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Non-League Predictions > September 22nd


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Hopefully we won't see a repeat of last Saturday again this season as it was a horrid afternoon. Eastbourne put in their worst performance of the season by a long way and to lose so heavily to a team with 10 men for so long was shocking. Anyway days like that happen in a season so hopefully this weekend I can be back in the money. The National League South/North sides enter the FA Cup this weekend and at this stage no one has priced up any of the matches yet. Should that change and should I fancy something then I will add to this post. It means only the National League has a full fixture list and there are 2 bets I like.

Solihull Moors v Bromley

Bromley have lost 3 games on the bounce now and they drew the game before so that is 4 without a win. To be fair they didn't play too badly against Salford last weekend and going down to 10 men would not have helped their cause. Manager Neil Smith didn't think it was a red card, but from what I saw on the highlights it seemed justified to me. They have played 5 games away from home and have picked up just two points. It could be argued as well that they have been slightly fortunate to get both as they were 2 down in both matches. Against Wrexham it was a 90th minute own goal and against Maidenhead they scored twice in injury time to pick up a draw. Their season so far has certainly backed up my pre-season thoughts that they would struggle to reach the heights of last season. Solihull on the other-hand have looked anything but relegation candidates, which they were short in the betting for. After 11 games they only sit outside of the play-offs on goal difference and although I had my doubts about Tim Flowers as a manager it is a case of so far so good. They were especially strong at home last season and that has carried on this time around. They are the only team to have beaten Wrexham this season and although they lost to Hartlepool 1-0 in their last home game there is nothing wrong with that give Hartlepool are yet to lose away from home. It might be a game of few goals given Solihull have scored 5 and conceded 3 at home so far this season, but they look in much better shape than their opponents and 29/25 with Marathon looks a good price about a home win.

Sutton v Wrexham

Sutton losing 4-0 to Boreham Wood on Tuesday night was one of the most surprising results of the season so far. Given Boreham Wood had only scored twice away from home prior to that and Sutton had on conceded twice twice at home it was not a scoreline anyone would have seen coming. It was Sutton's first loss of the season at home, but although they have beaten Salford at home this season, I do think they have generally been playing better away from home. It was interesting to read Paul Doswell's quotes after the draw against Halifax when he spoke about it being a poor game and that the players were struggling with the busy schedule. Given they have had to play an extra game than Wrexham that is not going to help them here. I really don't understand why Wrexham are as big as 14/5 with Bet365. The price is starting to go and I can see them going off no bigger than 2/1 come 3pm Saturday. Wrexham needed a goalscorer last season and they are now capable of scoring goals. They have 18 so far this season and they looked really good when beating Ebbsfleet 4-1 last Saturday. What is also big for them is the fact they have been really hard to score against and they have conceded just 5 times. They look genuine title contenders and although I do expect some sort of response from Sutton I think Werxham will have too much for them and the price looks massive.

Solihull Moors 2.5pts @ 29/25 with Marathon

Wrexham 2.5pts 14/5 with Bet365 

FA Cup

So Bet365 have priced up some of the FA Cup games. Why they have chosen these over the others I have no idea. BetVictor I think might be pricing more up, but I can't bet with them so haven't looked at what they have done.

Acca

Usually I avoid acca's, but the FA Cup does lend itself to them as you get some complete mis-matches. I have had a bit of success with them over the years and I have come up with a 7 team acca that pays just over 5/1 with Bet365. All the teams are at home apart from the first one Torquay. Lymington couldn't believe their luck when they drew Torquay and after beating Lydney in a replay they get their big day. This game is on the BBC website, but it really should be a one sided affair especially with Gary Johnson not wanting a bad result in just his 2nd game in charge. City Of Liverpool have only lost 1 league game, but it is hard to see them causing Chester too many problems. Chippenham should be able to see off Swindon Supermarine and unbeaten Chorley shouldn't have any issues getting past Leek. Hampton & Richmond are flying at the moment and face a poor side in Burgess Hill who have yet to win in the league this season. Kidderminster could easily put a few past Step 6 side Atherstone Town. Finally Wealdstone should have too much for Great Wakering Rovers.

The other reason I like betting on the FA Cup is you get some big priced shocks, but nothing really appeals in this round so it will just be the acca.

Torquay, Chester, Chippenham, Chorley, Hampton & Richmond, Kidderminster & Wealdstone 1pt acca @ 5.17/1 with Bet365

Edited by Darran
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Harrogate vs Leyton Orient (2) Asian HDP +0.25 1.87 1u

Harrogate topping the table wasn't exactly what i envisioned, but so far they seem to be doing a fine job of gaining points from teams in mid to lower end of the table. Against Leyton Orient, i foresee they might not have it so easy and as such, i find the hdp to be too generous to pass on. 

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Taking Darran's point on the likelihood of surprises at this stage, a flying Tonbridge  may have too much for Dulwich Hamlet. Despite Dulwich's fine win at Woking last week they have found it hard at their new level and I expect Tonbridge to take the game to Dulwich and continue their good start to the season.

I don't see Weston improving any time soon and Salisbury may have too much for them. Salisbury continue to improve since the club imploded a few years ago and I see a low scoring away win here.

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Just with Wrexham I think it's worth coupling them up with Hartlepool and Leyton Orient. Hartlepool are at the fast fading Halifax, Pool's, although not scoring many don't concede many either and have been picking up wins lately so at 13/8 they are worth it. Leyton Orient are at Harrogate who have been all conquering but I reckon that Orient could well get 3 points here today, they'll be quietly confident I would have thought.

Wrexham 12/5, Hartlepool 13/8, Leyton Orient 17/10 pays 24/1.

Edited by Kenton Schweppes
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40 minutes ago, mijOsim said:

@Darran What do you thing about Kiderrminster -1.5AH, 1.65 in my local? If i understand correctly, 4 leagues sepparate these teams? Will home side take this serious? Thanks

 

I'll be at the game and can tell you that Kidderminster have a fairly small squad so there cannot be many changes. It is possible that the two strikers, Chambers and Ironside, are not in the starting XI and perhaps Lee Vaughan will be given a break. However, these player may still be on the bench. Their potential replacements are Dan Bradley (a regular, goal-scoring attacking midfielder/striker) and Kane Richards who has come off the bench several times this season and found the net a couple of times. Vaughan's potential replacement would be Sam Austin at wing back. He is excellent going forward and crosses really well.

Atherstone Town have just been put out of the FA Vase by Coventry Utd and really should be given the runaround on Harriers big, wide pitch. Kiddie's manager, Neil McFarlane, is a very vocal, demanding guy - unlike the passive wet lettuce leaf John Eustace who happily moved to QPR in the close season to be assistant to Steve McLaren (they are well suited). McFarlane will have been furious at Kidderminster's tepid display at Chester on Tuesday when they lost for the first time this season. I suspect there may be a backlash and a very rapid start against today's opposition.

I've backed Kidderminster -2 on the handicap at 7/5 and also HT/FT at 8/13.

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4 hours ago, Kenton Schweppes said:

Just with Wrexham I think it's worth coupling them up with Hartlepool and Leyton Orient. Hartlepool are at the fast fading Halifax, Pool's, although not scoring many don't concede many either and have been picking up wins lately so at 13/8 they are worth it. Leyton Orient are at Harrogate who have been all conquering but I reckon that Orient could well get 3 points here today, they'll be quietly confident I would have thought.

Wrexham 12/5, Hartlepool 13/8, Leyton Orient 17/10 pays 24/1.

Hartlepool been really well backed all week and they were on my shortlist. Value certainly gone though for me.

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Sutton vs Wrexham (2) Asian HDP +0.5 1.76 1u

Sutton making 6 changes, quite rightly so after the debacle last match. Wrexham with unchanged lineup from the one which won 4-1 vs Ebbs. Lafayette will be a big miss for Sutton and starting young Ayunga in attack is a gamble. I will take the +0.5 hdp, which i think is pretty generous.

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1 minute ago, Darran said:

I seem to be finding those teams who decide to have horror shows. Wrexham won't have a first half like that for the rest of the season. Sutton made 6 changes from Tuesday night and that seems to have been the key. At least Solihull have been good.

The worst thing about it is I picked out the other two away winners, who are both winning comfortable but Wrexham are having a chuffing horror show.

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We were shocking. Penalty for the first followed shirt tugging at a corner and the second from a defensive header hitting another defender and dropping into the path of a striker for a tap in. The sending off? Apparently the Sutton bench didn't think it was a red but themes the breaks.

The surprise was the unchanged team and he has changed it pretty much every week. It was not what a fan would view the first choice strike team but I guess the manager was swayed by the 1st half from last week and stuck with them. We will have an enforced change midweek, unless we appeal the red (it is dealt with by the Welsh FA and they are known to be a bit soft sometimes) but  there will be changes.

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36 minutes ago, bartonbank said:

We were shocking. Penalty for the first followed shirt tugging at a corner and the second from a defensive header hitting another defender and dropping into the path of a striker for a tap in. The sending off? Apparently the Sutton bench didn't think it was a red but themes the breaks.

The surprise was the unchanged team and he has changed it pretty much every week. It was not what a fan would view the first choice strike team but I guess the manager was swayed by the 1st half from last week and stuck with them. We will have an enforced change midweek, unless we appeal the red (it is dealt with by the Welsh FA and they are known to be a bit soft sometimes) but  there will be changes.

Out of the 3 times I've backed you this season, you've lost twice, don't do it again.:)

Edited by Kenton Schweppes
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