Tennis Tips - February 18 - February 24

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.68 with Unibet

Donna Vekic to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.50 with William Hill

Picking these two favourites in Dubai next week, both look to be in good spots at the moment. Ostapenko's woes have been well-documented, but, even then, I think that she should be a bigger fav against Brady, who's nowhere near her class-wise. If she keeps her head at least somewhat in check, like she did last week, she should win. Meanwhile, Jabeur has been very disappointing so far this week and Vekic is becoming a stable top 20 player with surprisingly few letdowns.

[money44]

cp , I like carla suarez to win .. what do u think about that ? especially after muguruza win earlier today 

[CzechPunter]

I'm not sure how Muguruza's win should affect that match. Looks 50/50 to me, CSN has a massive H2H advantage, but she's going down career-wise imo, a bit like Ferrer.

[money44]

true with the ferrer comment .. ohh in my opinion everything matters in betting such as country woman winning in dubai .. can be motivation .. suarez has some results there also .. but these are superstitions that may not matter like you said .. however in this case it feels a little more than that. 

Edited February 17, 2019 by money44

[money44]

bet looks too dangerous for me tho .. i saw strycova in doha .. her form is average .. there is some other spanish women that might be better bet .. so i think i'll go no play on it, or parlay is good instead .. i don't trust carla to win even tho she may

Edited February 17, 2019 by money44

[money44]

Pinnacle

parlay: Suarez navarro, Caroline Garcia, Ostapenko, Buzarnescu, Jabeur

1 unit - odds: 44.76 

[bobix]

Pfff... it is really obvious I did not visit this forum for a long time, I forgot that each week has a new topic  I am copying over my picks from the other topic.

Back Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Expekt

Jarry is not convincing at all nowadays. He might have won two matches in the Davis Cup, but none of them was easy despite playing against all but reputable clay court opponents. Since then he lost two first-round matches, and I think tomorrow he'll make it three in a row. Carballes, on the other hand, seems to be playing quite OK, recently lost only to Cecchinato in a tight encounter, who ended up winning the tournament in Buenos Aires. I think the odds should be reversed here, so I am more than happy to back the Spanish guy.

Back Alison Riske (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Julia Goerges at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Goerges is a clear favorite here, agreed. These two ladies met this week in Doha, where Julia won in 3 sets. There is a general rule in tennis (applicable to all sports though, I guess), this is something a very good friend of mine told me who was a professional player. It is anything but easy to beat somebody twice who you met recently. This is why I did not agree with many of you when backing Medvedev against Monfils (albeit back then I did not state my opinion here). Riske is very rhapsodic, this match can easily end in two sets, but I hope she will show her better face and fight well.

Other than these I am also looking at Suarez Navarro and Karlovic, maybe I'll make a parlay of 3 set handicaps adding also Carballes.

Back Damir Dzumhur to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.80 with Pinnacle

This match will be played on Tuesday, not tomorrow. Bet365 opened the odds at 1.66 the rest of the bookies at around 1.80 but already started to drop. Dzumhur's season start was awful, but after the Davis Cup he won two matches against good/in-form players like Tsitsipas and Kukushkin, being demolished later by tournament winner Monfils. But this should be enough for him to gather some pace and he will next have a favorable opponent in the form of Gojowczyk. Despite the fact of having some good (but short) periods from time to time, I always rated the German an average player, nothing special. Dzumhur also lead the H2H 2-0, and all of those were indoor hard matches.

[four-leaf]

Filip Krajinovic to beat (-2.5) Hubert Hurkacz at 1.81 with Unibet

Have to take advantage of Huberts poor form. Filip is in better form so he should take it by minimum 4-5 games. I don't see Hubert lasting for 2 tie-breaks.

Juan Ignacio Londero to beat (-1.5 sets) Elias Ymer at ? with ?

No booke or odds yet on this one but JIL is completely out of Elias league. No chance for Elias to win this match and he will even lose in two. With the form JIL is in and the head to head from Båstad last season where JIL won 6-1 6-4 this is going to be a letdown for Elias again. And Elias never had it easy on the ATP tour maindraws, from what I can remember he never has reached a quarterfinal and often goes out in first round. He had some problems in qualies last week when he faced Marcelo Arevalo and those problems will just increase this time. 

[four-leaf]

Pablo Cuevas to beat (-1.5 sets) Diego Schwartzman at 3.25 with bet365

Pablo is winning his matches in straight sets right now and has reached one semifinal and one quarter the last two weeks. This match might be a trickier first round for him than previous first rounds but he can still win this in two because he has a very high level of play now and it could work for him again. But this bet is risky because it's acctually a pretty good player on the other side of the net this time that Pablo faces but I think it's possible for Pablo to win in two. He usually comes strong in Rio, has a good record there and should have his chances on Diegos serve and he has beaten Diego in Brazil before although in a decider but he also has beaten Diego in straights 7-6 6-4 in Hamburg 2015. In ATP tour maindraw it's 2-0 Pablo on clay and he could be the better player again. Small stake on this mainbet.

For safety: Pablo Cuevas to win at 1.83 with bet365

[four-leaf]

Pablo Cuevas to win Rio open each way at 17.00 with bet365

Pablo has won Rio open once before and if he knocks out Diego in round 1 he's pretty mutch set for the semifinal since there's only Albert Ramos or Fed Delbonis who really can stop him but none of those two have any form to speak of. In the semi there can only be one of five players I think he could face and it's Fabio Fog, Dusan Lajovic, Max Marterer, Leo Mayer or Jaume Munar and he's had some problems with Leo before but Max he's up 1-0 on and Dusan he beat in AO 2019 3-0 and Jaume he's never faced but should still beat. Fabio is in bad form but might start picking up from somewhere but I think Pablo can beat him this year as he's in better form now. I don't think he will face Marco Cecchinato in the final since he's 0-5 versus Aljaz Bedene and has never taken a set off him. He could face Dominic Thiem in the final though and I expect Dom to reach the final and if Pablo reaches the final it's 50/50 if he faces Dom. And that's my view of a possible winner of Rio open 2019.

[four-leaf]

Aljaz Bedene to beat Marco Cecchinato at 2.32 with Unibet

As mentioned in the previous post it's 5-0 for Aljaz in this matchup and he's outclassed him with 10-0 in sets and only once it's been close with a tie-break. Marco being happy having won the title in Buenos Aires will not have a chance in this match again most likely. I think Marco is satisfied with last week and won't come strong here.

[four-leaf]

Juan Ignacio Londero to beat (-1.5 sets) Elias Ymer at 2.25 with bet365

So the odds are up and it's decent, Juan at 2.25 for his straight sets win. There's probably better somewhere.

[hattrick90]

Feliciano Lopez @ 2.20 to win over Denis Istomin - TAB
F. Lopez having beaten Istomin the last 3 previous meetings - although we haven't seen a glimpse of his form this can be a nice addition to your multi and boost up the odds if things go well

Tomic @ 2.50 to win over Seppi 
Although Tomic's form isn't as good as his best - he is still a force to reckon with having beaten Seppi in previous encounters watch out for this dark horse

[money44]

Cuevas Disappointing in Buenos Aires be careful with that one four leaf

[KennyDelight]

As much as I think Ostapenko is normally a class above Brady, today could be more challenging. Ostapenko's serving will be under much scrutiny against a big hitter and the challenging wind conditions in Dubai.

Brady has 2 matches under her belt this year in Dubai conditions, both straight sets. Ostapenko's record in Dubai is 2 times losing her first match of the tournament (Wang, Vesnina) and 1 time losing in second qualifying round (Mattek-Sands)

 

[CzechPunter]

Hi, welcome, and good luck @hattrick90!

@money44 That said, Schwartzman was arguably even more disappointing, the match against Thiem was a total mugfest in which neither player was good and he completely imploded in the finals, drawing absolutely nothing from the home conditions. A strange performance, really, he might be carrying an injury or something.

@KennyDelight You might be right there, perhaps I was too optimistic. Shame about Vekic even, she was better in the second set and I guess that she would've won the third, but it was not to be.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, money44 said:

Cuevas Disappointing in Buenos Aires be careful with that one four leaf

Why would I be careful with that one? Pablo had never reached Buenos Aires semis anyway and he wasn't disapointing, his best result there was quarterfinal once and now he's reached quarterfinal twice there. He still has a 2-0 record on clay over Diego so I don't think Diego will beat him and there's nothing to worry about.

[bobix]

33 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@money44 That said, Schwartzman was arguably even more disappointing, the match against Thiem was a total mugfest in which neither player was good and he completely imploded in the finals, drawing absolutely nothing from the home conditions. A strange performance, really, he might be carrying an injury or something.

1

Let's not forget, that he also lost the doubles final (along Thiem) later that day VERY VERY easy (6-1 6-1)

[CzechPunter]

Pablo Cuevas to beat Diego Schwartzman at 1.83 with Bet365

I am so off the mark in Dubai by the looks of things that I should step back from that event and look somewhere else I guess. Now - Schwartzman is one of my favourite players and I have nothing but respect for him, but he really did look very poor yesterday and I'm not convinced that he's going to get enough time to fully rest and recover in order to be ready for this. His tenacity could get him through somehow, as Cuevas isn't the player he's once been anymore, but, at 1.83, I think the value lies with the man from Uruguay.

[WinningTipster]

1 pick for ATP Rio De Janeiro

LONDERO-2 GAMES OVER YMER @ 1.58 pinnacle
Londero is in a very good form winning a tournament 2 weeks ago playing very solid tennis. Always good results for him on South American clay.

 

[money44]

thats a good point you guys made on Schwartzman .. If forced to bet then I would have to take Cuevas at this point .. You guys convinced me .. don't like the match anyways tho. 

[money44]

cp @CzechPunter do u have opinion on the garcia wta match ?

[money44]

45-94 +26.5 unit 

Book: 5dimes

Lloyd Harris to win Delray Beach @ 67 - 1 unit

Thiago Monteiro to win Rio @ 151 - 1 unit 

Buzarnescu lost. parlay is toast.. dropped a unit on edit 

 

Edited February 18, 2019 by money44

[CzechPunter]

It depends on which Garcia is going to play, the Fed Cup one or the regular one . I only know that she was so awful in Hua Hin that I don't know how she beat Mertens.

[money44]

cp . i have no idea why 5dimes has monteiro @ 150-1. Bet365 has him listed @ 50-1.. 5dimes is a special kind of book .. i seen 75/1 - 500/1 future bets win at least 4 different times, and often much more than that if your talking golf smaller tennis stuff and whatever .. its pretty crazy ... but I'll take the extra 100 on young player at home who loves clay courts. 

Edited February 18, 2019 by money44

[money44]

Book: Heritage

Parlay: Roberto Carballes Baena +120 + Caroline Garcia +110

Odds for completion: +362 (4.62) risking 8 units 

Book: Pinnacle

Single wager: Kristina Mladenovic to beat Naomi Osaka @ odds 6.85 risking 4 units

 

[darko08]

Malek Jaziri (+4.5) to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.87 with 888

The odds for the victory of Delbonis looks ridiculous to me so im gonna try the victory of Jaziri with a games handicap. Jaziri won in the 1st round against Berlocq (6-3, 4-6, 7-6) in Cordoba and lost in his second match there against Cuevas (6-7, 2-6). Then, he lost in Buenos Aires in the 1st round against Ferrer (6-7, 3-6). Delbonis did better in Cordoba, winning there against Mayer (6-4, 6-7, 6-3), Carballés (6-7, 6-2, 6-2), Munar (7-5, 6-4) and was finally destroyed by Londero (1-6, 0-6). Then, he lost in Buenos Aires in the 1st round against Munar (2-6, 6-2, 1-6). Delbonis is the favorite but Jaziri has played decently and I think he can cover this line.

Feliciano López vs Denis Istomin Over 23.5 Games at 1.86 with 888

2 players with a lot of doubts about their current form but with a big serve on a fast court.

[bobix]

Back Juan Ignacio Londero (-1.5 sets handicap) to beat Elias Ymer at 2.10 with Pinnacle

I have to agree with everyone who already backed Londero today. For some reason, I've completely missed this match until now, and odds already dropped on ML, but I am happy to take the set handicap instead. All I want to add to the previous analyses is the fact Ymer might be also carrying a shoulder injury. The two players' current form in completely opposite. Let's grab this, guys  

[four-leaf]

4 hours ago, money44 said:

45-94 +26.5 unit 

Book: 5dimes

Lloyd Harris to win Delray Beach @ 67 - 1 unit

Thiago Monteiro to win Rio @ 151 - 1 unit 

Buzarnescu lost. parlay is toast.. dropped a unit on edit 

 

Lloyd isn't going to win Delray Beach. I don't know what motivation you have for that but I don't see it happening. He doesn't have the high level required yet to compete consistently on the ATP tour. He just started to win some challenger tournaments last season and is a very newly baked prospect. I think he'll get there but not yet.