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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 18 - February 24

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cp . i have no idea why 5dimes has monteiro @ 150-1. Bet365 has him listed @ 50-1.. 5dimes is a special kind of book .. i seen 75/1 - 500/1 future bets win at least 4 different times, and often much more than that if your talking golf smaller tennis stuff and whatever .. its pretty crazy ... but I'll take the extra 100 on young player at home who loves clay courts. 

Edited by money44

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Malek Jaziri (+4.5) to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.87 with 888

The odds for the victory of Delbonis looks ridiculous to me so im gonna try the victory of Jaziri with a games handicap. Jaziri won in the 1st round against Berlocq (6-3, 4-6, 7-6) in Cordoba and lost in his second match there against Cuevas (6-7, 2-6). Then, he lost in Buenos Aires in the 1st round against Ferrer (6-7, 3-6). Delbonis did better in Cordoba, winning there against Mayer (6-4, 6-7, 6-3), Carballés (6-7, 6-2, 6-2), Munar (7-5, 6-4) and was finally destroyed by Londero (1-6, 0-6). Then, he lost in Buenos Aires in the 1st round against Munar (2-6, 6-2, 1-6). Delbonis is the favorite but Jaziri has played decently and I think he can cover this line.

Feliciano López vs Denis Istomin Over 23.5 Games at 1.86 with 888

2 players with a lot of doubts about their current form but with a big serve on a fast court.

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Back Juan Ignacio Londero (-1.5 sets handicap) to beat Elias Ymer at 2.10 with Pinnacle

I have to agree with everyone who already backed Londero today. For some reason, I've completely missed this match until now, and odds already dropped on ML, but I am happy to take the set handicap instead. All I want to add to the previous analyses is the fact Ymer might be also carrying a shoulder injury. The two players' current form in completely opposite. Let's grab this, guys :) 

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4 hours ago, money44 said:

45-94 +26.5 unit 

Book: 5dimes

Lloyd Harris to win Delray Beach @ 67 - 1 unit

Thiago Monteiro to win Rio @ 151 - 1 unit 

Buzarnescu lost. parlay is toast.. dropped a unit on edit 

 

Lloyd isn't going to win Delray Beach. I don't know what motivation you have for that but I don't see it happening. He doesn't have the high level required yet to compete consistently on the ATP tour. He just started to win some challenger tournaments last season and is a very newly baked prospect. I think he'll get there but not yet.

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21 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Lloyd isn't going to win Delray Beach. I don't know what motivation you have for that but I don't see it happening. He doesn't have the high level required yet to compete consistently on the ATP tour. He just started to win some challenger tournaments last season and is a very newly baked prospect. I think he'll get there but not yet.

He has a fantastic draw four leaf .. the only problem on his side is Isner ..I see him as the most talent in the entire field, and it could be a huge breakthrough tournament for him .. he already won an outdoor hard event earlier fairly routine.  Isner looks a little banged up also .. he could take him out for sure 

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And then you have to look at the opponents he had in Launceston, nobody in top 200, not so hard to win fairly routine then. His current level on ATP tour showed in New York last week where he lost in first round to Sam Querrey 7-6 6-2.

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11 minutes ago, money44 said:

He has a fantastic draw four leaf .. the only problem on his side is Isner ..I see him as the most talent in the entire field, and it could be a huge breakthrough tournament for him .. he already won an outdoor hard event earlier fairly routine.  Isner looks a little banged up also .. he could take him out for sure 

Pie-in-the-sky thinking. Harris lost to the big server Querrey just last week, without putting on much of a fight. He might even struggle to win his 1st round encounter.

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52 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Pie-in-the-sky thinking. Harris lost to the big server Querrey just last week, without putting on much of a fight. He might even struggle to win his 1st round encounter.

Harris is not an indoor player my friend .. thats the part your missing .. win or lose .. i like the chance :beer

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

And Frances Tiafoe defending champion in a possible second round doesn't scare you? Or Yoshi Nishioka or Taylor Fritz on the other half of the draw?

are u kidding about Nishioka scaring me LOL ? now you're telling jokes aren't you .. back to your old tricks @ four 

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Ohhh and btw .. just for the record - I do think that Harris can easily lose first round against a tough opponent like darian king ... this could be one of the toughest matches of the tournament if hypotheticlaly he does advance .. match starts in 1 minutes 

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Hello,

Another small in-play tip from me again. Not sure how much profit you can make from it, because the odds fluctuate, but right now they are very much wrong again. Yesterday the ATP Rio Doubles match between Romboli/ Monteiro and Bambrige/ O'Mara started. Bambridge and O'Mara were pretty big favourites, but lost the first set. Score was 1-1 in the second set. Then the match stopped because of rain. When the match stopped, till the match dissappeared from the bookies etc, the odds on the bookies were around 1,8 for Romboli and Monteiro and 1,95 for Bambridge/ O'mara (I checked bet365 and William hill.) On Betfair Romboli and Monteiro were around 1,85-1,87 then. 

Since there are no doubles scheduled for tonight, the match will continue on wednesday and it seems people have no clue what the odds were when the rain started. Because now on Betfair people are backing Romboli and Monteiro in the 1.5x range...So if you lay these odds, you should be able to make some sure profit when the match will start again tomorrow. So as always, it's not a tip about I think who wins, but I do know that right now the odds are way off again because of a rain delay.

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14 hours ago, money44 said:

Ohhh and btw .. just for the record - I do think that Harris can easily lose first round against a tough opponent like darian king ... this could be one of the toughest matches of the tournament if hypotheticlaly he does advance .. match starts in 1 minutes 

I think you're on to something with Lloyd Harris. I've read the article on atpworldtour.com about him and he is getting support from Wayne Ferreira this week. That could make him dangerous. I'm going to back him in his next match. Good luck on the outright bet!

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It just so Happens that I'm jumping on board with your bet for a unit also four-leaf .. seems that you placed something also lol on the reverse as well.. anyways .. I think is slight value. I seen also CP liked your pick .. so you guys both could be right. 

Book: 5dimes

1 unit Pablo Cuevas to win Rio @ 19

 

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50 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Juan Martin Del Potro at 3.25 with Unibet

Remains to be seen what form JMDP is in but i doubt he should come in and run over this tricky japanese player. 

From memory Del Potro is usually sluggish after a long lay-off so there should be a good chance of this coming in -  that said I'm not sure there's any value in the price. Taking a plus would have been my preference as I can see a narrow win for JMDP. Good luck :ok

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Taylor Fritz to beat Mackie Mcdonald at 1.52 with Unibet

I'm gonna keep it simple here and take only the win for Taylor. He just recently defended his challenger title in Newport Beach beating Brayden Schnur in the final in straight sets so he's in good form. He's got 3-0 in this matchup and Mackie has never been close to winning the match and I don't think Mackie is in as good form as Taylor is right now and he's not the better player by any stretch. Match starts in about 20min.

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Didn't expect Mackie to play so good defense in Taylors service games like he did at 5-4 up in second set but he is the better player in the match, no doubt about it. I don't see Taylor breaking back at 5-2 down either in third set since Mackie is playing by far the better tennis of the two since he lost first set. Taylor must have taken the task too lightly after he won first set and it proves costly.

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