Sir Puntalot

@The Equaliser  - That's fine as long as @BillyHills authorizes the thread.
No more copy paste from other sites with links.

@delfino You're getting one warning, use it or lose it.

Stegosaurus banned - trolling. Previously banned also.

Cheers, was just about to do that myself! 
On another note, if the tennis association is fair, they should default Djokovic for all his antics today. So pathetic - and he's supposed to be the number one. Leaving the court without an official umpire call is one thing, leaving the stadium is something else entirely.
Edit: Apparently I'm not alone thinking this, most of the commentators I've heard think that it was ridiculous to suspend the play for the day so early. Really hoping Thiem copes with the situations and wins for fairness sake.

Stegosaurus banned - trolling. Previously banned also.

Stegosaurus banned - trolling. Previously banned also.

Subjective would be an understatement @MattA147 - it's more about the horse than the jockey in my experience, the jockey is there to deliver trainers instructions.  

So that is it for the season. The incredible strike-rate that I had until about mid April was never going to be kept up and from when I last updated the total on April 14th there was only a very small profit although I must admit I thought it was going to be a loss so I was pleasantly surprised by that fact. The final totals are below and again they are only rough because I know people will have got different prices and some might have BOG and some might not although admittedly BOG isn't something that needs to come into play that often. As I said at the beginning of the season my Hunter Chase stuff is not just about the tips it is about educating people and trying to enhance interest in a part of the sport that a lot know very little about. I also write the previews so people can use what I say as they see fit and I know people have won money by doing different bets to what I have put up based on what I have said.
It has been a really enjoyable season and that 3 month spell at the start of the season was something I have never experienced before as almost everything I put up won and when I was in Australia I didn't have a losing race. As good as Hazel Hill was at Cheltenham my performance of the season has to be Risk A Fine's win at Stratford back in April. The way he broke Arthur's Secrets heart and then ended up putting Master Baker under so much pressure he bled was some achievement given how good those two horses are. Friday's performance wasn't far behind either. Obviously Road To Rome's 4 timer deserves a mention and his win in the Walrus at Haydock was a sight to behold. It was also great to see Caid Du Berlais bounce back from his Cheltenham effort to win at Punchestown for the 2nd year running when nothing could get anywhere near him.
So thank you everyone who has read, shared or liked my previews this season and I am pleased to say that my previews will be on Punters Lounge again in 2020. I will be popping up before then though as I am sure horses that have been running in points and Hunter Chases this season will be running under rules over the summer and there have been plenty of winners over the years so keep an eye out for those.
2019 stats
Total Stakes 204pts
Total Returns 278.09pts
Total profit 74.09pts

Plenty of big priced favourites over the year here. I'm going to take Cantlay first up. T4 here last year and improving with every tournament. Looks a real good shout this week. Next up I'll take Kuchar. Another guy who has produced the goods here in the past with a T4 two years running in 2016 and 2017.
I'll also take Kuchar. A guy who has done well here in the past and is still right up there in the stats. Finau and Furyk are more for their result last week. Furyk I've been waiting for a decent result before backing him and the price here is just far too big with 8 places being paid.
Finally, I'll take Grillo and An here. An has a brilliant record here of being runner up last year, T25 in 2017 and T11 the previous year so obviously this is a course he likes and he will want a good showing.
2pts E/W P.Cantlay 16/1 boylesports (paying 8 places)
1.5pts E/W M.Kuchar 18/1 boylesports (paying 8 places)
1pt E/W T.Finau 20/1 boylesports (paying 8 places)
0.5pts E/W E.Grillo 70/1 paddypower (paying 8 places)
0.5pts E/W J.Furyk 80/1 paddypower (paying 8 places)
0.5pts E/W B.An 80/1 paddypower (paying 8 places)

to Punters Lounge @Wekkey   

I have SA on other bets otherwise I would see SA as value here. I fancy Amla to be top batsman and for England i think Stokes or Buttler as I can see a couple getting caught by in my eyes the best bowling team in this event. There is more talent in this SA team then people think.
Are you sure Makram is playing? I think they'll side with Van Der Dussen. I expect a decent match here. Phehlukwayo could be the wildcard today.
2pts J.Buttler top england batsman 11/2 bet365
2pts Amla top SA batsman 4/1 bet365
1pt Stokes top england batsman 9/1 bet365

3:45 Saturday
INVESTEC "DASH" HANDICAP (Class 2) (3yo+) Winner £61,590 38 runners 5f Good   Previous Winners   Trends
8/10 Aged 7 or lower
8/10 ran this season
8/10 started double figure odds
7/10 drawn 9 or above
7/10 Rated below 104
7/10 carried less than 9st 6lbs
15/22 not placed in first 3 last time
18/22 ran at least twice this season
21/22 won at 5f before  

Trends
8/10 Aged 7 or lower
We lose Caspian Prince, Muthmir, Line Of Reason, Duke Of Frirenze, Boom The Groom

8/10 started double figure odds
7/10 drawn 9 or above
We lose Stake Acclaim, Ornate, Blue De Vega, Fool For You, Mokaatil, Just That Lord

15/22 not placed in first 3 last time
We lose Copper Knight, Recon Mission, Hathiq, Dark Shot, Dashas

18/22 ran at least twice this season
We lose Just Glamorous
0/10 ridden by a claimer
We lose Eeh Bah Gum,
Selections
1pt EW Orpen Wide 22/1 Coral
1pt EW  Harome 25/1 bet365
 

to Punters Lounge @Hit 1st, Fell 2nd   

Great first post, changed title slightly to be consistent with our normal daily threads.  

Huge thank you to Billy and others involved.
It was fun and "educational" reading, well spent time, so I am looking forward to next season...
GL to all.
 

Happy to agree with the consensus.   As with everything, tweaking is never a bad thing so if it needs it, then tweak away.  

OK, so this gets started this morning, hence the late night looking at it. There are plenty of odds slashed and all the value squeezed out which puts me off the players i liked initially. I like Paul Davison again in Event 2 but he is now 10/1 which is probably just about the right price. Wu Yize JUST about gets my tip at 16s. Looked good in defeat. My 50/1 from Event 1 ZePeng impressed and he's gone from 50/1 to 12/1 which stinks and kills all value. Anyway here is my list of value picks that have a chance for tomorrow onward. 10pts staked like last time.
2pts W.Yize to qualify 16/1 bet365
1.5pts S.O'Sullivan to qualify 22/1 bet365
1.5pts H.Akbar to qualify 25/1 ladbrokes
1pt Mingqi to qualify 28/1 bet365
1pt C.Totten to qualify 40/1 bet365
1pt B.Hancorn to qualify 50/1 bet365
1pt Baranowski to qualify 80/1 betfair
0.5pts B.Hall to qualify 175/1 bet365
0.5pts McCardle to qualify 200/1 paddypower
 

This could have been a hell of a result. In the semi-finals, had 4 all going in to 4 semi-finals. Akbar managed to lose to a child and then 3 finalists, 50/1 Zepeng 2-0 up, loses 4-2. Hugil loses 4-3 to a respotted black but thankfully one did see it through in Vahedi, a nice 25/1 winner.
I'll take a look tonight on the 2nd event.

This gets start on Saturday. There are 3 events and 4 go through in each event. Looking through the like of Duffy, Hull, and Ross Muir all look likely to prevail, however I don't want to be taking 3/1 or 4/1 for a player to win 4 games+. So I'm going to look for the bigger prices here at very small stakes to try and get one of the suprise packages.
I've mainly gone for players who have "been there and done it" with a few younger guys in there. Mainly though, you tend to find at the latter stages the youngsters bottle it abit. So remember 3 qualify, not just one.

2pts A.Hugil to qualify for Event 1 9/1 ladbrokes
1pt S.Vahedi to qualify for Event 1 25/1 ladbrokes
1pt P.Davison to qualify for Event 1 16/1  ladbrokes
1pt C.Totten to qualify for Event 1 30/1 paddypower
1pt H.Akbar to qualify for Event 1 25/1 ladbrokes
0.5pts W.Yize to qualify for Event 1 20/1 ladbrokes
0.5pts W.Zepeng to qualify for Event 1 50/1 paddypower
0.5pts B.Cini to qualigy for Event 1 50/1 ladbrokes
0.25pts A.Hill to qualify for Event 1 66/1 ladbrokes
0.25pts B.Hall to qualify for Event 1 150/1 paddypower

to Punters Lounge @BigLarry   

After reading the VDW thread I thought I'd check out another system from decades ago when I first got interested in racing. Basically just a Points system based on last 2 form figures, C, D and CD wins
Last 2 runs
1 = 5 pts
2 = 3 pts
3 = 2 pts
Bonus points
C = 1 pt
D = 1 pt
CD = 3 pts
The problem with the system once you got to know a bit more about the sport was that it took no account of class. For example a horse that had won two Sellers and one had been over 12 furlongs at Epsom would be top rated for the Derby ahead of a horse that had won The Racing Post Trophy and Guineas as it's last two runs. Obviously ridiculous.
But once you start looking behind the points and assessing class and going and all the other variables that don't show up in a pure points system you might as well forget it and just study the race as you normally do. The purpose of a points system (or any system) is to take the subjective element out and throw up random selections that have some logic behind them 
So anyway I had a brainwave ...…… 
If you stick to the lowest class of handicap then the form figures and bonus points will almost certainly have been earned in that class or higher ……. you can't have horses with points earned in lower classes of race because there aren't any (they could be Sellers but they're usually on a par with class 6). 
So I thought I'd stick to Class 6 Handicaps on the Flat and Class 5 over Jumps.
Top two rated (in one of the races today there is joint 2nd rated)
 
Here's today's selections ……...
Tues 14/05
Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3
Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB), Aristocracy 5
Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4, Boycie 4
Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5, Avonmore 4
Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5, Babytaggle 5
 
Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest

to Punters Lounge @dazmaul   

I'll let the more informed racing guys comment on this.  

First Hunter Chase of the week comes up at Southwell and David Maxwell will be looking to increase his lead in the leading Hunter Chase jockey title. This time he rides Ballotin who looks the most likely winner. He was the only horse to give Road To Rome a race in the Walrus at Haydock and paid for that when ending up finishing 4th. He then went to Leicester over a trip that was a bit short of the ideal, but it didn't matter and he won easily over 2m. He beat Double Ross that day who then went and won at Chepstow. After that he was trying to give Arthur's Secret a race at Ludlow but came down at the 4th last. It was a pretty nasty fall and he was lame afterwards which is probably why he has been missing since. I know some people actually thought he was still in with a chance of winning and although I disagree with them it was still a top effort especially in the context of this race.
  Shimla Dawn somehow went off favourite for this race last year, but could only finish 5th to Galway Jack. I didn't fancy him at all that day because he wasn't going to get an easy lead and he could never get to the front. Compare that to Musselburgh when I did put him up and he got an easy lead and never saw another rival and won by 15L. He ruined any chance at Aintree when making a mistake at the first and then slithered on landing. He should get an easy lead here although I imagine Maxwell will keep him very close.   Hurricane Vic and Martha's Benefit don't make much appeal so Dark Mahler is the only other possible winner. Dark Mahler and Shimla Dawn made their reappearances in the same race at Sheriff Hutton in January and the former finished a well beaten 5th with the latter pulling up. I wouldn't read too much that though as they have both improved for that run with Dark Mahler landing a hat-trick. The problem is I am not sure the form is overly strong. Granted he won by 25L earlier in the month and the horse he beat won on Sunday, but that one won in a very slow time and was 1/2. The drop in trip shouldn't be a concern and it should be a truly run race to help on that front.   Ballotin should win this and he is the right price for me. I think Shimla Dawn is the most likely to finish 2nd as I can see him making a bold bid from the front before Maxwell picks him up in the straight. It seems sensible to cover on Dark Mahler to come 2nd as well though given he is the only other one with a chance for me to finish 2nd.   Ballotin to beat Shimla Dawn 1.5pts f/c Ballotin to beat Dark Mahler 0.5pts f/c

Villa never really got going in the 1st leg but I'll probably risk them again at 7/4, as I just think they have way more talent and Gayle will be a big loss.

Sport Recife vs Figueirense
Each of these teams has drawn twice in the opening two rounds. Both have exhibited a lack of rhythm (still missing key starters) and lack of physical conditioning to maintain intensity during matches.
The home team has greater competition in the defensive sector and, unsurprisingly, has so far displayed a consistent defensive system (defending and playing the ball out of defence).  But the team comes from a 1-1 draw away to Bragantino; during which they conceded a 5th minute goal, had to pull a goal back and eventually weathered opposition pressure to preserve the draw after suffering a red card in the72nd minute.
The visitors have had a rather mediocre 2019 and come into this match having gone 7 games without winning. The team had been struggling to score in recent matches but displayed offensive reaction in the last round, coming from behind twice for  a 2-2 draw at home to Sao Bento. The reason was the debut of newly-signed experienced striker Rafael Marquez who was mainly deployed as a play-maker. Marquez also played for the  hosts last year, but performed rather poorly there.
Both teams facing pressure to secure their first win. Host-Coach Guto Fereira clearly seeks more defensive evolution but is under pressure to attack and win at home. Visiting Coach Hemerson Maria, amidst turbulence off-pitch (financial problems and club restructuring), approaches  this away game knowing his team has lesser quality but is counting on greater intensity, quick  transitions and better attacking efficiency. BTTS