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Darran

Non-League Predictions > October 6th

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It is FA Cup weekend and yet again the bookies have been slow to price those matches up. Bet365 and BetVictor have so I will wait to see if we get any more prices before putting anything up. As it stands I have 4 bets in the National League for Saturday.

Aldershot v Halifax

On the face of it the home side probably look on the short side at 5/4 to win this, but I think they look a fair price to do just that. Gary Waddock hasn't minced his words at times this season, but not surprisingly he has been a bit more upbeat of late and he certainly was after Aldershot had got their first away point of the season at Hartlepool last Saturday. It was a good performance from them and Waddock was right to highlight the fact that the new squad are starting to improve and get things together. As I mentioned in the Maidstone preview last week Aldershot battered Maidstone but still lost in their last home game, but that was actually only their 2nd defeat at home this season and they have won 4 of their 6 home games. That is key for me that despite their poor start to the season that has been pretty much down to their away form rather than their pretty solid home form. Halifax have had some tough away games and draws at Sutton and Wrexham are good efforts, although that Sutton match was a dire game in general. Their only win on their travels remains the opening day win at bottom of the table Braintree and given they only managed 2 shots on target against Bromley they were slightly fortunate to get a point last weekend. I think this game is tougher and with Aldershot solid at home and performances improving I think they can continue their rise up the table here.

Chesterfield v AFC Fylde

The price on Fylde has come in from the silly opening quotes from the bookies which had them as the outsiders for this. The plus is they are unbeaten on the road, but the negative is that they have drawn 6 of their 7 away matches. Strangely given how strong they are going forward at home they can't score on their travels. They have only scored 5 times and 3 of those came in one game at Ebbsfleet. Surely in this game Dave Challinor has to make sure his side are a bit more attacking minded given Chesterfield are making some really poor defensive errors of late. I read a preview last weekend which suggested Chesterfield have defended OK of late, which is just bizarre because as I pointed out last weekend they have certainly not defended OK in recent matches. It has been a comedy of errors really and although they only conceded once against Maidstone it was a bad one to concede. Surely the likes of Danny Rowe are going to be gifted a few chances against a Chesterfield side who don't really look like winning anytime soon. 6/4 is still available with Skybet and Sportingbet and it is still a high enough price for me to want to play.

Dover v Salford

Another team who have shortened up are Salford which again isn't a surprise. Football can make fools of you sometimes, but I just don't see how Dover can get anything out of this game. They have looked a really poor side in most of their games this season and they were especially bad against Barrow last weekend. Maybe the players will raise themselves for this one, but even so they just don't look good enough and manager Chris Kinnear pretty much hinted at that after the game. Salford on the other-hand are threatening to run away with the league and some of the football they have been playing is some of the best I have seen in this division for a few years. They have just got stronger as the season has gone on and they comfortably beat Maidenhead 3-0 last weekend in what could have been a tricky game for them. As long as they don't drop their standards and get complacent they could really batter Dover this weekend. I think at the very least they should cover the -1 handicap and that is a big price at 12/5 (Betfair/Paddy Power) and looks the best bet in the division this weekend.

Ebbsfleet v Harrogate

There was a much improved performance from Ebbsfleet last Saturday, but it did come against Dagenham so how much do we read into it? I do think the signing of Reise Allassani who is a player I know well having been at Dulwich last season is a very good one and he was man of the match in the Dagenham game. The big problem for them though has been their home form and given they play a Harrogate side who aren't really showing any signs of slowing down after their flying start to the season I am happy to take Ebbsfleet on. Harrogate were the first team to defeat Boreham Wood at home last weekend and Wood are always hard to beat at home so that is no mean feat. Skybet and BetVictor are 2/1 about an away win and that is too big for me.

Aldershot 1pt @ 5/4 with BetVictor/William Hill

AFC Fylde 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet/Sportingbet

Salford -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power

Harrogate 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet/BetVictor

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FA cup bets.

Have no time for now to put any meat on the bones but I have a 6 fold which pays nearly 11/2 with BetVictor and about 5/1 with Hills plus one possible upset.

Chorley to beat Peterborough Sports

Brackley Town to beat Marine

Slough to beat Bristol Manor Farm

Billericay to beat Whitehawk

Torquay to beat Brightlingsea Regent

Woking to beat AFC Kempston

1pt Acca

Kidsgrove to beat Workington 1pt at 14/5 with Hills

Edited by Darran

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Barnet vs Solihull Moors (1) -0.25 1.85 1u

Barnet were marginally beaten by Wrexham, but it could be said a draw would have been fair. Solihull Moors were expected to do the deed over the Hawks with much to spare, but that wasn't the case as they laboured to a win, in which the Hawks had more chances to win it. Barnet should edge this.

Ebbsfleet vs Harrogate (2) +0.25 1.81 1u

Ebbsfleet takes a convincing win against the Daggers into this match, however considering their home victories have been against lesser sides, I see Harrogate being able to at least nick a draw this line ie generous enough.

 

 

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Maidenhead vs Leyton (2) 1.91 1u

 

Some changes for Maidenhead, big miss is regular attacker Clifton and reg mid Upward, with both missing they are much weaker. Leyton will need to react to their first loss, lineup is good with just the one change.

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On 4.10.2018 at 6:59 PM, Darran said:

 

Aldershot 1pt @ 5/4 with BetVictor/William Hill

AFC Fylde 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet/Sportingbet

Salford -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power

Harrogate 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet/BetVictor

Great job Darran!

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