CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

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On 3/6/2019 at 11:51 AM, CzechPunter said:

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.18 with Pinnacle

Similarly to Pera, Townsend is also yet to get going in 2019 and I don't think the slowish conditions are going to suit her that much, as she's one of the worse moving players on the tour. She can compensate for that with power, of course, but Bonaventure is in a good nick at the moment and should follow up her good win over Swiatek with a main draw victory.

I like that too. Going pretty big on Yasline. When she is in form, is capable to do big damage. I think that if she drops 5-6 kg, she will be playing way better.

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Kirsten Flipkens (+1.5 Sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.79 with 888

Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.74 with 888

Jeremy Chardy (-1.5 Sets) to beat Marcos Giron at 2.00 with 888

Sorry for not reasoning the bets (I have no time). I think Genie and Zarina are the right favorites but not at this level. Chardy is better than Giron, by far so i expect him to win in 2 sets

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3 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Kirsten Flipkens (+1.5 Sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.79 with 888

Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.74 with 888

Jeremy Chardy (-1.5 Sets) to beat Marcos Giron at 2.00 with 888

Sorry for not reasoning the bets (I have no time). I think Genie and Zarina are the right favorites but not at this level. Chardy is better than Giron, by far so i expect him to win in 2 sets

Like Flipkens too, odds on her offers good value imo, I expect her to win in 3.

Edited by eros

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Alexei Popyrin to beat Jaume Munar at 1.78 with Unibet

Alexei Popyrin to beat (-1.5 sets) Jaume Munar at 2.85 with Unibet

I like Alexei a lot this season. He one to look out for on hardcourts. Jaume is yet to do any damage in a hardcourt tournament and coming from South American clay will not do him any good. Alexei has played in the qualies and should be well prepared for this and it's highly possible he wins in straight sets again because Jaume is a perfect opponent to beat on a hardcourt in straight sets when you're as good as Alexei on hardcourt.

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4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Wu :ok. Williams losing early on in the meantime, just can't buy a win at the moment :\.

Why didn't you post Tung-Lin Wu as a bet yourself? Did you bet on Tung-Lin yourself? Don't tell me you missed that opportunity?

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Ugo Humbert (-2.0 Games) to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.76 with Marathonbet

Ugo is totally adapted here, 2 matches won in straight sets against Zopp (6-3, 6-1) and Wolf (7-5, 7-5). The last 4 tournaments played by Marterer were on clay (his best surface, by far). Ugo has better record on hard outdoor courts

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Hubert Hurkacz to beat (-1.5 sets) Donald Young at 2.08 with Unibet

Not mutch to say about this bet. Hubert is simply a class above Donald atm and I'd be surprised if Donald nicks a set here. He should be overwhelmed by Huberts superior serving and better ground strokes. After seeing Hubert in Dubai I think he should have enough to win this in straight sets. Hubert comes to IW with the best form of his career and Donald comes to IW after having huge on court problems in his career right now. He's lost to JC Aragone in straight sets recently for example so come on, Hubert isn't gonna lose a set here.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

The odds looked pretty fair to me, so I didn't, well done for having a better opinion than me on that match though. Venus sick and still leading, this isn't fun to watch.

What do you mean the odds looked pretty fair? That's not a reason for not betting on the underdog. It's like as if you avoid following many bets here. If I thought odds looked fair everywhere and not place any bets I would not win mutch. However it's your call not to follow me, @money44 or anyone else here but there's a lot of good bets being posted in this part of the forum from others than you and me.

For example I remember when I posted Jelena Ostapenko to win in straight sets v Mihaela Buzarnescu at odds 3.10 last summer and you didn't bet on it because you thought you had enough bets placed for the week or something. You miss a lot if you don't follow others here. Now Tung-Lin is probably gonna lose in the quarter so opportunities to bet on him is most likely gone now. And he was acctually at 2.35 on Unibet first match and 2.20 second and now 3.73 on Pinnacle. He's been good money!

I don't understand how you can skip so many bets because you think the odds looks fair and not worth betting on. I don't think the odds on Tung-Lin looked fair when he's up on 3.73 to beat an out of form or out of sorts Facundo. Can't say Facundo is out of form because he's been in this form for some seasons now so he probably isn't better. It was ages ago since he won a clay challenger and is only an average clay player on the challenger tour. 

Anyway it's your call not to follow others but sometimes it can be good to let others do the work for you. About your bet on Venus, she couldn't cover her handicap line but won the match and there I didn't like the line at all, looked to risky to bet on that line after I had checked their head-to-head record. You're right, Andrea has been a mess for many years now but obviously she can still do some damage. Please post more bets but feel free to risk some on anything but your own bets because I think it gets so boring otherwise because that's what this forum is about, to help eachother winning money.

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2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Ugo Humbert (-2.0 Games) to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.76 with Marathonbet

Ugo is totally adapted here, 2 matches won in straight sets against Zopp (6-3, 6-1) and Wolf (7-5, 7-5). The last 4 tournaments played by Marterer were on clay (his best surface, by far). Ugo has better record on hard outdoor courts

Max has been a mess ever since he reached the Roland Garros fourth round. He's really gonna drop a lot of ranking points if he continues this way and Ugo is like you say fully adapted to the IW courts now and he should have a good chance of covering the -2.0 line but I think it could be worth taking the risk with a bit higher line so I'm thinking Ugo -3.5 at 2.20 with Unibet

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Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.07 with Unibet

Match starts in about 15min because Jordan Thompson is just about to beat Federico Delbonis and it means Ysaline and Taylor will take the court very soon. I'm completely with Czech on this one and the odds have gone down 0.10 points since yesterday. Taylor should have her hands full in this match. She'll have a lot of balls coming back to her, saw Ysaline play last season in Brisbane and she was gritty like hell and that could work in this match.

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Petra Kvitova to beat Venus Williams at 1.45 with local

This might actually be the very first bet for which I'm quoting a local bookie, but I just want to get something on the match asap after seeing the hilarious performance that Venus produced today. It was an awful match that Petkovic didn't win only because her mental demons are still there, but Kvitova isn't likely to mess around.

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44 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.07 with Unibet

Match starts in about 15min because Jordan Thompson is just about to beat Federico Delbonis and it means Ysaline and Taylor will take the court very soon. I'm completely with Czech on this one and the odds have gone down 0.10 points since yesterday. Taylor should have her hands full in this match. She'll have a lot of balls coming back to her, saw Ysaline play last season in Brisbane and she was gritty like hell and that could work in this match.

I need Bonaventure to complete a parlay @ 29/1. Hope she has the magic 

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YOoo @four-leaf @CzechPunter good job guys on Bonaventure.. needed that one.. She had me very worried early in the match... Townsend twisted an ankle late in the second set... 

YOoo four - are we rocking with Tung-Lin again in Santiago... Monteiro was playing a little better than Bagnis earlier in the tournament but if Monteiro is behind in the match .. his level will drop alot. 

also good job again @ogii55

Edited by money44

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27 minutes ago, Hermes said:

If Opelka overcomes this set trust him to come back on the third.

 

Heh. Had backed Opelka but only woke up in time to watch the end of the 1st set. Watched some of the 2nd set, didn't see Opelka making much progress against Mayer's serve, so hedged the bet by betting on Mayer. I see subsequently that Opelka had 2 BPs later in the set but couldn't take advantage of them.

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Peter Gojowczyk (+3.5 games) to beat Andreas Seppi at 1.83 with Bet365

Both players met last month in Rotterdam and there Seppi won a difficult 3-set victory with 2 games margin. None of them is in good shape right now and i don't see the Seppi as big favourite here. I expect close match and the german will cover this line.

Jaume Munar to beat Alexei Popyrin at 2 with Bet365

OK, Munar just coming from the clay courts in South America and he hasn't success on hardcourts, but on AO he played close match against Fognini, so he can be a dangerous playes on his day. Popyrin's win are against players outside from top 100 and for me he is not favourite here. He lost against Schnur and Garcia-Lopez in New York and against D.King in Delray Beach. Munar are better player from these i can win this game.

Tennys Sandgren to beat Adrian Mannarino at 2.20 with Bet365

Mannarino is far away from his best last months and i cannot trust him to win against nobody. Sandgren also is not in good shape, after he won the tittle in Auckland he has only defeats. Tennys lost in 1st round in every tournament he played after that, but on home soil and against this opponent he definitely can return on winning way.

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Sorry folks, I don't really have the time now to add much reasoning to my picks :( 

Looks like they are already plenty of surprising results in Indian Wells and I can smell a fishy day today as well. Maybe nothing indicates the below upsets, and I might lose easily all of them, but who expected Humbert to lose 2-0 against Marterer, etc... I will give them a try :hope

Back Donald Young (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.79 with MarathonBet

Back Steve Johnson to beat Taylor Fritz at evens with Expekt

Back Bernarda Pera (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Qiang Wang at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Back Stefanie Voegele (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Sloane Stephens at 2.31 with SBOBET

Back Ysaline Bonaventure (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Donna Vekic at 1.99 with Marathonbet

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