Tennis Tips - March 14 - March 20

[neilovan]

6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Petra Martic (+5.5) to beat Simona Halep at 1.98 with Unibet

This handicap line certainly appeals, Martic has impressed me in the couple of matches I've seen and should make this closer than the odds suggest, hopefully at least. @neilovan Saville was clearly struggling  

 

I think Halep is playing as well as she can. SHe was very good against Cirstea ... best I've seen her play for some time. Hit the ball exceptionally well, and I would hesitate to go against her.

[Torque]

I'm going to take some outright positions in Indian Wells on the exchanges, both on the Men's and Women's sides. For the men, I want to go against Nadal who looks to me as though he might be running out of steam after a good tournament in Mexico and then his exertions so far here. There's no doubt he wants to be here and he'll be doing all he can to win - if that wasn't the case then I think he'd have lost against Korda rather than mounting that extraordinary comeback - but it's possible his body won't allow him to. He's either pulled out of or withdrawn from numerous hard court tournaments in the last few years, and whilst I don't think that will happen this time I do think he could be legitimately beaten due to accumulated fatigue. With that in mind, I'm going to back a few other players who I either like the price of or who I think could go all the way - or both - starting towards the towards the top of the market and then a few speculative ones.

For the Women, I'm going to back Halep and Keys. Halep looked good in her last match and can hopefully carry on that form, but even if she can't she should be beating Martic in her next match and then after that she'll hopefully be up against Keys for a place in the final. For that to possibly happen then Keys needs to win her match against Swiatek and I give her a decent chance of doing so and certainly better than the odds suggest. Keys seems to be a little like Basilashvili in that she either loses almost straight away at a tournament or makes a run towards the latter stages like she did at the AO. She seems to be playing quite well here and if she serves as well as she can do then it almost won't matter what Swiatek does, but by the same token if her serve disappears or she's in unforced error mode then Swiatek could run out an easy winner. As always, at the price I'll take the risk.

 

25pts Rublev to win ATP Indian Wells @ 8.45 

10pts Alcaraz to win ATP Indian Wells @ 8.06

5pts Fritz to win ATP Indian Wells @ 27.46

2pts Dimitrov to win ATP Indian Wells @ 45.10

2pts De Minaur to win ATP Indian Wells @ 53.92

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10pts Halep to win WTA Indian Wells @ 4.53

5pts Keys to win WTA Indian Wells @ 17.66

[Foo_Fighter]

Many Americans still in the tournament (Opelka, Brooksby, Fritz, Isner). My gut tells me that the trophy ? will eventually go to one of those guys. It's time an American did something significant in men's tour

[CzechPunter]

Well, my small run comes to an end, as does Martic's.

Veronika Kudermetova (+3.5) to beat Paula Badosa at 1.95 with Pinnacle

Badosa is still trying to defend her title, but it gets even more serious now, as Kudermetova has been playing well so far. She had a slow start against Bouzkova and then got a bit mixed up by her injury, but she produced a good fight against Vondrousova and I guess I just don't get the +3.5 games line. She's 3-0 against Badosa and that includes a variety of surfaces, even Indian Wells back in 2019. Looks more like a coin-flip to me. At +2.5, I'd rather play the moneyline, but I'll stick with the +3.5 handicap here, even due to the nature of the match-up that's not too likely to produce a short set.

[raduvlad1995]

19 hours ago, Torque said:

Agree with this. Fritz didn't serve well against Munar and was fortunate not to lose the match. Whatever you think of De Minaur, he's certainly a step up from a grinder like Munar.

in the end fritz barely scraped on, I think de minaur was actualy the better player even is he lost. 

[raduvlad1995]

interesting quarters on the men's side , interested on how you guys view them. The only one I m mostly sure of is that rublev will beat dimitrov, andrey seems back at his best and normaly since he just has much more consistent power and a better return than grigor he should win. I definetly think kecmanovic will atleast win 1 set against fritz if he mantains his level which I see no reason why he shouldn't. Kyrgios is a clown but when focused like he is now , he can put a winning perfromance against nadal(I just have a general rule of never gambling on nick though) . Carlito has a good shot to beat norrie, but the brit is very solid and I m too scared to bet against him now. Opinions on swiatek-halep ? both seem to be in amazing form

[CzechPunter]

Well, Swiatek has finally won the first set of a match, so she'll be unbeatable haha. She's looked better than Halep so far.

[Torque]

8 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

in the end fritz barely scraped on, I think de minaur was actualy the better player even is he lost. 

That can happen sometimes if you lose the key points in a match.

[neilovan]

8 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

interesting quarters on the men's side , interested on how you guys view them. The only one I m mostly sure of is that rublev will beat dimitrov, andrey seems back at his best and normaly since he just has much more consistent power and a better return than grigor he should win. I definetly think kecmanovic will atleast win 1 set against fritz if he mantains his level which I see no reason why he shouldn't. Kyrgios is a clown but when focused like he is now , he can put a winning perfromance against nadal(I just have a general rule of never gambling on nick though) . Carlito has a good shot to beat norrie, but the brit is very solid and I m too scared to bet against him now. Opinions on swiatek-halep ? both seem to be in amazing form

I think there is almost nothing between them. Swiatek likes the slower surface, but I have not seen Halep play this well in years. She is moving incredibly well, and hitting the ball with power. Maybe having no coach is helping her. She has figured out her own game and what she wants to do. For me the winner of the tourn comes from these two.

Fritz could easily lose to Kecmanovic, who is playing well  ... it looks like a breakout period for him. Fritz was sailing close to the wind with de Minaur, and he may tip over here. Lost his serve quite a few times, and if that serve is not working properly he is in some trouble. I expected Cilic to beat Kecmanovic, and Fritz could be a very similar challenge.

I think you cannot forget the match where Kyrigos tried to hit Nadal with a ball. Regardless of what Nadal says, I'm pretty sure the last thing he wants to do is lose to Kyrigos. Pretty sure he hasn't forgotten that stuff, and revenge is sweet, and best served on the court. I expect a full focused Nadal to blitz him. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

7 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I think there is almost nothing between them. Swiatek likes the slower surface, but I have not seen Halep play this well in years. She is moving incredibly well, and hitting the ball with power. Maybe having no coach is helping her. She has figured out her own game and what she wants to do. For me the winner of the tourn comes from these two.

Fritz could easily lose to Kecmanovic, who is playing well  ... it looks like a breakout period for him. Fritz was sailing close to the wind with de Minaur, and he may tip over here. Lost his serve quite a few times, and if that serve is not working properly he is in some trouble. I expected Cilic to beat Kecmanovic, and Fritz could be a very similar challenge.

I think you cannot forget the match where Kyrigos tried to hit Nadal with a ball. Regardless of what Nadal says, I'm pretty sure the last thing he wants to do is lose to Kyrigos. Pretty sure he hasn't forgotten that stuff, and revenge is sweet, and best served on the court. I expect a full focused Nadal to blitz him. 

oh I so hope nadal beats that douche soundly. 

[Torque]

I'll be backing Kyrgios to beat Nadal today. I just think at the price he's got to be taken and especially as he raises his game against the best players, as shown by the fact he's beaten all of them before at least once and that includes Nadal. The conditions favour Nadal as it's a slower court, but it's still a hard court and that gives Kyrgios a better chance of winning than if it was clay. It's also worth considering that Nadal has alluded to foot pain during his last couple of matches and as I mentioned before it's questionable whether his body will hold up until the end of the tournament, especially with the European clay swing just around the corner and so you wonder if it's worth it for Nadal to really push here with the French Open his ultimate focus right now. He's already pulled out of Miami so losing to Kyrgios would give him plenty of time to rest and recharge before hitting the dirt.

With that in mind I'm topping up on two outrights on the exchanges in the shape of Rublev and Alcaraz. If Nadal doesn't win the tournament then I think one of those two will. I'm also topping up on Halep on the Women's side on the exchanges. Despite winning easily against Martic her outright price has hardly moved, and that's probably because her next match is against Swiatek who gave Keys a shellacking. That doesn't put me off backing Halep though, as she's a completely different player to Keys. She's able to be patient and she won't make the unforced errors that Keys made and she has all the experience needed to get the better of Swiatek.

 

25pts Kyrgios to beat Nadal @ 3.25 Boyles

25pts Rublev to win ATP Indian Wells @ 4.92

20pts Alcaraz to win ATP Indian Wells @ 4.82

-----------------------------------------------------

45pts Halep to win WTA Indian Wells @ 4.33

 

[neilovan]

10 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

oh I so hope nadal beats that douche soundly. 

I don't mind Kyrigos. I like talent. It's so liquid and immeasurable. I also get his attitude to endless travel, flights, taxi's, strange cities, weird beds and bad nights sleep. After a while it really doesn't matter if it's 5 star or 3 star. Most would like to be home. Sleep in own bed, rummage in the fridge, hang out with friends, walk around naked (in your own house), goof off, use your own toilet. And tennis is just a brutal 11 month repetitive process.  After a while things look and feel the same, and everything tastes like chicken!

 

[Torque]

18 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

oh I so hope nadal beats that douche soundly. 

I'd prefer Nadal to win also, but from a price perspective Kyrgios is the play for me. You've got to try to be dispassionate when trying to assess what's worth betting on.

[Torque]

9 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

interesting quarters on the men's side , interested on how you guys view them. The only one I m mostly sure of is that rublev will beat dimitrov, andrey seems back at his best and normaly since he just has much more consistent power and a better return than grigor he should win. I definetly think kecmanovic will atleast win 1 set against fritz if he mantains his level which I see no reason why he shouldn't. Kyrgios is a clown but when focused like he is now , he can put a winning perfromance against nadal(I just have a general rule of never gambling on nick though) . Carlito has a good shot to beat norrie, but the brit is very solid and I m too scared to bet against him now. Opinions on swiatek-halep ? both seem to be in amazing form

Finding myself agreeing with you again. I'll be hoping for a Halep win and I think there's every chance she gets it. If you discard the match against Keys which was a blowout, Swiatek has found winning at this tournament hard to come by. The players that she's struggled against aren't in the class of Halep and on top of that Halep is playing well, so this should be a close match at the very least and at the prices I would have to back Halep.

[CzechPunter]

I can only echo the sentiments on Kyrgios and Nadal. The conditions should favor Nadal, but he's hardly in a great form, at least he wasn't in the match against Nadal and the struggles against Opelka were revealing as well. Kyrgios is much better in Opelka in rallies.

[CzechPunter]

Won't be siding with either Swiatek or Halep....not only am I reading it wrong at the moment, but I think the odds are likely correct. Hopefully the lukewarm season will start to improve as soon as possible.

[CzechPunter]

But yeah, I have to admit that I'd like to back Badosa, she seems destined to defend the title honestly.

Paula Badosa to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.85 with Pinnacle

I'll be very disappointed if this doesn't win, but she's gone through more difficulties than Sakkari and has cleared all of them with something to spare. Sakkari was challenged by Saville early on, but the later got re-injured and folded. Rybakina has been semi-serious lately, didn't seem to enjoy herself at all. Now, Badosa beat the tricky customer in Martincova, then two strong performers in Fernandez and Kudermetova, even crushing the latter completely. 

[888888]

had Kyrgios 1st set, serving for the 1st set and obviously gets broken and then loses the tb , typical rat face man

[Torque]

The first set was key. Had he taken that, I think he would have won the match. Looked a lot like a choke to me, going from 30-15 serving for the set to broken without winning another point. The tie-break that followed was embarrassing as Kyrgios failed to win even a single point and lost the set due to a code violation. He deserves some credit for recovering in the second and getting a late break to take it to a decider, but then he seemed to run out of steam a little and the quality of his serving dropped. Serving a double-fault to get broken was pretty much what decided the match, as Nadal's level dropped in the final set also. It'll be very interesting to see what Nadal has left in the tank after three sets against Korda, two long ones against Opelka and then another three against Kyrgios. With any luck he'll face Alcaraz next and that might just be a step too far as he's capable of rallying for at least as long as Nadal is. If he gets Norrie and despite Norrie's good form then I can see him going through without much difficulty as he's always done well against fellow lefties.

[raduvlad1995]

12 hours ago, neilovan said:

I don't mind Kyrigos. I like . It's so liquid and immeasurable. I get to endless travel, flights, taxi's, strange , weird and bad sleep. After a while it doesn't matter if it's 5 star or 3 star. Most would like to be home. Sleep in own bed, rummage in the , hang out with friends, walk around naked (in your own house), goof off, use your own . And is just a brutal 11 repetitive process.  After a while things look and feel the same, and everything tastes like !

 

I also used to like nick back in the day, the guy is exactly my age and I liked that he was creative on the court and put on a show. But with time he's shown his true colors and acted like a spoiled weirdo all of the time and tanked matches(which is a massive no-no for me as a bettor and tennis fan), never mind that I ll never forget what the guy said to wawrinka which is my all time favorite player. All players have to put up with what you ve said, but unlike nick they try their best and don t complain for the fortunate position they re  in.

[CzechPunter]

@888888 Let's not sink down to this!

[neilovan]

Woke up early and caught some of the Alcaraz v Norrie match. Norrie really didn't play badly. Seemed to suffer a slight hip-flexor/ groin strain but Alcaraz was just dynamic. His movement was insane, and he hit Norrie off the court constantly. I cannot see Nadal beating him. The improvements in his game are unbelievable, and the hype is for real. His game is phenomenal!  If he stays healthy, Alcaraz  will be the new king of tennis.

I still am not convinced regarding Swiatek. I think Halep runs her very close, probably winning. For me a small bet double on Halep and Alcaraz to win tournament/s. 

[lelit]

A few local writers (esp Torque :)) are too concerned about the historical and current achievements of Halep, and several  unearthed Iga's weaknesses. 
  Swiatek is a brand new tennis tycoon, well positioned by the new coach; I expect Romanian will be outpowered in this match.

My bet:  -2.5 Swiatek 1.8 at Onsidebetting

[neilovan]

32 minutes ago, lelit said:

A few local writers (esp Torque :)) are too concerned about the historical and current achievements of Halep, and several  unearthed Iga's weaknesses. 
  Swiatek is a brand new tennis tycoon, well positioned by the new coach; I expect Romanian will be outpowered in this match.

My bet:  -2.5 Swiatek 1.8 at Onsidebetting

What I like to see in players is improvement. A player who has worked hard on an aspect of their game. For example Tauson and Rybakina need to get fitter, and move better on the court. Sabalenka and Badosa need to make their serve better, and more consistent. Halep needs to be more proactive and aggressive, and take a few more chances. Berrettini needs to make his backhand stronger, and get away from his (limited) slice. Tiafoe needs more focus. Everyone should be trying to improve.

I see Sakkari really serving well. She is serving close to the best of her life. The serve has pop and snap, which is not easy to do, when you are not that tall. It's definitely going through the air quicker. She actually demolished Rybakina. After being down 1-4 after a slow start she won the set 7-5 (or 6-1) , and rolled over her opponent easily.

I have not seen Alcaraz hit the ball like he did against Norrie. Have not seen Halep hit the groundstrokes that hard, with so much aggression. Haven't seen Sakkari serve anything close to what she is doing now. It's impressive, and you need to adjust your betting accordingly. 

On the flip side you ask yourself "has Rubalev  or Fritz improved their games?" . I don't really think so. Can't see much different now, to how they played 6 months ago. 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

18 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

But yeah, I have to admit that I'd like to back Badosa, she seems destined to defend the title honestly.

Paula Badosa to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.85 with Pinnacle

I'll be very disappointed if this doesn't win, but she's gone through more difficulties than Sakkari and has cleared all of them with something to spare. Sakkari was challenged by Saville early on, but the later got re-injured and folded. Rybakina has been semi-serious lately, didn't seem to enjoy herself at all. Now, Badosa beat the tricky customer in Martincova, then two strong performers in Fernandez and Kudermetova, even crushing the latter completely. 

Good luck with the bet, I hope you win. I think Badosa is an unbelievable talent, but the serve is not effective. She is grinding through serve games, and it looks so strange, because she is potentially so good. For her to win, she has to get the serve improved by 15%, and I don't think she is there yet. I'm not really a Sakkari fan, but I do like her fire and determination.

Edited March 18, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

55 minutes ago, lelit said:

A few local writers (esp Torque :)) are too concerned about the historical and current achievements of Halep, and several  unearthed Iga's weaknesses. 
  Swiatek is a brand new tennis tycoon, well positioned by the new coach; I expect Romanian will be outpowered in this match.

My bet:  -2.5 Swiatek 1.8 at Onsidebetting

I'm not too concerned about anything and I certainly acknowledge Swiatek's talent and potential. She may well beat Halep, but as ever for me it's about the price. That's what counts. That's what provides the context. If the prices were reversed I'm pretty sure I'd be thinking Swiatek was the player to back.

[Torque]

Just a bit more on Rublev in the outrights this evening for me. I think he beats Dimitrov and then either Fritz or Kecmanovic to make the final and if it does turn out that way, I can't imagine his price will be the same or bigger than the one I'm taking now no matter who he plays.

15pts Rublev to win ATP Indian Wells @ 5.70 Betfair Exchange

[neilovan]

20 minutes ago, Torque said:

Just a bit more on Rublev in the outrights this evening for me. I think he beats Dimitrov and then either Fritz or Kecmanovic to make the final and if it does turn out that way, I can't imagine his price will be the same or bigger than the one I'm taking now no matter who he plays.

15pts Rublev to win ATP Indian Wells @ 5.70 Betfair Exchange

I just have a strange feeling that Dimitrov is gonna win here in 3 sets. Last year he beat Hurkacz and Medvedev in 3 sets at this tournament. It's a great a price 6-1, which suites my strategy of smaller bets at bigger odds in later rounds. I'm not impressed by Rublev.

Edited March 18, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

8 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I just have a strange feeling that Dimitrov is gonna win here in 3 sets. Last year he beat Hurkacz and Medvedev in 3 sets at this tournament. It's a great a price 6-1, which suites my strategy of smaller bets at bigger odds in later rounds. I'm not impressed by Rublev.

I can see what you're saying, but I lost faith in Dimitrov a long time ago. I'm no big fan of Rublev either, but out of the two he's the one I want to side with.

[CzechPunter]

Dimitrov is a massive enigma honestly. He's turned into a player that can lose against anyone, but still worth backing at big odds here and there I feel. Very streaky, not sure if that has something to do with long COVID or something else, impossible to tell. I've been focusing a lot on the WTA lately, hopefully I can figure out some nice underdogs like some years ago. Obviously a huge fan of Osaka's antics, that's just incredible.