Announcements
** July Nap's Competition Result : 1st Rainbow, 2nd Trainmad091, 3rd Zidane123, KO Cup Bathtime For Rupert, Most Winners Alastair, Goodwood Comp: Glavintoby**
**July Poker League Result : 1st Craggwood £75, 2nd Like2Fish £45, 3rd Rivrd £30**
CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Valentine said:

@money

It's not in my place to say but I think you make too many bets...

Much love 🤗

thats right .. it isn't your place to say because you offer the forum nothing but negativity.. I think you lost money on info i made, and look to blame someone else, and likely same goes for south african.. cheers ! :ok

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Valentine said:

Just found one pick for tonight...

Alex to win in straight sets 1.70 at my local bookie, sorry not to good with reasons, make my selections based on mostly statistics so if it's ok with the house I'll keep posting whatever pick I fancy here....

 

 

Great analysis champ .. that helps my decision so much.. Thanks for inserting last name of player also , and not giving any opinion.. This is not betting school for elementary kids.. it's tennis forum, and typically you are supposed to give a little bit of reasoning for your own picks or atleast the full name of a player. I'm not your teacher, and certainly don't care to be but its pretty clear you are new type of guy, and need some help with the guidelines here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Come on, guys, stop complaining already 😉. More reasoning would certainly be welcome and appreciated, but the "too many bets" comment looks like borderline acceptable criticism to me. I'm not saying it's right, but I wouldn't claim that it's pure negativity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@money44 you have some good picks but I think its the 5/6 posts in a row discussing the same match which can look a bit scattergun.

It looks like spamming commentary which isn't too helpful, I know its most likely you getting your thoughts onto the thread.

If you are a punter who changes position throughout a match as you watch and analysis I know it makes sense to update your position on here, however the standard approach is to give picks and reasons. If you can justify a position then thats all that matters, others can give counter-positions and people can choose to agree and follow who-ever they think is better reasoned.

TL:DR Keep up the good picks, but maybe try to reduce the consecutive posts. Just my opinion. 👍

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jaume Munar (+4.5 Games) to beat Diego Schwartzman at 1.82 with 888

Schwartzman is the right favorite to win this tournament but I think he will have a hard match for some reasons. Jaume Munar is a good claycourter and he has already played 1 match here. He has won in straight sets against Mayer (6-4, 6-3). Schwartzman is the right favorite but this will be his first match here and I think the odds are too low so I think we can take advantage of it. I expect Munar to put some resistance in this match. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, CSanders22 said:

@money44 you have some good picks but I think its the 5/6 posts in a row discussing the same match which can look a bit scattergun.

It looks like spamming commentary which isn't too helpful, I know its most likely you getting your thoughts onto the thread.

If you are a punter who changes position throughout a match as you watch and analysis I know it makes sense to update your position on here, however the standard approach is to give picks and reasons. If you can justify a position then thats all that matters, others can give counter-positions and people can choose to agree and follow who-ever they think is better reasoned.

TL:DR Keep up the good picks, but maybe try to reduce the consecutive posts. Just my opinion. 👍

 

It's reasonable, but if you can offer more counter positions .. I would appreciate it, and also more positions in general. Part of the problem here is some members have useful information, and they don't post it or even give comments to why it's a bad bet.. I lost massive bet on Sam Stosur couple weeks ago, and nobody made any comment on how they disagreed or anything like that.. 

So if you are one of the good people here.. I would hope that you can be more active with your comments, and not worry about spamming this forum.. We need as much action as possible here for people to read. And I mean that seriously.. Please post atleast one pick for tomorrow.. 

Darko and Czech are great .. but, what happens if three people all post the same player to win which we've done on here before.. It's all about cooperation, and this is a difficult skill to have even for someone who could bet with 100% proficiency.  good luck chap 🖐️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Darko .. you were right about Andujar .. he was playing well, and Ramos not what I wanted from him.. I jumped in to viewing the match in the third set .. so Ramos must have done something good in the first set because I saw nothing.. Ramos somehow fought back 4-4 0-30.. But I decided to stay with the trend of today, and buy all the potential risk, and freeroll with Ramos which probably I would have done had I monitored Albert taking the first set.  I got a decent price on Andujar so I'll make a small profit with Ramos if he wins.. I was shocked to see that Rodionov came back from what would have been a massive price.. I commented this morning about the odds being inflated on the match yet we have some people here complaining I've said too much today.. I do find that a bit hilarious after now seeing the Rodionov result, and realizing that we all could have gotten him at insane odds. 

These are my leans for tomorrow Darko, and I've yet to pull anything on them. 

Pospisil, Goffin, Krajinovic, Gombos - low confidence Montpellier

Ivashka, Berankis, Duckworth, Kwon - Pune

Martin, Garin, Schwartzman - Cordoba

JJ Wolf - Dallas

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, vadastra said:

i'll bet the house on j. wolf.

This feels like a banker bet for those that seem to be interested in the small odds.. I didn't see any of his recent matches but I saw some in earlier tournament this year, and he's playing fabulous with good movement, and all court game.. One of the young usa stars, its hard to not see big things from him.. Gomez does not strike me as an indoor player at all. He barely snuck by in his last match, so one could imagine its going to be extremely difficult vs a higher level opponent. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, money44 said:

Darko .. you were right about Andujar .. he was playing well, and Ramos not what I wanted from him.. I jumped in to viewing the match in the third set .. so Ramos must have done something good in the first set because I saw nothing.. Ramos somehow fought back 4-4 0-30.. But I decided to stay with the trend of today, and buy all the potential risk, and freeroll with Ramos which probably I would have done had I monitored Albert taking the first set.  I got a decent price on Andujar so I'll make a small profit with Ramos if he wins.. I was shocked to see that Rodionov came back from what would have been a massive price.. I commented this morning about the odds being inflated on the match yet we have some people here complaining I've said too much today.. I do find that a bit hilarious after now seeing the Rodionov result, and realizing that we all could have gotten him at insane odds. 

These are my leans for tomorrow Darko, and I've yet to pull anything on them. 

Pospisil, Goffin, Krajinovic, Gombos - low confidence Montpellier

Ivashka, Berankis, Duckworth, Kwon - Pune

Martin, Garin, Schwartzman - Cordoba

JJ Wolf - Dallas

 

Yep. What about Djere? He was impressive the last year... He won in Rio without dropping single set (Thiem, Daniel Taro, Ruud and Felix Auger). He has won easily his first round and he's better player than Londero/Cachin so i can see him facing Diego in the SF..

Edited by darko08

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

seems very possible... I'm staying away from Djere .. I haven't seen his matches in Cordoba, but definitely good clay player. It all depends on what we think about Londero.. I'm watching the match now, and inclined to believe he will win.. 

He can present some tough challenges to Djere, and I think I'd have to pick Londero to win vs Djere but its not really something I'd be betting.. I have reservations about betting Londero right now.. Because I don't have a read on his game at all. Also he's going to be favored to win the match against Djere.. probably something like 1.55 for Londero.. 

After watching the match live.. I feel Cachin has zero chance to win, and there is even some value on Londero with short odds 1/10.

Good parlay bet I think from you Dark.. Londero getting all the support from the crowd, and with a huge advantage in skills also. 

Edited by money44

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for your help on that Vadastra.. @darko08  Londero match is really difficult to predict.. I could use some help with your guys thoughts on the Moutet match in Cordoba.. I really feel that Martin is going to win unless he's hampered by some injury.. Moutet was not impressing me in his last match vs Pella but it seemed like a month ago now that it happened, and that it is a big plus because Moutet needed the rest.. So, that aspect of it scares me, but I think I'm overrating that factor.. 

and yes I think Berankis is gonna win Vs Sugita Vadastra

65% Berankis/35% Sugita - Implied +5% starts @ 59%confidence. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Vadastra you are right.. Berankis is not a trustworthy player.. I have already taken him in a parlay bet for small stake but I'm not risking anything more on Berankis even though I still think he has a chance, but I'm adjusting my prediction to 55/45 for him, and gonna get some sleep .. Cyaz later on.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@money44 I dont know what to expect from the Martin-Moutet match. I think Moutet is the right favorite but maybe Martin is a little bit underrated. I just have checked the h2h and Moutet has won the 2 matches they have played in 2019 (Martin won against him in 2018). Despite this day of rest for Martin if someone has to be tired this will be Martin (he played 4 matches in Punta del Este including a 3 set match against Cecchinato in the SF). He has won his 2 matches here in straights sets (against Coria and Taberner) but both have been tight. I know it was on another surface but Moutet was impressive in Doha. He won there against Sandgren, Raonic, Verdasco and Wawrinka (and he also won against Popyrin and Martin in the qually). This final he reached in Doha (his best career result, by far) can be a turning point for him. After Doha he lost in the first round against Cilic in the AO (nothing strange) but now he has won against Monteiro and Pella in his 2 first matches here (his opponents were more dangerous than the players Martin has faced). As I said, Moutet is the right favorite to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that Moutet is the favorite .. I just don't think it means he's going to win.. Martin is the better clay court player, and I think that can be agreed upon... He's got miles more experience than Moutet, and I think he will actually serve better than Moutet in this match as well.. The biggest problem with this bet and all of Cordoba is there going to serious weather problems going on there .. We've got thunderstorms all the way up until 2 in the afternoon.. Will this make the conditions slower on the clay.. Well I'm not sure about that.. But, I will tell you that Martin is not going to go down easy if the conditions are slow because he hits heavy looping balls, and he should have the advantage in almost every area of tennis this match in my opinion.. Probably Moutet will have the speed edge because he's a first class athlete.. But I don't think he's at 100% .. closer to 85 %, but that still puts him faster than Martin. This is something I'm sitting on with the firing trigger pin in place.  It's either this one comes through or Gombos.. So I might set that play for smaller stake. @darko08 I think that explains it well for you to consider.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Streams are terrible this morning.. I don't have futures options for smaller tournaments right now.. But I would bet with you on Kraj.. What will be interesting if Krajinovic and Monfils both win their matches.. If Monfils plays well .. then he can beat anyone in these conditions but I'll have to assume he'll be tired in the next match if he beats Gombos and prefer Krajinovic as we've discussed... The odds will be so interesting at that point because you know that the bookie is going to favor Monfils to win.. I think they will give him 1.80.  Something of a setup maybe but the odds would be fair again in this situation, but certainly has no determination on whether Monfils will actually win the match or not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, money44 said:

Streams are terrible this morning.. I don't have futures options for smaller tournaments right now.. But I would bet with you on Kraj.. What will be interesting if Krajinovic and Monfils both win their matches.. If Monfils plays well .. then he can beat anyone in these conditions but I'll have to assume he'll be tired in the next match if he beats Gombos and prefer Krajinovic as we've discussed... The odds will be so interesting at that point because you know that the bookie is going to favor Monfils to win.. I think they will give him 1.80.  Something of a setup maybe but the odds would be fair again in this situation, but certainly has no determination on whether Monfils will actually win the match or not. 

yeah, you're right. Well, I still don't see him winning here. He has 500 points to defend in Rotterdam and considering his usual physical issues I can't see him trying to win this tournament (I'm not 100% sure but If he does I think this will be a stupid decision).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Monfils is the type of player who cares about points to defend or rankings.. He's giving his best effort from what I seen in Montpellier.. but his gas tank will run out soon.. He almost hurt himself last match rolling his ankle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it makes sense to me.. But I did watch the match vs Pella, and Argentine was playing terrible.  So if you didn't watch that match.. I think that is key missing ingredient.. but I will tread carefully because last time you proved me wrong SAP with the Cuevas - Simon match. If Berankis loses then I'm going to be even more careful but I have feeling he's coming back.. 

Berankis ball striking is brilliant right now , but the future does not look promising for the Lithuanian.. His fitness level does not look adequate to me.. Surely he might win a few matches in Pune, but what about the rest of the season and his career. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, money44 said:

I don't think Monfils is the type of player who cares about points to defend or rankings.. He's giving his best effort from what I seen in Montpellier.. but his gas tank will run out soon.. He almost hurt himself last match rolling his ankle.

Yeah, he is unpredictable. I also think it will depend on how the next matches will go on. If he knows that he can win the matches without too much suffering he will do but if the match gets hard he could give up and then focus on his next more important tournament. He was not going to play here but he received a WC because there were too many withdrawals. I see this just as a training for him to be prepared for Rotterdam. If I’m wrong and Monfils goes for it and he’s fit he’s a massive favorite. Let's see how his match against Gombos goes... I like the fact that Mannarino took a set from him. The good part of it is that Krajinovic looks good, he has not dropped a single set yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah We'll see how the match goes with Gombos .. Russuvouri was not impressing me in the last match vs Gombos.. I think Gombos was doing regular for himself, but he can't beat an in form Monfils in this surface.. 

Also @vadastra I think we made a good pick on Berankis.. Sugita looks completely cooked, and Berankis level has improved a huge amount now.. The match is booked in my opinion already speaking too soon again.. But now I am inching closer to completing a great parlay.. Probably should have bet a straight wager on Berankis, but as you said he can't be trusted clearly losing the first set easily, and I don't have live betting option on the match right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.