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Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9


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Each to their own, but I never go anywhere near exhibitions. It's hard enough in normal tournament play to gauge things like motivation, and it's even harder to do in exhibition play where the result really doesn't matter. Who knows if a player is using an exhibition to try out a new shot or a new strategy - if I was a player, exhibitions would be where I would take chances with my game and try out new things to see how they work.

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Bagnis/Pella to beat P.Cuevas/Dellien at 1.80 with bet365 None of these players are doubles players but I take the Argentinian pair for some reasons. Bagnis/Pella are friends and they have played

I´m at least not going to leave the forum like hux flux when someone asks me for reasoning...

Alot of tournaments starting tomorrow.....kinda glad the Aussie Open is over.... I'll be giving my thoughts on the match ups soon. Happy new week everyone 🙂

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Andrej Martin to beat Moutet @ 2.6 - I've explained previously Moutet was poor in his match vs Pella.. He looks tired, and not serving well and some other things.. Pella was very bad also, and Moutet had to amount a comeback to win this match.. Pella served very bad from what I saw, and also unforced errors.. I missed first set, but I watched most of the match. . 

70% Martin/30% Moutet - Implied +5% start at 44%. backed with Gombos small

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20 hours ago, darko08 said:

Welcome! Be more specific with that bet. Where you live mate? You can stay at my home if you lose that bet 😂

romania :)  i was at the first game at fed cup (alexandrova-ruse 2-0) in cluj btw. the bet on j.j wolf was yesterday but i'll keep the pick today, with gomez.

p.s: ana bogdan won the first set vs kudermetova, but without simona i don't think we have a chance against the russians

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@money44 Okey, Monfils is going to win against Gombos 2-0 so we will have a Monfils-Krajinovic in the SF. I think he's not playing good but he doesn't need to play good for beating Gombos. I have not seen any kind of physical issue on him, maybe a little bit tired but I'm not sure because he's always acting like he's tired or/and injured so I don't trust him anymore. As you said he will be priced at 1.70-1.80. I think Krajinovic can beat him (obviously I was wrong about Monfils intentions but I think Krajinovic can won, anyway).

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The day  Of rest really helped both players in Cordoba opening match because Moutet is  Playing far better. than I anticipated..  Fortunately so is Martin but the matche is at least anybody's contest in my opinion right now,  But I've still got Martin favored because hes really playing spectacular and I think that the Frenchman's level will drop once he goes into a deficit

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6 hours ago, money44 said:

Andrej Martin to beat Moutet @ 2.6 - I've explained previously Moutet was poor in his match vs Pella.. He looks tired, and not serving well and some other things.. Pella was very bad also, and Moutet had to amount a comeback to win this match.. Pella served very bad from what I saw, and also unforced errors.. I missed first set, but I watched most of the match. . 

70% Martin/30% Moutet - Implied +5% start at 44%. backed with Gombos small

It's' not a disrespectful thing going against you , because I immensely respect your tennis knowledge, and quite a few others here. I didn't believe you made any valid points simply stating that because someone beats Pella.. they should win the next round.. If you had mentioned that you watched the match , then it might be different. Good luck mate , and I hope that I am not spamming too many winners on +dog money for you guys to keep track of.. I know that some of you are slow readers.  And, I'm not talking about you@South_African_Punter.

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Darko got alot of action in France right now .. They are giving Monfils 1.58.. Yeah's its a bit scary that its so low, and Monfils is rolling over all his opponents.. I didnt see any of the match but I did watch Goffin.. I believe he's playing quite well but there is a chance for Pospisil there to make the finals... If Pospisil makes the final vs Monfils for whatever reason.. I think he's got a much better chance than if he has to go up against Krajinovic.. That could be a problem .. or not at all depending on how you wagered your futures... Could be a little slice of heaven. 

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No offense to you Czech.. but this isn't really your concern, and you are encouraging nonsense dramatic behavior in the chat.. something you stated not to like.. I prefer to talk about tennis matches... not converse with random jealous drama queens who offer no tennis information.. leave your ego at the door czech..I want to see which tennis match you are gonna bet tomorrow, and write it down.. because u know I will,  And we are short on contributions right now speaking about tennis.

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@money44 I wasn't even talking about that, I was talking in general. And believe me, I have little to no ego here. You know I like your content quite a bit, just don't overdo it. :ok

Anyway, happy to see that Pospisil is doing well and Diego is now a very decent favorite for the title, so I'm probably just going to cheer on them till the end, hopefully it doesn't come today.

 

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@CzechPunter and other awake punters.. I am deciding between Krajinovic and Duckworth to bet.. Having difficulty making that decision but I'm figuring one of them probably wins.. More tempted with Krajinovic because my gut feeling tells me Darko was right and he wins the tournament.. The Vesely - Berankis match I'm finding a bit difficult to analyze.. I'd like to bet it because its the next match on the card, and I'd like some action but really got no feeling for it.. I know that Berankis played pretty decent last match, and he should have enough gas tank to play atleast the same quality today.. The problem is that Vesely serves so much bigger than Sugita, and I think we all know that Berankis isn't reliable.. Vesely will want to win a match against a lower level opponent like Berankis who he has more talent than. So thats where I'm at right now. 

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@money44 Djere has won against Londero. I said to you that i could see him facing Diego in the SF but i finally did not post the bet (he was at 2.20..). I don't know who has more chances to reach the Final (Krajinovic or Pospisil) but I think both are underrated. Monfils is now priced at 1.60-1.66 (I expected to see him at 1.70 at least so these odds now looks more normal to me). Pospisil serve has not been broke yet and Shapo had 0 BP against him. He is serving really well. Pospisil was at 2.65-2.75 against Shapo so I'm not scared for the odds now in his match against Goffin. 

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I think Krainovic has far better chances.. Shapovalov is in a bit of a low period.. I don't think he's relevant here.. Goffin is playing very well right now.. I didn't tell you, but you may have read i had a parlay going yesterday.. 6 players and 25/1 odds.. all won , but I hedged too much money on the back end of it.. 

I've got 75%Goffin/25% Pospisil -- Krajinovic50%/Monfils 50%

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

@money44 I wasn't even talking about that, I was talking in general. And believe me, I have little to no ego here. You know I like your content quite a bit, just don't overdo it. :ok

Anyway, happy to see that Pospisil is doing well and Diego is now a very decent favorite for the title, so I'm probably just going to cheer on them till the end, hopefully it doesn't come today.

 

Thanks for the pick with Schwartzman. Weirdly he drifted to 4.0 before start of tournament so I got slight better odds. 

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@money44 I watched Goffin against Bublik and I was not impressed at all. Bublik played so much better than him in the second set (he deserved that set and who knows what could have happen in a third set). He had several options to break Goffin serve and Goffin had no options to break Bublik. In the TB Bublik also was dominating Goffin but he wasted a lot of SP and he became crazy in the last SP he had on serve wasting it with an underarm serve. I'm not saying Pospisil has more chances than Krajinovic I'm just saying that both players are underrated. 

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

@money44 I wasn't even talking about that, I was talking in general. And believe me, I have little to no ego here. You know I like your content quite a bit, just don't overdo it. :ok

Anyway, happy to see that Pospisil is doing well and Diego is now a very decent favorite for the title, so I'm probably just going to cheer on them till the end, hopefully it doesn't come today.

 

Yep, hoping for a Diego vs Garin final to guarentee me a decent outcome.

 

Having a small play on M Doi to beat Tormo @ 4.1 on betfair 

Odds seem too high not to have a nibble, Doi wins the only previous h2h and haven't seen anything to say this is a blow out the other way now

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

No reasons at all for those bets? Come on, guys, a bit of culture, I'm starting to struggle 😅😂.

well...while i have a good win rate and i don't like to write much...call it feeling :)
(i'm a former tennis player not a writer)

ps: sorry for koepfer :(

 

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On 2/2/2020 at 7:38 PM, CSanders22 said:

Asking for a reasoning is being "jumped on" and "unfriendly". lol what a world.

@CzechPunter i'm going to follow you with Diego outright, but also add in

Garin to win ATP Cordoba at 7 with Betfair

I've seen him play on clay last year and I think he improves year on year, is a fighter as well and can see him going far.

sport celebration GIF by Tennis TV

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