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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 22 - October 28

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ATP Vienna

Milos Raonic vs. Jurgen Melzer 

=> Jurgen Melzer @ 6.10 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Jurgen Melzer will play his last singles tournament next week in Vienna, he will call it career in singles competition afterwards but he wants to play doubles competition only in the future. His last tournament will be a home tournament in Vienna, his home town where he was born and lives AND where he played his first ATP match in 1999. It will be some special kind of atmosphere for sure as the tournament officials are planning some things for him and i expect a last good tournament from Melzer who definitely still has it, i read an interview today where he said that he is feeling fine and his body is working well right now and he wants to finish singles with a bang and i tink he might can do that as his opponent Raonic was in really bad shape recently losing to McDonald and Pospisil with average performances. I have the strange feeling that Raonic is looking forward to the end of the season. Expect some close sets as Melzer knows to hold serve, has good variety with serve & volley and is experienced enough.

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Jurgen Melzer to beat Milos Raonic at 6.09 with Pinnacle

Fully agree with @opole on this, the odds are just too juicy.

Marco Cecchinato to beat Henri Laaksonen at 1.68 with Unibet

Yannick Mertens to beat Harry Bourchier at 1.56 with Pinnacle

These two picks aren't really about backing Cecchinato and Mertens, even though they aren't bad players by any stretch of imagination. It's just that I really don't rate their opponents at all. Laaksonen has been a mess for quite a while now, he doesn't have what it takes to compete on the main tour these days really, while Bourchier doesn't have what it takes to compete in Challengers imo, he's a futures-level guy all things considered.

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Jurgen Melzer to beat Milos Raonic @ 5.6 with Heritage

Marton Fucsovics to beat Felix Auger Alliasime @ 1.65 with Heritage

Denis Shapovalov to beat Marin Cilic @ 2.8 with Heritage

Ryan Harrison to beat Marius Copil @ 2.4 with Heritage

Dennis Novak  to beat Karen Khachanov @ 4.75 with Heritage (backup Austrian underdog if Melzer fails us)

Best of luck Gentleman and Ladies .. I have positive units on official plays listed with Punters Lounge tennis.. I am not tracking them, but all plays are valued at the same unit price. 

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Grigor to win his quarter @ 3.00 with bet365

Cant believe i am saying this, but i really think Dimitrov has a real shot at winning this event. All the big names are missing except Thiem maybe. Grigor has to eliminate Kukushkin, Kudla/Rublev, and Fognini (most probably).I think his quarter final match is a given here and i hope he finds his range by then.So, as i can see it, Grigor @ 3.00 to beat Fognini who has been really poor after losing the final in tie break a few weeks ago? Yes,please.

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Challenger Traralgon

Aleksandar Vukic vs. Tung-Lin Wu

=> Aleksandar Vukic @ 2.16 Sbobet stake: 5/10

I do rate Vukic actually as a pretty decent player. He is playing his best tennis obviously in Australia at those home tournaments. He played college tennis for Illinois and finished his senior year in 2018, i fully expect him to have breakthrough season in 2019 as i think he has all the strengths to reach a solid Top 200/150 ranking. I watched him at the beginning of the season in Sydney and he played some decent stuff there vs. quality opponents like Berankis, Lajovic or Feli Lopez. He should have beaten Lopez there but lost due to lacking of experience and showing some nerves. Tomorrow he will face a decent prospect but i really think he should go past Wu with a good performance. Wu is very inconsistent with making many many errors from time to time and Vukic is playing at home, he should add some extra % on his performance. For me he is definitely the favorite.

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I like the way Vukic plays alot .. hopefully my book has a line for this one. Nope they don't 

Anyway , I'll be tailing this play when it becomes available..  Ty bro .. appreciate it .. I think he will win also on a quick overview .. also i am not familiar with his opponent 

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I make mistake betting with atp men's underdogs here .. I really hope Melzer wins to save.   Womens tennis always a safer play for underdog as we can see in Singapore .. Yes, I will not be surprised at all if Copil wins at this point.. 

I am done for this year .. Sorry if anybody lose money on my tips .. I'm very dissapointed in poor betting .. Shapovalov clearly out of form, and tired from long season.. See you guys next year, and good luck on Melzer either way..  

Edited by money44

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On 21/10/2018 at 11:49 AM, opole said:

ATP Vienna

Milos Raonic vs. Jurgen Melzer 

=> Jurgen Melzer @ 6.10 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Jurgen Melzer will play his last singles tournament next week in Vienna, he will call it career in singles competition afterwards but he wants to play doubles competition only in the future. His last tournament will be a home tournament in Vienna, his home town where he was born and lives AND where he played his first ATP match in 1999. It will be some special kind of atmosphere for sure as the tournament officials are planning some things for him and i expect a last good tournament from Melzer who definitely still has it, i read an interview today where he said that he is feeling fine and his body is working well right now and he wants to finish singles with a bang and i tink he might can do that as his opponent Raonic was in really bad shape recently losing to McDonald and Pospisil with average performances. I have the strange feeling that Raonic is looking forward to the end of the season. Expect some close sets as Melzer knows to hold serve, has good variety with serve & volley and is experienced enough.

:$ good point! i didnt consider that when i bet against Melzer. It's done, so lets see :ok

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I know I said I was leaving, but i do have something else to say, and it looks like I will clear profit today because Raonic in medical timeout and hitting amateur backhands all match.

CzechPunter, Opole, and everyone else here, Milos doesn't look good, and all three of us picked against him.  

Melzer was my top bet coming in today before I even saw your guys post.. Now here is my question for you: at some point I considered a parlay with Melzer and Krajinovic(two players big payout) I could not bet against Roger for some reason in Basel, but he looks really worn down vs Coric in Shanghai.  I think Krajinovic may want a chance to beat Roger before he retires.. I am now seriously considering Krajinovic for a large straight bet..  I saw one of Rogers practice sessions on Basel yesterday, and he looked awful.  I assumed he's going to improve in a couple days indoors before his match, but maybe thats not true.  Krajinovic has some very impressive results indoors the last couple of years..  And I believe that he is easily the second best Serbian, and its not even close.  Could really use your guys opinion here, and I think we are all gonna make alot of money on this play..  I will post it official when and if my bet is placed

Congrats to All Melzer bettors and tennis writers here .. It was a fantastic collaboration, and a clear choice.. Milos playing on tour for 50 years, and never learned how to hit a backhand better than a highschool player 

 

Edited by money44

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On 21.10.2018 at 5:49 PM, opole said:

ATP Vienna

Milos Raonic vs. Jurgen Melzer 

=> Jurgen Melzer @ 6.10 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Jurgen Melzer will play his last singles tournament next week in Vienna, he will call it career in singles competition afterwards but he wants to play doubles competition only in the future. His last tournament will be a home tournament in Vienna, his home town where he was born and lives AND where he played his first ATP match in 1999. It will be some special kind of atmosphere for sure as the tournament officials are planning some things for him and i expect a last good tournament from Melzer who definitely still has it, i read an interview today where he said that he is feeling fine and his body is working well right now and he wants to finish singles with a bang and i tink he might can do that as his opponent Raonic was in really bad shape recently losing to McDonald and Pospisil with average performances. I have the strange feeling that Raonic is looking forward to the end of the season. Expect some close sets as Melzer knows to hold serve, has good variety with serve & volley and is experienced enough.

Melzer wins 76(6) 75 :cow

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CzechPunter - I do not trust him either at the same rate as you.. He's not a player I have a history of betting alot of even winning on .. but this is almost a strictly fade of Roger's poor form, and at that price... I want to discuss the possibility of it happening.. This is also Rogers first match indoors, which adds a variable such as bad weather in other sports that can neutralize the playing field. 

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CzechPunter - I do not trust him either at the same rate as you.. He's not a player I have a history of betting alot of even winning on .. but this is almost a strictly fade of Roger's poor form, and at that price... I want to discuss the possibility of it happening.. This is also Rogers first match indoors, which adds a variable such as bad weather in other sports that can neutralize the playing field. 

I will say that I believe there is a chance Krajinovic plays an excellent match in phenomenal form, and then gets tired next round and loses, or possibly advances to the third round if he does win... Krajinovic had a really slow year, but he has steadily been coming back into physical condition in my opinion. 

Edited by money44

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My opinion is that you're overrating Federer's struggles. It's still Roger and it's still in Basel, his performances against Medvedev and Nishikori weren't bad at all, I just don't see it happening. Raonic's woes are much different than Federer's problems. Krajinovic is at around 8.00, that's 12.5 percent, I don't see his chances as greater than that.

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Czech Punter , you have a point, and I think there's a good chance you are correct.. I am rating the match as 20 % minimum for Krajinovic wins.  Roger is really slowing down, and I think he wants to play London, Paris, Australian open one more time, and retire after Australian open.. Im not familiar with players retiring after the first major, but Roger is an exceptional person and could go against that trend.  I also think that Roger is going to have decent showings in atleast 2 of those tournaments. 

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All possible, but I remember him saying that he wants to play one more French Open for fun as well, so I'd say that he's going to retire at the end of the season in which he plays that tournament regardless of other factors. I don't think he cares about Paris all that much, I wouldn't be surprised to see him preferring Basel honestly. He picked up some sort of a hand injury at the start of the grass court season, but what exactly are we criticizing him for? Since losing against Anderson, he's lost only against Djokovic, Millman, and Coric, I can't really interpret that as "really slowing down". I don't fancy him to win another Grand Slam, but I honestly think that the public is too harsh on him. The only really bad thing in his form is the loss against Millman, but my opinion on that is that he knew that he wouldn't be able to compete with the best players in the US Open and just didn't have the will to fight once the tide started to turn. He was 56-6 last year and he's 45-7 this year, that's INSANELY good, people were talking about how he's gone on so many times, but, objectively, this year has been good for him even according to his standards.

Now about Krajinovic - he had one good indoors tournament in his life, he's 14-15 in this season, he won just three games against Roger in Indian Wells in March, he won just three games against DelPo in Beijing, no big wins to be seen anywhere, has only played one qualifying match in Basel before. Miracles happen, but I, for one, can't see any tells that one could happen here.

That said, if your gut says Krajinovic has a chance, by all means go for it and good luck. The above is just my take on things.

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I don't believe its true CP .. because Krajinovic made round of 16 in 2 notable indoor tournaments, and QF in two indoor tournaments also beating simon/sousa, and taking in form pouille to the full extension 7-6(5),3-6,6-4.  Krajinovic will have a week of rest coming out of an indoor tournament which he had a reasonable performance and probably will put more effort to a prestigious event as Basel.  This is a clear advantage for Krajinovic with 2 indoor matches under his belt coming in to this match similar to how Copil dismantled Harrison.  Not quite the same in a different tournament but definitely applies. 

Edited by money44
I will update , hope hear from others

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OK - I have made a decision to respect your knowledge and advice CzechPunter

I have also seen more updated form of Rogers practice with Stan, and is definitely improved. I will not be betting on Krajinovic, and I am very comofortable with that decision whether he wins or loses.. Appreciate your help no matter what happens. 

In terms of the larger size underdogs heading into the next rounds of Basel and Vienna.. I've posted Novak officially as a back in case Melzer lost.. I am struggling to pull the trigger on this one, but I see it as a possibility.  Then we have Bemelmans, and finally Copil.  I am thinking about waiting to place on Copil, because I watched match vs Shapovalov, and Canadian was terrible... i didn't see much of the Copil match but he looked fine, and I was not very impressed with Cilic.  So I'm probably going to hold off for now on betting, and when I place something then I will post it, and I look forward to seeing your guys bets also for tomorrow.. 

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Federer pulled out of Paris by the way. A sign he is clearly focusing on London as he hasn't won the finals since 2011 and had some bad luck there in the last couple of years.

Federers record in Basel is really really good, 42-3 overall and only losing THREE matches in his whole career there.

I don't think Krajinovic is the right opponent to make it to 4...

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As the market is very very small and odds already dropped huge i won't give a stake but i can only say that there is still some value on Leopold Zima at Germany F16.

Ladbrokes has @ 3.5 and William Hill @ 2.75.

If you have one of those books you should take the bet.

I think Zima should be the favorite. He is a superb prospect in Germany with a very good junior career. He should outplay an average opponent like Julian Onken easily in my opinion although those young prospects do have their weak days but i think he should be the favorite here.

It's a pity the market is small and most of the bookmakers have low limits for those kind of tournaments as you can find a lot of value there overall.

 

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18 hours ago, opole said:

Challenger Traralgon

Aleksandar Vukic vs. Tung-Lin Wu

=> Aleksandar Vukic @ 2.16 Sbobet stake: 5/10

I do rate Vukic actually as a pretty decent player. He is playing his best tennis obviously in Australia at those home tournaments. He played college tennis for Illinois and finished his senior year in 2018, i fully expect him to have breakthrough season in 2019 as i think he has all the strengths to reach a solid Top 200/150 ranking. I watched him at the beginning of the season in Sydney and he played some decent stuff there vs. quality opponents like Berankis, Lajovic or Feli Lopez. He should have beaten Lopez there but lost due to lacking of experience and showing some nerves. Tomorrow he will face a decent prospect but i really think he should go past Wu with a good performance. Wu is very inconsistent with making many many errors from time to time and Vukic is playing at home, he should add some extra % on his performance. For me he is definitely the favorite.

One of the sharpest tips I've come across on the internet.. I've been extremely impressed your tennis knowledge, just reading some of your writing today.  This is a special place with very talented ppl, and I hope we can form an alliance to win alot of money from sportsbooks.  

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2 hours ago, money44 said:

One of the sharpest tips I've come across on the internet.. I've been extremely impressed your tennis knowledge, just reading some of your writing today.  This is a special place with very talented ppl, and I hope we can form an alliance to win alot of money from sportsbooks.  

Thanks mate!:ok

Vukic was playing horrendous, trailing 46 35 and also wasting a 5-1 lead in the tiebreaker to 5-6 (still won it 8-6) + losing 0-3 in the third set, it was quite an inconsistent match from BOTH players and the more inconsistent player lost in the end but this time we had some luck to get through.

I think the tennis section here is quite good with some really good tipsters, i hope it will work out like that as you said to have some good profit during the next weeks and of course next season.

 

For today i think it's quite a hard day to bet.

Vienna looks drained. I thought about taking Fognini as he has some small chances to qualify for the ATP Finals but his odds are not worth a risk as it is Fognini who easily can clown away such a match.

I also like Marterer to beat Medvedev in Basel but the problem is Marterer is in a slump for months now and hasn't won a match since August 1st on clay. The match vs. Ymer last week in Stockholm was quite a really weak match with Marterer blowing away a 5-3 lead in the third set and losing it 5-7. Looked awful there in the end.

Nothing really catches my attention today tbh. Challenger market also looks tough to bet on today.

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21 hours ago, opole said:

Challenger Traralgon

Aleksandar Vukic vs. Tung-Lin Wu

=> Aleksandar Vukic @ 2.16 Sbobet stake: 5/10

I do rate Vukic actually as a pretty decent player. He is playing his best tennis obviously in Australia at those home tournaments. He played college tennis for Illinois and finished his senior year in 2018, i fully expect him to have breakthrough season in 2019 as i think he has all the strengths to reach a solid Top 200/150 ranking. I watched him at the beginning of the season in Sydney and he played some decent stuff there vs. quality opponents like Berankis, Lajovic or Feli Lopez. He should have beaten Lopez there but lost due to lacking of experience and showing some nerves. Tomorrow he will face a decent prospect but i really think he should go past Wu with a good performance. Wu is very inconsistent with making many many errors from time to time and Vukic is playing at home, he should add some extra % on his performance. For me he is definitely the favorite.

Vukic wins 46 76(6) 64

as i wrote, very lucky win but Wu was completly out of his mind spraying errors all over the place...

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    • 335 Redcar. LILLE  12/1 BET365.
    • So we are into the final week of Hunter Chases for 2019 and it is the first of two at Cartmel on Bank Holiday Monday. Absainte heads the betting as I type and she looked quite progressive earlier in the season winning her first 3 races on the bounce and ran some good times in the process. Bit disappointing at Witton Castle on Easter Sunday when losing at 4/7, but she was dismounted after the finish so I suspect something didn't feel quite right. I thought she ran a good race at Cheltenham until getting tired late on behind Kalabaloo and Theatre Territory and she has decent claims in this. Stage One has won twice at Peper Harow which isn't that dissimilar to Cartmel which is probably why Alan Hill is sending him here for this. He hasn't beaten a great deal though in his two wins this season and was well beaten the two times before his last win. This shorter trip will probably suit better than 3m as well although there is plenty of competition for the lead which won't help. Gina is back on Dee Star having won on him two starts back at Bitterley when losing his maiden tag. He didn't quite see it out in the Heart Of All England at Hexham earlier in the month and that suggests this trip will suit better. I just don't think that form is overly strong though and I think he will have to improve again to take this. Fair Exchange ran really well in this race last year to finish 2nd and was also 2nd in a novice chase here. His point form this season though has been very in and out and he has had 8 runs since he made his seasonal debut in March at Didmarton. The win on Easter Saturday at Sandon was a fair effort, but he's been beaten 3 times since then. Clearly this trip and track suit and his trainer certainly knows the time of day, but another who likes to make the running. Dressedforsuccess will be much bigger than the current 7/1 come race time and it was a poor maiden he won last month. Fateh was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow albeit along way behind the front two. This shorter trip will probably suit better though and he will likely sit in behind the fast pace. Only 6yo so certainly scope for the improvement which he does need to find. It doesn't make a great deal of sense why Al Le Gone is a much bigger price than Dee Star given there was only 2L between them at Hexham. He ran like this trip would suit better, but he is still a maiden and his prominent placing that night is another reason why I don't think the form is that strong.  Mickey Miller has already been beaten by Absainte this season. Mahlers Star has been nibbled already at really big prices and I guess they are going on his placed form in 2017. He certainly looks like he doesn't stay 3m when he has pulled up in both points, one in 2018 and one a month ago. I guess he could come on for the run, but this is likely to be a strong test at the trip and he might not see it out. Bedford Forrest was 2nd in this in 2017, but is hard to fancy otherwise and Baile Liam looks to have no chance. That just leaves the main selection Teeton Power. Now she does like to make the running and the one concern is the amount of front runners in the race, but I think she is good enough to be able to see off the other pace rivals and as Tabitha showed yet again at Kelso on Sunday she is good from the front. For me she has the best form in the race. Last season she was a good 2nd at Cheltenham to Popaway when simply not lasting home and it was the same in the John Corbet Cup. This season she slipped up on her return and then just held on from Sand Blast, who granted didn't really boost the form on Tuesday, but that was basically her first run of the season. She pulled up last time, but was dismounted and I suspect not all was right with the horse. Trip and track should be ideal for her and if she can see off the other front runners I think she can make all. In my view she should be the favourite. So Teeton Power is the main bet. Behind her it's quite tight as Fair Exchange and Fateh could be capable of running big races and although I am not huge on Stage One's form he should enjoy the track. I will save on Absainte though who doesn't look like she has to lead and has looked progressive this season. Teeton Power 2pts @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor Absainte 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and BetVictor
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