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Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9


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On 2/3/2020 at 3:24 PM, darko08 said:

 

 

Corentin Moutet to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.72 with 888

The reasons are similar for why I picked Londero against Cecchinato. Monteiro has played 6 matches in the last 5 days (including a 3 hours match against Cecchinato). Both are claycourters but Moutet has spent the last days training in Cordoba while Monteiro was playing in Uruguay so I expect the French young player to win against a tired Monteiro.

I just cannot see how you can justify both tips based on the reasoning that you have provided. Firstly this is just the beginning of the season, so to throw tiredness in as a possible factor why two in-form players should both lose is ludicrous. The point of Cecchinato having a title to defend next week is just speculative and empty. Only Cecchinato knows his plans for next week.

Furthermore if you are a student of the Odds Movement Academy you will know that a very swift move of odds resulting in the unjustified favouritism of a player is a case of what is known in betting circles as “Sharp Money” . I will find it somewhat strange for Moutet and Londero to both win following those generic market moves. So confident of both not winning as a double that I recommend a 10/10 likelihood. However, I will separate them by taking Monteiro to beat Moutet in what I expect to be a decisive victory. He was the original favourite. He is also the better and most in form player.

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Bagnis/Pella to beat P.Cuevas/Dellien at 1.80 with bet365 None of these players are doubles players but I take the Argentinian pair for some reasons. Bagnis/Pella are friends and they have played

I´m at least not going to leave the forum like hux flux when someone asks me for reasoning...

Alot of tournaments starting tomorrow.....kinda glad the Aussie Open is over.... I'll be giving my thoughts on the match ups soon. Happy new week everyone 🙂

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25 minutes ago, freeyourself84 said:

What about Coria? Ok, this guy seems to be a bit suspect because of strange matches in the past. But since his ban, because he didn't send a match fixing inquiry to TIU, he improved quite well. On home ground odds seem value to me.

I'd rather back Cerundolo against Andujar. Good young player on an upward curve against an older player who whilst most comfortable on clay hasn't had a win in ages.

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Bagnis/Pella to beat P.Cuevas/Dellien at 1.80 with bet365

None of these players are doubles players but I take the Argentinian pair for some reasons. Bagnis/Pella are friends and they have played together before (that was long time ago, but they have a W/L record of 7-3). Cuevas/Delien have played only 1 match together (they lost against Chardy/Martin in straight sets in Houston, 1 year ago). Pella is the player with a better Doubles ranking (60) of all of them, by far. As I said, none of these players are doubles players but Bagnis/Pella have played some matches together long time ago and they are playing in their own country, so I expect more implication from them.

@liquidglass Well, Moutet has won in straight sets against Monteiro. Considering that you were 100% sure that one of them (or both) wouldn’t win you can do now an all in for Cecchinato. You can be disagree with my reasons but I don’t like the words you have used (it’s pretty obvious you were trying to be disrespectful with me). I will tell you something. Long time ago I used to write very long posts every time I posted a bet, explaining all the reasons of every single one (the good ones but also the bad ones). Now I write shorter posts for a lot of reasons (English is not my native language and it’s difficult for me, I don’t want to spend a lot of time explaining all the reasons of every single bet I post, etc.). Pospisil, Ymer and Moutet have won (all of them in straight sets) so my conscience is clear (whatever happens with Londero).

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My only bet for tomorrow.

Vasek Pospisil (+2.5 Games) to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.95 with 888

This will be the first match for Shapovalov after his very disappointing AO (he lost 3-1 in the first round against Fucsovics). I think Pospisil is a little bit underrated (or Shapovalov overrated…) so I see value on him. Pospisil style fits a lot with this kind of courts and he has already played 1 match here, against Bedene (6-3, 6-4). I expect a tight match and I think Pospisil can win this (or cover this handicap, at least).

I like Humbert against Feli but the odds are low (1.44) and there is nothing else i like to do a parlay. Humbert won in Auckland beating there at Casper Ruud, Cecchinato, Shapovalov, Isner and Paire (not bad at all...). The W/L record of Feliciano on indoor courts is awful (74-88) while Humbert has a good record (73-44).
 

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7 hours ago, liquidglass said:

I just cannot see how you can justify both tips based on the reasoning that you have provided. Firstly this is just the beginning of the season, so to throw tiredness in as a possible factor why two in-form players should both lose is ludicrous. The point of Cecchinato having a title to defend next week is just speculative and empty. Only Cecchinato knows his plans for next week.

Furthermore if you are a student of the Odds Movement Academy you will know that a very swift move of odds resulting in the unjustified favouritism of a player is a case of what is known in betting circles as “Sharp Money” . I will find it somewhat strange for Moutet and Londero to both win following those generic market moves. So confident of both not winning as a double that I recommend a 10/10 likelihood. However, I will separate them by taking Monteiro to beat Moutet in what I expect to be a decisive victory. He was the original favourite. He is also the better and most in form player.

10/10... 0/4 sets xD next time try to be less arrogant, maybe you'll catch one.

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Yeah, things are rather astonishing, from *4-3 not to cover the handicap.

Prajnesh Gunneswaran to beat Soon Woo Kwon at 2.11 with Pinnacle

It was a somewhat hard and emotional win for the home boy in the first round, but he's going to build on that with confidence and he has a 4-1 record against Kwon, so I'm not sure why this match shouldn't be 50/50 at the very least given that Kwon hasn't even played for a while. Slim value, but Kwon isn't a worthy favorite at the moment imo.

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Filip Krajinovic to beat Mikael Ymer at 1.81 with 888

I would not take this one if it is priced below 1.70 (in bet365 is priced now at 1.66…). Both players play very well on indoor courts but Krajinovic is better player and has more experience (in this surface he won the Paris Masters in 2017 and did Final in the Stockholm Open the last year). Both players have won their first round matches in straight sets (Ymer against Sinner and Krajinovic against Couacaud). Krajinovic the last year here won against Mahut and Goffin in straight sets. He lost in the QF in a very tight match against Berdych (6-7, 7-6, 5-7).

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11 hours ago, darko08 said:

My only bet for tomorrow.

Vasek Pospisil (+2.5 Games) to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.95 with 888

This will be the first match for Shapovalov after his very disappointing AO (he lost 3-1 in the first round against Fucsovics). I think Pospisil is a little bit underrated (or Shapovalov overrated…) so I see value on him. Pospisil style fits a lot with this kind of courts and he has already played 1 match here, against Bedene (6-3, 6-4). I expect a tight match and I think Pospisil can win this (or cover this handicap, at least).

I like Humbert against Feli but the odds are low (1.44) and there is nothing else i like to do a parlay. Humbert won in Auckland beating there at Casper Ruud, Cecchinato, Shapovalov, Isner and Paire (not bad at all...). The W/L record of Feliciano on indoor courts is awful (74-88) while Humbert has a good record (73-44).
 

What do you think of Popyrin (2.01) against Mannarino (1.72) ? I think the odds are the wrong way round, but I'd like to hear your point of view.

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@South_African_Punter Well, Mannarino plays at home but he has no victories in this 2020 and he has never won a match before in this tournament… Popyrin is doing better, for sure. He has won some matches in this 2020 and he reached the third round in the AO playing well (he destroyed Munar). So yeah, maybe the odds are a little bit wrong.

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

If I was forced to bet that match, I'd go for Popyrin as well.

Luckily I didn't bet on that looking at the first set. 😁

Ugo Humbert (-2.5) v Feliciano Lopez @ 1.83

Well @darko08 has basically laid out the reasoning. I'm increasing the odds here by using the game handicap. Although it is likely there will be a TB in this match, this will still cover if there's only one break (assuming Humbert win the TB), which should be possible given Lopez's poor form on indoor hard.

Edited by South_African_Punter
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As I said I liked Umbert to win against Feli so I finally will do a parlay with him and Londero, who has won in straight sets against Cecchinato and now will face an easier opponent in his second round here.

Ugo Humbert (vs Feliciano López) + Juan Ignacio Londero (vs Pedro Cachin) at 1.82 with 888

The reasons why I pick Humbert are already explained in a previous post. Both players are from Córdoba but Londero is in another level and he is the actual champion so I expect an easy win from him. Both players have won their first rounds in straight sets (Londero against Cecchinato and Cachin against Dellien). 

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Sorry for my last bet. Feli played really well and I didn't expect that at all. He always has felt uncomfortable on indoor courts and Humbert came here in a big moment (and playing at home...).

Alexander Bublik to beat David Goffin at 3.60 with 888

We are seeing a lot of upsets in these minor tournaments (as is usual) and I think we can have another one in this match. Bublik with his game can make feel uncomfortable to any player. At the same time, I’m not sure about Goffin implication in this tournament so lets see if we have another surprise in this one.

Juan Ignacio Londero (vs Pedro Cachin) + Laslo Djere (vs Pedro Martinez) at 1.95 with 888

Londero and Djere are so much better than their opponents and I expect both players to win. Londero won the last year here in Córdoba and he has won in straight sets against Cecchinato in his first match. Djere did not play the last year here and he has a lot of points to defend in Brasil (he won the Rio Open and reached the Final in Sao Paulo). This will be his first match on clay this season but the difference between these 2 players is huge and I expect some implication from Djere...

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2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Londero and Djere are so much better than their opponents and I expect both players to win. Londero won the last year here in Córdoba and he has won in straight sets against Cecchinato in his first match. Djere did not play the last year here and he has a lot of points to defend in Brasil (he won the Rio Open and reached the Final in Sao Paulo). This will be his first match on clay this season but the difference between these 2 players is huge and I expect some implication from Djere...

I am not in favor of this bet for reason 1. Djere does not seem to be in form at the moment, and this is his first match on clay this season.. I see this going either way with Martinez.. More importantly.. Pedro Cachin is in form right now and motivated.. Both him and Londero are from Cordoba.. I have seen a bit more support for Londero but it is there for Cachin as well. Cecchinato played terrible in the first match which Londero won there.  And I mean terrible.. not a professional level at all.. Cecchinato is a clay specialist, but maybe he was not adjusted to that surface yet. This win in straight sets holds zero value for me.  I don't think Dellien played alot better vs Cachin , but I he was beaten far easier 6-1, 6-1. I have seen some footage from the Cachin match, and he is serving well, looks fit, and hitting the ball well also. Londero seems to be in ok form as well, but it doesn't warrant risking money on him at the odds at the terrible odds being offereed 1.24. I have the fair betting odds listed as Londero around 1.4. He is the better player and reputation also, but if you factor Cachin's first round win over Dellien.. This line is not accurate, and believe me whether Londero wins or loses.. The bookies will love for you to bank him winning with only a 24% profit, and 100% risk. 🙂

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On 2/4/2020 at 4:27 PM, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, things are rather astonishing, from *4-3 not to cover the handicap.

Prajnesh Gunneswaran to beat Soon Woo Kwon at 2.11 with Pinnacle

It was a somewhat hard and emotional win for the home boy in the first round, but he's going to build on that with confidence and he has a 4-1 record against Kwon, so I'm not sure why this match shouldn't be 50/50 at the very least given that Kwon hasn't even played for a while. Slim value, but Kwon isn't a worthy favorite at the moment imo.

I do think Prajnesh is a live underdog in the India match.. He did fine in his last match, and because the match is in India.. I think we sort of assume he is going to win vs Kwon who has a poor service and far superior baseline game.. Praj holds the h2h advantage of course, but based off what i saw from Kwon in Australia... he's very dangerous player, and if he wants to win this match probably will do so.. I think its very close, and won't be betting on Kwon either.. But, the odds look to be fair and I can't seem to find a ton of value on Prajnesh,. I wish you all the luck in the world in this one because I won't be betting on the match for sure. 

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And definitely Cecchinato is adjusted to the clay conditions.. My only thought is maybe he looked tired after fantastic tournament in Punta Del Este. However if Londero does win , i'm trying to line something up instead and weigh the options of which match has more value. Finding a stream for the Moutet - Pella match, and the winner faces Andrej Martin in quarters Cordoba i think. 

Edited by money44
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Moutet was up 4-1 in the second set... Pella came all the way back to tie it, and then got broken serve... It will be interesting to see if he wins third set vs Moutet... Pella is making alot of poor errors and mistakes.. He missed an overhead some ground shots, and doesn't seem to be serving with much power.. If Pella does take this third set.. I think we might see a very interesting and juicy line with Martin in the next match. 

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I am leaning towards Albert Ramos in the match vs Andujar. Any thoughts guys ? Andujar leads 11-3 in h2h but the last match on clay was won by Ramos, and Andujar last dominated this series in 2015 .. nearly 5 years ago. I would believe Ramos has made some improvements since then, and is still in the prime of his career also going 41-21 on clay last year.. Andujar on the other hand has played alot of tennis last year, and had injury concerns at times.. I believe that Andujar is certainly on the decline of his career but I could be surprised by a resurrection.. However.. even a resurgence in Andujar's career doesn't neccessarily have to come in this difficult matchup vs his countryman seeking revenge for the 11 defeats already suffered. 

This match will be played in the afternoon in Cordoba.. The conditions should be faster than the slower conditions we are seeing last night in the evening Moutet - Pella match.. This could be important for Ramos because he holds the serving advantage in my opinion, and can win some free points on this with big aces. Andujar serve has not impressed me from what i seen recently..

Edited by money44
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On 2/2/2020 at 11:38 AM, CSanders22 said:

Asking for a reasoning is being "jumped on" and "unfriendly". lol what a world.

@CzechPunter i'm going to follow you with Diego outright, but also add in

Garin to win ATP Cordoba at 7 with Betfair

I've seen him play on clay last year and I think he improves year on year, is a fighter as well and can see him going far.

it wouldn't surprise me if Schwartzman took down multiple tournaments in South America this year... Cordoba and Buenos Aires for example... He really didn't do well last year here because I think he was worn down from many competitive hard court matches in 2018.. He does look rejuvenated somewhat, but I have not seen his matches this year.. So I really don't know whats going on with him. Garin is a slow starter to the year from my experience betting with him, and I've mentioned he's a fun player to watch and huge talent. Odds seems to be fair at 7 with him, and if I'm wrong then it's massive value being one of the most talented players in the tournament.

I also think the competition level is rising fast on Atp, and players like Schwartzman need to seize their opportunities to win these tournaments before in my opinion bigger talents with stronger all court games, and bigger serves come into the mix.. For know Schwartzman should hold the advantage on clay over almost all of the mid tier players, but soon enough as you mentioned players like Garin and Dellien etc... plus alot more will be challenging every point from the baseline, and serving far better than Diego is capable of. 

Edited by money44
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10 hours ago, darko08 said:

Alexander Bublik to beat David Goffin at 3.60 with 888

We are seeing a lot of upsets in these minor tournaments (as is usual) and I think we can have another one in this match. Bublik with his game can make feel uncomfortable to any player. At the same time, I’m not sure about Goffin implication in this tournament so lets see if we have another surprise in this one.

 

This on the other hand .. I feel there is some value.. Bublik is no one to be taken lightly especially indodors.. I am considering pulling the trigger on this right now.. Goffin and other belgian players are not fairing well during the moment.. This will also be Goffin's first match indoors, and first match vs Bublik.. Huge opportunity for Bublik to get a massive win for his career against a respected player. 

I've got this rated as 30% Bublik/70 % Goffin

Edited by money44
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Two monster players upcoming.. Both 195 cm heavy servers.. Gerasimov and Bublik.. I have come to conclusion that I trust Gerasimov more than Bublik this time.. Because I don't like Milojevic again.. He serves really badly, and it's just a player I don't trust going now.. He's better on clay court, and he struggled last year alot with some really clumsy tennis.. If this guy is even close to the real deal right now.. Then I think he's going to atleast qualify for the U.S. open.. 

after all analysis .. I do think Bublik is far more talented, but maybe a dark play on Gerasimov is what is needed for now... we'll see

75% Gerasimov/25% Milojevic

Edited by money44
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Vasek Pospisil to win the ATP Montpellier at 8.00 with bet365

Pospisil has won in straight sets against Bedene and Shapovalov and considering how he has played I think he can win the tournament. In QF he will play against Feliciano or Gasquet. Gasquet has spent 3 months out of the courts and Feliciano never has felt comfortable in this kind of courts (despite his great win against Humbert) so I see Pospisil the favorite to win against any of these players. In SF he will play against Felix Auger/Herbert/Goffin/Bublik. I think he can win against any of these players. Felix is out of form (he lost in the first round of the AO against Gulbis and he also was disappointing in the ATP Cup). Herbert has done nothing remarkable in the last months (on doubles he has won the Nitto Finals and the Paris Masters with Mahut but his results on singles haven’t been good). Goffin is the most dangerous one but as I said I have some doubts about his implication here (Rotterdam and Marseille are more important to him). Bublik is unpredictable. In the other part of the draw Pablo Carreño Busta and Dimitrov are out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monfils losing against Mannarino (he’s unpredictable in this kind of tournaments) so to me the most dangerous player will be the winner of the Krajinovic-Ymer match. I expect this will be Krajinovic so I bet also this one:

Filip Krajinovic to win the ATP Montpellier at 15.00 with bet365
 

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