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Howth 7 30 Wol/ 1/40th of a pt ew 14/1 - Won

Won. BSP 5.00 62 from 228, LSP 62.91

3.30 Leopardstown - LOVELY REACTION 8/1 eway Betfair ( 4 places ) 9's with 888 sport , terrible site on mobile though . 1st , nice start to the week 👍

4.00 Leopardstown - Redzy Rocco 25/1 EW

Rough race but 3rd.

Going to take an ew chance on Revision in the opener at Wolves at 16/1. Has generally been running in Class 4 & 5 races throughout his career so far, last two tries have been in Class 6 where he was well beaten over 7f but then ran much better over 6f at Kempton last time. He was beaten 4 lengths by White Mist that day but was carrying 5lbs more than that rival, furthermore he actually reared at the start and missed the break. Today he carries 4lbs less than White Mist but is 3x her price. From a career-low mark he must be getting to a mark he can win from.

🤑 "With such good money on offer in Riyadh, where the final must surely be the most valuable best-of-nine frames snooker match ever played, expect Ronnie O'Sullivan and Judd Trump to be back on song and chomping at the bit. "It's clear the players are really keen to embrace this new investment in the sport, which to be frank, is needed. Next week will offer big money to the biggest stars who are probably doing very well anyway, but when next season comes around and we have a 128-man ranking event which we are expecting to have another big purse, that’s when some of those trying to make the game pay lower down the rankings will have a real chance to earn that big pay day. I know those players are relieved to have that opportunity. "Snooker’s first ever 167 maximum break could be made, if the stars align and the new Golden Ball is potted at the end of any maximum. "It might seem like a gimmick at this stage, and I’m not sure if it will catch on, but by all accounts we are expecting a very big prize to be offered for anyone able to do it. We’ve had instances in the past where Ronnie has turned down making a maximum break in protest at what he has seen as poor reward – that most certainly won’t be the case next week." Neal Foulds on next week's lucrative Riyadh Masters.

Yep, BETMGM I haven't tried to take any money out, I tend to take out my money at the financial year end. I don't think it will be a problem, it is part of a multi billion pound company. In terms of offers, it's probably one of the best I've come across. For Cheltenham they have a £60 opening offer + a £20 free bet if your selection loses in the 1st race each day.

Day 65 +£206 @Carole-dawney bottom one

Leicester fans are very unhappy at the moment judging by the moaning on their forum 😆. I still think they should beat Sunderland who I wanted to oppose again after a pretty low quality game at Carrow Road on Saturday in the rain. The Foxes have lost 3 in a row in the league but should have beaten Boro, were on top most of the game against Leeds and had 74% of the ball against QPR...conceding 2 goals from 2 shots on target. Sunderland have Ballard back in defence so could be more solid than they looked against Norwich but they've only scored 2 goals in 4 defeats in a row and really miss Clarke. Hopefully 1 goal could be enough for Leicester. They might keep drifting out a bit so I'm waiting to bet but 4/5 is fair enough already. Cardiff managed a (smash and grab?) win in their derby with Bristol at the weekend but Huddersfield are playing well and probably worth a look at 2/1. Leicester, Leeds, Cov, Ipswich, Hudders, Southampton acca around 22/1.

Won Profit £45.12 Monthly profit £5.12

Best advice at this present time before you do much else is to go on the Racing Post website and study the results from last year you will find many clues especially for the handicaps. It is good to remind yourself of all those horses that were tipped up (bankers) and failed, you can also find unlucky losers or horses that ran well in defeat. I don't like these stable interviews that have and are being bandied about at the moment. far better to go listen to what the trainers said at the start of the season because they get a bit secretive from about 4 weeks before the festival. Great example Mullins highlighted Galopin des champs at the start of 2022 (if memory serves, could have been 2021) but never mentioned it in his interview just before that festival can you believe it was in a handicap and pissed in at 8/1, a gold cup winner in a fookin handicap cheeky bleeders. Corach Rambler in the gold cup is a goer for me at the price. Remember Hedgehunter winning the GN then following year finished 2nd in the gold cup (66/1 if i rem correctly) before finishing 2nd in the GN.

Higgins sure got close with 15 reds/blacks but landed almost touching the yellow else I think he would at least have had a shot at the golden ball!

Won at 5/4 Profit £30.36 Monthly profit £35.48

Bet 2 Bayern Munich v Lazio Over 0.5 Goals [email protected]

Double Arsenal to win 2/11 Milan to win 2/9 Singles Sheffield clean sheet 11/1 Genoa clean sheet 8/1

IW - Arango to beat E. Andreeva - 4.7 on Betfair. IW - L. Pigossi to beat C. Osorio - 5.0 on Betfair. No time for write ups tonight.

Wolverhampton 5.30 Smasher 9/1 ew bet365

Here's the outright betting for this year's Copa America which starts on 20th June and takes place in the USA. There will be 16 teams, 10 from South America and 6 from CONCACAF. Play-offs later this month will determine the final 2 places, hence their still being 18 teams in the betting. Let us know if you're getting involved at this early stage.

So to lessons learned and I think the main one is that I was initially backing bets where the place terms were good but the win terms weren't. I had a good handle on a value anytime price from the existing systems approach but less so in terms of the first scorer price. Classic example would be a player who is odds on to score, say 8/11 best price, where my fair odds are 10/11. Obviously a "no bet" scenario. If the first price was 10/3 then the "place" terms would be slightly better than 11/10 which would induce me to take the bet each way. If the game had a high total goals expectation then the first price may be too short, meaning that the net value of the bet was actually neutral or even negative. I've now got a spreadsheet that takes account of the total goals expectation to calculate fair first goal odds. Hopefully that will eliminate some of the more marginal bets where the poor win price erodes the value in the place terms.

PILGRIMS KING won 11/8, SIBYL CHARM won 7/2, MANCHESTER CITY won for a profit of £23.52 less £10 casino Total profit £ 753.06 Plumpton 2.50 DUHALLOW TOMMY 6/4 £20 10% boost SHEFFIELD UNITED 17/1

Selections: 100 Ave Odds: 6.41 First Anytime Each Way Last P/L -£12.90 -£4.01 -£8.46 -£28.48 ROI -12.90% -4.01% -8.46% -28.77% Winners 16 39 39 14 That's how the 100 bets look, small loss and best (least worse) return from the anytime element. !00 bets a small sample at these odds. Selections: 124 Ave Odds: 7.01 First Anytime Each Way Last P/L -£0.90 £11.82 £5.46 -£13.48 ROI -0.73% 9.53% 4.40% -10.96% Winners 21 51 51 19 Better return from all bets placed since the start of the thread. Again the anytime element did best and first was worst though only just shy of break even. Last year my real money ROI from all first scorer bets (whether win or each way) was 17% and this year to date it is 12.85% so, outside of the "lab", the returns are clearly good enough to justify carrying on betting in this market. This year I've had just one winner from 24 win only bets (the duck was broken with the final bet) but 8 out of 33 each way bets scored 1st so I think it's safe to assume that split is fairly random and the overall figure of 9 first goalscorers from 57 selections is more relevant. 8 of the each way selections also "placed" so, with 16 out of 33 scoring, there's probably a degree of good fortune there. I'll pause there with another post in terms of what I've learned from this exercise (bet you "all" can hardly wait)!

+54.97 Sou 4.10 - After Many Days 3/1 Plu 4.52 - Mi Sueno 9/4 Wol 6.00 - Unleash Hell 4/1 Wol 7.30 - Artisan Dancer 2/1 Wol 8.30 - Twirler 15/8 prices skybet 10 x £2 doubles

+£5 yesterday this was the pick of the bunch day 65+£206

7.30 Newcastle - ZARZYNI 7/2 bet365 . 2nd , beaten a head . 8.30 Newcastle - SAN ISIDRO 17/2 eway bet365 ( 4 ) mate at work & his mrs have a share each it this horse , ran meh ! By having an ARC account by texting THANKYOU23 I could have had a ' free ' day out at Donny today , just gone through the card & unfortunately there's more non runners than runners though i still fancy VELASCO in the 4.25 . 1st 5/2 , could have moonwalked the final furlong & still win cosily 👍

On the plus side, I don’t need a calculator to work out my next stake!

Newcastle 8:30 Late night English racing!! Julie Camacho has had to be patient with this runner. But MAKEEN Win Is back to handicap winning debut mark on first run for Richard Hannon after three qualifiers with this his original yard. This is therefore a career low mark and up pops Hollie Doyle extreme draw and no suprise if improvement on first encounter with the ideal jockey. GREY FORCE ONE Each way won very early in career under mulreahnan. One more win last season. No involvement from that jockey here and on an interesting mark tonight. May run well at a price….

👍

Donvaster 3.50 PILGRIMS KING 9/4 £20 win BETMGM 20% price boost

Good shout @Zilzalian . Avoid the Irish in the Ultima , they've only won it twice in 2003 & 2006 , though that could mean they're do one ! 😱

Thank you MC for all your hard work running this comp. Much appreciated! Congratulations to all the winners, nice tipping.

Single 20£ Psg @ 2,00