richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 On 4/29/2021 at 12:34 PM, richard-westwood said: Palace house stakes saturday Came from dark 9.6 Garrus 8.9 Lazuli 8.7 Aljady 8.4 Arecibo 8.4 Tight race but I'll stick with ratings and take the short fav lazuli on .....5/1 both 10pt wins came from ..and garrus Just a thought ...Appleby and Buick are top 3 rated on all races I've rated so far ..... could be a sizeable win if all go in and I'm not finished yet (lazuli in this race ) 2nd again here ..4th in the last race ..I think came came from the dark woukd have won if his run hadn't been boxed and checked ....not going too well +481.00 ....but that's the guineas meeting for you Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 (edited) On 4/29/2021 at 1:18 PM, richard-westwood said: Thirsk hunt cup saturday Nugget 9.3 9/2 Queens sergeant 8.1 16/1 Hartswood 7.8 Top 2 rated 10pt wins 9/2 and 16/1 2nd again!!.....just dogged with bad luck +461.00 Edited May 1, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 On 4/28/2021 at 8:55 PM, richard-westwood said: Current profit ....+571.00 2000 guineas final ratings Small bonus for class and ground applied St Mark's basilica 9.4 Master of seas 9.0 Van gogh 8.9 Poetic flare 8.8 Lucky Vega 8.7 Naval crown 8.6 Wembley 8.6 Extremely close race as youd expect as you have to be talented to even get in ......I dont like wembley ...he has been well backed into fav but not proven winner at group 1 .....st Mark's basilica looks a very decent price on betfair currently 13.5 ....has beaten wembley on soft ground ...the adjusted speed figures for that race stack up ..interesting .....master of seas also looks overpriced on betfair at 11.0 .......its an open race but at those prices I'm happy to play those 2 at current prices St Mark's basilica 10pt win 13.5 betfair Master of the sea 10pt win 11.0 betfair With st Mark's out ...3rd rated poetic beats top rated master in a photo ....doesnt get more gutting Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 On 4/28/2021 at 8:55 PM, richard-westwood said: Current profit ....+571.00 2000 guineas final ratings Small bonus for class and ground applied St Mark's basilica 9.4 Master of seas 9.0 Van gogh 8.9 Poetic flare 8.8 Lucky Vega 8.7 Naval crown 8.6 Wembley 8.6 Extremely close race as youd expect as you have to be talented to even get in ......I dont like wembley ...he has been well backed into fav but not proven winner at group 1 .....st Mark's basilica looks a very decent price on betfair currently 13.5 ....has beaten wembley on soft ground ...the adjusted speed figures for that race stack up ..interesting .....master of seas also looks overpriced on betfair at 11.0 .......its an open race but at those prices I'm happy to play those 2 at current prices St Mark's basilica 10pt win 13.5 betfair Master of the sea 10pt win 11.0 betfair nearly had tricast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: nearly had tricast? 4 of top 5 finished top 4 Wildgarden and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 (edited) On 4/30/2021 at 2:36 PM, richard-westwood said: 350 thirsk sat Restless endeavour 8.9 6/1 Freedom flyer 8.0 6/1 Medicine jack 7.6 10/1 . Medicine jack is good value ew but I'll chance top 2 rated both at 6/1 2x 10pt wins And to finish off .....2nd ......unbelievable ......I think 6 of last 8 races finished 2nd .....so much bad luck ? +421.00 .....awful couple days ....could have been so much diff Cant complain about ratings ...they've been very accurate just beaten by outsiders or pure bad luck ....2 or 3 were pipped on line .... Edited May 1, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: And to finish off .....2nd ......unbelievable ......I think 6 of last 8 races finished 2nd .....so much bad luck ? +421.00 .....awful couple days ....could have been so much diff Cant complain about ratings ...they've been very accurate just beaten by outsiders or pure bad luck ....2 or 3 were pipped on line .... need to do 2nd only market this rate! richard-westwood and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: need to do 2nd only market this rate! Kinda bittersweet .....the ratings have done really well .... ..but you need a bit of luck too .... Wildgarden and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Kinda bittersweet .....the ratings have done really well .... ..but you need a bit of luck too .... yeah ive had same places today hard day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Keep the faith guys. The ratings really aren't far off as the selections have gone really close. Slightly different luck and the results could have been totally different. If its any consolation I haven't managed a winner today just a multitude of 2nd and 3rds with only some ew - lots of yours plus maydanny, agincourt, sebastapol all win only but 2nd. Think its just been one of those days ... Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 (edited) On 5/1/2021 at 11:26 AM, richard-westwood said: 1000 guineas re rated Alcohol free 9.9 Mother earth 9.2 Sacred 8.7 Saffron beach 8.1 Alcohol free I've already backed so I'll add 10pt win mother earth 8/1 Mother earth wins 10/1 !!....that better Back up to +511.00 Edited May 2, 2021 by richard-westwood vikki37, CarlosUK, Pirate53 and 7 others 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 My first attempt at posting a rating - maybe one to watch rather than stake (please see my recent naps table form for examples of quality!) 1556 Kempton class 4 hcap hurdle 8.3 Wicked Willy 6.7 Miss Farage 6.7 (next best) I had Wicked Willy at about 7/1 which is what it opened up at ... drifted all morning now 16/1 @ bet365 and a few are going 4 places on this race as well ... I'll keep an eye on the market but I will be having a small stakes ew play when i think its drifted to its max richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 When a horse drifts is this a warning sign? I haven't done a lot of analysis but on a system I use for short priced favourites those horses that drifted showed a loss at SP, those that shortened showed a profit. Wildgarden and BBBC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 @MCLARKE its an excellent point you raise. Its drifting out on the exchange as well. And bet365 are now 18/1. If it was a short priced fancy or if the market changes were down to a steamer I'd be more worried. Obviously the drift isn't a sign of market confidence but I'll still have a pop for 2 main reasons 1 my value angle means i could be getting 18/1 plus on a horse i thought would be 7/1. That i find hard to resist. Couple in extra places for the each way and I think you then have an angle you can benefit from over the long term 2 I'm not sure if its the tale wagging the dog but the prices offered by bookies invariably seem to reflect the exchange - the bookies will catch up a couple of minutes after a shortening on the exchange. They are slower to follow drifters. But at this time the amount on the exchange (7k total market) is a tiny fraction of what it will end up at. For me, this isnt necessarily a great indicator of likely SP. I'll probably play closer to the off but a further drift nearer post time I would definitely interpret as a negative gbettle, Wildgarden and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: When a horse drifts is this a warning sign? I haven't done a lot of analysis but on a system I use for short priced favourites those horses that drifted showed a loss at SP, those that shortened showed a profit. If they are backed, and then drift later seems ok. Just drifting is a big negative for me judged on results (always exceptions of course). MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Was going to avoid irish but rated a few races and this one sticks out 525 curr Trueba 8.9 10.5 Inventor 8.4 10.5 War hero 7.9 26.0 Zen silence 7.5 Big prices on top 2 so I'll just play 2x 10pt wins peanut peanut, gbettle and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Wicked Willy continued to drift. In the end I had a small ew with sky bet at SP as they don't do BOG with extra places. It stayed in touch during the whole race without ever looking like a potential winner. But it did grab the 4th place. The winner was the favourite and only horse in the race to be backed to any major extent. 1pt each way = total stake 2pt Return 4.6pt Profit 2.6pt Can I claim that as a success? Not sure but at least its not a loss. Wildgarden and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Was going to avoid irish but rated a few races and this one sticks out 525 curr Trueba 8.9 10.5 Inventor 8.4 10.5 War hero 7.9 26.0 Zen silence 7.5 Big prices on top 2 so I'll just play 2x 10pt wins I should have just stayed away...none of the top 4 finished anywhere ...that's irish racing in a nutshell ....leave it alone richee Wildgarden and vikki37 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 3 hours ago, BBBC said: Can I claim that as a success? Not sure but at least its not a loss. Any profit is a success. peanut peanut, Wildgarden, richard-westwood and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 (edited) 830 wolv Unapologetic 9.2 12.0 Some nightmare 8.2 5.0 Flight command 7.9. 13.5 Van dijk 7.7 7.4 Top rated looks good value.....so I'll.play on top 2 ..10pt wins Currently +491.00 Edited May 4, 2021 by richard-westwood vikki37 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 830 wolv Unapologetic 9.2 12.0 Some nightmare 8.2 5.0 Flight command 7.9. 13.5 Van dijk 7.7 7.4 Top rated looks good value.....so I'll.play on top 2 ..10pt wins Currently +491.00 i need one of ur bottom two if my next comes in for thousands im afraid lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 27 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: i need one of ur bottom two if my next comes in for thousands im afraid lol its okay fav messed me up by head. urs can win now! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Stuck in this hole at the moment ....let me out !!! +471.00 Wildgarden and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 445 chest Black friday 9.8 13.5 Lincoln park 8.5 8.2 Silver samurai 8.2 Draw is against top 2 here but 7f is a fair distance to get into a good position so I'll play thexratings and hope for a bit of luck 2x 10pt win Wildgarden and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 445 chest Black friday 9.8 13.5 Lincoln park 8.5 8.2 Silver samurai 8.2 Draw is against top 2 here but 7f is a fair distance to get into a good position so I'll play thexratings and hope for a bit of luck 2x 10pt win got silver! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 19 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 445 chest Black friday 9.8 13.5 Lincoln park 8.5 8.2 Silver samurai 8.2 Draw is against top 2 here but 7f is a fair distance to get into a good position so I'll play thexratings and hope for a bit of luck 2x 10pt win 3rd at 28/1!!!...gutted .....what makes it worse the other 3races I rejected all won too ....doomed +451.00 peanut peanut, Hotspur88, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 37 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 3rd at 28/1!!!...gutted .....what makes it worse the other 3races I rejected all won too ....doomed +451.00 Don't be down on yourself mate. You smashed it early doors so naturally you were going to hit a rough patch. Trust your system and the winners will start flying in again. Have you done any for tomorrow? peanut peanut and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 I havent had time ....just finishing work but there are some good races fri and sat at ascot so I can get stuck into those .....only need 1 or 2 big priced to go in and it all changes.....I'm learning a lot too .....it'll storm it soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Yes, it happens all the time. In the £20 daily challenge I lost £300 in the first month, made £600 in the next year, lost £800 in the next 4 months and have then made £500 since then. Overall I make a loss in 1 month out of 3. I suppose you need a mentality where you don't get too disillusioned when you have a losing run and don't get too confident when you have a winning run. It's taken me many years to develop such a mentality. You have to think for the long term, although as John Maynard Keynes said, "in the long run we are all dead !" LEE-GRAYS, gbettle, Hotspur88 and 3 others 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Chester is one of those tracks I have always struggled at for winners ... Ratings plus bonuses .5 for previous course wins and .5 for low draw (1 to 5). I get the same top 2, over a point clear with and without the bonuses 1345 Makanah 8.8 = 11/2 my book Jabbarockie 7.9 = 6/1 my book Like that both travelled strongly in last races as its difficult to come from the back at Chester. 1pt win each (obv not as rich as @richard-westwood!) With my standard hit and hope I'd probably be on Copper Night due to draw, course form and handicap mark. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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