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Tennis Tips - February 18 - February 24

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Thiago Seyboth Wild vs. Taro Daniel @2.69 Pinnacle 4/10

Seyboth Wild is a big prospect, should have beaten Giannessi in Cordoba but failed while being a break up in the second and third set. Obviously this is something that can happen at 18, he's young and raw but an elite level prospect.

On the other hand Daniel is a joke. His performance in Buenos Aires last week vs. RBC was absymal. 

Odds on the youngster looking good enough to take.

Edited by opole

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On 2019. 02. 17. at 11:27 PM, bobix said:

Pfff... it is really obvious I did not visit this forum for a long time, I forgot that each week has a new topic :D I am copying over my picks from the other topic.

Back Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Expekt

Jarry is not convincing at all nowadays. He might have won two matches in the Davis Cup, but none of them was easy despite playing against all but reputable clay court opponents. Since then he lost two first-round matches, and I think tomorrow he'll make it three in a row. Carballes, on the other hand, seems to be playing quite OK, recently lost only to Cecchinato in a tight encounter, who ended up winning the tournament in Buenos Aires. I think the odds should be reversed here, so I am more than happy to back the Spanish guy.

Back Alison Riske (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Julia Goerges at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Goerges is a clear favorite here, agreed. These two ladies met this week in Doha, where Julia won in 3 sets. There is a general rule in tennis (applicable to all sports though, I guess), this is something a very good friend of mine told me who was a professional player. It is anything but easy to beat somebody twice who you met recently. This is why I did not agree with many of you when backing Medvedev against Monfils (albeit back then I did not state my opinion here). Riske is very rhapsodic, this match can easily end in two sets, but I hope she will show her better face and fight well.

Other than these I am also looking at Suarez Navarro and Karlovic, maybe I'll make a parlay of 3 set handicaps adding also Carballes.

Back Damir Dzumhur to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.80 with Pinnacle

This match will be played on Tuesday, not tomorrow. Bet365 opened the odds at 1.66 the rest of the bookies at around 1.80 but already started to drop. Dzumhur's season start was awful, but after the Davis Cup he won two matches against good/in-form players like Tsitsipas and Kukushkin, being demolished later by tournament winner Monfils. But this should be enough for him to gather some pace and he will next have a favorable opponent in the form of Gojowczyk. Despite the fact of having some good (but short) periods from time to time, I always rated the German an average player, nothing special. Dzumhur also lead the H2H 2-0, and all of those were indoor hard matches.


Carballes and Riske both won, that's great! On the other hand, if there was a pick I really really deserved to lose is the one with Dzumhur. My friend was totally right, I should show more respect toward players, especially when they sit on the 60th position in the ATP rankings. Shame on me!

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2 minutes ago, money44 said:

good job btw @ bobix .. i must have missed u taking Baena also .. super close at the end.. what do u think of baena - dellien next round ? 

Thank you @money44! Carballes should have finished this match in two sets but was not able to close it at 5-3. At least luck was on our side and he delivered in the end. Tough call his next match, I would rather skip that. I just started looking at the tomorrow card, at first glance I like Evans and Lorenzi, also Albot for set handicap. This is from Delray Beach, still checking the rest.

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Jennifer Brady 2.10 to win a set v Petra Kvitova (Bet365)

 

Total player games Jennifer Brady over 8.5 games 1.83 (Bet365)

I don't see why Kvitova is such a heavier favourite than she was against Siniakova  (1.22 v 4.30). Brady is in better form in humid conditions in Hua Hin and Dubai and Siniakova is a bit of a mental wreck and is one of the Czech players who Petra has a stangelhold on. Last week I saw Siniakova break down and cry against Bonaventure and she showed too much respect to Petra, even running through so Petra didn't have to wait at the net at changeovers. Not that I am downplaying her match v Siniakova but feel she'll be playing an opponent in Brady with a slightly better mental state than Siniakova and no history of friendship, matches or understanding of.

Watching the Kvitova match, she didn't really enjoy the warm humid/windy conditions yesterday. She will be playing 11am start again in Dubai which is set to be windy and humid again. She looked to be breathing very heavy from the early points and looked to shorten the points early on. Looking at her record in Dubai all her matches have gone 3 sets (albeit her only 3 appearances have come between 2014-2016)

 

 

 

 

 

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I've changed my mind and won't back Evans against Tiafoe, who is defending champion in Delray Beach. Of course, this does not mean he will win this match but should have plenty of motivation to defend his hard-earned points from last year.

Back Radu Albot (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Nick "as*hole" Kyrgios at 1.81 with MarathonBet

Instead, I will pick this Moldavian guy who is apparently playing some nice tennis nowadays and managed to beat Karlovic twice recently. In my opinion, Kyrgios is one, if not the biggest wasted talent in the whole ATP circuit, he often gives sh*t about playing. He really possesses everything to be a top top player, but his intolerable, unprofessional behavior will never let him so. You never know what to expect from him, and taking into account Albot's good form, I think there is value to back the latter for at least a set.

Back Paolo Lorenzi to beat Steve Johnson at 2.45 with Expekt

I was really thinking about backing Jung for a set today, but thanks God I skipped that match in the end. Johnson was/is (?) in really bad shape, but every negative run comes to end, and I had a feeling he might eventually win a match, maybe even in straight sets, and that's exactly what happened. Will he be able to build on this and start a streak? Well, for the moment I don't think so. Lorenzi, who is really not a hard court specialist is playing surprisingly well, beating reputable players on this surface. I'll be honest, I was not able to watch any of his matches recently, but somewhere I read a comment about him looking and moving around the court very motivated and determined, like somebody who is really fighting for something very important. Jung had his chances today against the American, did not take them, thus ended up losing in straight sets. Lorenzi is a different level compared to the guy from Taipei, I see him as favorite in this matchup.

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1 minute ago, money44 said:

I don't think i can do it man .. i just lost a really bad in play on chardy .. i might take a look in play at the match , 

@bobix. I don't like those last two plays u posted .. Please be very careful on them 

I do see value in both picks and then will be what will be :) GL! :hope

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I will do my brainstorm list now : 

Bencic , Lacko, Arn, Mladenovic, Muguruza, Olivo, Hsieh, Hurkacz, Gojowczyk, Crepatte, Rublev, Norrie. 

Ty to anyone who reviews, and I will appreciate all feedback regardless of results u mention .. I will still make my own decisions here.. take great care all 

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15 minutes ago, money44 said:

Can someone list all their best underdog chances tomorrow ? just let them flow .. it's a brainstorm , nothing official I'm asking unless u want to ?

These are the ones I noted down for myself are: Hsieh, Riske, Gojowczyk. Also like Brady, but she will start very soon, maybe a live bet for me. BUT this does not mean I will bet on any of them. I already wrote about Lorenzi and Albot.

Edited by bobix

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