yanifer 199, Paws for Thought 156, Sweeping 155
4.00 - Rogue Spirit 177, Rock of England 172
4.30 - Mythical 166, Midraar 157, Wynter Wildes 142
5.00 - Cormier 153, Wots The Wifi Code 135, Golden Melody 133

I'll update results later

 

 

 

 

I get what you are saying and its a sound idea on the surface of it but i looked at that RTF earlier this year and it is as much use as a one legged man in an arse kicking contest in my opinion. Just a couple of examples i looked at Alan kings RTF earlier in the year it was 68% but he hadnt had a winner in 19 days, same with Fabre RTF at 72% he hadnt had a winner in 21 runners but he did have 10 2nds which to me skews the numbers somewhat. Add to that if a trainer has had say 2 winners from 2 runners its 100% RTF as is 1 winner from 1 runner. Might i suggest you run a parallel to what ur doing with regard trainers winners, or even something like 3 pts winners, 2 points 2nds, and 1 point 3rds (last 14 days) just to see if there is a difference or to see which angle comes out better? or even RPR RTF? and Stopwatch.

[Trotter]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I get what you are saying and its a sound idea on the surface of it but i looked at that RTF earlier this year and it is as much use as a one legged man in an arse kicking contest in my opinion. Just a couple of examples i looked at Alan kings RTF earlier in the year it was 68% but he hadnt had a winner in 19 days, same with Fabre RTF at 72% he hadnt had a winner in 21 runners but he did have 10 2nds which to me skews the numbers somewhat. Add to that if a trainer has had say 2 winners from 2 runners its 100% RTF as is 1 winner from 1 runner. Might i suggest you run a parallel to what ur doing with regard trainers winners, or even something like 3 pts winners, 2 points 2nds, and 1 point 3rds (last 14 days) just to see if there is a difference or to see which angle comes out better? or even RPR RTF? and Stopwatch.

I see what you're saying but I don't think of RTF as being about winners ....... a trainer could have his last 6 runners all finish 8th but they might all have run 100% to form if that's where they should have finished according to how good they are. 

As I see it the RPR is a measure of how good they are and the RTF is a measure of how likely they are to run to that level based on trainerform

So a horse with a RPR of 100 might be better than a horse with a RPR of 90 but if the former RTF is 10% and the latter is 100% then there's only a one in ten chance that the higher rated one will run to a 100 but a 100% chance than the lower rated one will run to 90

that's the theory !

 

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, Trotter said:

I see what you're saying but I don't think of RTF as being about winners ....... a trainer could have his last 6 runners all finish 8th but they might all have run 100% to form if that's where they should have finished according to how good they are. 

As I see it the RPR is a measure of how good they are and the RTF is a measure of how likely they are to run to that level based on trainerform

So a horse with a RPR of 100 might be better than a horse with a RPR of 90 but if the former RTF is 10% and the latter is 100% then there's only a one in ten chance that the higher rated one will run to a 100 but a 100% chance than the lower rated one will run to 90

that's the theory !

 

fair enough, i will see how you get on, i think yesterday you was about even at chester yes?

[Trotter]

31 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

fair enough, i will see how you get on, i think yesterday you was about even at chester yes?

Just finished ahead on top rated thanks to a 15/2 winner in the last race....... but I would have lost backing all the selections as I was posting the top 2 or 3 in each race depending on EW field sizes. Obviously you'd never back all top 3 rated in every race ...... that would be a short cut to the poor house !

I'll post today's selections on todays thread later but limit to the top two

 

[black rabbit]

"MILO" not sure it can be implemented any longer as the racing jurnel he refers to is/was  "the raceform handicap weekend issue"

it involved scaning the previous weeks results and identifying the winner of all/any races that were run in "above average times"

the resulting horse would have to have won by a 3 length margin or more and attracted one the following caveat's =  ran on well/ quickened clear/comfortabley/

by the raceform race reader/  the assertion been that a horse capeable of quickening up at the business end of fast run race is a serious player in the future/

he kept a hot list of these and punted them accordingly/   { that seems to be it from the scrap of paper he wrote it down on]   now dont shoot the messanger

i have never ran it as to my mind it will trow up very few selections and they would probaly be short priced { given the above impressive performance ]  and

i would rather shit on my hands and clap than bet short prices/