richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 I'm over the moon with the ratings especially daawy ....I'd just like to win ?????........should have gone ew but hey on another day he would have won .......but it's a good day because I know they dont need messing with now .......all down to luck on the day now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 3 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 350 york Justsnotherbottle 9.7 12/1 Mulzim 9.2 11/1 Copper knight 8.7 11/2 Pendleton 8.7 4/1 WON Count Dorsey 8.3 13/2 Couldn't resist having a go at this classy race ....wide open as youd expect ... but top 2 are overpriced and both are better on soft ground ....interesting race 2 x10pt wins Joint 3rd Rated won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 21 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 455 york sat Northern express 9.1 7/2 Maison de york 8.3 17/2 Darvel 7.8 14/1 Darvel and northern will relish the soft ground...maison not so much so northern and darvel for me ...10pt wins Maison de york wins ......no luck today but ratings performed well ....fight another day black rabbit and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 (edited) Move to final phase .........formula is set ......results are holding......last few races were 2nd rated finished 2nd 16/1 1st rated 2nd 4/1 Joint 2nd rated won 17/2 4th rated 2nd 25/1 2nd rated 2nd 2/1 Top rated 2nd Top rated 4th ew 25/1 2nd rated won 8/1 1 race unplaced top 3 (4th rated won ) So although the winner can come from and frequently does come from the top 4 .....we seem to be edging towards an ew bet on top 2 wouldn't have been far off breaking even ( about -6 ) despite it being a very unlucky day .......had the 1st one won 16/1(2nd) or had daawy won 25/1 (4th)....it could have been much diff ... ....work in progress but it seems it would provide a lot of action with less risk ......might be worth test run ...see how it gets on over coming month ?? Although .....a 1pt straight win on top 2 rated and or joint would have been 19pts out 18.5 in ...-1.0 with multiple near misses so we could argue blindly backing the top 2 like last time is the way to go ???....food for thought .....if that does show a profit we have a much more stable formula this time so it should be able to perform long term this time hopefully ......maybe we are about to come full circle Edited May 22, 2021 by richard-westwood vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Few rules I've noticed .......5f races are a waste of time ....poor start or unlucky in running and the race is over ...too much left to chance .... not sure about 6f yet ...not enough evidence ....yiu have more opportunity to recover from a mistake but ideally 7f to 12f is the best hunting ground ....... Higher class races are far better than say a class 6 .....which makes sense as there is a class rating incorporated... Also .....ground is important so races need to be left as late as possible as ground changes have huge effects on ratings So a few important rules Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 3 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Maison de york wins ......no luck today but ratings performed well ....fight another day think u need to forget ur personal thoughts on the ground its already in ratings. we missed two winners today from thinking too much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Few rules I've noticed .......5f races are a waste of time ....poor start or unlucky in running and the race is over ...too much left to chance .... not sure about 6f yet ...not enough evidence ....yiu have more opportunity to recover from a mistake but ideally 7f to 12f is the best hunting ground ....... Higher class races are far better than say a class 6 .....which makes sense as there is a class rating incorporated... Also .....ground is important so races need to be left as late as possible as ground changes have huge effects on ratings So a few important rules yes ive noticed 5f is like a lottery! york today especially Edited May 22, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: think u need to forget ur personal thoughts on the ground its already in ratings. we missed two winners today from thinking too much That's actually true ....some horses have only form on gf and good but still win on soft if top 2 or 3 rated so yes if it's got a high rating due to passing all the other criteria then it can still win regardless ....I've seen that myself about 4 times ...... Anyway .....its time to open the new gold mine ....last one found a few rich veins then collapsed ???......but weve done our homework so it's time to try again .....or what's the point lol .... Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: That's actually true ....some horses have only form on gf and good but still win on soft if top 2 or 3 rated so yes if it's got a high rating due to passing all the other criteria then it can still win regardless ....I've seen that myself about 4 times ...... Anyway .....its time to open the new gold mine ....last one found a few rich veins then collapsed ???......but weve done our homework so it's time to try again .....or what's the point lol .... im backing top 3 on one ratings system and occasionally covering 4 and its average 100 lsp a month so u are getting the right approach. but that is rating 5-6 a day in terms of how many races. what i put on here on racing chat is sometimes the best from ratings or some jockeys and horse combos i like. mark crehan is now hurting me though lol. Edited May 22, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 can even be top 5 worth backing look at above... (this is 60 lsp over 1 month on one of 3 main systems) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 my winners today... typically dont put em up here lol had another 7 that lost from ratings (backing top 3) and then terrible on mark crehan and saffie for a small loss sadly. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 I'm going to give it a go ........treat it like my own little gold mine business .....no 5f races .....try and choose higher rated races if possible .......and I think I will avoid the massive hcaps ..I'll rate them ...but unless the prices are good I'll try and keep the percentage against lower .....because if you take 8/1 against 20 runners ....its not such a hot bet....but 16/1 would be ok .... Gotta give it a go .....I'll keep meticulous records and see whether ew bets would be safer or better at a later date ...say after a month ....but I'll start with 5pt wins top 2 or 3 if joint rated 2nd etc .......and see where it takes us ......no more mine collapses ??? Zico10, Wildgarden and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 (edited) 14 is pretty strong ill be backing the 3 of course. ive cut the rest (i dotn back favs under 3-1 on ratings so clearly that ones decent too) and two not enough data (3 or four races only ran) so possible dangers but long term trends show both not profitable so happy to dismiss them and go with some outsiders. will be seeing what prices are exchange. may cut one if drifts dramatically ( like going 30-1) Edited May 22, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I'm going to give it a go ........treat it like my own little gold mine business .....no 5f races .....try and choose higher rated races if possible .......and I think I will avoid the massive hcaps ..I'll rate them ...but unless the prices are good I'll try and keep the percentage against lower .....because if you take 8/1 against 20 runners ....its not such a hot bet....but 16/1 would be ok .... Gotta give it a go .....I'll keep meticulous records and see whether ew bets would be safer or better at a later date ...say after a month ....but I'll start with 5pt wins top 2 or 3 if joint rated 2nd etc .......and see where it takes us ......no more mine collapses ??? dont do ew if serious it just impacts more when losing streaks come double the pain! unless its a big price and really worth it like ur 25-1s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: dont do ew if serious it just impacts more when losing streaks come double the pain! unless its a big price and really worth it like ur 25-1s. Time to go all in and go for it .....that's what we are here for ........let's find out if it's got what it takes Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 looking back did have this yday 5f mind u lol Potion 17.0 winner lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 day before picks 6f and one 5f all winners.... best not drop too.many sprints... unless ur really showing a loss on em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 I think with sprints....especially 5f ...all horses pass the dist usually so thexratings are skewed ...6f ...yiu get the odd few who havent ......7f is a specialist dist so is really good ....I'm quite happy to drop 5f .....one slow start out gates and your race is over even if yiurvthe top rated horse ...its just too chaotic and need to get serious Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Tomorrows racing is crap ......cant find anything Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Tomorrows racing is crap ......cant find anything yep even the 255 i did has questions as mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Walker Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21 Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5 Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0 Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0 My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3. Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt Wildgarden and BBBC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Luke Walker said: Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21 Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5 Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0 Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0 My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3. Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt Well done getting stuck in .....keep it going you'll get there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Luke Walker said: Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21 Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5 Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0 Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0 My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3. Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt Interesting you have mustarrid top ....are you relying heavily on course form?? BBBC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Just rating the irish 1000 guineas for a bit of fun on dull day.....not a main bet just trying non hcaps today ....but needs formula adapting ....so experimenting Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Irish 1000 Pretty gorgeous 9.4 Joan of arc 8.5 Fev rover 7.8 Bookies have it priced up bang on ....looks like o brien again Wildgarden and BBBC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 11 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 14 is pretty strong ill be backing the 3 of course. ive cut the rest (i dotn back favs under 3-1 on ratings so clearly that ones decent too) and two not enough data (3 or four races only ran) so possible dangers but long term trends show both not profitable so happy to dismiss them and go with some outsiders. will be seeing what prices are exchange. may cut one if drifts dramatically ( like going 30-1) final picks are vino (had to top up) 21.0 and smokey malone 15.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Luke Walker said: Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21 Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5 Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0 Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0 My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3. Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt i have mustarrid from my non rating picks too. crownthorpe has trends against it up in trip again even though may show as value it isnt imo. qaysar also looks okay to go close. Edited May 23, 2021 by Wildgarden richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: i have mustarrid from my non rating picks too. Me too ... As did Hugh Taylor so the price has been cut. I got 7/1 this morning. After he has tipped it the best price now available is 4/1 @ betfair / paddy power. 5.0 on betfair exchange. Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Rated a few races but only 1 stands out .... 350 curr Aesop 8.0 12/1 In from cold 7.7 14/1 Moirann 7.0 7/1 Dance jupiter 6.9 6/1 Tough race but top 2 are good prices and these are the sort of races we need to be looking for ....big value so although irish I'll take a chance and play Aesop 5pt win 12/1 In from cold 5pt win 17.0 betfair Wildgarden and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 (edited) 17 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 14 is pretty strong ill be backing the 3 of course. ive cut the rest (i dotn back favs under 3-1 on ratings so clearly that ones decent too) and two not enough data (3 or four races only ran) so possible dangers but long term trends show both not profitable so happy to dismiss them and go with some outsiders. will be seeing what prices are exchange. may cut one if drifts dramatically ( like going 30-1) 17 wins that drifted so didnt put lol 45-1 ;-( of course it still counts on my results for the actual system it was my mistake not systems lol Edited May 23, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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