Hunter Chase - 6.10 Southwell

[Darran]

First Hunter Chase of the week comes up at Southwell and David Maxwell will be looking to increase his lead in the leading Hunter Chase jockey title. This time he rides Ballotin who looks the most likely winner. He was the only horse to give Road To Rome a race in the Walrus at Haydock and paid for that when ending up finishing 4th. He then went to Leicester over a trip that was a bit short of the ideal, but it didn't matter and he won easily over 2m. He beat Double Ross that day who then went and won at Chepstow. After that he was trying to give Arthur's Secret a race at Ludlow but came down at the 4th last. It was a pretty nasty fall and he was lame afterwards which is probably why he has been missing since. I know some people actually thought he was still in with a chance of winning and although I disagree with them it was still a top effort especially in the context of this race.

 

Shimla Dawn somehow went off favourite for this race last year, but could only finish 5th to Galway Jack. I didn't fancy him at all that day because he wasn't going to get an easy lead and he could never get to the front. Compare that to Musselburgh when I did put him up and he got an easy lead and never saw another rival and won by 15L. He ruined any chance at Aintree when making a mistake at the first and then slithered on landing. He should get an easy lead here although I imagine Maxwell will keep him very close.

 

Hurricane Vic and Martha's Benefit don't make much appeal so Dark Mahler is the only other possible winner. Dark Mahler and Shimla Dawn made their reappearances in the same race at Sheriff Hutton in January and the former finished a well beaten 5th with the latter pulling up. I wouldn't read too much that though as they have both improved for that run with Dark Mahler landing a hat-trick. The problem is I am not sure the form is overly strong. Granted he won by 25L earlier in the month and the horse he beat won on Sunday, but that one won in a very slow time and was 1/2. The drop in trip shouldn't be a concern and it should be a truly run race to help on that front.

 

Ballotin should win this and he is the right price for me. I think Shimla Dawn is the most likely to finish 2nd as I can see him making a bold bid from the front before Maxwell picks him up in the straight. It seems sensible to cover on Dark Mahler to come 2nd as well though given he is the only other one with a chance for me to finish 2nd.

 

Ballotin to beat Shimla Dawn 1.5pts f/c

Ballotin to beat Dark Mahler 0.5pts f/c

[yossa6133]

What's the best way of doing the forecasts with the bookies? Is it paid out on the tote price or can you take a price?

I noticed they are betting without the fav, 23/10 Shimla and 7/4 Dark Mahler. I don't know how that compares with the forecast payout but it does cut the risk of Ballotin falling or having a stinker.

EDIT, Sorry, it's not without the fav, ignore me! It's actually to finish 2nd, so no real advantage!

Edited May 14, 2019 by yossa6133

[yossa6133]

W/O fav prices are actually Evens Dark Mahler, 3/2 Shimla.

[Darran]

I know bet365 offer a forecast price and I think it’s bog as well. Not sure if other bookies do that. If not then you either take the csf dividend or stick it on with the tote. Hard to recommend one over the other as wouldn’t say either one has the upper hand when paying more than the other. What I would say though is at the front end of the market there is unlikely to be too much difference between the two. You could always split your stakes between them if you want both bases covered.

[yossa6133]

Thanks Darran, Bet365 looks a good option. Ballotin to bt Shimla 3.17/1 at the moment.

[Darran]

CSF paid £3.51 whereas the Tote paid £4.10 and would have given people a small profit on the race. Can confirm 365 do BOG on their forecast prices as well