yossa6133

Melzer wins 76(6) 75 

Hopefully I can continue the good form so far this month on Tuesday night and I have 3 bets in the Bostik Premier.
Folkestone v Carshalton
The home side had a superb season last time around and were in the title race until late on. I did think it might be a one off and although they started fairly well they have not been in great form in recent weeks. They have only won once in their last 7 games, in fairness that was a good win over 4th place Bognor, and have lost 5 of them including on Saturday when they lost 2-0 to Lewes. Carshalton have won back to back games and they have a fair chance of being able to make it 3 I think. In my view there isn't a great deal between these two sides and Marathon go a shade over 2/1 on an away win and that is just big enough for me to play.
Potters Bar Town v Bishops Stortford
The away side are turning into a bit of a surprise package and having started poorly they are in a rich vein of form at the moment. They are unbeaten in 6 and that includes a win at the league leaders Tonbridge and they were impressive in beating Corinthian-Casuals 3-0 on Saturday. Potters Bar aren't doing too badly after gaining promotion last season, but they won their first two games and have only managed to win 2 of their following 10. It is hard to see how the away team have been priced up at 2/1 for this as the Essex side have plenty of confidence at the moment and they look a fair bet here.
Whitehawk v Lewes
The home side were one of the ante-post favs for this league, but I believed that with Steve King leaving they would have no chance and that is exactly how it has turned out. They have only won twice all season and are just two points away from the relegation zone. It is also worth highlighting that their two wins this season have been against the bottom two sides in the division Harlow and Burgess Hill. They lost 6-0 on Saturday at Enfield. Lewes on the other-hand are having a good season and will fancy themselves to be in the play-off hunt. They have only conceded 3 times on the road this season and their only two defeats after their opening day loss have been by 1 goal, which included a 7 goal thriller against a good side in Worthing. As mentioned above they had another good win at the weekend over Folkestone and they will fancy themselves to win this. Marathon go 59/50 about an away win.
Carshalton 1pt @101/50 with Marathon
Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Lewes 1pt @ 59/50 with Marathon

It's a cheeky round of midweek fixtures in the Championship coming up. Here are the odds and ratings. I'll look to put some thoughts up over the next few days relating to the games. In the meantime, please share your bets to back below! 
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @harry_rag, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @Wanderer89, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, and @the bastardian, what bets are you all backing for these matches?

Kubrat Pulev vs. Hughie Fury
=> Hughie Fury ML @ 2.20 Pinnacle stake: 4/10
I know it's in Bulgaria and obviously that's the reason why Pulev is the underdog here otherwise he would be definitely prized as the favorite. I don't know if it's really a factor here as Epic sports won the purse bid. I doubt Pulev should be the favorite here, i don't know but he is quite inactive recently, his last fight was 18 months ago vs. oldie Kevin Johnson who isn't anyone you can take seriously as he is only running away, a very negative fighter in the ring as you could see vs Dubois this month who also went the distance. Pulev only fought one solid opponent since losing to Wladimir Klitschko in 2014 and that was Chisora two years ago where he edged a split decision over the Brit and it was more or less deserved but Hughie Fury is a completly different matchup. Hugie developed very well since the Parker loss. He is fast, moving a lot, has a good jab and of course has the height and reach as a big advantage. I think Pulev is a solid stylistic matchup for Fury as Hughie knows how to deal with a guy who probably only has the jab as his biggest weapon. Pulev is no slugger and no brawler, he is nobody who throws the right hand uncautious, he is a safety first boxer and i doubt that's enough as he won't have the speed to trouble Hughie. Odds are close i know and it might be correctly but i have the feeling Hughie will pull this out as he should ! be the guy who have all things on his side apart from the home factor.

Jurgen Melzer to beat Milos Raonic at 6.09 with Pinnacle
Fully agree with @opole on this, the odds are just too juicy.
Marco Cecchinato to beat Henri Laaksonen at 1.68 with Unibet
Yannick Mertens to beat Harry Bourchier at 1.56 with Pinnacle
These two picks aren't really about backing Cecchinato and Mertens, even though they aren't bad players by any stretch of imagination. It's just that I really don't rate their opponents at all. Laaksonen has been a mess for quite a while now, he doesn't have what it takes to compete on the main tour these days really, while Bourchier doesn't have what it takes to compete in Challengers imo, he's a futures-level guy all things considered.

The last round was a bit disappointing for me, as I made the even on Full time result bets, mostly due to the missed penalty by Riyad Mahrez and the draw between City and Liverpool. Unfortunately, none of my Correct score was a winner, though some of them were pretty close (especially with all the missed chances by Marko Arnautović and West Ham) and there I recorded 10 units loss. Fortunately for me, these losses have been compensated by the previous rounds.
However, here is what I think about the meetings in this round. I must say this is very tough round to predict.
Chelsea – Manchester United 1:0 8.5
The win for Chelsea is estimated at 1.72, which is too low when you have to bet against United in any form they are. This automatically means that a bet for the guests in this match would be totally justified with odds of 5.25, but this is something that must be decided by the betting strategy of each player. As far as what I expect from the game itself, I’m quite certain between 0:0 and 1:0. It is more than clear that Mourinho will park the bus and play to avoid losing. The only question is whether Eden Hazard will be able to do some magic or not. I still think he will succeed and that’s why my betting prediction is 1:0. However, I am going to bet on this match only for fun, but if I bet seriously then I would go for Under 2.5 goals scored in the match with odds of 2.
Bournemouth – Southampton 2:1 9.5
Another match that is unclear for me, but at least the odds look better. Bournemouth’s home win against Southampton looks more secure than a possible win for Chelsea against United, but the bookmakers give odds of 2.15 for it. It is clear to everyone that the Cherries play great football and they deliver the ball quickly and very well. What is more important they are capable of gaining goals from their style of play. However, in this match they have many possible injury problems. The state of Joshua King and Ryan Fraser is still unclear. If King cannot take part in the match, it is questionable whether we will see Jermain Defoe in the game, and what he would do at the pitch. As for possible Fraser’s lack, Eddie Howie has a Junior Stanislas to replace him.
Cardiff – Fulham 0:0 12
Another meeting in this nine round, which is a complete fog for me. Both teams are definitely among the weakest in the league and frankly this game can go in every direction.
Manchester City – Burnley 3:0 6.5
Here, obviously, the only question is how many goals City will score. In fact, there is one more question. Will Burnley be able to score or not? Again a match where the odds do not suggest anything interesting for a good bet.
Newcastle – Brighton 1:0 6.5
In this match, the home win odds seems to be quite accurate at 2.2 and there is no value bet, but I would still bet for Newcastle. In their last few matches (without the one against Leicester), the hosts are showing a more stable game, although the squad formation which Rafael Benítez 4-4-1-1 plays implies a lot of grief in attack. Apart from that, the schedule until January for Newcastle looks so good that I guess everyone in the team has been bumped for a good series of results. As for Brighton, they certainly did not impress in their victory against West Ham in the last round, but they are very strong in defense. That’s what makes me hesitate between 1:0 and 0:0, but the home factor weighs.
West Ham – Tottenham 1:2 9
Another match in this round, which is best to miss. A London derby, where the hosts looked good in their last games, despite the loss against Brighton. Tottenham clearly have a higher class which makes this one a meeting in which it is difficult to find a good bet.
Wolves – Watford 0:0 10
One of the games I’m going to bet on a surprise because most bets will definitely go for the hosts. Wolves certainly didn’t play that well against Palace in the last game. They really had only one good goal attempt in the game and realized it. However, only one good goal attempt in a match against a team like Palace doesn’t look good. Watford is in a bad series, but can get something out of this game.
Huddersfield – Liverpool 1:3 13
Another match in that round, from which it is best to stay away. Many injuries in Liverpool, such as Salah, Mane, Firmino, Henderson, van Dijk and Milner. Apart from that, most Huddersfield’s players have been rested during the national teams matches, which cannot be said for the guests. Apart from that, Liverpool have a Champions League match next week. However, how would one bet on Huddersfield against Liverpool even after all that has been said so far? Moreover, the guests have substitutes for the injured players like Xherdan Shaqiri and Daniel Sturridge.
Everton – Crystal Palace 1:1 7
One more match where I will bet on the surprise. Despite Everton’s victory over Leicester (which surprised me very much), the hosts seem to be not particularly strong in the attack. On the other hand, Palace played very well in the last match. However, there is a question will Wilfried Zaha be involved in the match.
Arsenal – Leicester 3:1 12
Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are becoming more and more scary for everyone, and in their last game Arsenal has shown really great football. If this match against Leicester had been played last week, I have no concerns about how it would end. But now, after the break for the international meetings, I have the huge gap between the games in mind.
At the end to say it again, this ninth round of the Premier League is certainly the most difficult one so far, and at least I would bet on most of the games just for fun. No risks or high stakes for me.

I fancy Villa to beat Swansea, bit worried about your stat about their manager's first game in charge though!
I'm a Forest fan and I'm finding us hard to predict, we were dreadful against Millwall then go and beat Boro away, so I don't know.
Wigan seem to have gone off the boil lately, while WBA are slowly coming together, looks an away win to me.
Villa and WBA in my small acca. 

Last weekend was really good and the double on Tuesday night kept things ticking over nicely. 64 teams on Saturday will be hoping they are in the hat for Monday nights FA Cup 1st Round draw and finally the bookies have woken up to offering odds on the competition. I have 5 bets in the FA Cup and also one bet in the National League South.
Concord Rangers v Dover
If this game had taken place a couple of weeks ago I would have backed the home side, however Andy Hessenthaler had an instant impact on Dover last weekend. They should have beaten Harrogate last Saturday having been the better side for most of the game especially in the 2nd half. It was only a 95th minute equaliser which lead to them only getting a point. This was a huge improvement on the performances Dover have been putting in this season if they can repeat that then I think they can get into the 1st Round. Concord got off to a really good start in National League South, but their form of late has not been great and they have only managed to beat Truro in their last 7 league games. They do have a good squad so at their best they can make things tricky for Dover, but like I say if Dover can get anywhere near the level they did in Hessenthaler's first game in charge then I can't see anything but a Dover win. Bet365 are best price on a Dover win at 15/8.
Eastleigh v Hampton & Richmond
I took Hessenthaler's former club on last week and it proved a profitable decision and I am going to take them on again here. Granted they were facing an improving Aldershot side, but I do get the feeling that Hessenthaler leaving has had an effect on the team and it has put a stop to the improvement they were making. I think that could leave them vulnerable to a Cup upset especially to a side like Hampton. They had won 5 games on the bounce in the league, but have lost their last two. The first was against league leaders Billericay though who were superb against them and then they lost to Wealdstone last Saturday which was their first away defeat of the season although it wasn't helped by a red card in the 2nd half. They have the capability to cause Eastleigh problems and it might just be the right time to be playing them. Marathon are 13/4 about an away win.
Ebbsfleet v Worthing
To be fair to Ebbsfleet it sounds like they were a little unlucky to lose to Solihull although regular readers will know they have been much better on their travels than they have been at home and I am sure they are far from looking forward to this match which looks a potential Cup upset. Worthing maybe two levels below their hosts on Saturday, but they are having a superb season so far. They have only lost once in the league and are just one point behind the leaders in 2nd place. Worthing should be looking forward to this as I would love to be playing Ebbsfleet at home at the moment given how lacklustre they are on their own pitch at the moment. They will obviously be high on confidence as well and there is a huge amount of pressure on Ebbsfleet to avoid defeat and manager Daryl McMahon could be out of a job if they lose this. The 7/1 with BetVictor about an away win makes plenty appeal.
Met Police v Havant & Waterlooville
I think the home side could cause an upset against a Havant side who are struggling for wins. Obviously this is an easier match than they are used to playing in the league, but travelling to a side who are making themselves hard to beat. They have only lost two games in the league so far this season and although they have drawn more than they have won, they had a great 4-1 win over Taunton 3 weeks ago and last weekend they were involved in a 4-4 thriller with Basingstoke. I love taking on teams who have a lot of pressure on because they are struggling in their league especially when they are playing away at teams who are capable on their day of causing on upset and this game fits the bill. If you can get a bet on with Boylesports then they are 15/4 otherwise it is 7/2 with BetVictor and Betway.
Warrington v Halifax
Warrington had won 7 league games on the bounce prior to just their 2nd defeat of the season last weekend against Matlock. They didn't play well and maybe they had their minds on this game because they have a real chance of causing an upset and getting through to the 1st Round. I didn't think there was a great deal of quality on show in the Halifax v Chesterfield game on the TV last weekend and as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago Halifax's away form is poor with just one win so far this season. Warrington made the play-offs last season and they are now favourites for the title this time around after their superb start to the season. I wouldn't want to go too much lower, but I think there is value in BetVictor's and Betway's 2/1 on a home win.
FA Cup Acca
I like 4 odds on shots to win on Saturday. It is hard to see Salford or Torquay failing to beat Marine or Winchester respectively and they both look bankers. Boreham Wood host Dagenham & Redbridge and given how off the pace Dagenham look at the moment it really should be a home win especially given how strong Boreham Wood are at home. The final tie also features two sides from the same division as Weston-Super-Mare host Bath. Weston are still yet to win in the league and they have had a very easy passage to this stage of the competition. It looks a great chance for Bath, who have won 7 out of their last 10 league games, to reach the 1st Round. The acca pays around 4.7/1 with Marathon.
Dartford v Dulwich
I think Dulwich are a big price at 13/5 for this as I think Dulwich are the better side. Now Dartford have only lost one game in their last 6, but they have beaten East Turrock and Weston who are both in the relegation zone and have only 8 points between them so far this season. They were fortunate to get points against Eastbourne and Billericay and they beat Chippenham last week, but the winner came from their keeper whose kick was helped by the strong wind. Dulwich have really hit their stride now they have got used to the league and have only lost once in their last 6 games, winning their last 3. One of those victories was a win at Woking so going to another of the league's bigger teams won't bother them at all. I think they have a much better chance than their odds of 13/5 with Bet365 suggest.
Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365
Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 13/4 with Marathon
Worthing 1pt @ 7/1 with BetVictor
Met Police 1pt @ 15/4 with Boylesports
Warrington 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor and Betway
Salford/Torquay/Boreham Wood/Bath 1pt acca @ 4/7/1 with Marathon
Dulwich 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365

Sheffield Wednesday vs Middlesbrough
Now, I'm a little nervous doing this preview with us boasting a resident Owls fan in the shape of @waynecoyne but hopefully any tips I make he can expand on below. It's Sheffield Wednesday versus Middlesbrough in the Friday night kick-off at 7:45pm from Hillsborough.
Wednesday gaffer Jos Luhukay appears to be starting something interesting at the club. A rather bland start to the season has taken an upturn in recent weeks. The Owls are now unbeaten in their last 4 league games and have only lost 1 of their last 9 Championship games. This has seen them rise to 6th in the table on 19 points after 12 games. Encouraging stuff.
Middlesbrough have stuttered lately after what had been a very positive start. Tony Pulis saw his side win 4 of their first 5 league matches to set the early pace in the Championship with Leeds. However, just 1 win in their last 4 league matches has seen them drop to 4th in the table and they're now just 3 points ahead of their opponents in this game.
My immediate feeling looking at the statistics here is that a draw looks like the best bet. Wednesday are undefeated at home but have drawn 4 of their 6 league games at Hillsborough. Middlesbrough's record on the road is almost identical having drawn 50% of their away games. It seems Wednesday struggle to break teams down on home turf and Boro know how to grind out the results away.
One interesting fact you'll want to know if you're following in-play betting for this game is that Middlesbrough haven't lost in 67 Championship where they've taken the lead. It's a run that stretches right back to 7th March, 2015 when they lost 2-1 to Nottingham Forest away. So if Boro take the lead then get on that!
It's also worth noting that Middlesbrough haven't conceded a goal in the first half since the opening day of the season against Millwall. In fact, with only 6 goals conceded this season they have conceded an average of 0.5 goals per game. It's one of the best defensive records the second tier of English football has seen at this stage of a season.
I'm tempted to back Middlesbrough for a narrow win but Wednesday are a vastly improved outfit. Luhukay is giving some of the youngsters a chance to shine and with Jordan Thorniley, Cameron Dawson, and Matt Penney getting a lot of game time it feels like the future is bright for the Owls. I'm just not sure they'll have enough to break down this Boro side.
Draw @ 3.30 with Betfred
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.68 with Unibet
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @harry_rag, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @Wanderer89, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, and @the bastardian, what bets are you guys placing this weekend and do you agree with the preview above?

A few games at step 3 this mid-week and a home double in the Evo-Stik Southern Premier South makes some appeal.
Chesham have been really poor so far this season having won just once and drawn just once so far this season. The win against Farnborough was two games ago, but in three out of their last 4 league games they have conceded 4 goals each time including on Saturday when Salisbury put 4 past them. They go to Beaconsfield who have only lost twice so far this term and although they have yet to win at home in 4 league games this looks the perfect game to get their first home 3 points of the season.
Walton Casuals is the other bet and they host Staines. Casuals didn't win any of their first 5 league games, but they have won 3 of their next 5 and are looking in much better shape now. Crucially they host a Staines side who are looking in desperate trouble. They have won just twice in the league (one of which was against Chesham) and have lost their other 8. In their last 4 league games they have conceded a huge 18 goals. Also these two sides played each other in the league cup earlier in the month and Casuals won 6-1 that night. It is hard to see how Staines are going to turn that around given how they have played since and are conceding goals for fun. 
Now Oddschecker isn't playing ball with this league so I have only checked 3 firms and Bet365 and Betfred were joint best of those 3 with odds of 1.7/1 on the double. I am having a point on that.

Switzerland v Iceland
Switzerland to win @ 1.75 seems decent. Switzerland was impressive against Belgium, but i don't think Iceland is going to take another 6-0 again. More like a 2 goals diff win. Small to medium stake.

Spain v England
Where i'm from, Spain to win is @ 1.55 which is a bit too low for my taste. I think the game is going to be tighter than what the odds implies and if i'm proven right i might place a live bet on this. 

France v Germany
I think France is a vastly superior team in every aspects, but these french guys are pretty lazy when the stakes are low. Though Deschamps said he wanted to go to the final round, and he usually get what he want from his players...
The very worst that can happen for France here is another draw, but France to win @ 1.65 is a bit low here imo. There is a good chance that the first half will be closed and that France odds will go as far as ~2 in game. 

Re : long-term bet on the group phase : 
Apparently combining Belgium/Portugal/any others teams to finish first isn't allowed at my bookies since these outcomes are seen as not independents (kinda bs but whatever), so i ended up just putting money on Portugal @ 1.5 which is looking good so far. 

A showdown with intense grading, Greece must never lose. The next one welcomes Finland and can overtake it. I expect to be a hard game with few goals and phases, with many goals from both teams
FINLAND vs GREECE @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.40
The quality of Bosnia is a given and with three out of three today across Northern Ireland it will end well with the group's first. The visitors count only defeats away
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA vs NORTHERN IRELAND @@ BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA, odds 1.65

Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Northern Ireland
League B Group 3 enters its second half of games this Monday night when Bosnia-Herzegovina play Northern Ireland in a 7:45pm kick-off at the Stadion Grbavica in Sarajevo and the home side have a massive opportunity to take a step towards promotion to League A with victory here.
Bosnia-Herzegovina have won both of their group matches so far with a 2-1 win against Northern Ireland in Belfast and a 1-0 win over Austria. Tight matches are a speciality of Robert Prosinecki's side. Since the former Croatian international took over at the helm, his side have only played one game where the result has been decided by more than a single goal on one occasion. Since Prosinecki's took over on 4th January this year he has seen Bosnia-Herzegovina win 4, draw 4, and lose 1.
Northern Ireland surprised me in their game against Austria on Friday night by holding out for so long. However, the pressure told eventually and Austria got the clean sheet victory that I anticipated. I can see a similar outcome here. Bosnia-Herzegovina are defensively sound having conceded just 3 goals in their 9 matches under Prosinecki. Six clean sheets have come in those matches too. That's a hell of a defensive record.
Michael O'Neill needs a win here otherwise his team are staring relegation to League C in the face. It would be zero points from three games with just a single home game against Austria left to level on points with their opponents that night. They would also need Austria to lose at home to Bosnia-Herzegovina before that encounter to keep their hopes alive. On the flip side, a shock win here would open the group right up heading into the last two matches.
I just don't think Northern Ireland have enough in attack to threaten this resolute Bosnian defence. That being said, Northern Ireland did breach the Bosnian back-line in the return leg back in September but it came at the cost of two goals conceded. It won't be as easy in Sarajevo. I can see a Bosnian clean sheet win here.
Bosnia-Herzegovina to Win to Nil @ 2.38 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.63 with MarathonBet

I've placed a medium bet on Kosovo NOT to keep a clean sheet at the Faroe Islands (i.e. Faroe Island to score). Odds at bet365 is 1.8 which looks like value to me since the home team has scored in 4 of their last 6 home matches. And these matches were against a similar-level opposition - Andorra, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Azerbaijan. Moreover, the Faroes failed to score against Azerbaijan 3 days ago but they had a few chances (even hit the post) and they must be extra motivated to score today. They are always looking for opportunities to shoot from a long range or headers in the penalty box. They are under no pressure to win so they could either try to score or go for a 0-0 draw. Kosovo managed to keep a clean sheet in Azerbaijan in September (and in Albania in May), it's time for them to concede a goal away from home.
 

Estonia - Finland
12.10.2018 at 21:45
Pretty good value on Finland here on Friday tomorrow IMO. Estonia is without their captain and best defender Ragnar Klavan, also missing Karol Mets (who is an important part of defensive duties) and Mattias Käit (who is young, but one of the best offensive players for Estonia). Estonian main creative force is Vassiliev, who has been playing for Polish 6th league for a while now due to some problems with his home club Piast Gliwice. Last round of the national team games he was still the best player for Estonia (which shows his class but also the level of Estonia really). 
Estonia does not have offensive power and lacking creativity, we do not have a proper striker either. All forwards are just running around without really knowing what to do or even more often - the ball just doesn't reach them. Adding all this up, it's hard to see Estonia creating many chances, let alone scoring goals. 
On the other hand, Finland is better overall really. They defend better and attack with more ideas and they have a classy striker in Teemu Pukki. I really can't see Estonia getting anything from this match. Last month Finland only won 1-0 at home, but this time Estonia is missing several important defensive players and I expect Finland to be a bit more clinical also ... something like 2-0 is my call
My main pick: Finland win @ 2,25 (Bet365)
Alternative pick/small stakes: Teemu Pukki to score 2 or more @ 17 (Bet365)

My picks so far, first twos are the bigger bets : 

First, Belgium and Portugal to finish first of their group is priced at 1.3 and 1.5 respectively, which makes for a nice double of 1.95, given that there is a big gap between these teams and their group, it would be a shame not to take it. You can add France as well for a tasty 2.7 triple, but 1.9 is good enough for me. Results in a month, obviously place it before thursday evening. 

Poland v Portugal
Woop-di-doo, Portugal bringing the value again. Portugal to win at 2.45 is very generous. I hope i'm not selling Poland short here, i don't think i've seen them play recently, but their past record isn't really great... and Portugal blew away Italy, though with their lack of finishing game, you can't really see it on the scoreline. But Portugal is IMO in another league and should win comfortably. I might go for a bigger stake on the DNB here at 1.65 because of the aforementioned finishing problem. 

Belarus v Luxembourg
I haven't see these teams plays, and i don't usually bet on numbers, but Luxembourg just won 4-0 against Moldava when Belarus tied against them. So i think that you can do worse than putting a few quids on Luxembourg to win at 7.5. DNB at 3.25 is ok as well. Small stake. 
Denmark v Ireland
Another bet on numbers, but Denmark looked good defensively in the WC and looking at Ireland recent record i don't see them scoring a lot against the danish, so a small-to-medium stake on Denmark DNB @ 1.6 seems a decent choice. 

Belgium v Switzerland
Belgium should win this without much trouble but the odds aren't here... maybe Belgium -1.5 AH @ 2 but i don't know yet. 

Good to have a really good Saturday last weekend with 3 of the 4 National League bets landing. Didn't have as much fortune on the FA Cup front but the next round should bring plenty of opportunities on that front next weekend. This Saturday it is Non-League Day and I urge anyone reading this who can go to a game at the weekend to go and do so especially if you haven't been to watch your local team before. I will be watching Billericay v Gloucester and as much as I fully expect my team to lose I am really interested to see Billericay in action especially from an ante-post perspective as I am sure a few of you have got some fancy prices about them. Hopefully it will be a profitable Non-League Day and I have five bets.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham (National League)
Surely Peter Taylor won't be in the Dagenham hot-seat for too much longer. They had a 4 game unbeaten spell, but apart from that have looked every bit relegation candidates and I don't see Taylor bringing about any improvement and he is the wrong man for the job. Wrexham on the other-hand have their eyes firmly on promotion although I suspect that will be via the play-offs rather than winning the title. Their only defeat in their last 8 games was when I put them up to beat Sutton, but that looks every bit the one off I thought it would be and Dagenham are no Sutton. Skybet are even money if you can get on although the shade of odds on elsewhere is acceptable as well.
Eastleigh v Aldershot (National League)
Slightly risky to want to back a team who have only picked up one point on their travels this season playing against a team who have won 4 on the bounce and are unbeaten in 6, but I think Aldershot are worth backing here. As I highlighted last week Aldershot are an improving side and they dispatched Halifax without too many worries last weekend. I am hoping that they can continue that on their travels and the fact they got a draw at Hartlepool two weeks ago gives me confidence that they can. Eastleigh lost their manager in the week and it might just upset their good run of form. This could be the perfect time to be playing them and the Aldershot players should be full of confidence at the moment. The 61/25 about an away with Marathon is way too big for me.
Halifax v Chesterfield (National League)
Yes I am going to oppose Chesterfield again in the live TV game on BT Sport at Saturday teatime. Yet again they are short price favourites away from home and although we didn't get a result in Chesterfield's last two games as they have drawn them they are a stupid price yet again. Now granted Halifax aren't exactly winning football matches either at the moment, but at home only Hartlepool have beaten them so far this term. Either side of that defeat they have drawn against Leyton Orient and AFC Fylde. It has been 8 games since a win, but they have drawn 5 of them. The two 3-0 defeats have both come on their travels and as pointed out above Aldershot are improving fast. Chesterfield have scored just 3 times in their last 10 games which is pretty shocking really and given Halifax have only scored 7 in that time we could be looking at a pretty dull affair (a bit like most of the games BT have chosen this season as they have made some shocking choices), but Halifax are good value 9/4 with Bet 365 to win the game. Some people might want the draw onside, but I think having a small bet on the no goalscorer at 15/2 (Bet 365) and on 1-1 at 11/2 (Betway and BetVictor) is the best way to cover the win bet and if Halifax win 1-0 via an own goal we have hit the jackpot!
Solihull v Ebbsfleet (National League)
Opposing Ebbsfleet got us a nice profit last weekend and although their away form is better than their home form I am more than happy to take them on again. They have only lost one on their travels, but that came in a heavy 4-1 defeat at Wrexham. Prior to that they had drawn at Dover which sums up their level at the moment. They did beat Dagenham in their last away game, but again that hardly says a lot and this match should be much tougher. Ebbsfleet were poor at home to Harrogate last Saturday and they again continue to look a fair way of the pace. Solihull weren't great themselves last weekend when losing 2-0 at Barnet, but their away performances haven't been as good as their home ones. So far in 7 home games they have conceded just 3 times and lost just the once to Hartlepool. I have put them up in both their last two home victories and I think they can land a 3rd home win on the bounce. 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred looks a big price to me as I would make it an odds on shot.
Chippenham v Dartford (National League South)
As I have mentioned before Dartford look a million miles away from the team who nearly won the league last season, yet they are still being priced up as if they are. They did manage a 1-1 draw against Billericay in their last league away game, but they have lost 3 of their other 5 without scoring a goal and were hammered 4-1 at Oxford City in the FA Cup last Saturday. Again Chippenham are a side who I have written about in recent weeks and although they cost me the FA Cup acca a couple of weeks ago they have been playing well otherwise. They beat Hendon in the FA Cup easily in the week and at home they have won 4 out of five in the league including beating Billericay. Chippenham should be favourites for this and it is crazy that they aren't. BetVictor's 9/5 is a very attractive price.
Wrexham 2.5pts @ Evs with Skybet
Aldershot 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
Halifax 1pt at 9/4 with Bet365 No goalscorer 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Bet365 and 1-1 @ 11/2 with Betway and BetVictor
Solihull 3pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred
Chippenham 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor

It is FA Cup weekend and yet again the bookies have been slow to price those matches up. Bet365 and BetVictor have so I will wait to see if we get any more prices before putting anything up. As it stands I have 4 bets in the National League for Saturday.
Aldershot v Halifax
On the face of it the home side probably look on the short side at 5/4 to win this, but I think they look a fair price to do just that. Gary Waddock hasn't minced his words at times this season, but not surprisingly he has been a bit more upbeat of late and he certainly was after Aldershot had got their first away point of the season at Hartlepool last Saturday. It was a good performance from them and Waddock was right to highlight the fact that the new squad are starting to improve and get things together. As I mentioned in the Maidstone preview last week Aldershot battered Maidstone but still lost in their last home game, but that was actually only their 2nd defeat at home this season and they have won 4 of their 6 home games. That is key for me that despite their poor start to the season that has been pretty much down to their away form rather than their pretty solid home form. Halifax have had some tough away games and draws at Sutton and Wrexham are good efforts, although that Sutton match was a dire game in general. Their only win on their travels remains the opening day win at bottom of the table Braintree and given they only managed 2 shots on target against Bromley they were slightly fortunate to get a point last weekend. I think this game is tougher and with Aldershot solid at home and performances improving I think they can continue their rise up the table here.
Chesterfield v AFC Fylde
The price on Fylde has come in from the silly opening quotes from the bookies which had them as the outsiders for this. The plus is they are unbeaten on the road, but the negative is that they have drawn 6 of their 7 away matches. Strangely given how strong they are going forward at home they can't score on their travels. They have only scored 5 times and 3 of those came in one game at Ebbsfleet. Surely in this game Dave Challinor has to make sure his side are a bit more attacking minded given Chesterfield are making some really poor defensive errors of late. I read a preview last weekend which suggested Chesterfield have defended OK of late, which is just bizarre because as I pointed out last weekend they have certainly not defended OK in recent matches. It has been a comedy of errors really and although they only conceded once against Maidstone it was a bad one to concede. Surely the likes of Danny Rowe are going to be gifted a few chances against a Chesterfield side who don't really look like winning anytime soon. 6/4 is still available with Skybet and Sportingbet and it is still a high enough price for me to want to play.
Dover v Salford
Another team who have shortened up are Salford which again isn't a surprise. Football can make fools of you sometimes, but I just don't see how Dover can get anything out of this game. They have looked a really poor side in most of their games this season and they were especially bad against Barrow last weekend. Maybe the players will raise themselves for this one, but even so they just don't look good enough and manager Chris Kinnear pretty much hinted at that after the game. Salford on the other-hand are threatening to run away with the league and some of the football they have been playing is some of the best I have seen in this division for a few years. They have just got stronger as the season has gone on and they comfortably beat Maidenhead 3-0 last weekend in what could have been a tricky game for them. As long as they don't drop their standards and get complacent they could really batter Dover this weekend. I think at the very least they should cover the -1 handicap and that is a big price at 12/5 (Betfair/Paddy Power) and looks the best bet in the division this weekend.
Ebbsfleet v Harrogate
There was a much improved performance from Ebbsfleet last Saturday, but it did come against Dagenham so how much do we read into it? I do think the signing of Reise Allassani who is a player I know well having been at Dulwich last season is a very good one and he was man of the match in the Dagenham game. The big problem for them though has been their home form and given they play a Harrogate side who aren't really showing any signs of slowing down after their flying start to the season I am happy to take Ebbsfleet on. Harrogate were the first team to defeat Boreham Wood at home last weekend and Wood are always hard to beat at home so that is no mean feat. Skybet and BetVictor are 2/1 about an away win and that is too big for me.
Aldershot 1pt @ 5/4 with BetVictor/William Hill
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet/Sportingbet
Salford -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power
Harrogate 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet/BetVictor

Saturday was much better and pleasing to get a winning Nap at last with Biggleswade. Enfield did the business with ease and Solihull won with the last kick of the game. There isn't a huge amount of games this week, but I like the look of 3 teams all around the even money mark. Given I fancy them all the same strength I am going to just go with a point treble rather than the 3 singles although feel free to play them how you want.
The first team is Chester who host Hereford. Take away Chester's bizarre 8-1 defeat at Blyth and their 3-1 loss to Telford (came after two weeks off so they were rusty), then Chester have been mainly very good so far this season. Saturday they drew 0-0 with a Chorley side still flying at the top of the table and they now host a mangerless Hereford who have only picked up 1 point in their last 6 games. They did come from behind to beat Truro in the FA Cup, but then lost 3-0 to Spennymoor on Saturday. It is hard to see them getting much out of this match and they aren't in a great shape on the pitch at the moment. For some reason Chester are drifiting, but they should be odds on given how these two sides are playing at the moment.
The other two teams both come from the Evo-Stik Northern Premier. Grantham have won 4 of their last 5 and their only dropped points in that spell came when I tipped them up to beat North Ferriby and they blew a 2 goal lead! They have only lost once in the league so far this season and got a 90th minute winner against Whitby on Saturday. Hednesford aren't in great form at the moment having lost 3 of their last 4 and their only win coming against a poor Workington side.
Warrington look a solid bet to see off Mickleover Sports. Warrington went so well last season finishing in 3rd place and I wondered if they would be able to repeat that, but they went to the top of the table after beating ante-post favourites South Shields 3-0 on Saturday. That made it five wins on the bounce and their only defeat came on the opening day of the season. Mickleover's two wins this season have come against North Ferriby and Hednesford which pretty much sums up how good they are. The only danger for me is if Warrington allow their standards to drop after such a good win at the weekend, but they should win this and they should be shorter than a shade of odds on to do so.
The treble pays 6.8/1 with BetVictor.

Cheers nice to have the two strongest bets win as that has been a struggle at times this season and nice to have a last kick of the game winner from Solihull. A good end to a poorish month.

Got to get back to winning ways on Tuesday after what has been a pretty tough month. Even on Tuesday we still had a very late goal go against which stopped the double from landing. Hopefully we can end the month on a high and I have 5 bets.
Havant & Waterlooville v Solihull Moors (National League)
Solihull's away form doesn't quite match the heights of their home form as they have lost 3 and won 3. However those loses came against Fylde, Harrogate and Leyton Orient so you can hardly knock them for losing those games. They have beaten Eastleigh, Barrow and Dover and Saturday's trip is hardly any harder than those. Havant did stop us from landing the double on Tuesday night, but they are still struggling to win games. Their home form isn't terrible, but Solihull are in really good form at the moment and I think they should be favourites for this game so am happy to take Betway's 15/8. I suspect Solihull will continue to be under estimated by the bookies and unless their form takes a turn for the worse then they are likely to remain a decent value bet. 
Leyton Orient v Sutton (National League)
I Tweeted on Tuesday that I think the league will be between Salford and Leyton Orient now. Both sides look a cut above the rest of the league at the moment and crucially neither side are really dropping silly points unlike the teams around them. Sutton have had a very strange last 3 results and how on earth they allowed a terrible Dover to come back from 2 down with 10 men I just don't know. Orient are still yet to lose and I would have them around 4/6 for this game so the even money (Marathon and William Hill) is certainly worth taking. I have been really impressed with the way Orient have been putting away sides of late and in 5 of their last 7 games they have scored at least 3 goals. That is really impressive and I think they can add another 3 points on Saturday.
Maidstone v Chesterfield (National League)
Gary Waddock said that he had never seen such a one sided game that a team has lost after his Aldershot side lost to Maidstone on Tuesday night. It seems new Maidstone manager Harry Wheeler had a game plan of making them really hard to break down and they managed to sneak a goal to win the game 1-0. That is two 1-0 away wins on the bounce for Maidstone and they should make things very hard for a badly out of form Chesterfield back on their own pitch. I was surprised Martin Allen didn't either walk away or get the sack after the 3-1 defeat to Maidenhead on Tuesday. I see no reason to not carry on opposing them especially when they have been put in as favourites again which makes little sense to me, but again it is bookies using the big team mentality instead of what is actually happening on the pitch. Marathon are 9/4 about a home win.
Biggleswade v Redditch (Southern Premier Central)
The best bet of the weekend for me is the home side. Biggleswade are still unbeaten in the league and although they have drawn 5 of their 7 games they have started the season in really good shape. The only downside so far is the fact they surprisingly lost to Chesham in the FA Cup, but what that did mean was they didn't have a game last weekend so have had a bit of extra rest coming into this fixture. Redditch seem in a right mess off the field. Ex manager Paul Davies came out in the press saying that he had to beg players to play in what turned out to be his final game in charge when they lost 5-1 to Coalville. It seems the players hadn't been paid and the chairman certainly seems to be ruining the club. Former assistant Paul Smith has now been given the job and although he has done well at a lower level, this is the first time has been in charge of a side at this high a level. He lost 2-0 to Stratford in his first game in charge and although he has brought in 5 players since he took charge they still don't look a great squad. The home side are 24/25 wuth Marathon and that price looks very fair.
Corinthian Casuals v Enfield Town (Bostik Premier)
I have been really pleased with Enfield's start to the season given I put them up at a big price ante-post. They sit in 3rd place at the moment and they should be able to stay up there. In their last league game a couple of weeks ago they came from 2 down to Lewes to draw 2-2. Both goals came from Billy Bricknell who came of the bench as he was coming back from injury. They are unbeaten in the league still and should be able to beat Corinthian Casuals who are finding themselves a bit outclassed. They won their first league of the season last time, but that came against Harlow who are one off the bottom. Their other 2 points have come against teams around them in the table as well and I think they will continue to struggle against the better sides in the league. Marathon go 143/100 about an away win and that looks a good price.
Solihull 1pt @ 15/8 with Betway
Leyton Orient 2pts @ Evs Marathon/William Hill
Maidstone 1pt @ 9/4 with Marathon
Biggleswade 3pts @ 24/25 with Marathon
Enfield Town 2.5pts @ 143/100 with Marathon

Birmingham vs Ipswich
Well, I'm here once again covering a Birmingham game. The Blues have delivered far more profit than loss for me over the last 9 months so can they give me some cash in this home game against a struggling Ipswich in a 3pm kick-off this Saturday afternoon.
Garry Monk's side appear to be making progress. The ex-Swansea manager has turned his team into a very hard one to beat. The Blues may only be in 17th place but they have only suffered defeat twice this season. It is now 5 games unbeaten in the league and their most recent result was that impressive 2-1 win away to league leaders Leeds.
Paul Hurst is not quite having the same level of success at Ipswich. The Tractor Boys are languishing in 23rd place and it is only goal difference keeping them off the bottom spot. The Suffolk club are without a single win this season and scoring goals is also a problem with Hurst's side failing to hit the net in 4 of their 9 league games so far. The plus side is that they've only suffered one defeat in their last four league games.
A few statistics have me favouring Birmingham for this game. Monk himself has won every single home game he has managed against Ipswich. Furthermore, he's not seen his team concede a single goal in those games. His Blues team are conceding less than a goal a game so there's reason to fancy this happening again here.
Ipswich also have a dismal away record in the Championship over recent times. This season, they have lost all four games on the road and only scored 1 goal during those matches. It is also 8 losses from their last 9 Championship away games. Not a very good omen heading into this latest away match. A solid Birmingham win must be backed at this price.
Birmingham to Win @ 2.04 with MarathonBet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.67 with Blacktype

Saturday was a bit more like it with a superb win for Solihull although Wrexham decided to put in what will probably be their worst performance of the season. The acca was only just denied by an 88th minute equaliser as well. Tuesday sees a full National League fixture list as well as a handful of Evo-Stik Northern Prem games and the FA Cup replays.
Chesterfield v Maidenhead
It looks a trappy night in the National League as there are teams I would love to oppose but some of them are playing each other or the opposition are too short (Aldershot being an example of the latter). I have out Chesterfield up a couple of times during this dreadful run they are on, but they are still winless since winning their first 3 games. They were shocking on Saturday when losing 3-0 to Gateshead at home where they managed just 2 shots during the match. Martin Allen claimed it was the worst performance from any team that he has managed and it wouldn't surprise me if that was true. He has come out and said they have had a meeting with the players and he hopes to get a response from them on Tuesday night. It might happen, but you have to wonder if Allen is actually capable of getting the best out of his players and I wouldn't even go as far to say if they lost this he won't be in the job after the game. Maidenhead's away form does concern me as they have only won once and lost 4 of the other 5 including at Barrow on Saturday. The win was against Braintree and the draw was against Dagenham so that isn't great, but they played well enough on Saturday and I think Alan Devonshire's men will smell blood here. One thing that does worry me is the amount of travelling they will have to do, but I think it's factored into the price and I am happy to take 15/4 about an away win which for me should be shorter.
Barnet v Havant and Solihull v Dagenham
Solihull were superb on Saturday to beat Bromley 5-0 and they now face a struggling Dagenham side who looked awful at Eastleigh on Saturday in the live game. I can't see Peter Taylor being in the job for too much longer as I imagine the new owners will want to get their own man in who can build a better team than the one they have. As mentioned on Saturday Solihull are very strong at home and are making a mockery of their favourites to go down tag. Barnet are in good form at the moment after a slow start to the season and their only loss of late was against top of the table Leyton Orient and even then they held their own for a long period of the match. I think their injury list told that day and they were good on Saturday when drawing against Fylde. Havant got a draw at Ebbsfleet, but the home side under performed again and I'm not sure it says a great deal. I do get the feeling it will click for them at some point, but it is hard to see it being at Barnet who are playing with plenty of confidence at the moment. Both Barnet and Solihull are around about the same price and the double with Marathon pays 5/2 and that looks a decent price.
Maidenhead 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
Barnet/Solihull 1pt double @ 5/2 with Marathon

I'll be at the game and can tell you that Kidderminster have a fairly small squad so there cannot be many changes. It is possible that the two strikers, Chambers and Ironside, are not in the starting XI and perhaps Lee Vaughan will be given a break. However, these player may still be on the bench. Their potential replacements are Dan Bradley (a regular, goal-scoring attacking midfielder/striker) and Kane Richards who has come off the bench several times this season and found the net a couple of times. Vaughan's potential replacement would be Sam Austin at wing back. He is excellent going forward and crosses really well.
Atherstone Town have just been put out of the FA Vase by Coventry Utd and really should be given the runaround on Harriers big, wide pitch. Kiddie's manager, Neil McFarlane, is a very vocal, demanding guy - unlike the passive wet lettuce leaf John Eustace who happily moved to QPR in the close season to be assistant to Steve McLaren (they are well suited). McFarlane will have been furious at Kidderminster's tepid display at Chester on Tuesday when they lost for the first time this season. I suspect there may be a backlash and a very rapid start against today's opposition.
I've backed Kidderminster -2 on the handicap at 7/5 and also HT/FT at 8/13.

Hopefully we won't see a repeat of last Saturday again this season as it was a horrid afternoon. Eastbourne put in their worst performance of the season by a long way and to lose so heavily to a team with 10 men for so long was shocking. Anyway days like that happen in a season so hopefully this weekend I can be back in the money. The National League South/North sides enter the FA Cup this weekend and at this stage no one has priced up any of the matches yet. Should that change and should I fancy something then I will add to this post. It means only the National League has a full fixture list and there are 2 bets I like.
Solihull Moors v Bromley
Bromley have lost 3 games on the bounce now and they drew the game before so that is 4 without a win. To be fair they didn't play too badly against Salford last weekend and going down to 10 men would not have helped their cause. Manager Neil Smith didn't think it was a red card, but from what I saw on the highlights it seemed justified to me. They have played 5 games away from home and have picked up just two points. It could be argued as well that they have been slightly fortunate to get both as they were 2 down in both matches. Against Wrexham it was a 90th minute own goal and against Maidenhead they scored twice in injury time to pick up a draw. Their season so far has certainly backed up my pre-season thoughts that they would struggle to reach the heights of last season. Solihull on the other-hand have looked anything but relegation candidates, which they were short in the betting for. After 11 games they only sit outside of the play-offs on goal difference and although I had my doubts about Tim Flowers as a manager it is a case of so far so good. They were especially strong at home last season and that has carried on this time around. They are the only team to have beaten Wrexham this season and although they lost to Hartlepool 1-0 in their last home game there is nothing wrong with that give Hartlepool are yet to lose away from home. It might be a game of few goals given Solihull have scored 5 and conceded 3 at home so far this season, but they look in much better shape than their opponents and 29/25 with Marathon looks a good price about a home win.
Sutton v Wrexham
Sutton losing 4-0 to Boreham Wood on Tuesday night was one of the most surprising results of the season so far. Given Boreham Wood had only scored twice away from home prior to that and Sutton had on conceded twice twice at home it was not a scoreline anyone would have seen coming. It was Sutton's first loss of the season at home, but although they have beaten Salford at home this season, I do think they have generally been playing better away from home. It was interesting to read Paul Doswell's quotes after the draw against Halifax when he spoke about it being a poor game and that the players were struggling with the busy schedule. Given they have had to play an extra game than Wrexham that is not going to help them here. I really don't understand why Wrexham are as big as 14/5 with Bet365. The price is starting to go and I can see them going off no bigger than 2/1 come 3pm Saturday. Wrexham needed a goalscorer last season and they are now capable of scoring goals. They have 18 so far this season and they looked really good when beating Ebbsfleet 4-1 last Saturday. What is also big for them is the fact they have been really hard to score against and they have conceded just 5 times. They look genuine title contenders and although I do expect some sort of response from Sutton I think Werxham will have too much for them and the price looks massive.
Solihull Moors 2.5pts @ 29/25 with Marathon
Wrexham 2.5pts 14/5 with Bet365 
FA Cup
So Bet365 have priced up some of the FA Cup games. Why they have chosen these over the others I have no idea. BetVictor I think might be pricing more up, but I can't bet with them so haven't looked at what they have done.
Acca
Usually I avoid acca's, but the FA Cup does lend itself to them as you get some complete mis-matches. I have had a bit of success with them over the years and I have come up with a 7 team acca that pays just over 5/1 with Bet365. All the teams are at home apart from the first one Torquay. Lymington couldn't believe their luck when they drew Torquay and after beating Lydney in a replay they get their big day. This game is on the BBC website, but it really should be a one sided affair especially with Gary Johnson not wanting a bad result in just his 2nd game in charge. City Of Liverpool have only lost 1 league game, but it is hard to see them causing Chester too many problems. Chippenham should be able to see off Swindon Supermarine and unbeaten Chorley shouldn't have any issues getting past Leek. Hampton & Richmond are flying at the moment and face a poor side in Burgess Hill who have yet to win in the league this season. Kidderminster could easily put a few past Step 6 side Atherstone Town. Finally Wealdstone should have too much for Great Wakering Rovers.
The other reason I like betting on the FA Cup is you get some big priced shocks, but nothing really appeals in this round so it will just be the acca.
Torquay, Chester, Chippenham, Chorley, Hampton & Richmond, Kidderminster & Wealdstone 1pt acca @ 5.17/1 with Bet365