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StevieDay1983

2019 Cricket World Cup

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The 2019 World Cup is set to start at the end of this month so there's no better opportunity to look at the ante post betting ahead of the tournament. Here are the pre-tournament odds so take a look and give us your thoughts on who will win. :ok

@Fader, @neilovan, @Ocerradus, @aussietennisexpert, @NoFear, @owenclass, @pmwelec, and @KillerKat, give us your opinions! 

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I will take India and New Zealand as my two bets but hoping it is a good tournament.

Yeah, I think New Zealand are great value but I'm struggling to see past England. I'm interested to see how West Indies do. They usually have a poor game at some point that hampers their efforts but considering they had to qualify for the tournament they have some decent talent coming through.

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I have decided to have a speculative bet on this tournament.

The format is a round robin involving 10 teams each playing each other. The top 4 progress to the semi finals so non qualifying teams will play 9 matches and qualifying teams up to 11 (i don't think there is a 3rd and 4th play off).

Rashid Khan was in feb 2018 rated the top ICC bowler in ODI's. He is Afghanistan's best player and rated one of the best ODI bowlers in the world. Sporting index have a top bowler index which pays 100-50-25

I have bought him at 6. This is risky as he will in all likelihood only play 9 games and they are only paying out on the top 3 but he is likely to be the top wicket taker for Afghanistan whereas the better sides are more likely to share the wickets around. To counter that the top teams are likely to take more wickets. Small stakes only as risky.

The top batsmen index is the same format 100-50-25

babar azam looks a cheap buy at 8 (kohli is 24 to buy for example)

he may not finish top 3 but there may be in running trading possibilities

2 others that look cheap are chris gayle and steve smith both are 7 to buy

the problem with gayle is his age and fitness. he can barely run and jogs between wickets.

Edited by waynecoyne

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Some interesting bets there, @waynecoyne.

First of all, great to see you in this section. We're trying to get it more active. Secondly, Steve Smith is a fine shout. He's a batsman of such quality that you know he'd be up there with the top run scorers. I'm having a think about bets over the coming days but ones that stand out for me at the moment include...

England vs India Final @ 4.50 with Betfair

Top Batsman: Joss Buttler @ 29.00 with Betway

Top Bowler: Dale Steyn (for old time's sake!) @ 34.00 with BetVictor

I think the Rashid Khan bet is a brave one but, as you say, his games played is likely to restrict him. On the flip side, I think you've made a great call with Babar Azam.

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3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Some interesting bets there, @waynecoyne.

First of all, great to see you in this section. We're trying to get it more active. Secondly, Steve Smith is a fine shout. He's a batsman of such quality that you know he'd be up there with the top run scorers. I'm having a think about bets over the coming days but ones that stand out for me at the moment include...

England vs India Final @ 4.50 with Betfair

Top Batsman: Joss Buttler @ 29.00 with Betway

Top Bowler: Dale Steyn (for old time's sake!) @ 34.00 with BetVictor

I think the Rashid Khan bet is a brave one but, as you say, his games played is likely to restrict him. On the flip side, I think you've made a great call with Babar Azam.

cheers stevie.

india v England is my idea of the final too.

my worry with buttler is that he will be coming in at 5 or 6 and that will restrict him but he is an explosive player.

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27 minutes ago, Stegosaurus said:

Better, but still not good enough! Also, I assume if it’s a boosted bet, they limit how much you can put on it to £10, or £50, or something like that?

If the two teams couldn’t meet until the final, then fair enough, but the fact that they can meet each other in the semis takes a huge deal of value out of the bet.

(The World Cup really should have gone with an IPL-style weighted play-offs system, rather than straight semis and final. Not sure why they didn’t.)

 

Fair enough @Stegosaurus. I had a bit of the 6/1 and wasn't restricted, but if the odds aren't good enough the stake allowed is irrelevant.

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On 5/17/2019 at 10:11 AM, waynecoyne said:

Rashid Khan was in feb 2018 rated the top ICC bowler in ODI's. He is Afghanistan's best player and rated one of the best ODI bowlers in the world. Sporting index have a top bowler index which pays 100-50-25

I have bought him at 6. This is risky as he will in all likelihood only play 9 games and they are only paying out on the top 3 but he is likely to be the top wicket taker for Afghanistan whereas the better sides are more likely to share the wickets around. To counter that the top teams are likely to take more wickets. Small stakes only as risky.

Had a look at that one. If I was going to take a chance on him having a good tournament I'd probably buy his total wickets at 14.2 with Spreadex. He's 6/5 best price to be top Afghanistan bowler which seems a bit skinny to me. In contrast, SPIN quote him at 56-61 in their top Afghanistan bowler market which only applies to 5 named players. As the index pays 100 points to the winner and nothing to the rest that makes him around 4/6 to win and 5/4 not to. A definite sell if you didn't fancy him to have a good tournament. I've gone for the following bet, which comes with a warning that I know nothing about cricket!

Buy Gulbadin Naib in Top Afghanistan bowler market at 6 with SPIN

Effectively that gives you almost 16/1 that he beats Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi, Mujeed Ur Rahman and Dawlat Zadran when he's no more than 8/1 to beat the whole field with the fixed odds firms. Fair to say I've been seduced by his 6 wicket haul against Ireland yesterday but it seems a decent price in a limited field.

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On 5/17/2019 at 10:11 AM, waynecoyne said:

The top batsmen index is the same format 100-50-25

babar azam looks a cheap buy at 8 (kohli is 24 to buy for example)

Decided to follow this one given your comments and the endorsement by @StevieDay1983 but have favoured an each way bet at 25/1 with Hills (1/4 the odds for 4 places). Price is up to 9 but, even at 8, I'd say the fixed odds option offered slightly better value. By my quick calculation, if you compared a 2 point buy at 8 to 8 points each way (both risking 16 points) you'd only be better off on the spreads if he was 2nd. 1st, 3rd or 4th all pay more on fixed odds.

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25 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Decided to follow this one given your comments and the endorsement by @StevieDay1983 but have favoured an each way bet at 25/1 with Hills (1/4 the odds for 4 places). Price is up to 9 but, even at 8, I'd say the fixed odds option offered slightly better value. By my quick calculation, if you compared a 2 point buy at 8 to 8 points each way (both risking 16 points) you'd only be better off on the spreads if he was 2nd. 1st, 3rd or 4th all pay more on fixed odds.

I've done a win bet on the outright at 25/1 also harry. I may sell in running if he has a good start (on the spread). One thing that puzzled me about Rashid khan was a seeming disparity between the spread and fixed odds (6 on spread 20/1 on fixed odds).

Also going back to Kuldeep yadav he was 17 on the spread and 33/1 on fixed odds.

After I placed the kuldeep bet I saw an interview with Nasser hussain who said the Indians would go with jadeja , chahal and maybe kuldeep, which was a little worrying.

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Just thought I'd note the spread expectations for player runs and wickets to see if anything looked wrong in in the outright markets and clocked a big disagreement on the total runs for Sri Lanka's Dimuth Karunaratne.

SPIN go 280-295 while SX go 320-340. He's just scored 77 against Scotland in what was his first ODI since the 2015 World Cup. I don't know whether the value lies on the sell or buy side. Also worth noting that Royal Panda have him at 250/1 for top batsman when he's sub 100/1 in the vast majority of places. Any more informed view welcome!

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1 hour ago, waynecoyne said:

Also going back to Kuldeep yadav he was 17 on the spread and 33/1 on fixed odds.

After I placed the kuldeep bet I saw an interview with Nasser hussain who said the Indians would go with jadeja , chahal and maybe kuldeep, which was a little worrying.

In to 28/1 now but I've followed as he stood out for me when I compared the spread for his total wickets with his ranking in the fixed odds list. More positives than negatives from my quick google in terms of him being a likely starter so worth chancing to a sensible stake.

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Think I've finished looking at this for tonight but a couple of specials prices have caught my eye and I'd welcome an opinion.

6/4 is widely available for a hat trick to be scored and I've seen 10/11 for one not to be scored. I'm inclined to take the 6/4 as there have been hat tricks in 6 out of 11 World Cups, including all of the last 5 with 2 each in 2003/11/15. Any reason why the trend should stop this year?

I've also seen 7/2 for any team to be bowled out for <100 runs which instinctively appealed and seems to stack up on closer inspection. I make it there have been 17 sub 100 totals in the 11 tournaments with 10 in the 4 played since the turn of the century. Doesn't feel like a 7/2 shot to me! :unsure

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38 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Think I've finished looking at this for tonight but a couple of specials prices have caught my eye and I'd welcome an opinion.

6/4 is widely available for a hat trick to be scored and I've seen 10/11 for one not to be scored. I'm inclined to take the 6/4 as there have been hat tricks in 6 out of 11 World Cups, including all of the last 5 with 2 each in 2003/11/15. Any reason why the trend should stop this year?

I've also seen 7/2 for any team to be bowled out for <100 runs which instinctively appealed and seems to stack up on closer inspection. I make it there have been 17 sub 100 totals in the 11 tournaments with 10 in the 4 played since the turn of the century. Doesn't feel like a 7/2 shot to me! :unsure

the 7/2 sounds tempting harry but the poorer teams nowadays are no mugs and with 50 overs if a team gets off to a bad start they will consolidate. on balance I think i'll leave

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Just thought I'd note the spread expectations for player runs and wickets to see if anything looked wrong in in the outright markets and clocked a big disagreement on the total runs for Sri Lanka's Dimuth Karunaratne.

SPIN go 280-295 while SX go 320-340. He's just scored 77 against Scotland in what was his first ODI since the 2015 World Cup. I don't know whether the value lies on the sell or buy side. Also worth noting that Royal Panda have him at 250/1 for top batsman when he's sub 100/1 in the vast majority of places. Any more informed view welcome!

you could always arb this . I know its a dirty word but seems obvious if you can get on to small stakes.

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Just realised there's less teams than previously so less matches and less "rags". Have looked only at games involving the 10 teams taking part this year and the stats are less compelling, Will mull it over.

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Just realised that the top batsman bet on Babar Azam will have qualified for Hills' offer of a free fiver bet for every century he scores which is ok for a bet I was placing anyway.

I'd already decided to go with the lowest team total <100 bet at 7/2 before I'd realised there were less minnows taking part this year. I've had a saver on it being <120 at 2/1 with Skybet which seems a more likely outcome for the 10 teams taking part.

I'm going to take a closer look at the hat trick bet to see if the 6/4 still appeals or not.

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Right, I've done some analysis looking at the last 4 World Cups and focusing on games played between the 10 teams taking part this year. In total, there have been 103 games between those 10 teams (between 23 and 29 in any one tournament). This year, there will be 45 games between those ten teams (45 round robin and 3 knock out).

Over those 4 World Cups, there have been 4 hat tricks in games between the 10 teams (and another 3 in other games). There were 2 (0) in 2015, 0 (2) in 2011, 1 (0) in 2007 and 1 (1) in 2003. On that basis, I'm happy to take 6/4 about there being at least 1 hat trick this year.

For scores <100, the analysis is less encouraging with just 2 in 2011 in games between the 10 teams. There were 8 in games involving teams not taking part this year. 

For scores <120, there have been 7 in games between the 10 teams and 12 in games involving other teams.

Conclusion; the 7/2 for <100 is not as good as I first thought but the 2/1 for <120 is probably a better bet at the price. Maybe worth asking Hills and PP to offer a <120 price as they both go 7/2 for <100 while Skybet are only 11/4! :unsure

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I am looking forward to reading the racing post preview which will probably be published on the Tuesday of next week (i'm guessing -championship play off final on Monday). Anybody know when it will be published?

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The 2019 Cricket World Cup officially starts in seven days so here are the odds for the first batch of matches. Take a look at these odds and let us know any early bets you're thinking of betting on these specific games. :ok

@Fader, @neilovan, @Ocerradus, @aussietennisexpert, @NoFear, @owenclass, @pmwelec, @waynecoyne. @harry_rag, and @KillerKat.

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I would fancy India for this or ofcourse England (hosts tend to win this and/or do well) so the 6/1 on England Vs India final would probably be a good bet to cover those two doing well. I would want to look outside of those for value in the outright market. I will take South Africa and West Indies. South Africa because of the quality they have with the ball, of which will win this event, not the batting. West Indies purely for the price. 20/1 is a big price for a team that can beat anybody on their day.

2.5pts South Africa to win the World Cup 10/1 bet365
1.5pts West Indies to win the World Cup 20/1 unibet

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I'm also going to add Yadav to my bowler trio. India should minimum get to the Semi-finals and this guy just looks the mustard. The price avaliable looks far, far too big.

1pt K.Yadav top bowler (of world cup) 25/1 bet365

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