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Just rated early for Fridays racing ....hoping to have a shot at a big double for a bit of fun ..... Leg 1 410 good Computer has flagged STREET KID as a potential value bet if I could get 7/1 + ......will hill are only bookies to price up but have priced at 10/1 !!.....so that's an instant qualifier .....5pt Ew single for now .....I need to check prices of other races when priced up to decide if anything warrants double material

1:58 at Market Rasen. There's a horse at 1/9, ITTACK BLUE. Ridden by Harry Skelton, trained by Dan Skelton. This is 2 miles & 125 yards over hurdles. Fair enough. The next favourite is INDEPENDENT JIMMY, @ 6 or 7 to 1. I'll have a double today, each way... INDEPENDENT JIMMY and 3:28 @ Market Rasen GODS OWN GETAWAY 15/8.

A 16/5 Winner (S.P 9/4) from two bets yesterday,with a small Rule 4 deduction.. Just the two today... 15.58 Market Rasen Notnowlinda (10/3 Vic) 19.47 Chelmsford Tonal (15/8 Fred) Sel/Wins: 34/7 Strike: 20.58% P/L: - 11.87 Pts

Leg 2 720 curragh Likewise after ruling out other races due to prices ...computer has joint top. DUNUM and BLUES EMPEROR and value bets over 7/1 .....I can get 8/1 and 17/2 so I'll go 5pt Ew both and ....Ew doubles both races for a shot at holiday spending money 🤑 💰

Good twilight card at Sandown . 6.07 - SURVEYOR 7/2 bet365 . 8.12 - ICE MAX 2/1 bet365 .

A profit is a profit

I have a vague idea for an additional "value rating" to add to what we did for the Guineas races (though an individual could use it as well). At it's most basic, you could multiply your rating by the odds for that horse. The number might be a bit ungainly but you could do what I did and convert it into an index number where 100 is the average for that race so anything above 100 appears to offer the better value. Say you have two 9/1 shots in the race, with speed ratings of 68 and 72. That gives you 680 and 720, with the potentially better value selection getting the higher number. Or, say you have two horses rated at 70, one is 9/1 and one is 12/1. That gives you 700 and 910, again flagging the likely better bet. I'm not suggesting this is a magic bullet but it could speed up the process we went through of mentally comparing the ratings to the prices on offer and picking out our best bet. A useful indicator to add into the mix perhaps.

incredible stuff from Littler. I had the 9 darter at 25s but mainly, I have him to win the Worlds now at 18s

Here's each teams record v the Top 100 FIFA ranked teams since international football resumed in late 2020... ..and some general Euro stats... I'm in the process of fine-tuning my ratings and adding a few more markets to my model - hoping to release prices early next week

INDEPENDNT JIMMY placed at 9/1. GODS OWN GETAWAY won at 2/1. I put on £2.18 (EW) and won £5.31. It's not fantastic, is it?

I am watching this discussion/experiment with great interest simply because i have already gone through most of these processes to arrive at where/what i use today. Interpretation is always needed but i still ended up 95% of the time coming down to the simple fact that i have produced speed ratings to identify the fastest horse in the race (not necessarily the best horse in the race) so i sway towards the pure figure especially where the price is above 6/1. My top rated for the G1 2000g for example was Bucanero Fuerte (66/1) which was pulled out at the 5 day stage. It ran on Sunday in a group 3 at Naas and won at 2/1 (10/3 ep). Both of these prices in both races represented value when you consider the difference in the two races. Once again Bucanero Fuerte produced the fastest time/figure of the meeting. That will go in the notebook going forward as one to follow at a price. I think the Bucanero example is where there is good information outside of speed figures that is based originally on speed figures if you get my meaning. Based on this I am predicting that Bucanero Fuerte will win at a decent price at Royal Ascot if it turns up.

Welcome Rob. You branching out into stand up mate? Only joking, they are indeed extremely knowledgeable and there's a good mix of tips, advice and theoretical discussions. They even let me take part. Have a look at the footy threads as well, any input most welcome there, especially as focus turns towards the Euros.

Hi @Rob W. Welcome to the forum. The horse racing community are very modest here so they'll never blow their own trumpets but I can honestly say they're a cracking bunch with a superb knowledge base for the sport. You'll not only learn a lot from the staff and members here but you'll have a great time doing it too!

Welcome @Rob W, you will find losts of info and tips on here, wishing you good luck.

minus 121.75 Bit random but I've picked a few horses in handicaps who's odds have shortened in the last hour Catt 2.40 Irish Dancer 3/1 Ling 2.50 So Sleepy 15/8 MR 3.28 - Sleeping Satellite 5/2 Catt 3.40 Wichapi 4/1 Catt 4.10 White Umbrella 3/1 prices skybet 10 x £2 doubles

I magonna crack a luif when I saw the odds for England: 3/1 FAVOURITES!! When I am in France I put on bets on the Irish horses and get really good odds. I reckon that IN GERMANY the odds on England will be about 7/1. Who are going to put money on England to win outright?

I like your reasoning for Italy. I havent't researched deeper, but with a similar reasoning Croatia might be a good pick at around 40/1. They are a traditionally good "tournament team", and while their current roster is maybe not so spectacular individually as previous Croatian squads, they still managed to reach the Finals of the UEFA Nations League.

Bet365 doesn't seem to have the odds yet. I haven't put any bets on yet, but I'm thinking about the Euros. Here are some thoughts. I think England might get to the semi-finals, with a load of luck. A very good outsider is TURKEY. In Germany there will be a HUGE Turkish support. The Moroccans in 2022 went a long way (World Cup) and I think the Turkish could be semi-finalists. Have to say that I think that the GERMANS will be in the final. I think the other finalists could be Spain or Portugal. I simply do not like France. They often have TERRIBLE tournaments. I remember they were defending World Champions but did not score a single goal. A great semi-final will be Portugal v Spain, and the dram of penalties. This is just a "scratchpad" of my thoughts over the month.

To be fair I am looking at several angles here and this particular analysis was in response to the question posed by @Trotter. For this analysis the selections were the top rated overall. This would be a starting point for further analysis. Hopefully as time progresses I will discover analysis based on the going that are more profitable. All my work is with the intention of ending up with a pure system, my interpretive skills are not very good ! Speed figures are not a particularly precise measure, I suspect that they probably produce the wrong answer in most cases but they just need to be right a certain amount of the time for them to be valuable. My main area of focus at the moment is to look at horses that have produced a speed figure in the top 50% of performances and then further analyse them based on a number of factors such as course, going, class, position,weight etc. So as an example Following horses in the top 50% on their next 5 runs gives the following results Original run on good going, 6,063 wins from 46,673 runs, profit 1,262, AE 1.04 Official rating > 95, 2,049 from 17,925, profit 1,078, AE 1.06 Original run in class 1 to 3 races, 7,693 from 66,489, profit 613, AE 1.03 Fillies / Mares, 6,818 from 52,515, profit 422, AE 1.03 2yo, 1,466 from 8,718, profit 190, AE 1.04 I now need to look at these in more detail to arrive at a logical system that will hopefully prove profitable in my test data and then in real life !

I've had a look at the data for the last 2 years, it proved a bit trickier than I inittially envisaged. As you suggested, ignoring those at the top of the market will improve returns. Ignoring those horses with forecast odds of 7/2 and below gives an AE of 1.05 with 1,117 from 9,558 runs with a profit of 296 points. Not a massive return but a good starting point.

Went with a few bets on this. 1st round bets went Speith, Homa and Hoge. Went with Morikawa and also landed lucky on lucky dip at 130/1 on finau who I was going to back anyway. Also ended up with schenk, hossler and Tarren. Dad has went morikawa and bezu

Wow. He really wins everything, LOL.

Result: Magic Gem 1st. Won £80 May Profit: £147.18

Regional is due to run in the 2.30 at Curragh on Saturday, available at 6/1and also entered in 2 sprints at Royal Ascot

Chelmsford 20.22 £20 Magic Gem @4/1 BetVictor

Just noticed I've still got the RP preview for 2020 so here's some updated numbers relating to the last 6 Euros. Fate of the favourites - only one winner (Spain as 3/1 co-favs with Germany in 2012). Runners up 3 times (including England as co-favs last time). Semis and quarters in the other two. Odds of the winners - 3 in single figures. Italy were 11/1 and we've had 22/1 Portugal and 100/1 Greece. Odds of the runners up - all single figures barring 14/1 Italy in 2012 Odds of the losing semi finalists - in all bar one year we've had 1 at single figure odds and 1 in double digits. Working backwards we've had Denmark at 28/1, Wales 80/1, Portugal 20/1, Russia 28/1 and Turkey 50/1, Czech Rep 14/1, Portugal 25/1 Teams to make the last 4 more than once are Portugal (4 times), Italy, Spain and Germany (3 times) and France and the Netherlands twice.

Totals markets up on SX. Worth seeing if any of the numbers look too high or low; even if you don't spread bet there will be fixed odds over/under markets up in due course,

Here is a reminder of the French in 1998. They were hosts, they had no problems at all winning. They beat Brazil 3-0 in the final. BUT THEN IN 2002 in S. Korea/ Japan...POOR SHOW! The French failed to score a goal against the heavyweights Denmark, Senegal & Uruguay. France ended ROOTED TO the bottom of the group table. They went home with ONE POINT!!! Faîtes-moi un faveur mec!!

Mind you, the French had a really good goal-scorer, a great striker. Just Fontaine. He has no first name.😝😁

Hi all, I've had a look around the site and decided to join as I see a lot of knowledgeable and helpful people in here. I trade on football but I've always had a great interest in horse racing. I've never betted on a horse race other than having a punt on the Grand National! The amount of knowledge regarding stats on horses, jockeys, trainers and courses etc, that you need to bet sensibly on the horses has always put me off, but as with anything in life, if you want have an edge you need to gain knowledge in the subject. That's why I'm here to try and learn as much as possible about racing before I decide to risk my money 😁

Hi Rob, Welcome aboard.

Doing a small experiment on the spread markets. Finishing positions (max 70) D. McCarthy sell at 37 C. Kirk sell at 38 Only doing this for very small stakes. See how it goes.

Can't just do the basic sum as it's going over-rate a lot of the rank outsiders. Still the seed of a decent idea (something that factors in the price). Will have a play about with it before the call next goes out for the Master Raters to assemble!

Catterick 5.15 HOMER STOKES 11/4 £20 win BETMGM 10% boost

I've laid Ittack Blue at around 1/8, will probably win but it's a mad price with a penalty and doesn't cost much to lay. Wasn't that impressive last time with some ragged jumps in the home straight and the runner up was closing at the finish despite ittack being driven out. Fair play to the fav, won going away this time. Runner up gave it a solid try but not as good.

I find the odds of Littler-Smith too wide... yes, Littler probably wins it all (he wins everything, right?), but 1,40 against an in-form Smith who happens to have a 5-2 record against him (ok, best of 11 matches, but still)? Smith to win at 3,00.

This one might have chances.

Bet 12 [Rugby League] Australia,Saturday,10.35am Parramatta to beat Rabbitohs @ 1.83 with Paddy Power Stake,6pts

For clarity, what are the criteria here? Backing the horse that was top rated on its last run subject to the minimum odds criteria? If so, is that top rated on the going or overall? Just after a reminder of where you’re up to. Am I right in thinking you’re trying to arrive at a pure system approach where the selections pick themselves? I do think that speed ratings lend themselves more to an interpretive approach than an automated one (unless you can find a way to use them to price up every runner). I can see a scenario where you’re backing a top rated 5/1 shot when there’s a 25/1 shot that’s rated only slightly lower which would be the obvious bet for anyone using their judgement. Or are you taking the odds into account in some way?

Premier League Finals Night tonight, not had too many bets in the PL this season, but want a bit of interest tonight. Taking the power price from PaddyPower … Littler and Humphries both to win and hit 6 180s each, which is boosted to 6/1.

20.12 Sandown Almaqam 11/1 bet365

Went with a few on this, stayed near the top end. Paul, Otaguei and Rozner. Dad has went Lawrence and Lombard.

A pleasing report from the Headmistess. 😁

Well played Timo you nearly piped me at the end, wasn't expecting it to be that close.