richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Another fact I've realised is .....margin of error .....its an important part of this that's overlooked .....the ratings are a very good guide that's backed up time and time again by how many placed horses ...forecasts etc fall in the top 5 or 6 rated but I think its apparent you cant just blindly rely on the top 1 or 2 .....common sense really ....the horse can be 8 and lose 1pt but if passes all others and then wins its really no surprise .....so margin of error is set at 1 -1.5 pts ....meaning anything within that margin of top rated can realistically win .....so top few need close scrutiny rather than blindly backing .....its common sense really.....live and learn lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Just having a play with thexratings 805 donc tonight Roundhay park 6.0 Dick datchery 5.6 True Mason 5.0 Music society 4.8 Purposely picked a tough race to see whstsxworking .....soft ground seems to favour music society so will be interesting to see if that's the deciding factor .....but jockey bookings aren't included in thexratings yet but roundhay is 0 ....music society is 3 ...other 2 are 11 ....so that boosts dick datchery and true Mason.....they are both off their ground ....so is ground the deciding factor or can the jockey override that factor ...we shall see gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Just having a play with thexratings 805 donc tonight Roundhay park 6.0 Dick datchery 5.6 True Mason 5.0 Music society 4.8 Purposely picked a tough race to see whstsxworking .....soft ground seems to favour music society so will be interesting to see if that's the deciding factor .....but jockey bookings aren't included in thexratings yet but roundhay is 0 ....music society is 3 ...other 2 are 11 ....so that boosts dick datchery and true Mason.....they are both off their ground ....so is ground the deciding factor or can the jockey override that factor ...we shall see tricast without dick. what have u changed! i thought my society had it too lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Just having a play with thexratings 805 donc tonight Roundhay park 6.0 Dick datchery 5.6 True Mason 5.0 Music society 4.8 Purposely picked a tough race to see whstsxworking .....soft ground seems to favour music society so will be interesting to see if that's the deciding factor .....but jockey bookings aren't included in thexratings yet but roundhay is 0 ....music society is 3 ...other 2 are 11 ....so that boosts dick datchery and true Mason.....they are both off their ground ....so is ground the deciding factor or can the jockey override that factor ...we shall see Well well ....roundhay won ...( sids law jockey was 0-37!!)...music society was 2nd ...true mason 3rd ....well ...we are in the ballpark at least ? Wildgarden, gbettle and BBBC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Just having a play with thexratings 805 donc tonight Roundhay park 6.0 Dick datchery 5.6 True Mason 5.0 Music society 4.8 Purposely picked a tough race to see whstsxworking .....soft ground seems to favour music society so will be interesting to see if that's the deciding factor .....but jockey bookings aren't included in thexratings yet but roundhay is 0 ....music society is 3 ...other 2 are 11 ....so that boosts dick datchery and true Mason.....they are both off their ground ....so is ground the deciding factor or can the jockey override that factor ...we shall see Backed Music Society e/w 5/1 for money back and 1pt on Roundhay so thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Barnes1882 said: Backed Music Society e/w 5/1 for money back and 1pt on Roundhay so thank you. I think the bet was the ew on music society .....he had ground advantage ....I actually wrote that on my rating sheet lol gbettle and Hotspur88 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Just now, richard-westwood said: I think the bet was the ew on music society .....he had ground advantage ....I actually wrote that on my rating sheet lol Rating anything else soon Richard? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: tricast without dick. what have u changed! i thought my society had it too lol Still in test mode .....I used 20% last time out pos Age -.5 for 7yo -1.0 8yo+ Distance won 1pt placed 0.5 Going won 1pt placed 0.5 Postmark last time top 2 2pts ...next 2 1.6 .....next 2 1.2 etc Speed last time top 2 2pts ...next 2 1.6 ....etc Although ....that's only 90%....I'm missing a 10 lol .....so room to add or boost one of the sections ?... gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) Only using last time form for now unless the form is diff like a.w ....and the previous run was on turf ....I'll use the turf one in that situation .....for now ....just need a form rating Edited May 15, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Still in test mode .....I used 20% last time out pos Age -.5 for 7yo -1.0 8yo+ Distance won 1pt placed 0.5 Going won 1pt placed 0.5 Postmark last time top 2 2pts ...next 2 1.6 .....next 2 1.2 etc Speed last time top 2 2pts ...next 2 1.6 ....etc Although ....that's only 90%....I'm missing a 10 lol .....so room to add or boost one of the sections ?... draw maybe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Only using last time form for now unless the form is diff like a.w ....and the previous run was on turf ....I'll use the turf one in that situation .....for now ....just need a form rating hoping little india transfers all weather to turf! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said: Rating anything else soon Richard? Cant find anything tbh ...tomorrows racing is poor .....and havent time to rate the 835 ....I'm out of time ? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Cant find anything tbh ...tomorrows racing is poor .....and havent time to rate the 835 ....I'm out of time ? surely ripon worth a go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Actually that class 3 looks interesting after all ......I'll rate it ....see what it throws up ? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 405 ripon Gale force maya 7.2 Restless endeavour 6.6 Lady nectar 6.5 Brazen belle 5.8 Super tough race ......gale force maya won well last time so difficult to assess but a 7lb rise and diff ground has to be a negative ....brazen belle doesnt look as good on turf.... For me its between restless and lady ....I have marginal preference for lady nectar but this is one close race .....I teresting to see what happens .... Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just having a play with thexratings 805 donc tonight Roundhay park 6.0 Dick datchery 5.6 True Mason 5.0 Music society 4.8 Purposely picked a tough race to see whstsxworking .....soft ground seems to favour music society so will be interesting to see if that's the deciding factor .....but jockey bookings aren't included in thexratings yet but roundhay is 0 ....music society is 3 ...other 2 are 11 ....so that boosts dick datchery and true Mason.....they are both off their ground ....so is ground the deciding factor or can the jockey override that factor ...we shall see tried to replicate ur system and i had dick 6.8 assuming u use the going as one out (good to soft is counted as won when ground is soft or good) or do you only look at last year or 6 months for this stat? roundhay is 6.4 Edited May 15, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: tried to replicate ur system and i had dick 6.8 assuming u use the going as one out (good to soft is counted as won when ground is soft or good) or do you only look at last year or 6 months for this stat? I'm being strict at the moment....whole career ....but must be on ground.....yes I suppose you could argue and point on 1 either side but for ease and accuracy I'm being strict .... Scores are low...I just realised I'm 20 % down that's why ....the age stat is more like a bonus score so I think that will need to be moved to add on ...so I'll need to boost by another 20 % .... gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I'm being strict at the moment....whole career ....but must be on ground.....yes I suppose you could argue and point on 1 either side but for ease and accuracy I'm being strict .... Scores are low...I just realised I'm 20 % down that's why ....the age stat is more like a bonus score so I think that will need to be moved to add on ...so I'll need to boost by another 20 % .... altered to all time exact going and distance still get different results with dick the leader, unless u didnt count eye of waters latest speed rating as it was december. post mark - u mean racing post rating lto? Edited May 15, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) adding a few more elements for remaining 20% still cant get away from dick lol but other 3 are 2-3-4. will rate urs tomorrow with the extra 20% see what happens on mine. Edited May 15, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: altered to all time exact going and distance still get different results with dick the leader, unless u didnt count eye of waters latest speed rating as it was december. post mark - u mean racing post rating lto? Couldn't work out what happened then ......I justxrealised if the horse is penalised I knock a few points off both postmark and speed as the ruse in weights tends to knock them down next run ....so that's why it might be slightly diff ....yiu can use the last time blind .....I think adjusting it slightly is closer to reality....if a horse runs 60 rpr and finished 2nd then is raised 4lb I'd rate him as 55 ....rightly or wrongly ......I could be underestimating it hugely as the horses I tested dropped 10 to 15 points from just a 4lb rise so 4points per lb !! ....but some horses can still run well so I just knock a couple off .....likewise if the horse wins really easy adding a couple on wont hurt .... gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Couldn't work out what happened then ......I justxrealised if the horse is penalised I knock a few points off both postmark and speed as the ruse in weights tends to knock them down next run ....so that's why it might be slightly diff ....yiu can use the last time blind .....I think adjusting it slightly is closer to reality....if a horse runs 60 rpr and finished 2nd then is raised 4lb I'd rate him as 55 ....rightly or wrongly ......I could be underestimating it hugely as the horses I tested dropped 10 to 15 points from just a 4lb rise so 4points per lb !! ....but some horses can still run well so I just knock a couple off .....likewise if the horse wins really easy adding a couple on wont hurt .... funny thats the 20% i added on more or less in a similar way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: 405 ripon Gale force maya 7.2 Restless endeavour 6.6 Lady nectar 6.5 Brazen belle 5.8 Super tough race ......gale force maya won well last time so difficult to assess but a 7lb rise and diff ground has to be a negative ....brazen belle doesnt look as good on turf.... For me its between restless and lady ....I have marginal preference for lady nectar but this is one close race .....I teresting to see what happens .... below... similar with 20% filled in. gotta feel gale is a margin ahead now down in trip. Edited May 15, 2021 by Wildgarden richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: funny thats the 20% i added on more or less in a similar way! 20 % is a lot to make up ...that's 2 full points so I've got to think on it and keep an eye on what's having an effect but it'll come I still think I need some sort of hcap rating lol .....its just bugging me how can you tell if the horse is well hcapped or not .....it makes sense on paper but not in practice lol Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: below... similar with 20% filled in. gotta feel gale is a margin ahead now down in trip. It's a real toughy ....but great to test ratings......gale force could a group horse in the making or the combination of completely diff ground and a 7lb rise could just be too much and he will bounce ......if I had to play I think I'd back restless and lady to win ....but I wouldn't be confident by any stretch so it's just a test race Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Well well ....roundhay won ...( sids law jockey was 0-37!!)...music society was 2nd ...true mason 3rd ....well ...we are in the ballpark at least ? jockey also had massive priced horses they rode often from them 37 lol. shes had 30 wins from 184 rides 10-1 or under (16% strike rate) and 42% placed and is most profitable in uphill races for some reason... 26% strike rate mainly beverley and carlisle. does she have some angle there do we know lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 See ......do I add today's adjusted postmark and topspeed...that's weight adjusted and generally very accurate .......that would address the hcap thingy.....I'm not inclined to do a course thing as a know some horses are specialists but if you look at most horses form they are effective at a range of courses so dropping a point doesnt seem fair Jury still out on jockey Wildgarden and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: It's a real toughy ....but great to test ratings......gale force could a group horse in the making or the combination of completely diff ground and a 7lb rise could just be too much and he will bounce ......if I had to play I think I'd back restless and lady to win ....but I wouldn't be confident by any stretch so it's just a test race did u see al aasy today looked amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: See ......do I add today's adjusted postmark and topspeed...that's weight adjusted and generally very accurate .......that would address the hcap thingy.....I'm not inclined to do a course thing as a know some horses are specialists but if you look at most horses form they are effective at a range of courses so dropping a point doesnt seem fair Jury still out on jockey no thoughts on draw bias? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Wildgarden said: jockey also had massive priced horses they rode often from them 37 lol. shes had 30 wins from 184 rides 10-1 or under (16% strike rate) and 42% placed and is most profitable in uphill races for some reason... 26% strike rate mainly beverley and carlisle. does she have some angle there do we know lol. This is why a jockey rating makes sense ....I was toying maybe with 1pt over 10% s.r ....0.5 for 5% ....and nothing for lower.....certain jockeys are brilliant at certain courses ....they know the places to be and when to start your run etc ...that's seems a big factor .....I'm keeping an eye on that one gbettle and Wildgarden 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: no thoughts on draw bias? Trouble is I think it works brill at courses like Beverley and chester but then at other courses its marginal or fluctuates from one rail to the other...just too chaotic Roundhay race today's rating was 188 ....music society 174....true mason 175 .....so that was pretty spot on .......that's todays rpr and speed adjusted one .....that's probably fav at moment but keeping an open mind Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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