Tennis Tips - March 14 - March 20

[Foo_Fighter]

22 minutes ago, Torque said:

I can see what you're saying, but I lost faith in Dimitrov a long time ago. I'm no big fan of Rublev either, but out of the two he's the one I want to side with.

Also, Rublev's double handed backhand might cause serious trouble to Dimitrov's one handed bh. He can target and damage his opponent's weak backhand relentlessly throughout the whole match if he wants. I expect him to do so.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[Torque]

15 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Dimitrov is a massive enigma honestly. He's turned into a player that can lose against anyone, but still worth backing at big odds here and there I feel. Very streaky, not sure if that has something to do with long COVID or something else, impossible to tell. I've been focusing a lot on the WTA lately, hopefully I can figure out some nice underdogs like some years ago. Obviously a huge fan of Osaka's antics, that's just incredible.

I'm not sure Covid explains it tbh. He's been flaky as anything for years and years now.

[Tobulas]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

I'm not sure Covid explains it tbh. He's been flaky as anything for years and years now.

His last final was  5 years ago since 2017 hes been joke almost every tournament.

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

I'm not sure Covid explains it tbh. He's been flaky as anything for years and years now.

Dimitrov is simply awful. How he beat anyone is beyond me. Glad it was a v small bet !

[Torque]

I think there are matches where he just gives up. That and matches where he can't be bothered in the first place and it's not hard to imagine why I'm really not a fan.

[Simeon Borisof]

He is a spineless tard. Will always remember that freakshow against Kozlov. Still think it was fixed though

[neilovan]

13 hours ago, neilovan said:

Woke up early and caught some of the Alcaraz v Norrie match. Norrie really didn't play badly. Seemed to suffer a slight hip-flexor/ groin strain but Alcaraz was just dynamic. His movement was insane, and he hit Norrie off the court constantly. I cannot see Nadal beating him. The improvements in his game are unbelievable, and the hype is for real. His game is phenomenal!  If he stays healthy, Alcaraz  will be the new king of tennis.

I still am not convinced regarding Swiatek. I think Halep runs her very close, probably winning. For me a small bet double on Halep and Alcaraz to win tournament/s. 

Quite strange with Halep. 5-4 1st set serving and 30-15 up. Loses the game. 2 set points in the breaker, loses it.  4-2 up 2nd set, loses 4 games in a row. Strange, inconsistent performance, with few winners and lots of errors.

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @Vitalyy!

[raduvlad1995]

reached 4k with my bets last night(had kecmanovic to take a set, same for swiatek , and had alcaraz beating norrie also). I think I'll call it a day on indian wells and be thankfull for another great tourney, still thinking about puting some money on rublev beating fritz, just not sure yet if I'm willing to take the risk.

[Torque]

15 hours ago, Vitalyy said:

I disagree. Nadal is the right pick to me. Alcaraz is playing well but his serve is not good. An injured Norrie broke him 4 times. If you want to beat Nadal you need a big serve. The last players Nadal has beat were all great servers (Kyrgios, Opelka, Korda...) and that's why the matches were tight. I don't expect really long rallies cause Alcaraz has not the patience to do that. That's not how he plays. Sooner or later he will try to close the point with a winner (as he always does) and Nadal really knows how to deal with these kind of players. Alcaraz will have much more difficulties to hold his serve than Krygios or Opelka had, so he will have to work really hard for every point. I don't like how Nadal has been playing here but he still has managed to reach this round only with his mental strength. Nadal at 1.65 (Pinnacle) over Alcaraz is a must take bet as I think his experience and mental strength will be the deciding factors. 

All good points @Vitalyy The market is twitchy about something though, else Nadal wouldn't be that big a price. Perhaps it's the unknown factor which is how much his foot might affect the way he plays. Nadal hasn't been in top form as you say and if he had been and if there weren't question marks over his foot then he should be winning this and his price would be a lot shorter. You're right about Nadal's mental strength though - that alone might be enough to get the win. Good luck with your bet.

[Torque]

6 hours ago, neilovan said:

Quite strange with Halep. 5-4 1st set serving and 30-15 up. Loses the game. 2 set points in the breaker, loses it.  4-2 up 2nd set, loses 4 games in a row. Strange, inconsistent performance, with few winners and lots of errors.

That's a carbon copy of the end of the first set of Nadal v Kyrgios when Kyrgios was serving for the set. Like Kyrgios, if Halep wins that first set as she should have done then I think she wins the match. It's so important at the highest level to take your chances when you get them because they're often few and far between and one or two key points can be the difference between winning and losing.

[lelit]

 The fact that Halep did not win the first set can also testify to the mental abilities of Swiatek? Or ?...

[Torque]

16 minutes ago, lelit said:

 The fact that Halep did not win the first set can also testify to the mental abilities of Swiatek? Or ?...

Of course.

[CzechPunter]

Swiatek's mentality is honestly quite impressive. She's already a Grand Slam champion, but she hasn't gone down the route of Stephens, Ostapenko, etc. at all. She's hardly a media star, but she seems much more focused and hard-working. I honestly wouldn't be surprised one bit if she goes well past the likes of Osaka, Muguruza, etc. in a few years. I mean, she's still 20, but nobody seems to be mentioning this!

[CzechPunter]

Sad how Goffin has fallen as well. He went to try and "vulture" a Challenger...3 sets against Kovacevic and Eubanks before losing to Broady.

[raduvlad1995]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Sad how Goffin has fallen as well. He went to try and "vulture" a Challenger...3 sets against Kovacevic and Eubanks before losing to Broady.

lol, it's realy depressing since he actualy was a very very good player

[Foo_Fighter]

Taylor Fritz to win a set at 1.72 with bet365

The h2h stands at 2-2 (all matches played on hard court) so far. Taylor Fritz came out on top on their most recent encounter in Paris (a straight set victory for the American). It is remarkable to say that Rublev has defeated Taylor Fritz in Dubai (straight sets) and in Milan Next Gen ATP Finals (in 5 sets), whereas in two Masters 1000 Event matches played between them, Taylor Fritz has prevailed an equal number of times in straight sets (IW 2018, Paris Masters 2021). I've watched both players in the current IW and I'd say their level of play seems to be quite equal. Perhaps the American's fh can turn the scale in his favor. At least that's how I evaluate the match.

[Torque]

Let's hope for a win for Rublev in three sets @Foo_Fighter then we'll both be happy. I'm adding some more to my position on Rublev as I think he'll beat Fritz. Personally I think Rublev has played the better of the two here and if he makes the final, whether it's Nadal or Alcaraz he'll have a decent chance. He beat Nadal the last time they played and that was on clay and I'm on Alcaraz outright so I won't mind if he loses to him.

10pts Rublev to win ATP Indian Wells @ 4.14

[Foo_Fighter]

It's just that I regard Rublev as a bit of a one-dimensional player. An exceptional one-dimensional player though. Taylor Fritz has evolved immensely throughout the years, he is no longer a raw talent anymore. He's trying to work the angles during the rallies in order to get the edge of winning the point, he's also added significant power to all of his shots without missing the lines... always a trustworthy server as well (as most of the Americans). My point is he's a versatile tennis player. @Torque

Edited March 19, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[Torque]

2 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

It's just that I regard Rublev as a bit of a one-dimensional player. An exceptional one-dimensional player though. Taylor Fritz has evolved immensely throughout the years, he is no longer a raw talent anymore. He's trying to work the angles during the rallies in order to get the edge of winning the point, he's also added significant power to all of his shots without missing the lines... always a trustworthy server as well (as most of the Americans). My point is he's a versatile tennis player. @Torque

I agree with all of that. All I would say though is I haven't been impressed by how Fritz has served this week. He was very close to losing right at the start here against Munar because he wasn't serving well.

[Foo_Fighter]

3 minutes ago, Torque said:

I agree with all of that. All I would say though is I haven't been impressed by how Fritz has served this week. He was very close to losing right at the start here against Munar because he wasn't serving well.

I know right? Crazy how Taylor Fritz and Nadal have managed to survive against certain players in this tournament. Seb Korda was serving at 5-2 in the deciding set lol. Mental midget? Pure greatness by Nadal? A combination of the two?

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

I know right? Crazy how Taylor Fritz and Nadal have managed to survive against certain players in this tournament. Seb Korda was serving at 5-2 in the deciding set lol. Mental midget? Pure greatness by Nadal? A combination of the two?

I think a bit of both. I'm sure Korda has said in the past that Nadal is an idol of his, so when he realised that he had a really good chance to beat him then nerves probably set in, plus Nadal had obviously decided he wasn't giving up and so battened down the hatches and started to play really high percentage shots, probably sensing that Korda was getting nervous and thinking that mistakes would come as a result. Which they did as Korda was trying harder and harder to hit on-the-line winners.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Torque

[Foo_Fighter]

3 minutes ago, Torque said:

I think a bit of both. I'm sure Korda has said in the past that Nadal is an idol of his, so when he realised that he had a really good chance to beat him then nerves probably set in, plus Nadal had obviously decided he wasn't giving up and so battened down the hatches and started to play really high percentage shots, probably sensing that Korda was getting nervous.

Exactly.

[Torque]

What is it this tournament with players serving out sets... lost count of the amount of times there's been a break when a hold would have been the end of the set.

[Torque]

Nice one @Foo_Fighter Rublev can't take any of five points on serve to force a tie-break and Fritz takes the set. I'll be very surprised if Rublev wins now. 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Torque

[Torque]

Especially after Rublev smashed his hand up 

[Foo_Fighter]

41 minutes ago, Torque said:

What is it this tournament with players serving out sets... lost count of the amount of times there's been a break when a hold would have been the end of the set.

Goes to show the lack of mental fortitude in the current generation of male tennis players. We seldom watched Berdych, Wawrinka, Tsonga etc. failing at serving out sets a decade ago. Now it is a common thing to see Zverev, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Taylor Fritz etc choking big time at crucial moments serving for the set or the match lol. I'm really starting to believe that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic might be the three best players of all time, by far.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[Torque]

10 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Goes to show the lack of mental fortitude in the current generation of male tennis players. We seldom watched Berdych, Wawrinka, Tsonga etc. failing at serving out sets a decade ago. Now it is a common thing to see Zverev, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Taylor Fritz etc choking big time at crucial moments serving for the set or the match lol. I'm really starting to believe that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic might be the three best players of all time, by far.

I'm not sure I remember Berdych, Wawrinka or Tsonga as reliable set closers, but certainly Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been and maybe that's a big reason why they've been so dominant over the years - getting into a winning position and being able to cross the finish line without fuss.

[Foo_Fighter]

25 minutes ago, Torque said:

I'm not sure I remember Berdych, Wawrinka or Tsonga as reliable set closers, but certainly Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been and maybe that's a big reason why they've been so dominant over the years - getting into a winning position and being able to cross the finish line without fuss.

I meant they were (along with del Potro) more reliable than the current top players (Zverev, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, FAA, De Minaur, Rublev, Kyrgios, Taylor Fritz etc). Anyway, we have another straight set victory for Taylor Fritz against Rublev. 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[Torque]

Rublev. Talk about self-sabotage. Bad enough to lose the first set the way he did, but taking chunks out of his hand wasn't going to help him to turn the match around was it. Talk about brain dead.