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Tennis Tips - February 18 - February 24


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Jennifer Brady 2.10 to win a set v Petra Kvitova (Bet365)

 

Total player games Jennifer Brady over 8.5 games 1.83 (Bet365)

I don't see why Kvitova is such a heavier favourite than she was against Siniakova  (1.22 v 4.30). Brady is in better form in humid conditions in Hua Hin and Dubai and Siniakova is a bit of a mental wreck and is one of the Czech players who Petra has a stangelhold on. Last week I saw Siniakova break down and cry against Bonaventure and she showed too much respect to Petra, even running through so Petra didn't have to wait at the net at changeovers. Not that I am downplaying her match v Siniakova but feel she'll be playing an opponent in Brady with a slightly better mental state than Siniakova and no history of friendship, matches or understanding of.

Watching the Kvitova match, she didn't really enjoy the warm humid/windy conditions yesterday. She will be playing 11am start again in Dubai which is set to be windy and humid again. She looked to be breathing very heavy from the early points and looked to shorten the points early on. Looking at her record in Dubai all her matches have gone 3 sets (albeit her only 3 appearances have come between 2014-2016)

 

 

 

 

 

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I've changed my mind and won't back Evans against Tiafoe, who is defending champion in Delray Beach. Of course, this does not mean he will win this match but should have plenty of motivation to defend his hard-earned points from last year.

Back Radu Albot (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Nick "as*hole" Kyrgios at 1.81 with MarathonBet

Instead, I will pick this Moldavian guy who is apparently playing some nice tennis nowadays and managed to beat Karlovic twice recently. In my opinion, Kyrgios is one, if not the biggest wasted talent in the whole ATP circuit, he often gives sh*t about playing. He really possesses everything to be a top top player, but his intolerable, unprofessional behavior will never let him so. You never know what to expect from him, and taking into account Albot's good form, I think there is value to back the latter for at least a set.

Back Paolo Lorenzi to beat Steve Johnson at 2.45 with Expekt

I was really thinking about backing Jung for a set today, but thanks God I skipped that match in the end. Johnson was/is (?) in really bad shape, but every negative run comes to end, and I had a feeling he might eventually win a match, maybe even in straight sets, and that's exactly what happened. Will he be able to build on this and start a streak? Well, for the moment I don't think so. Lorenzi, who is really not a hard court specialist is playing surprisingly well, beating reputable players on this surface. I'll be honest, I was not able to watch any of his matches recently, but somewhere I read a comment about him looking and moving around the court very motivated and determined, like somebody who is really fighting for something very important. Jung had his chances today against the American, did not take them, thus ended up losing in straight sets. Lorenzi is a different level compared to the guy from Taipei, I see him as favorite in this matchup.

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15 minutes ago, money44 said:

Can someone list all their best underdog chances tomorrow ? just let them flow .. it's a brainstorm , nothing official I'm asking unless u want to ?

These are the ones I noted down for myself are: Hsieh, Riske, Gojowczyk. Also like Brady, but she will start very soon, maybe a live bet for me. BUT this does not mean I will bet on any of them. I already wrote about Lorenzi and Albot.

Edited by bobix
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Back Peter Gojowczyk to beat Gilles Simon at 2.62 with Bet365

I've just noticed that Gojowczyk played final last year at Delray Beach, however this time he opted to participate in Marseille. Not sure what is behind his decision, but the points he is going to lose needs to be earned elsewhere, more than probably right over here.

I cannot repeat enough how dumb I was when laying the German in the first round, moreover calling him an average player, which is something even I don't really think... Anyway, I also make mistakes and harsh statements. This time I am going to back him against Simon, who did not survive the 2nd round here last year. Nobody is getting younger (if so, then please share the recipe with me) and the Frenchman can no longer play his typical ping-pong tennis at the level he did before. His performances so far in 2019 ar far from convincing for me. These two guys met a single time before, 2 years ago in Metz (indoor hard), where the German won in straight sets.

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Back Alison Riske (+4.5 games) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.97 with Unibet

I backed Riske against Goerges in the first round and will continue to ride the wave now. Initially, was going to send out this pick with the +5 handicap line, but odds dropped from 1.74 so I'm moving to +4.5 which could be covered as well if she continues her solid play. Pliskova admitted a few days ago that she was not feeling so well due to being sick. Not sure if already recovered, but she had a difficult match yesterday against Cibulkova so we could have a good chance here.

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Thanks for nothing Diego, at 4-1 even :@.

Su-Wei Hsieh (+1.5 sets) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.70 with Pinnacle

I think that it's quite easy to fancy Hsieh's chances in this one, as Pliskova isn't moving all that well right now and that isn't going to improve overnight if she's a bit sick. She's the much better player of the two when on song and I do see her winning, but she should drop a set much more often than not as her big hitting is bound to misfire for a while at some point.

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Just now, money44 said:

Thanks man , i didn't bet him either today cuz i have future stake already .. was tempted 

What's floorball ? I have some new future ideas for the tournaments in rio and dubai .. i can post them later maybe .. take easy 

Floorball is a sport we are very good at here in Sweden as we invented the sport but Finland is also very good at it and they are our biggets rivals in the World championships. I bet on Floorball sometimes when Swedens ladies and men is playing in the World championships. I most of the time use our local swedish bookie svenskaspel.se. Floorball is a sport played indoors between two teams trying to score goals with a little white plastic ball with 24 holes in it. Very similar to icehockey with equal sized goals with a goalkeeper and 5 players in each team on the floor chasing that white ball. There are colored balls to but those balls are not used except in training like on training with my team we sometimes have a green ball. 

 

Aljaz Bedene to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.62 with Unibet

Picking the better player here. Sorry @money44 for going against your outright pick but I belive Aljaz has a very good chance to reach the final this week.

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Marketa Vondrousova to beat Anna Blinkova at 1.73 with William Hill

I think Vondrousova is the right favorite here. She has win here in the 1st round against Georgina García Pérez (6-0, 7-6) who was in a good form after becoming the hero for Spain in the Fed Cup. Both players are young but I think that Vondrousova has more pontential than Blinkova. She played incredible in the last US Open winning there against Barthel, Bouchard and Kiki Bertens and losing finally against Tsurenko in a 3 set match. After that she put Julia Gorges in troubles in Wuhan (3-6, 6-3, 6-7) and lost in the 2nd round against Martic in the AO after winning against Rodina there. Blinkova has win against Vijliantseva in the 1st round here (3-6, 6-4, 6-4) but she did nothing especially remarkable in the last months except for her wins in Doha against Bernarda Pera, Stosur and Sevastova. I have to remark that I watched her match against Sevastova and I almost sure (like 80%) that Sevastova tanked that match (I remember that she played the whole match doing a lot of strange errors and she didn’t care anything about that when she is a player that gets angry when the matches goes wrong). Vondrousova leads the h2h 2-0 and she has an incredible 38-5 on hard indoor courts (53-22 Blinkova).

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