Tennis Tips - March 14 - March 20

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Veronika Kudermetova to beat Marie Bouzkova at 1.80 with BetVictor

There were plenty of scenes in the Osaka Kudermetova match, Osaka making a drama out of nothing again, but Kudermetova played well and let's not underestimate that. I think that her power will be too much for Bouzkova to cope here, she's struggled with that before and she might struggle with that easily again. She's also played a lot of tennis recently, so that's hardly a plus. I was expecting 1.66 for Kudermetova here, so I'll take everything above.

[neilovan]

Watched some of the Radacanu match against Petra Martic. After the first set had had enough. NO bet, but I really expected Radacanu to power through and win. Folds up like a deck chair, against an opponent she should beat. Zverev drops the ball (again), but that temper will stop him from reaching his full potential. Osaka, Muguruza, Sabalenka, Zverev, Carreno-Busta, Bencic all ejected, switched off, knocked out, KO'ed, sent to bed with no dinner!

Human nature is to dwell on the negative. So if you have 4 experiences, of equal size (2 positive and 2 negative), for most people the negatives outweigh the positives (even though they are equal). The positives are dismissed quickly, the negatives linger. So when you start losing, early rounds, the negative experience lingers, and festers. DO it for a few weeks in a row and it grows, subconsciously, and you land up carrying negative residual energy around with you.

This stuff applies very much to tennis and Poker. Indian Wells this week , Miami next week. But for a guy like Zverev, with a racquet smashing tantrum one week, and an early defeat here. it's a body blow. Damn, lost 1st or 2nd round, now I gotta sit around and wait 10 days. Hotels, taxi's , flights, check-in, security, being away from home is a pain in the backside after a while. It gets magnified when you are losing. In a 128 draw 75% of the contestants have lost by the end of round 2. SO most people have to find a way to handle the losing, while the winning is done by a disproportionally smaller group.  Some people have a huge disadvantage mentally here.

Anyway, enough of the psychology.

Three upsets in the mens. I like Opelka to beat Shapavalov and Broosky to beat Tsitsipas. In both matches absolutely nothing between them. Opelka coming off a (6-1 6-4) demolition  of Musetti, is playing well. If he was not returning well, you would expect a breaker or maybe two, but he broke serve at least 3 times. Strong indicator that the ground game is working.

Brooksby blew Khachanov away (6-0 6-3), and I think he will win against Tsitsipas. I don't know how much the Ukraine war is affecting Russian players, but it must have some effect. But Brooksby played very well. He is ultra aggressive on the return of serve (did this against Tsitsipas last time), and I think it will pay dividends. He ran him very close in Acapulco and I think he does the job here.

Kyrigos to beat Ruud. Kyrigos may be an atypical tennis player, but he is very talented. Great serve, and a very deceptive game. The serve is such a quick strike, on a rising ball toss, and it makes it very difficult to figure out where he's hitting it. Probably a breaker or two in this (close) match, with Kyrigos to prevail behind his rocket serve.

 

Really not sure why Azarenka is such a huge favorite over Rybakina. For me a very close game and a possible upset. I also think Petra Kvitova is finding her game and could get past Sakkari. 

Edited March 14, 2022 by neilovan

[888888]

Nadal in his last match was losing 2 breaks down 2-5 in the 3rd set and came back to win 7-6 which is really impressive but might also show that he is not as sharp as before?

Tonight he is playing Daniel Evans which has a good serve, i am thinking to take Evans over 7,5 or 8,5 games, any opinion on that pick?

[raduvlad1995]

18 minutes ago, 888888 said:

Nadal in his last match was losing 2 breaks down 2-5 in the 3rd set and came back to win 7-6 which is impressive but might show that he is not as sharp as before?

Tonight he is playing Daniel Evans which has a good serve, i am thinking to take Evans over 7,5 or 8,5 games, any opinion on that pick?

I don't know what to say about that, korda is a totaly diferent player compared to evans. Korda has FAR more power, a great backhand , he just chocked hard cause this seems to be the common issue with the young players of nowdays. Evans slices his bh prety much everytime, and rafa just destroys slices plus nadal usualy grows in level with every match. Your bet might come out as winning but IMO I think evans's game is tailormade for nadal to beat.

Edited March 14, 2022 by raduvlad1995

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Watched some of the Radacanu match against Petra Martic. After set had had enough. NO bet, but I expected Radacanu to power through and win. Folds up like a deck chair, against an opponent she should beat. Zverev drops (again), but that temper will stop from reaching his . Osaka, Muguruza, Sabalenka, Zverev, Carreno-Busta, Bencic all ejected, switched off, knocked out, KO'ed, sent to bed with no !

Human is to dwell on the negative. So if you have 4 experiences, of equal size (2 positive and 2 negative), for most people the negatives outweigh the positives (even though they are equal). The positives are dismissed , the negatives linger. So when you start losing, early rounds, the negative experience lingers, and festers. DO it for a few weeks in a row and it grows, subconsciously, and you land up carrying negative residual around with you.

This stuff applies very much to and Poker. Indian Wells this , Miami next . But for a guy like Zverev, with a racquet smashing tantrum one week, and an early defeat here. it's blow. Damn, lost 1st or 2nd round, now I gotta sit around and wait 10 . Hotels, taxi's , flights, check-in, , being away from home is a pain in the backside after a while. It gets magnified when you are losing. In a 128 draw 75% of the contestants have lost by the end of round 2. SO most people have to find a way to handle the losing, while the winning is done by a disproportionally smaller group.  Some people have a disadvantage here.

Anyway, enough of .

Three upsets in the mens. I like Opelka to beat Shapavalov and Broosky to beat Tsitsipas. In both matches absolutely nothing between them. Opelka coming off a (6-1 6-4) demolition  of Musetti, is playing well. If he was not returning well, you would expect or maybe two, but he broke serve at least 3 times. that the ground game is working.

Brooksby blew Khachanov away (6-0 6-3), and I think he will win against Tsitsipas. I don't know how much the Ukraine war is affecting Russian players, but it must have some effect. But Brooksby played very well. He is ultra aggressive on the return of serve (did this against Tsitsipas last time), and I think it will pay dividends. He ran him very close in Acapulco and I think he does the job here.

Kyrigos to beat Ruud. Kyrigos may be an atypical tennis player, but he is very talented. Great serve, and a very deceptive game. The serve is such a quick strike, on a rising ball toss, and it makes it very difficult to figure out where he's hitting it. Probably a breaker or two in this (close) match, with Kyrigos to prevail behind his rocket serve.

 

Really not sure why Azarenka is such a huge favorite over Rybakina. For me a very close game and a possible upset. I also think Petra Kvitova is finding her game and could get past Sakkari. 

I went with brooksby to take a set myself, but I think he played zverev in acapulco not tsitsipas

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, raduvlad1995 said:

I went with brooksby to take a set myself, but I think he played zverev in acapulco not tsitsipas

LOL, Tsitsipas and Zverev, all the same. 

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

LOL, Tsitsipas and Zverev, all the same. 

with their tennis levels nowdays , yep they're prety much the same but atleast tsitsipas is enjoyable to watch unlike zverev

[CzechPunter]

Just to add, yeah, Evans is a completely different match-up. Likes to come in after a slice, great against many players, but not Nadal, who knows how to work these tricky balls. It might well work against the more bashing players who have pace but not much finesse, but Nadal has as much finesse as you can get. The conditions can also hardly help Evans I feel.

[888888]

thanks to both for the feedback on Nadal / Evans.

[DrO]

Van de Zandschulp B. to beat Kecmanovic M. @1.75 (local bookie Soccerbet)

Close match is expected,but i feel that Dutchman will have a upper hand here. His game is more solid in this moment..Kecmanovic has too many ups and downs in his tennis..they both won tough matches in last round,but i value Botic's victory ( vs FAA) more..

[Foo_Fighter]

Is Brenda Fruhvirtova a wonderkid? I've read comments praising this girl over here. Do you guys think she'll get the win tomorrow in Turkey?

[CzechPunter]

She's definitely a wonderkid. But expect her results to be volatile in the short term, even though her potential is far beyond Ignatik's.

[Foo_Fighter]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

She's definitely a wonderkid. But expect her results to be volatile in the short term, even though her potential is far beyond Ignatik's.

So you think she's gonna beat Ignatik?

[CzechPunter]

If I had to bet at the current odds, I'd bet on her, definitely.

Daria Saville (+5.5) to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.86 with Pinnacle

Going for this early line, I think +5 is fair. Saville is on a great comeback trail at the moment, she's already beaten Jabeur and Mertens here, no reason why she should be afraid of Sakkari. Obviously this is not the world's no. 6 against the world's no. 409, Saville is around top 30 quality wise.

[neilovan]

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches today at Indian wells.

4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American also plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe always underrated, and the slow court will not suite Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.

 

For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral balls, hit down the middle, straight to the opponent. It is such passive tennis. Cirstea probably one of the most in form players at the moment has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout year for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.

At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.

Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.

 

1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.

2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.

3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)

Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches at Indian wells.

4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe underrated, and the slow court will not Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.

 

For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral , hit down the , straight to the opponent. It is such passive . Cirstea one of the most in form players at has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.

At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.

Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.

 

1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.

2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.

3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)

Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 

 

 

 

 

 

A bit painfull for me to read this since I'm romanian and love halep lol . But I do understand why you'd view her game like that. When simona plays her best tennis , she changes directions way more often and doesn t just go down the middle, the down the middle and counter is her game when she's not in top form .

[raduvlad1995]

Any opinions on bublik-dimitrov and foe-rublev ? I think tiafoe is very underrated especialy on home soil, he beat rublev before in USO , him taking a set would be a prety solid bet maybe ? Same goes for bublik, who if he's actualy focused has more power a far better serve compared to grigor and also has craft(not as much as grigor but still prety soft hands), I think he's got a good shot to beat dimitrov here.

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

A bit painfull for me to read this since I'm romanian and love halep lol . But I do understand why you'd view her game like that. When simona plays her best tennis , she changes directions way more often and doesn t just go down the middle, the down the middle and counter is her game when she's not in top form .

If I was Darren Cahill I would be ashamed of myself. Given a Rolls Royce and drove it like a VW beetle. Halep has always had unbelievable athletic ability, but has been scared to play 1 strike tennis.  For years she has played with the wrong tactics, and could have achieved so much more. To really be able to win big, you have to not be scared to lose, and Halep has been way to conservative. Too late to change now,

This game will be decided by how well CIrstea returns. Halep could be under tremendous serve pressure.

[Torque]

4 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

Any opinions on bublik-dimitrov and foe-rublev ? I think tiafoe is very underrated especialy on home soil, he beat rublev before in USO , him taking a set would be a prety solid bet maybe ? Same goes for bublik, who if he's actualy focused has more power a far better serve compared to grigor and also has craft(not as much as grigor but still prety soft hands), I think he's got a good shot to beat dimitrov here.

I can remember the US Open match. Tiafoe ate Rublev's second serve for breakfast, lunch and dinner. It got to the stage where he was standing almost on the service box line - a bit like Paul against Sascha the other day. A repeat of that and Rublev is in big trouble because unless his first serve went in, he wasn't winning the point the last time they met.

[raduvlad1995]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

I can remember the US Open match. Tiafoe ate Rublev's second serve for breakfast, and . It got to the stage where he was standing on the service line - a bit like Paul against Sascha the . A repeat of that and Rublev is in big trouble because unless his serve went in, he wasn't winning the point the last time they met.

yeah it's more about how sharp tiafoe will be after injury, but he did look good to go against nakashima

[DrO]

Terrible performance from Botic so far..

[DrO]

And now MTO for Botic..he has some injury issues..that explains a lot.

[CzechPunter]

I will be interested in Halep Martic, certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the Romanian run into some trouble. The early odds look promising, but no hcap lines yet.

[raduvlad1995]

I think de minaur has a good shot at taking atleast a set against fritz or maybe even win that match. De minaur seems back at his optimal level while fritz seems to be a bit under his optimal level(especially on serve). Brooksby also IMO has a good shot against norrie, he has the game to win and he also seems very composed mentaly plus factor in the public's suport. 

[neilovan]

LOL, again Sakkari winning and the opponent quits. 

Very hard to make a case against any of the favorites on the woman's side. Swiatek, 4 matches all won after losing the 1st set. I thought Halep played very well yesterday. Definitely more proactive and aggressive. Hit the ball well. If I had to go for 1 upset it would be Rybakina over Sakkari. Rybakina serving very very well, and when she plays like this, her whole game gets a huge boost and lift. Would be going over 21.5 games here.

In the men's there are lots of close matches.  I think Brooksby beats Norrie. Just playing great tennis, with lots of confidence, but Norrie is a tricky customer.  The problem for Norrie is that Brooksby is returning the ball particularly well. 6-3 6-2 over Tsitsipas, 6-0 6-3 Khachanov, 6-1  6-4 Carballes Baena suggest a guy that is breaking serve and dominating. I don't think the Norrie serve can survive the onslaught.

For me, ALcaraz v Monfils, with a price of 3.3 to 10 on Alcaraz is ridiculous. Monfils handled Medvedev very well, and Medvedev is a far tougher customer than Alcaraz. I would be going Monfils here, or the over 21.5 games. This will be a close, hard fought match.

I do like Fritz over de Minaur. For me de Minaur is like a super lightweight fighting a heavyweight. He can land blows, but they are more annoying than hurtful. He just doesn't have the weapons to get enough free points, to win this type of match up. Perfect for Fritz here, who should win behind his dominating, repetitive serve.

For me most of the other games are just a lottery.  Again, picking 1 upset, I would probably go for Hurkacz over Rublev, simply because he has beaten him the last 2 times they have played.

 

 

[raduvlad1995]

30 minutes ago, neilovan said:

LOL, Sakkari winning and the opponent quits. 

Very hard to make a case against any of the favorites on the woman's side. Swiatek, 4 matches all won after losing the 1st set. I thought Halep played very well yesterday. Definitely more proactive and aggressive. Hit well. If I had to go for 1 upset it would be Rybakina over Sakkari. Rybakina serving very very well, and when she plays like this, her whole game gets a boost and lift. Would be going over 21.5 games here.

In the men's there are lots of close matches.  I think Brooksby beats Norrie. Just playing great tennis, with lots of , but Norrie is a tricky customer.  for Norrie is that Brooksby is returning particularly well. 6-3 6-2 over Tsitsipas, 6-0 6-3 Khachanov, 6-1  6-4 Carballes Baena suggest a guy that is breaking serve and dominating. I don't think the Norrie serve can survive the onslaught.

For me, ALcaraz v Monfils, with of 3.3 to 10 on Alcaraz is ridiculous. Monfils handled Medvedev very well, and Medvedev is a far tougher customer than Alcaraz. I would be going Monfils here, or the over 21.5 games. This will be a close, hard fought match.

I do like Fritz over de Minaur. For me de Minaur is like a super lightweight fighting a heavyweight. He can land blows, but they are more annoying than hurtful. He just doesn't have to get enough free points, to win this type of match up. Perfect for Fritz here, who should win behind his dominating, repetitive serve.

For me most of the other games are just a lottery.  Again, picking 1 upset, I would probably go for Hurkacz over Rublev, simply because he has beaten him the last 2 times they have played.

 

 

rublev beat hurkacz in dubai like a couple of weeks ago when he was more tired than he is now, I d go with an over on games there. Alcaraz is diferent to medvedev in that he actualy has the weapons to get past monfils's defence, and is in better form than medvedev who's definetly not at his best now. De minaur has a positive h2h agaisnt fritz so he can definetly take fritz on and the problem is that it's exactly fritz's serve that hasn t worked well here.

[neilovan]

15 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

rublev beat hurkacz in dubai like a couple of weeks ago when he was more tired than he is now, I d go with an over on games there. Alcaraz is diferent to medvedev in that he actualy has the weapons to get past monfils's defence, and is in better form than medvedev who's definetly not at his best now. De minaur has a positive h2h agaisnt fritz so he can definetly take fritz on and the problem is that it's exactly fritz's serve that hasn t worked well here.

Thanks for that, I had not updated my database so didn't get that result in yet.

[CzechPunter]

Petra Martic (+5.5) to beat Simona Halep at 1.98 with Unibet

This handicap line certainly appeals, Martic has impressed me in the couple of matches I've seen and should make this closer than the odds suggest, hopefully at least. @neilovan Saville was clearly struggling  

 

[Torque]

3 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

De minaur has a positive h2h agaisnt fritz so he can definetly take fritz on and the problem is that it's exactly fritz's serve that hasn t worked well here.

Agree with this. Fritz didn't serve well against Munar and was fortunate not to lose the match. Whatever you think of De Minaur, he's certainly a step up from a clay grinder like Munar.