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UEFA Nations League Predictions > Oct 11th - 17th

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It's the next round of UEFA Nations League matches this coming international break. The first set of matches proved to be thoroughly enjoyable and a lot more productive than meaningless friendlies. It'll be interesting to see how the different nations approach these next batch of games. Let us know your tips for these games. I'll post up the odds for the second half of matches when they become available later in the week. :ok

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My picks so far, first twos are the bigger bets : 

First, Belgium and Portugal to finish first of their group is priced at 1.3 and 1.5 respectively, which makes for a nice double of 1.95, given that there is a big gap between these teams and their group, it would be a shame not to take it. You can add France as well for a tasty 2.7 triple, but 1.9 is good enough for me. Results in a month, obviously place it before thursday evening. 

Poland v Portugal
Woop-di-doo, Portugal bringing the value again. Portugal to win at 2.45 is very generous. I hope i'm not selling Poland short here, i don't think i've seen them play recently, but their past record isn't really great... and Portugal blew away Italy, though with their lack of finishing game, you can't really see it on the scoreline. But Portugal is IMO in another league and should win comfortably. I might go for a bigger stake on the DNB here at 1.65 because of the aforementioned finishing problem. 

Belarus v Luxembourg
I haven't see these teams plays, and i don't usually bet on numbers, but Luxembourg just won 4-0 against Moldava when Belarus tied against them. So i think that you can do worse than putting a few quids on Luxembourg to win at 7.5. DNB at 3.25 is ok as well. Small stake. 

Denmark v Ireland
Another bet on numbers, but Denmark looked good defensively in the WC and looking at Ireland recent record i don't see them scoring a lot against the danish, so a small-to-medium stake on Denmark DNB @ 1.6 seems a decent choice. 

Belgium v Switzerland
Belgium should win this without much trouble but the odds aren't here... maybe Belgium -1.5 AH @ 2 but i don't know yet. 

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Estonia - Finland
12.10.2018 at 21:45

Pretty good value on Finland here on Friday tomorrow IMO. Estonia is without their captain and best defender Ragnar Klavan, also missing Karol Mets (who is an important part of defensive duties) and Mattias Käit (who is young, but one of the best offensive players for Estonia). Estonian main creative force is Vassiliev, who has been playing for Polish 6th league for a while now due to some problems with his home club Piast Gliwice. Last round of the national team games he was still the best player for Estonia (which shows his class but also the level of Estonia really). 
Estonia does not have offensive power and lacking creativity, we do not have a proper striker either. All forwards are just running around without really knowing what to do or even more often - the ball just doesn't reach them. Adding all this up, it's hard to see Estonia creating many chances, let alone scoring goals. 

On the other hand, Finland is better overall really. They defend better and attack with more ideas and they have a classy striker in Teemu Pukki. I really can't see Estonia getting anything from this match. Last month Finland only won 1-0 at home, but this time Estonia is missing several important defensive players and I expect Finland to be a bit more clinical also ... something like 2-0 is my call

My main pick: Finland win @ 2,25 (Bet365)
Alternative pick/small stakes: Teemu Pukki to score 2 or more @ 17 (Bet365)

Edited by dinero

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Nations League

Portugal has under 2.5 goals in their last 4 international matches.
Poland has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 international matches.
Israel lost their last 4 home international matches.
Serbia scored in last 8 away international matches.
Malta has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 away international matches.
Kosovo has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 international matches.

You can find interesting 34 Football Betting Streaks for 11.10.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-11-10-2018-11592

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UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE – MISSINGS

Israel v Scotland

Israel: Ofir Marciano (11/0 g), Eran Zahavi (40/6 m), Manor Solomon (1/0 f), Almog Cohen (24/0 m), Maor Melikson (25/3 m), Tal Ben Haim (29/5 f)

Scotland: Ryan Fraser (4/0 m), Grant Hanley (29/1 d), Russell Martin (29/0 d), Kenny McLean (5/0 m), Matt Ritchie (16/3 m), Callum Paterson (9/0 m), Ryan Jack (2/0 m), Jamie Murphy (2/0 f), Leigh Griffiths (19/4 f), Matt Phillips (12/1 f)

 

Lithuania v Romania

Lithuania: Tomas Mikuckis (22/0 d), Vaidas Slavickas (16/0 d), Ovidijus Verbickas (12/1 m), Simonas Paulius (10/0 m)

Romania: Bogdan Lobonț (86/0 g, retired), Vlad Chiricheș (54/0 d), Dragoș Grigore (33/0 d), Cosmin Moți (12/0 d), Mihai Bălașa (6/0 d), Constantin Budescu (12/5 m), Mihai Pintilii (43/1 m), Eric Bicfalvi (6/0 m), Gheorghe Grozav (27/5 m), Ciprian Deac (16/3 m), Florin Andone (21/1 f), Alexandru Băluță (5/1 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Israel vs Scotland

The UEFA Nations League returns this month and it's a crucial clash here between Israel and Scotland in this 7:45pm kick-off tonight at the Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa with both teams keen to get a win for very different reasons in just their second matches in League C Group 1 of this competition.

Israel continued their awful run of results when they lost their opening match 1-0 away to Albania. It is now just 1 win in their last 10 matches. Their FIFA ranking is in freefall and if they fail to win this game then they could be staring League D in the face. It's not a great time to be a fan of the Israeli national football team.

Scotland are more hit and miss than Marko Arnautovic when he's through on goal. The appointment of Alex McLeish as head coach hardly inspired confidence after the dark days of the Gordon Strachan era. However, the 2-0 win at home against Albania last month was the perfect remedy after a run of three defeats on the bounce where they failed to score a single goal.

Now, it remains to be seen if McLeish can build on that win. Playing away out in Israel is a completely different proposition to playing in front of a partisan Hampden Park. That being said, they are playing an Israel side that hasn't won at home since scraping a 2-1 win against Liechtenstein on 9th October, 2016. That's more than two years without a win. It's a monkey Israel will want to get off their shoulder.

The Scots have a habit of turning in some impressive away performances over recent years against the so-called weaker opposition. A 1-0 win versus Hungary, 3-0 win against Lithuania, 5-1 win against Malta, 1-0 win versus Czech Republic, and 6-0 win against Gibraltar have all come in the past couple of years. It's their away form against the slightly more capable sides that is more disconcerting. 3-0 defeats to France, England, and Slovakia still leave a sour taste in the mouth.

Backing Scotland to win here might be naive but it seems to most logical option given the odds. Israel haven't even scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches. This Israel side isn't greatly changed from the one Wales destroyed a few years back and that was one of the easiest away matches we've had in recent memory. They were woeful. Head coach Andi Herzog doesn't appear to have revolutionised the side so it could be another sad night for Israeli football.

Scotland to Win @ 2.60 with Bet365

Draw HT/ Scotland FT @ 6.15 with MarathonBet

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im on scotland to win here 

Israel as country dont care for football , they love to watch big  football  leagues yes :) but when it comes to play they are losers and even the local league is kind of dirty , very hard to trust players here 

even weather now ok in Haifa , I was last night there drink beer , weather was great and will help scotland 

i think scotalnd win closer but small bet for two reason 

1- israel is jinxed team 

2- scotland not big team to trust with good stake

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I was going to mention Scotland earlier in the week when the odds for the away win was 2.95, it's been decreasing all week but I still think there's a little bit of value in the current odds of around 2.50.

It's not something you hear said very often about Scotland but they were on a completely different level to Albania last month, who previously beat Israel. There's a good young crop of players come through recently who make up the nucleus of the squad and I'd like to think they'll be too strong for a really poor Israel, even away from home.

Scotland @ 2.75 ( I got on yesterday ).

 

Edited by allyhibs

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Nations League

Croatia has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home international matches.
Belgium scored in last 15 home international matches.
Greece has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home international matches.
England has under 2.5 goals in their last 6 away international matches.
Croatia scored in last 7 home international matches.
Northern Ireland allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 4 away international matches.
Austria allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 4 international matches.
England scored in last 3 international matches.

You can find interesting 51 Football Betting Streaks for 12.10.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-12-10-2018-11595

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1 minute ago, MangoTheThird said:

Here's my 2 cents worth:

 

Japan to beat Panama
Qatar to beat Ecuador
Saudi Arabia to beat Brazil
Belgium to beat Switzerland
Croatia to lose to England
Belarus to beat Luxembourg
Moldova to beat San Marino
Greece to beat Hungary

 

Come on England!!!!

Typo in one prediction. Can you see which one?

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1 hour ago, MangoTheThird said:

Typo in one prediction. Can you see which one?

I don't know. I mean, Saudi Arabia to beat Brazil seems fairly reasonable! :lol

@allyhibs, have a word with McLeish mate. What the hell are Scotland playing at? Almost as bad as the Welsh defending yesterday. I forgot that football coaching 101 says "leave Sergio Ramos completely unmarked at a set piece in your own final third!".

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Austria vs Northern Ireland

The UEFA Nations League continues tonight with a vital clash between Austria and Northern Ireland in a 7:45pm kick-off at the Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Vienna. This result will play a big role in what happens in League B Group C with Bosnia-Herzegovina watching on with interest.

Austria are a side surprisingly full of quality players with the likes of Watford's Sebastian Prodl, Bayern Munich's David Alaba, former Tottenham centre back Kevin Wimmer, RB Leipzig's Marcel Sabitzer, and West Ham's Marko Arnautovic in their squad. It's shocking that they haven't performed better in recent qualifiers. The disappointing 1-0 loss away to Bosnia-Herzegovina adding to their fans undoubted frustration.

Northern Ireland are at the opposite end of the scale. Only Jonny Evans, Craig Cathcart, and Steven Davis ply their trade in the top flight of English football. The majority of the rest of their squad are Championship and SPL players. Some players in the squad are even playing at a lower level than that. Their opening day 2-1 loss at home to Bosnia-Herzegovina dented their hopes of qualifying for League A almost straight away.

Results for Franco Foda's side have been fairly decent over the past year. They might only have been friendlies but it's still shown that they can go a step better than their recent qualification efforts. The past year has seen Austria defeat the likes of Serbia, Uruguay, Russia, Germany, and Sweden. Can they return to winning ways here?

Something just doesn't feel right about Northern Ireland now. Michael O'Neill's contract extension doesn't appear to have had the desired effect. Ever since O'Neill extended his contract with the national team back in January of this year, his side have been inconsistent. Wins against South Korea and Israel have been countered by defeats to Bosnia-Herzegovina and Costa Rica. The 0-0 draw with Panama hardly won plaudits either.

This is a massive test for Northern Ireland. Wales found it hard getting a point out in Austria during the 2018 World Cup qualifiers and, if I'm honest, they were the best team that we saw at home in our group. I can see them taking all three points here. Northern Ireland will do their best to shut the game down but Austria are a strong team and quite underrated on the international scene right now.

Austria have only lost 2 of their last 11 matches and that is compared to Northern Ireland not having a win in their last 5 competitive games. Vienna is not the easiest place to go and get a result at the best of times. Northern Ireland at their peak under O'Neill I could see getting something. Not the way they're playing right now. A narrow Austrian win.

Austria HT/FT @ 2.50 with Betfred

Austria to Win to Nil @ 2.30 with BetVictor

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Nations League

Czech Republic has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 away international matches.
Macedonia scored over 1.5 goals in last 5 home international matches.
Cyprus lost their last 7 away international matches.
Slovenia has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 away international matches.
Norway has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 international matches.
Gibraltar lost their last 6 away international matches.

You can find interesting 71 Football Betting Streaks for 13.10.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-13-10-2018-11598

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16 hours ago, MangoTheThird said:

Well I got all but the England game correct (as long as you are giving me the Brazil typo!). Why's it lways England that lets us down!

✔ Greece 1 v Hungary 0    
✔ Belarus 1 v Luxembourg 0
✔ Belgium 2 v Switzerland 1 
✔ Moldova 2 v San Marino 0 
✘ Croatia 0 v England 0    
✔ Saudi Arabia 0 v Brazil 2
✔ Qatar 4 v Ecuador 3    
✔ Japan 3 v Panama 0   
✔ Mexico 3 v Costa Rica 2 

 

Here's my 2 cents worth:

 

Japan to beat Panama
Qatar to beat Ecuador
Saudi Arabia to beat Brazil
Belgium to beat Switzerland
Croatia to lose to England
Belarus to beat Luxembourg
Moldova to beat San Marino
Greece to beat Hungary

 

Come on England!!!!

 

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Peru to beat Chile
Slovakia to beat Czech Republic
Latvia to beat Kazakhstan
Georgia to beat Andorra
Armenia to beat Gibraltar
Norway to beat Slovenia Top Tip!
Netherlands to lose to Germany
FYR Macedonia to beat Liechtenstein
Bulgaria to beat Cyprus
Republic of Ireland to lose to Denmark

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6 hours ago, MangoTheThird said:

Peru to beat Chile
Slovakia to beat Czech Republic
Latvia to beat Kazakhstan
Georgia to beat Andorra
Armenia to beat Gibraltar
Norway to beat Slovenia Top Tip!
Netherlands to lose to Germany
FYR Macedonia to beat Liechtenstein
Bulgaria to beat Cyprus
Republic of Ireland to lose to Denmark

Good selection, though not sure of Netherland vs Germany and Ireland vs Denmark game

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Ireland vs Denmark

The next match in UEFA Nations League B Group 4 is up tonight with Ireland hosting Denmark in a 7:45pm kick-off at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. The home side need a win to avoid facing an uphill challenge in the second half of group games. A win for the away side would make them firm favourites to earn promotion to League A.

Ireland were awful against Wales in their 4-1 defeat in Cardiff back in September. I attended that game and I've not seen an Irish side play so badly. Wales were very good on the attack with their younger players really showing their full potential but I couldn't believe how easy it was.

Denmark on the other hand were a far better side but they were driven by Christian Eriksen. His impact on their side is very similar to Gareth Bale on the Welsh side. Eriksen tore Ireland apart in the 2018 World Cup qualifying play-off last year but he's expected to miss this game. It's a massive opportunity for the Irish. Being brutally honest, Denmark without Eriksen are a far less effective team, particularly away from home. Goals without Eriksen could be an issue. The highest scorer at international level included in the Denmark squad is Yussuf Poulsen who has 5 goals in 32 caps.

It'll be interesting to see how Ireland react to the Wales result. Ireland looked a lot better against Turkey in the friendly a few days after that game but still lost 1-0 failing to hit the target again. The fallout from the leaked Stephen Ward audio about the team bust-ups with Roy Keane appear to have past by without too much long-term damage being done. Still, Martin O'Neill has rarely needed a win as much as he does now.

Ireland will be keen to get revenge for the 5-1 hammering they took at this ground against Denmark in November last year. Shane Long, Harry Arter, and James McClean are all back in the squad but O'Neill is still without a number of key players due to injury such as Seamus Coleman, Robbie Brady, Stephen Ward, and Jonathan Walters. It'll be a big ask for this squad to get something here.

I can see this being a turgid affair. No offence to any Irish fans on here but they are one of the most boring sides at international level. O'Neill chooses that more progressive approach due to the limited talent pool he has at his disposal and with the absence of four influential squad members he's unlikely to have the confidence to take the game to the Danes.

A single goal could split the teams here. Ireland only have one win in their last year of matches. The losing mentality is hard to shake.The Boys in Green have also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches. In comparison, Denmark have won five competitive games on the trot. I'd have to back a Denmark win here but if Ireland can kill the game then they could get a point here if Denmark lack the creativity without Eriksen. I just think Ireland are so poor at the moment that any half competent side will have enough to beat them.

Denmark to Win @ 2.55 with UniBet

Denmark to Score First @ 1.95 with Boylesports

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Nations League

Turkey has over 2.5 goals in their last 6 international matches.
Turkey scored in last 8 international matches.
Turkey scored over 1.5 goals in last 3 away international matches.

You can find interesting 53 Football Betting Streaks for 14.10.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-14-10-2018-11628

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14 hours ago, Gedkip said:

Good selection, though not sure of Netherland vs Germany and Ireland vs Denmark game

 

20 hours ago, MangoTheThird said:

Peru to beat Chile
Slovakia to beat Czech Republic
Latvia to beat Kazakhstan
Georgia to beat Andorra
Armenia to beat Gibraltar
Norway to beat Slovenia Top Tip!
Netherlands to lose to Germany
FYR Macedonia to beat Liechtenstein
Bulgaria to beat Cyprus
Republic of Ireland to lose to Denmark

5 out of 10 - not great

✔ Peru 3 v Chile 0    
✘ Slovakia 1 v Czech Republic 2
✘ Latvia 1 v Kazakhstan 1
✔ Georgia 3 v Andorra 0    
✘ Armenia 0 v Gibraltar 1
✔ Norway 1 v Slovenia 0    
✘ Netherlands 3 v Germany 0
✔ FYR Macedonia 4 v Liechtenstein 1
✔ Bulgaria 2 v Cyprus 1
✘ Republic of Ireland 0 v Denmark 0

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I've placed a medium bet on Kosovo NOT to keep a clean sheet at the Faroe Islands (i.e. Faroe Island to score). Odds at bet365 is 1.8 which looks like value to me since the home team has scored in 4 of their last 6 home matches. And these matches were against a similar-level opposition - Andorra, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Azerbaijan. Moreover, the Faroes failed to score against Azerbaijan 3 days ago but they had a few chances (even hit the post) and they must be extra motivated to score today. They are always looking for opportunities to shoot from a long range or headers in the penalty box. They are under no pressure to win so they could either try to score or go for a 0-0 draw. Kosovo managed to keep a clean sheet in Azerbaijan in September (and in Albania in May), it's time for them to concede a goal away from home.

 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Nations League

Spain has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 international matches.
England has under 2.5 goals in their last 7 away international matches.
Northern Ireland didn’t score in last 3 away international matches.
Bosnia & Herzegovina allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 9 international matches.
Estonia has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 international matches.
Finland has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 international matches.

You can find interesting 49 Football Betting Streaks for 15.10.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-15-10-2018-11644

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Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Northern Ireland

League B Group 3 enters its second half of games this Monday night when Bosnia-Herzegovina play Northern Ireland in a 7:45pm kick-off at the Stadion Grbavica in Sarajevo and the home side have a massive opportunity to take a step towards promotion to League A with victory here.

Bosnia-Herzegovina have won both of their group matches so far with a 2-1 win against Northern Ireland in Belfast and a 1-0 win over Austria. Tight matches are a speciality of Robert Prosinecki's side. Since the former Croatian international took over at the helm, his side have only played one game where the result has been decided by more than a single goal on one occasion. Since Prosinecki's took over on 4th January this year he has seen Bosnia-Herzegovina win 4, draw 4, and lose 1.

Northern Ireland surprised me in their game against Austria on Friday night by holding out for so long. However, the pressure told eventually and Austria got the clean sheet victory that I anticipated. I can see a similar outcome here. Bosnia-Herzegovina are defensively sound having conceded just 3 goals in their 9 matches under Prosinecki. Six clean sheets have come in those matches too. That's a hell of a defensive record.

Michael O'Neill needs a win here otherwise his team are staring relegation to League C in the face. It would be zero points from three games with just a single home game against Austria left to level on points with their opponents that night. They would also need Austria to lose at home to Bosnia-Herzegovina before that encounter to keep their hopes alive. On the flip side, a shock win here would open the group right up heading into the last two matches.

I just don't think Northern Ireland have enough in attack to threaten this resolute Bosnian defence. That being said, Northern Ireland did breach the Bosnian back-line in the return leg back in September but it came at the cost of two goals conceded. It won't be as easy in Sarajevo. I can see a Bosnian clean sheet win here.

Bosnia-Herzegovina to Win to Nil @ 2.38 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.63 with MarathonBet

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    Casino

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • 1.15 Chelt - Normal Norman 50/1 Betfair 0.5ew 
    • Sunderland vs Wycombe The first game up for the previews in this reduced schedule weekend is League One's 2nd placed team Sunderland playing mid-table side Wycombe in a 3pm kick-off this Saturday at the Stadium of Light. I'm picking this match because it's a classic case where the home side should seal a business-like win. Sunderland are experiencing somewhat of a return to stability under the stewardship of Jack Ross. The former St Mirren manager has overseen a huge number of changes at the club over the summer. 23 players departed the club and Ross essentially built the playing squad from scratch. It was a risk but it's paid off. The Black Cats are 2nd in the table with 35 points from 16 league games and just one defeat all season. Wycombe are not doing too badly so far. A number of pundits tipped them to struggle this season but Gareth Ainsworth, also known as "Wild Thing", continues to defy the odds at the club he's been with for six years now. The Chairboys are in 15th place with 21 points from 17 league games meaning they are 6 points clear of the relegation zone. This game sticks out for me for the simple reason that Sunderland are undefeated at home and Wycombe have really struggled on their travels with just one victory in their 8 away matches so far. I've no doubt that Ainsworth will have his players fighting until the end but the home team should have too much for the visitors. Wycombe have won 4 of their last 6 games and have only lost by more than 1 goal on the road once this season but I think this game will be a tough one for them. Sunderland -1 @ 2.88 with SpreadEx Sunderland HT/FT @ 2.70 with Ladbrokes @Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, @MangoTheThird, and @sajtion, are you guys going to put any bets down this weekend?
    • 1.50 Cheltenham - Movie Legend @ 13/2 Bet365
    • Good luck today 12.20 Lingfield Interesting that the two best backed horses are both got the same trainer and owner! Quite like the best priced of the two: Diamond Lady Each Way @ 10-1  BOG Skybet
    • Cheltenham 2.25    Mr Whipped    3-1 William Hill
    • 27-37 +28.37 units Bastian Malla to beat Kuzmanov @ 2.83 pinnacle Hiroki Moriya to beat Uchiyama @ 2.44 pinnacle Hope to ride a good run, cash both of these. time for a huge comeback after the past couple days. I've seen Moriya's last match vs Oliveira. His technique was incredible at the net. I hope that his legs are ready, Because, if they are.. It's going to be a long day for for Uchiyama. I am a big fan of Moriya's ball striking. 
    • Friday 16/11/2018 NO SELECTIONS
    • #33. 2.00 Lingfield - Uncle Jerry @ 5/6 William Hill - Flat Kelly stake of 44.99pts (assessed chance of 75%) LTO winners for 16/11
      Uncle Jerry has won his last two races since the application of blinkers (worn again today). Penultimate race saw the 4th win next time out (as well as Uncle Jerry) . His last race was won comfortably by 4L's while going away. Pretty much has similar conditions as those wins today and could well be in front of the handicapper for a tilt at a potential third win. Grouping wise (spreadsheet), after applying the available price filter, reduces the group from 105 to 20 qualifiers with 15 of those winning next time (75%). DB list for group 7999 after filtering for SP.
    • 12.20 Lingfield  KATH'S LUSTRE 1pt win 10/1 PaddyPower BOG
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