Trotter Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 After reading the VDW thread I thought I'd check out another system from decades ago when I first got interested in racing. Basically just a Points system based on last 2 form figures, C, D and CD wins Last 2 runs 1 = 5 pts 2 = 3 pts 3 = 2 pts Bonus points C = 1 pt D = 1 pt CD = 3 pts The problem with the system once you got to know a bit more about the sport was that it took no account of class. For example a horse that had won two Sellers and one had been over 12 furlongs at Epsom would be top rated for the Derby ahead of a horse that had won The Racing Post Trophy and Guineas as it's last two runs. Obviously ridiculous. But once you start looking behind the points and assessing class and going and all the other variables that don't show up in a pure points system you might as well forget it and just study the race as you normally do. The purpose of a points system (or any system) is to take the subjective element out and throw up random selections that have some logic behind them So anyway I had a brainwave ...…… If you stick to the lowest class of handicap then the form figures and bonus points will almost certainly have been earned in that class or higher ……. you can't have horses with points earned in lower classes of race because there aren't any (they could be Sellers but they're usually on a par with class 6). So I thought I'd stick to Class 6 Handicaps on the Flat and Class 5 over Jumps. Top two rated (in one of the races today there is joint 2nd rated) Here's today's selections ……... Tues 14/05 Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3 Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB), Aristocracy 5 Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4, Boycie 4 Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5, Avonmore 4 Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5, Babytaggle 5 Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest BillyHills, yossa6133, black rabbit and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Trotter said: After reading the VDW thread I thought I'd check out another system from decades ago when I first got interested in racing. Basically just a Points system based on last 2 form figures, C, D and CD wins Last 2 runs 1 = 5 pts 2 = 3 pts 3 = 2 pts Bonus points C = 1 pt D = 1 pt CD = 3 pts Clive Holts Fineform by any chance ? I think I have it and the revised version tucked away somewhere on one of my many pen drives Used it years ago has its moments good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Clive Holts Fineform by any chance ? I think I have it and the revised version tucked away somewhere on one of my many pen drives Used it years ago has its moments good luck Yes, that's exactly what it was ……… I'm sure it could have been summed up in a paragraph but I think he padded it out to fill a little booklet I don't remember ever buying it but maybe I did Alley Cat Glover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Trotter said: Yes, that's exactly what it was ……… I'm sure it could have been summed up in a paragraph but I think he padded it out to fill a little booklet I don't remember ever buying it but maybe I did Padded it out to fill a BOOK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Available for 98p now on Amazon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 That does look familiar …….. I must have owned it at some point or borrowed it I haven't got it now though ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 7 hours ago, Trotter said: Here's today's selections ……... Tues 14/05 Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3 Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB) (Placed 7/2), Aristocracy 5 Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4 (WON 3/1), Boycie 4 (NR) Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5 (Placed 6/4), Avonmore 4 Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5 (WON 5/2), Babytaggle 5 (Placed 3/1) Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest Couple of winners and a few places I think next time I do this I'm just going to give the top rated and not bother with second rated ones …….. the system can stand or fall by which horse is top rated. I think that's more meaningful ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 Wednesday selections As I'm only doing the top rated I'm not including races with no clear top rated horse Wed 15/05 Bath 7.55 - Gendarme 7 Bath 8.25 - Act of Magic 9 Perth 7.35 - The Boola Bee 6 Yarm 2.00 - Scandinavian Lady 6 Yarm 3.45 - Cosmic Ray 9 Yarm 4.45 - Irish Times 6 Yarm 5.15 - Space War 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 I think this was the first racing book I bought. It recorded the performance of the maximum rated (13 points) over the course of a year and it showed a reasonable profit. I checked it once over a number of following years and needless to say it showed a loss. If only racing was that easy ! Valiant Thor 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I think this was the first racing book I bought. It recorded the performance of the maximum rated (13 points) over the course of a year and it showed a reasonable profit. I checked it once over a number of following years and needless to say it showed a loss. If only racing was that easy ! I'm hoping that my idea of restricting this to the bottom grade of handicaps will eliminate the main problem with the basic system ……. ie that it took no account of the class of race in which the 'points' had been earned ………. hence the possibility of the Seller winner being top rated for the Derby as in the opening post Any points against a horse's name will have been this in this class or a higher class because there is no lower class I'll give it a few days and see how it goes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 15, 2019 Author Share Posted May 15, 2019 Disappointing …….. I've taken out a non runner so left with one win and one place Wed 15/05 Bath 7.55 - Gendarme 7 - placed 11/4 Bath 8.25 - Act of Magic 9 Perth 7.35 - The Boola Bee 6 - WON 4/5 Yarm 3.45 - Cosmic Ray 9 Yarm 4.45 - Irish Times 6 Yarm 5.15 - Space War 6 Only one qualifying race on Thurs …….. it's obviously a high class day's racing ! Thu 16/05 Perth 4.45 - Roll of Thunder 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Systemight Posted May 15, 2019 Share Posted May 15, 2019 I also have this book,never rated the ratings system if i am honest-it never worked for me. I am pretty sure Clive Holt brought out a follow up book(profitable winners always back value winners) to this,where his rating method was adjusted, so i assume over time it stopped working for him also. Nevertheless both were good reads with some unique insights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 16, 2019 Author Share Posted May 16, 2019 20 hours ago, Trotter said: Only one qualifying race on Thurs …….. it's obviously a high class day's racing ! Thu 16/05 Perth 4.45 - Roll of Thunder 6 WON 2/1 Race did cut up a bit with a couple of non runners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 16, 2019 Author Share Posted May 16, 2019 Another decent day's racing on Friday with only 1 bottom grade handicap...…. Fri 17/05 Ham 9.05 - Highly Focussed 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 On 5/16/2019 at 4:58 PM, Trotter said: Fri 17/05 Ham 9.05 - Highly Focussed 6 WON 4/1 Few more races on Saturday Sat 18/05 Bang 2.15 - Change Ur Tune 8 Bang 4.35 - Armattiekan 4 Thirsk 5.40 - Ginger Jam 8 Thirsk 6.10 - Scuzeme 6 Uttox 5.50 - Dovils date 5 Uttox 6.50 - Mister Mister 11 Uttox 8.50 - Agentleman 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 18, 2019 Author Share Posted May 18, 2019 On 5/17/2019 at 9:18 PM, Trotter said: Sat 18/05 Bang 2.15 - Change Ur Tune 8 Bang 4.35 - Armattiekan 4 Thirsk 5.40 - Ginger Jam 8 Thirsk 6.10 - Scuzeme 6 (WON 11/4) Uttox 5.50 - Dovils date 5 (WON 11/4) Uttox 6.50 - Mister Mister 11 Uttox 8.50 - Agentleman 8 Couple of winners and a small profit keeps us ahead since I started posting top rated selections only Wed 15/05 - 6 selections, 1 winner - lost 4.20 Thu 16/05 - 1 selection, won - won 2.00, total - 2.20 Fri 17/05 - 1 selection, won - won 4.00 - total + 1.80 Sat 18/05 - 7 selections, 2 winners - won 0.50 - total + 2.30 On to Sunday 19/05 MR 5.45 - Polarbrook 8 Rip 2.35 - Ascot Dreamer 6 Rip 3.10 - Timetodock 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 (edited) Hi Trotter Finally found the fineform stuff on a pendrive, rules below if you want them Clive Holt released 3 versions of his fineform formula, His third and final version was the Fineform Master Formula (Private Handicapping) Last two outings only 1st = 5pts each win 2nd = 3pts each 2nd 3rd = 2pts each 3rd 4th = 1pt each 4th *If only one outing of the current season double points above* Previous course winner(C) = 1pt Previous distance winner(D) = 2pts Previous Course & Distance winner (C.D or C&D) = 3pts In first 3 of betting forecast = 3pts In top 3 of form ratings = 4pts The runner with the highest total of points is considered best for that race (Max 20pts) Edited May 19, 2019 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 19, 2019 Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 Cheers VT What I'm finding even with my version is that I'm picking horses at the top of the market of course because I'm sticking with the lowest grade of handicap this is inevitable as placed and winning form plus course and distance will put any horse at the head of the market in grade 6 handicaps This is a bit of a flaw in my reasoning ………. as it means you don't get those surprise random 16/1 winners that you might get looking at all races I think the 'final version' as you've posted it would skew selections even more to the first couple of favourites ……… in any grade of race To be honest I don't think there's much point in taking subjectivity out and having an objective points system if it just picks the first two favourites...…. you might as well just look at the betting ! I'll stick with my system while it's in profit and give it a few more days to see if it can pick anything that isn't the favourite or second favourite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Trotter said: Cheers VT What I'm finding even with my version is that I'm picking horses at the top of the market of course because I'm sticking with the lowest grade of handicap this is inevitable as placed and winning form plus course and distance will put any horse at the head of the market in grade 6 handicaps This is a bit of a flaw in my reasoning ………. as it means you don't get those surprise random 16/1 winners that you might get looking at all races I think the 'final version' as you've posted it would skew selections even more to the first couple of favourites ……… in any grade of race To be honest I don't think there's much point in taking subjectivity out and having an objective points system if it just picks the first two favourites...…. you might as well just look at the betting ! I'll stick with my system while it's in profit and give it a few more days to see if it can pick anything that isn't the favourite or second favourite The overall top rated Is supposed to be the bet of the day. Todays For the Master formula with the full 20pts would be ........... 3.50 Naas Peace Charter @ 9/4 PP & Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: The overall top rated Is supposed to be the bet of the day. Todays For the Master formula with the full 20pts would be ........... 3.50 Naas Peace Charter @ 9/4 PP & Skybet .50 Naas Peace Charter @ 9/4 PP & Skybet 2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 19, 2019 Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 I watched the race …… Peace Charter did beat the favourite easily so maybe the 'match betting' would have been the way to go The first two of my three selections today have gone off favourite (and got beat) ….. must admit this is putting me off my points system. It hadn't really occurred m to me that the way I was doing this would just be picking the favourite which is almost always has done I think I might scupper it and have a rethink ! I still like the idea of having some form of simple points system but I don't think there's much point if it's just picking the favourite! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 (edited) If the selections are taken from current season only Just noticed 4.10 Strat Cillians Well is a 20pts as well 3rd Edited May 19, 2019 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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