Pricing your own race

[richard-westwood]

55 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

do speed only for last recent race if other race was several months ago.

I have scribbled that down as plan b already .... I'll keep track of that idea on the side to see if that solves the problem because it may well be the solution .....but I'll stick with original until I've proven that idea solves the problem ........theres definately something wrong because it never goes that long without a winner .....it feels wrong ...like was said above it feels flawed if the horse improves thexratings will be inaccurate .....it may well be just taking the last race only solves the problem but I've got to prove that first .....I'll get it to work I've no doubt about that ....will just take a bit of finesse lol 

[Hotspur88]

41 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Rexrated the victoria cup but unusually rated as follows 

Motakhayyel   8.7 

Green side   8.4 

Jack's point 8.4 

Keysir soze  8.1 

Escobar    8.1 

Fox champion  7.8 

Eagleway    7.8 

Top 3 here almost identical to top 4 on other ....I've backed Jack's point already so with motak at 22.0 ...and green side at 32.0 !!....I'll try 10pt wins those 2 betfair 

Last time I did this it helped you when I had info for a race as you went against it and it worked out for you so hopefully it happens again but there is no confidence in Motakhayyel today due to the weight it's carrying. Just thought I would pass it on to you. 

[richard-westwood]

30 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Last time I did this it helped you when I had info for a race as you went against it and it worked out for you so hopefully it happens again but there is no confidence in Motakhayyel today due to the weight it's carrying. Just thought I would pass it on to you. 

Yeah this race is biased to lower weights and 4 and 5 yr olds so top 2 have it all to do ....but they are high on both so I'd die if one won at 32.0 and I didnt back .....its a pinstickers tbh 27 runners ...crazy hard ...but at those prices only have to fluke it once ?

Edited May 8, 2021 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Rexrated the victoria cup but unusually rated as follows 

Motakhayyel   8.7 

Green side   8.4 

Jack's point 8.4 

Keysir soze  8.1 

Escobar    8.1 

Fox champion  7.8 

Eagleway    7.8 

Top 3 here almost identical to top 4 on other ....I've backed Jack's point already so with motak at 22.0 ...and green side at 32.0 !!....I'll try 10pt wins those 2 betfair 

Eagleway placed at 80/1....Escobar placed at big price .....less than 1pt between top and 80/1 at bottom so anything within 1pt can win in reality...so really we are looking for races where the top is at least 1pt clear of 3rd preferably I'll keep that in mind going forward 

Edited May 8, 2021 by richard-westwood

[DanV89]

I backed 

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Eagleway placed at 80/1....Escobar placed at big price .....less than 1pt between top and 80/1 at bottom so anything within 1pt can win in reality...so really we are looking for races where the top is at least 1pt clear of 3rd preferably I'll keep that in mind going forward 

I backed Eagleway at 140/1 ew based on your ratings so I think I owe you a beer. 

[BBBC]

Tomorrow's race 1538 Plumpton

I've used this race as there are plenty of bookies doing ew extra places - sky are doing 5 if 12 run, currently 14 standing.

Ratings: 

Billys Angel 8.6 my price 13/2 best price 8/1 paddypower

Decoration of War 7.4 my price 17/2 best price 14/1 including sky

Next best horses 6.2 and 6.1.

No money on the exchange to compare against.

Bet will be 1pt ew on both ideally with the 5 places.

Probably wouldn't have done Decoration of War as full point behind but I've had it as a nap pick before (placed) and its had the witchcraft of wind surgery applied so can't resist.

[richard-westwood]

Just testing a few things out ....only got crap irish racing to test on but it'll do for testing purposes 

445 leopard 

Macadams rock  8.1 

Britzka     6.9 

Sassafied  6.8

Top 2 ew ...6/1 ....16/1 

 

[BBBC]

14 hours ago, BBBC said:

Tomorrow's race 1538 Plumpton

I've used this race as there are plenty of bookies doing ew extra places - sky are doing 5 if 12 run, currently 14 standing.

Ratings: 

Billys Angel 8.6 my price 13/2 best price 8/1 paddypower

Decoration of War 7.4 my price 17/2 best price 14/1 including sky

Next best horses 6.2 and 6.1.

No money on the exchange to compare against.

Bet will be 1pt ew on both ideally with the 5 places.

Probably wouldn't have done Decoration of War as full point behind but I've had it as a nap pick before (placed) and its had the witchcraft of wind surgery applied so can't resist.

Taken 1pt ew on Billys Angel @ 10/1 and 1pt ew on Decoration of War @ 16/1 - 5 places but no bog

[richard-westwood]

245 leopard 

Sense of style  7.0 13/2 

Acsnella      6.2 5/1 

Any number of improvers but top 2 ew look the bets 

[BBBC]

4 hours ago, BBBC said:

Taken 1pt ew on Billys Angel @ 10/1 and 1pt ew on Decoration of War @ 16/1 - 5 places but no bog

Decoration of war led for most of the race but ran out of steam. 3rd at sp of 12/1.

Billys Angel drifted like a barge - sp 16/1 but touched 18/1. Never really in contention but thought it might sneak a place going over the last but came together with another and finished 9th.

1pt ew @ 16/1 5 places 1/5 = 4.2 return minus 4 stakes = +0.2

Running total = +5.5 pts

[BBBC]

Tomorrow's race 1625 Windsor

4 places from Skybet if more than 8 run, 4 places from Hills if all 12 stand. It's also one of the bet 365 4/1 feature races.

Ratings: 

Hawridge Storm 9.6 my price 6/1 best price 15/2 Skybet

Next best:

Bad Company 7.6 (great course and distance record but off 187 days)

Leroy leroy 7.3 (finished neck behind selection with a 1lb pull)

Amir Kabir 6.9 (fav)

As its 2 points clear I have to go with Hawridge. Bet will be 1pt ew but will be checking price tomorrow as currently 11.5 on betfair exchange.

[Hotspur88]

10 hours ago, BBBC said:

Tomorrow's race 1625 Windsor

4 places from Skybet if more than 8 run, 4 places from Hills if all 12 stand. It's also one of the bet 365 4/1 feature races.

Ratings: 

Hawridge Storm 9.6 my price 6/1 best price 15/2 Skybet

Next best:

Bad Company 7.6 (great course and distance record but off 187 days)

Leroy leroy 7.3 (finished neck behind selection with a 1lb pull)

Amir Kabir 6.9 (fav)

As its 2 points clear I have to go with Hawridge. Bet will be 1pt ew but will be checking price tomorrow as currently 11.5 on betfair exchange.

Really like the look of Hawridge Storm and think I'm going to back it. Best price I can get is 9/1 with a bet boost on Hills so I'll do that (4 places). Only concern is possibly the ground? 

[BBBC]

2 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Really like the look of Hawridge Storm and think I'm going to back it. Best price I can get is 9/1 with a bet boost on Hills so I'll do that (4 places). Only concern is possibly the ground? 

Ground is an unknown. Looking at its history on soft it did come 2nd in a C3 at ascot in 2019. The rest is pretty uninspiring.

In my system I do award bonus points for those with good records on going, distance or course but don't penalise those with bad or no record (maybe I should).

Although I didn't award any bonus points for it I am happy with the jockey booking - Oisin and Millman's yard is doing ok.

I've taken the 17/2 and used my bet boost as well (I'm sure it only applies to the win part not the place). It's all up to chance now!

[Wildgarden]

12 hours ago, BBBC said:

Tomorrow's race 1625 Windsor

4 places from Skybet if more than 8 run, 4 places from Hills if all 12 stand. It's also one of the bet 365 4/1 feature races.

Ratings: 

Hawridge Storm 9.6 my price 6/1 best price 15/2 Skybet

Next best:

Bad Company 7.6 (great course and distance record but off 187 days)

Leroy leroy 7.3 (finished neck behind selection with a 1lb pull)

Amir Kabir 6.9 (fav)

As its 2 points clear I have to go with Hawridge. Bet will be 1pt ew but will be checking price tomorrow as currently 11.5 on betfair exchange.

ive gone pick crazy on this one with psyche at 38.0 to win prob put place after too on 4 to place marker when more formed.

[BBBC]

6 hours ago, BBBC said:

Ground is an unknown. Looking at its history on soft it did come 2nd in a C3 at ascot in 2019. The rest is pretty uninspiring.

In my system I do award bonus points for those with good records on going, distance or course but don't penalise those with bad or no record (maybe I should).

Although I didn't award any bonus points for it I am happy with the jockey booking - Oisin and Millman's yard is doing ok.

I've taken the 17/2 and used my bet boost as well (I'm sure it only applies to the win part not the place). It's all up to chance now!

Hmmm -  I can't help feeling this was a lost cause after 1f of running. It came from the back last time but not sure it was quite as far back. Too much ground to make up (maybe compounded by the soft ground).

Strange betting as only the fav and 2nd fav (winner) seemed to shorten during the day. Hawridge touched 12/1 but came right back in so SP was 13/2 with 9.19 on the exchange. Somebody fancied it but it wasn't to be.

-2 for stakes

Running total = + 3.5

[BBBC]

Tomorrows Race 1830 Ayr

5 places with sky if 12 run. Most others doing 4 places. Currently 14 stand.

3 are miles ahead on the ratings:

Perfect soldier 9.6 my price 13/2 best price 6/1 @ Paddy power / betfair

Lagendra 8.6 my price 7/1 best price 12/1 pretty much everywhere

Corndavon Lad 8.3 my price 15/2 best price 4/1 @ Hills 

Perfect soldier up 2lb but Andrew Breslin claims 5lb so expect it to confirm placings over Lagendra. Corndavon Lad up 5lb and loses 5lb claim from Oisin McSweeney.

I'll trust the ratings.

1 pt ew on Perfect Soldier after market is established.

 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, BBBC said:

Tomorrows Race 1830 Ayr

5 places with sky if 12 run. Most others doing 4 places. Currently 14 stand.

3 are miles ahead on the ratings:

Perfect soldier 9.6 my price 13/2 best price 6/1 @ Paddy power / betfair

Lagendra 8.6 my price 7/1 best price 12/1 pretty much everywhere

Corndavon Lad 8.3 my price 15/2 best price 4/1 @ Hills 

Perfect soldier up 2lb but Andrew Breslin claims 5lb so expect it to confirm placings over Lagendra. Corndavon Lad up 5lb and loses 5lb claim from Oisin McSweeney.

I'll trust the ratings.

1 pt ew on Perfect Soldier after market is established.

 

ive got bankawi here

[BBBC]

13 hours ago, BBBC said:

Tomorrows Race 1830 Ayr

5 places with sky if 12 run. Most others doing 4 places. Currently 14 stand.

3 are miles ahead on the ratings:

Perfect soldier 9.6 my price 13/2 best price 6/1 @ Paddy power / betfair

Lagendra 8.6 my price 7/1 best price 12/1 pretty much everywhere

Corndavon Lad 8.3 my price 15/2 best price 4/1 @ Hills 

Perfect soldier up 2lb but Andrew Breslin claims 5lb so expect it to confirm placings over Lagendra. Corndavon Lad up 5lb and loses 5lb claim from Oisin McSweeney.

I'll trust the ratings.

1 pt ew on Perfect Soldier after market is established.

 

Perfect Soldier non runner.

Next best was Lagendra which is drifting. Best price 22/1 @ betfair / paddy power with 4 places or 20/1 sky 5 places.

3rd selection is favourite. Even with 5 places backing a 3/1 shot each way doesnt fit my staking plan.

So bet will be 1 pt ew with the 5 places once I think the price has gone out as far as it will go.

@Wildgarden's pick of Bankawi is rock solid in the market with a best price 9/2. 

[BBBC]

7 hours ago, BBBC said:

Perfect Soldier non runner.

Next best was Lagendra which is drifting. Best price 22/1 @ betfair / paddy power with 4 places or 20/1 sky 5 places.

3rd selection is favourite. Even with 5 places backing a 3/1 shot each way doesnt fit my staking plan.

So bet will be 1 pt ew with the 5 places once I think the price has gone out as far as it will go.

@Wildgarden's pick of Bankawi is rock solid in the market with a best price 9/2. 

Very poor. Continued to drift and eventually backed it at 33/1. Ran like a 300/1 shot. Plum last.

Easy to see now but the sensible play would have been no bet after the original selection was a non runner.

Learning point - be more circumspect regarding a decent lto after a string of duck eggs especially if the market shows negative vibes. 

-2 for stakes

Running total = + 1.5

 

[Hotspur88]

Very quiet in here ?

[MCLARKE]

I'm working on a ratings system but not ready yet to unleash on the world !

[BBBC]

@Barnes1882 apologies just haven't had the time to rate and post anything up due to other commitments. Should hopefully get a race done tomorrow ready for Friday. In the mean time just think of the money you are saving with none of my tips posted ?

 

[Hotspur88]

10 minutes ago, BBBC said:

@Barnes1882 apologies just haven't had the time to rate and post anything up due to other commitments. Should hopefully get a race done tomorrow ready for Friday. In the mean time just think of the money you are saving with none of my tips posted ?

 

Hahahaha.

I haven't even been backing many of them to be honest but between yourself and @richard-westwoodI have enjoyed reading and seeing seeing you have rated the races. Richard has been quiet so must be busy at work. 

No need to apologise at all by the way, as I said, just enjoy seeing other people's ratings.

[Wildgarden]

13 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Very quiet in here ?

busy but mid winster is good each shot 140 at big price.

[Pirate53]

15 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Very quiet in here ?

Decorating!!

[Wildgarden]

3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

busy but mid winster is good each shot 140 at big price.

busy printing. mid winter places 4.5 i had

[BBBC]

Back on it (especially for @Barnes1882)

Tomorrow's race 1540 York

20 runner handicap with sky paying 7 places if at least 18 run. Hills, Betfair / Paddy Power offering 6 places.

Top 3 rated:

Star Shield 9.1 pts my odds 9/1 best price 18/1 @ bet365 but only 12/1 @ skybet

Fortamour 7.5 pts my odds 11/1 best price 10/1 @ lots

Boardman 7.4 pts my odds 11/1 best price 13/2 @ bet365 and Hills

But in addition to these ratings 2 of these have question marks for me.

Star shield - off 251 days, missing cheekpieces from last win and outside draw.

Boardman likely favourite but poor value. 2nd to last run wasn't good at all. Up 5lb for win which is the highest mark its won from.

Based on pts alone my play will be 1/2 pt each way on Star Shield probably looking for 16/1 with the extra places and may even leave to SP.  But my confidence isn't especially high. 

Outside of the ratings though I fancy 2 others.

Shawaamekh rated at 6.5 pts - really its last run at Chester should be up rated ( @Wildgarden as per your advice I've been watching replays!). 7f on that tight track means you need to break well - it was plum last after 50 yards and was quite a distance behind going into the straight. It was flying at the end and would have won with an extra 50 yards. Its a CD winner and York is a far more forgiving track. 

Muntadad rated at 6 pts - getting on a bit at 9 but just too damn well handicappped for me to ignore.

I won't include these bets for my ongoing ratings but I will be having these tomorrow:

Shawaamekh at least 1 pt ew best price 7/1 @ bet365 with 13/2 from skybet with 7 places. 

Muntadab 1/2 pt ew best price 12/1 @ bet365 with 10/1 from skybet with 7 places

 

[BBBC]

Star Shield drifted. I left the bet to SP which was 28/1. Finished 13th of 18.

1/2 pt ew = -1

Running total = + 0.5

3rd rated wins @ 7/2. Obviously my misgivings were unfounded.

My own selections Shawaamekh finished 7th, so just squeaked the place with skybet and Muntadab was 9th. I still think the latter is well  weighted and may go in soon. 

[richard-westwood]

Sorry about the quiet spell.....I have been working and playing with a few diff ratings ....in the process I've accidentally stumbled onto something very promising it's a completely diff rating I cant apply to this but it's made,a lot of money this week but I cant unleash it on the world until I've tested it a lot more and ironed out the rules.....

I've got this week off so I'm back after tomorrow night with fresh eyes ....I'll spend this week rating as many races as possible and try and get this form rating right .....its shown what's capable if you can get the rating accurate so I'll be back with fresh eyes tomorrow....nice to see people rating away though .....really want to get this rating formula set by the end of the month so we can have a lot of fun through the summer when the flat hits it peak so that's my main priority ......I'll be back lol 

[richard-westwood]

So ....I've learnt a lot though  .....definately need recent form rating ...I have been using 30% but I think 20% is probably ok on that ....that's set in stone so far .......as times gone on I've realised you really need an age adjustment starting at 7yo ...I reckon a -.5 for 7yo possibly rising to 1 pt at 8 + ?? ...not surexwhether to make that part of the formula or add as a bonus later but it gotta be in somehow .....so I'm working my way through the formula lol .......I'm toying with fitness at mo ...I really think the horse needs to have had a run in last 6 weeks to be able to run to it's best si I'm thinking 10 % .......