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Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9

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Vasek Pospisil to win the ATP Montpellier at 8.00 with bet365

Pospisil has won in straight sets against Bedene and Shapovalov and considering how he has played I think he can win the tournament. In QF he will play against Feliciano or Gasquet. Gasquet has spent 3 months out of the courts and Feliciano never has felt comfortable in this kind of courts (despite his great win against Humbert) so I see Pospisil the favorite to win against any of these players. In SF he will play against Felix Auger/Herbert/Goffin/Bublik. I think he can win against any of these players. Felix is out of form (he lost in the first round of the AO against Gulbis and he also was disappointing in the ATP Cup). Herbert has done nothing remarkable in the last months (on doubles he has won the Nitto Finals and the Paris Masters with Mahut but his results on singles haven’t been good). Goffin is the most dangerous one but as I said I have some doubts about his implication here (Rotterdam and Marseille are more important to him). Bublik is unpredictable. In the other part of the draw Pablo Carreño Busta and Dimitrov are out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monfils losing against Mannarino (he’s unpredictable in this kind of tournaments) so to me the most dangerous player will be the winner of the Krajinovic-Ymer match. I expect this will be Krajinovic so I bet also this one:

Filip Krajinovic to win the ATP Montpellier at 15.00 with bet365
 

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I am looking at the draw Darko.. Definitely like that post.. I feel your getting a bargain on that price.. Auger Aliassime and Goffin and really the only other two I can see winning it. I added percentage estimate for those two upcoming matches i mentioned

Edited by money44

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15 minutes ago, money44 said:

Two monster players upcoming.. Both 195 cm heavy servers.. Gerasimov and Bublik.. I have come to conclusion that I trust Gerasimov more than Bublik this time.. Because I don't like Milojevic again.. He serves really badly, and it's just a player I don't trust going now.. He's better on clay court, and he struggled last year alot with some really clumsy tennis.. If this guy is even close to the real deal right now.. Then I think he's going to atleast qualify for the U.S. open.. 

after all analysis .. I do think Bublik is far more talented, but maybe a dark play on Gerasimov is what is needed for now... we'll see

75% Gerasimov/25% Milojevic

Implied odds +5% value on this match for Gerasimov to win start at 69% chance to win.

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I literally lost so many bets posting on this forum or any forum.. at best I'd be breaking even here.. I don't understand why I post on Gerasimov and the odds move so much for him.. it literally was -170.. 2 hours ago, and now we are sitting @ -189 price for William Hill.. I can't fathom the line movement here.. it's not even a fair price now.

I thought the odds were pretty accurate where they stood before even though i had a play on the match.. I wouldn't have set the line for the public much different

Edited by money44

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Meanwhile Krajinovic is rolling over Ymer.. Why on earth are they setting the odds for Krajinovic @ 15, and Pospisil with odds 8.. That made no sense, and I was thinking that before when Darko posted.. Not sure where you are getting the odds Darko.. But somebody making line mistakes there.. Pospisil is not a higher rated player than Krajinovic on any planet especially earth. 

I hope you got a big bet on Kraj darko because he cruised through that match, and who's gonna stop him now .. Next up is Barrere.. maybe he could be tough.. I'm not sure, and then after that is Monfils, Mannarino, Russuvouri, and Gombos.. All winnable matches and probably he should be rated the favorite in all of those in his path to the finals. 

Edited by money44

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3 hours ago, money44 said:

I am looking at the draw Darko.. Definitely like that post.. I feel your getting a bargain on that price.. Auger Aliassime and Goffin and really the only other two I can see winning it. I added percentage estimate for those two upcoming matches i mentioned

Thanks buddy. Krajinovic has won against Ymer (6-1, 6-1…) and this was one of the most difficult steps of this bet so I’m so relieved. Now he will play against a less dangerous player (in theory) in the QF. The crowd will be with Barrere but the difference between these 2 players is big. In SF he will play against Monfils/Mannarino/Gombos/Ruusuvuori. As I said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Monfils lose against Mannarino. Monfils won in Rotterdam the last year so his mind will be in that tournament. I have confidence in these 2 outrights so let’s see… (a Final between these 2 would be great…)

Im not involved in the Pune tournament but what are you saying looks reasonable. About the Andujar-Ramos match as you said Andujar is a player with usual physical issues but when he’s healthy he can be a potential winner for this kind of small tournaments (and he dominates the h2h, as you said). He has destroyed Horansky in the first round. I will not bet in this match but if I was forced to bet in this one at these odds I think I would bet on Andujar.

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3 minutes ago, money44 said:

I hope you got a big bet on Kraj darko because he cruised through that match, and who's gonna stop him now .. Next up is Barrere.. maybe he could be tough.. I'm not sure, and then after that is Monfils, Mannarino, Russuvouri, and Gombos.. All winnable matches and probably he should be rated the favorite in all of those in his path to the finals. 

 

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it would be a shocker if Barrere won that match .. Also yes: it is shaping up to be a monfils - Krajinovic semi's.  He's got a good serve but so does Krajinovic. 

Mannarino has got chances vs Monfils .. More so than Barrere winning for me.

Edited by money44

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Darko , I'm not gonna be surprised at all if Marcora beats Paire in the PUne tournament also.. Maybe you don't have opinions on Pune.. I was watching Paire at the Australian open, and he was doing ridiculous shots, and lack of motivation to play also.. Its something i might look at in play, but Marcora has a pretty big serve and if Paire is not ready to go physically .. Its game set match for the italian. Paire is just one of those players who will dump matches when you don't think he can lose to a lower rated player like Marcora.

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12 minutes ago, money44 said:

Darko , I'm not gonna be surprised at all if Marcora beats Paire in the PUne tournament also.. Maybe you don't have opinions on Pune.. I was watching Paire at the Australian open, and he was doing ridiculous shots, and lack of motivation to play also.. Its something i might look at in play, but Marcora has a pretty big serve and if Paire is not ready to go physically .. Its game set match for the italian. Paire is just one of those players who will dump matches when you don't think he can lose to a lower rated player like Marcora.

Exactly what I've been thinking myself about Benoit v Roberto. Benoit is not the most trustworthy player outthere and he could easily drop a set here. I know that Benoit usually does pretty well in India so that puts me off a bet on the italian.

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Richard Gasquet to beat Feliciano Lopez at 2.00 with local bookie

Richard owns this matchup by 6-1 and the only win Feli has over Richard is in Eastbourne on grass, the most prefered surface for Feli who is a grass-specialist. Every match in this matchup on hardcourt Richard has won so why wouldn't he win again. Richard seems to be back on track beating Gilles Simon easily in a matchup Richard was 9-1 in. Although Richard had 8-1 before their last match this week Richard was on odds 3.00, big mistake. And it seems like another mistake to put 2.00 on Richard to beat Feli in france in a tournament where Richard can play really good.

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Bublik is doing massive serves right now , and playing some good tennis .. I am watching Gerasimov match, and not impressed with him.. Thankfully I waited for in play, and my book didn't open lines until after I saw he's performing quite badly.. very tempted to bet on Bublik.. I think Darko might have nailed that analysis there.. Goffin looks good but not fantastic.. The match looks 50/50 to me

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They are not offering me an in play line on the Bublik match which is frustrating that I don't have that option.. but now I'm seeing 3.9 on Gerasimov which is a bit silly considering odds prematch.. maybe he will improve in the second set. 

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I may do that four leaf.. I slightly preferred Richard, but I think the match is too close , and I'll wait for something in play maybe.. I don't trust Gasquet for one thing, and I think he can easily lose that match.. I want to get an eye on him first.. 

Also for the record.. I am free-rolling now on Gerasimov as I've leveraged the bet, and risking nothing now. Milojevic has started to play terrible, and Gerasimov is more consistent now.. Probably at this point it only makes sense that Gerasimov will seal the victory.. 

Milojevic looks out of shape in my opinion. 

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I shouldn't have done it probably .. but I leveraged out all of the risk again now on Marcora bet. I think he's going to win the match.. more enjoyable to not lose i guess.. I was tempted to just bet more on Marcora instead but we'll see how it shakes out soon.. 

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 @four-leaf you got some life over there.. Richard with the second set, and now the break... limping to the finish line.. crazy match, and Gombos winning also. Wonder how that one will finish out.. on serve in the second set.. Gombos seems to be playing well enough to close it out. He's good indoor player.

Also good confirmation on Marcora Four leaf.. you were on top of that one also. 

Edited by money44

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

Albert Ramos -130 to beat Andujar - I like the serving advantage, and revenge factor for this match.. I also think Ramos was doing pretty well in Australia, and the loss to Bolt is not very bad. 

As I said I see this as a 50-50 match so the value is on the better priced player (Andujar). He looks healthy so I don't see Ramos better than him. I personally will not bet in this one. I expect to be wrong. Anyway, good luck! 

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