Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9

[CzechPunter]

[OddsPredictor]

Posted in Wrong Place

Edited February 1, 2020 by OddsPredictor

[darko08]

26 minutes ago, OddsPredictor said:

Posted in Wrong Place

Any reasons for these bets?

Arantxa Rus did Final here in 2018. She has won against Ruse (4-6, 6-1, 6-1), Serban (6-1, 6-0) and Friedsam (6-3, 6-4). This last one coming as the underdog. She did well in the AO winning against Linette and did trouble Keys. Rus has a good W/L record on hard indoor courts (better than Vikhlyantseva). I don’t want to sound disrespectful but some reasons for these bets would be good.

[OddsPredictor]

Lots of data see my other posts on systems or visit my website and download my spreadsheet all free.

I will post my predictions for February here as a trial - at the end of the month you can be as disrespectful as you like - assuming I am not in profit.

[darko08]

I won't be disrespectful with you whatever it happens. I never have done it with anyone here. I thought you were using some kind of software but i was not 100% sure and that's why I asked you. 

[CzechPunter]

Hi @OddsPredictor! Some reasoning would be appreciated, if it's only some sort of a system, it'd be a better fit for Glory Hunters.

[OddsPredictor]

yes hence my first line which was an edit that would not let me delete the file.

crikey oh riley this particular forum thread is a really unfriendly place - only some sort of a system - what an insult.

[CzechPunter]

Well, I'm terribly sorry if you're insulted, we're all mostly friendly chaps in here, but we also like to have a chat about stuff, not only percentages, at least when we don't know where they are coming from. 

[Torque]

It's nothing personal @OddsPredictor it's just the way things are done in this thread. I often post tennis picks without reasoning but I don't do it here - as has already been mentioned the place for that is the glory hunt thread. There's quite a few tennis threads there if you care to take a look 

[Torque]

And this is a friendly thread in fairness - the vast majority of the time. Been on here a long time and whilst there's been a few trolls, on the whole people on here are genuine and share tips as well as info so it's a thread that has a good feel to it for me 

[OddsPredictor]

OK but remember you asked.

The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players.

For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;

Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 

Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.

Rating High above which the R Factor is halved

Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled

Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.

Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent

Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.

High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.

Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.

Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.

Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.

Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.

Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected

Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.

The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.

No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.

Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.

 

Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.

 

PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.

 

3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy. 

 

As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by OddsPredictor

[Torque]

Certainly didn't bore me @OddsPredictor and I'm sure I'm not the only one that feels like that. The bottom line though is that for better or worse, this thread requires reasoning. I understand that you aren't able to provide that - beyond that a player is worth backing for reasons of perceived value - and so I'd suggest that you post in the glory hunt thread. Last year a member was doing something similar to you - can't remember the name - and he ended up posting all his picks on the glory hunt thread for a period and also posted on here when there were some additional reasons besides value for his picks.

It's up to you what you do of course, but I'll finish by saying again that this is a friendly thread it's just that it's set up in such a way that straight picks are welcome as long as there are a few words to back them up. Not everyone worships exclusively at the altar of mathematical value and so other reasons for why a bet is being taken are appreciated and can help people to decide whether to follow or not 

[OddsPredictor]

23 hours ago, darko08 said:

Any reasons for these bets?

Arantxa Rus did Final here in 2018. She has won against Ruse (4-6, 6-1, 6-1), Serban (6-1, 6-0) and Friedsam (6-3, 6-4). This last one coming as the underdog. She did well in the AO winning against Linette and did trouble Keys. Rus has a good W/L record on hard indoor courts (better than Vikhlyantseva). I don’t want to sound disrespectful but some reasons for these bets would be good.

As I keep saying I realised I had posted in the wrong thread but could not delete the message or edit the file.

Sorry I interfered with everyone's thoughts but I have to say I see little distinction between the above verbal analysis of a player's results by darko08 and the mathematical analysis of those same results quoted as a player's rating and compared to their opponents rating calculated from their results.

Yes you may be friendly to each other.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, OddsPredictor said:

Yes you may be friendly to each other.

If I'm interpreting that correctly and you're suggesting that users on this thread haven't been friendly towards you - and also that there's some sort of clique here where long-term posters are friendly to each other but not to anyone new, then I'm afraid I don't agree. There's a difference between people being unfriendly and people telling you something you don't want to hear or don't agree with.

[Torque]

To illustrate the point, if I put up a pick with no reasoning then I'm sure I'd be asked for some. We don't discriminate here - or at least I hope we don't 

[CzechPunter]

Right, let's stop this nonsense now . Looks like a very tough set of opening matches, but there are a few picks that I like.

Diego Schwartzman to win ATP Cordoba at 3.50 with Bet365

I haven't had an outright for a smaller tournament for a while, but this looks like a good opportunity to get involved again. It's a home tournament for quite a few players, but Diego stands well above most of them in terms of both form and overall quality, so I think that he's going to have a great chance of building on his solid season start here. He's done very little wrong so far in 2020 and there aren't any other big names in the draw.

Kaichi Uchida to beat Maxime Cressy at 4.10 with Unibet

I simply have to play Uchida at these odds after seeing Cressy play last week. He's a very random player that does have some interesting ideas and shots, but that's entirely capable of losing against literally anyone whenever his volleys start going wrong a bit. Uchida is no world beater and he's likely to lose this more often that not, but 4.10 is ridiculous imo, especially if there's at least a little bit of wind involved - Cressy was completely clueless against Schnur last time out in that type of conditions.

Aleksandar Vukic to beat Noah Rubin at 2.12 with Unibet

Noah Rubin is by far the bigger name of the two, but he's done absolutely nothing recently while Vukic has been improving very steadily in recent times, almost beating Steve Johnson last time out after having some nice wins during the Aussie season. If Rubin wins this then more power to him, but I don't see why he should be the favorite here and I'd have the odds the other way around myself.

[Valentine]

Alot of tournaments starting tomorrow.....kinda glad the Aussie Open is over.... I'll be giving my thoughts on the match ups soon.

Happy new week everyone ?

Edited February 2, 2020 by Valentine
Typing error

[OddsPredictor]

I will say it one more time.

I posted in the wrong thread - immediately edited my post trying to delete it - could not delete the file with my predictions in.

I then got jumped on for giving predictions without verbal justification.

Yes this is an unfriendly thread so much so that I am not only leaving this thread but the whole forum - what a place!

[Larkin22]

Asking for a reasoning is being "jumped on" and "unfriendly". lol what a world.

@CzechPunter i'm going to follow you with Diego outright, but also add in

Garin to win ATP Cordoba at 7 with Betfair

I've seen him play on clay last year and I think he improves year on year, is a fighter as well and can see him going far.

[fizrukas]

Fernando Verdasco to beat Carlos Taberner || 1.44 @ OLYBET 

Well, this is my first bet after not that succesfull AO, but i will comtinue a hard work, like i always do. It's a reminder that you can contact me on a PM in order ro win some money. 

So the first bet of 2020 begins with bet on Verdasco. Despite being 35 yy spaniard was very consistant on hardcourt,  which isnt his best surface,  knowing the fact that he doesnt belong to the top guys, he is still playing some great tennis, he maybe won't beat top players on hard,  but clay court is his surface and i expecting him breeze past his fellow countryman with no problem!  Clay season maybe the last one for Fernando, so expect him to go all the way for these tournaments,  especially playing low ranked players.  GL ? 

[vvararu]

Quote

Yes this is an unfriendly thread so much so that I am not only leaving this thread but the whole forum - what a place!

Drama queen

[CzechPunter]

Vukic dropping, Uchida rising. 1-1 I would take, but I'm obviously somewhat of a pessimist currently, need to get some wins on the board and then start running ?.

[darko08]

Juan Ignacio Londero to beat Marco Cecchinato at 1.66 with bet365

Londero won here in 2019. He’s from Cordoba so the crowd will be with him. Cecchinato comes here after playing the Challenger of Punta del Este where he reached the Final. The Final was yesterday against Thiago Monteiro (6-7, 7-6, 5-7).

[darko08]

Vasek Pospisil to beat Aljaz Bedene at 1.87 with 888

Both players come here after a disappointing AO. Bedene lost in the second round against Gulbis in straight sets after winning against Duckworth in a 5 set match and Pospisil lost in the first round against Karlovic in straight sets. Any of these players are in a good form but Pospisil style fits more with this kind of courts. 

[darko08]

My last 2 bets.

Mikael Ymer (+2,5 Games) to beat Jannik Sinner at 1.88 with 888

I don’t understand why Sinner is priced only at 1.60 against Ymer. I know Sinner won the ATP Next Gen Finals and he won there against Ymer (4-0, 4-2, 4-1) but these are not enough reasons to me. I think Ymer is doing better in this new year. Sinner has only won 1 match in this 2020 (against Purcell in the first round of the AO) while Ymer has won 6 matches. He almost won against Khachanov in the second round of the AO (2-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3, 6-7). Both players play very well on hard indoor courts but I think Sinner is a little bit overrated for this one. As I said, Sinner won against him in the ATP Next Gen Finals in straight sets but Ymer has more experience and is doing better in this new year. I expect a tight match and I think Ymer can win or cover this handicap, at least.

Corentin Moutet to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.72 with 888

The reasons are similar for why I picked Londero against Cecchinato. Monteiro has played 6 matches in the last 5 days (including a 3 hours match against Cecchinato). Both are claycourters but Moutet has spent the last days training in Cordoba while Monteiro was playing in Uruguay so I expect the French young player to win against a tired Monteiro.

[bobix]

6 hours ago, darko08 said:

Juan Ignacio Londero to beat Marco Cecchinato at 1.66 with bet365

Londero won here in 2019. He’s from Cordoba so the crowd will be with him. Cecchinato comes here after playing the Challenger of Punta del Este where he reached the Final. The Final was yesterday against Thiago Monteiro (6-7, 7-6, 5-7).

Agreed. Also worth mentioning that Cecchinato has a title to defend in Buenos Aires next week, he might/should "take a break" after last week CH tournament.

Odds were almost even, 1.83 on both when opening the markets, but obviously it dropped quickly. Not sure if anybody interested, there is a very useful telegram service (a paid one of course) I know about, it sends you a notification instantly after a new event has been added on Bet365 (we know very well, they are the odds reference for many bookies). It can be customized to notify you only about tennis matches. I don't want to spoiler, because I don't want to be banned from the forum  drop me a PM if interested, I will give you the contact.

Edited February 3, 2020 by bobix

[michalbar]

On 2/2/2020 at 6:00 PM, CzechPunter said:

Right, let's stop this nonsense now . Looks like a very tough set of opening matches, but there are a few picks that I like.

Diego Schwartzman to win ATP Cordoba at 3.50 with Bet365

I haven't had an outright for a smaller tournament for a while, but this looks like a good opportunity to get involved again. It's a home tournament for quite a few players, but Diego stands well above most of them in terms of both form and overall quality, so I think that he's going to have a great chance of building on his solid season start here. He's done very little wrong so far in 2020 and there aren't any other big names in the draw.

Kaichi Uchida to beat Maxime Cressy at 4.10 with Unibet

I simply have to play Uchida at these odds after seeing Cressy play last week. He's a very random player that does have some interesting ideas and shots, but that's entirely capable of losing against literally anyone whenever his volleys start going wrong a bit. Uchida is no world beater and he's likely to lose this more often that not, but 4.10 is ridiculous imo, especially if there's at least a little bit of wind involved - Cressy was completely clueless against Schnur last time out in that type of conditions.

Aleksandar Vukic to beat Noah Rubin at 2.12 with Unibet

Noah Rubin is by far the bigger name of the two, but he's done absolutely nothing recently while Vukic has been improving very steadily in recent times, almost beating Steve Johnson last time out after having some nice wins during the Aussie season. If Rubin wins this then more power to him, but I don't see why he should be the favorite here and I'd have the odds the other way around myself.

Nice tip with Vukic mate?

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @michalbar! 

[CzechPunter]

Calum Puttergill (+6.5) to beat Duck Hee Lee at 1.82 with Marathonbet

I was looking at this match as soon as it was announced and I just can't but back Puttergill at what looks like a really huge line to me. He's not a particularly great player, of course, but he's been very good so far in this season, even troubling Steve Johnson in one of his recent matches. He's a home player with a decent serve and the latter part counts for a lot when it comes to lines like these, so I'm happy to back the Aussie not to lose too shamefully.

[four-leaf]

I´m at least not going to leave the forum like hux flux when someone asks me for reasoning...