Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Phil, As usual, great stuff mate. One question (I'm being an annoying bastid!).....could you post up yield figures too? And where does your strike rate figure come from? All that aside, fcuking great profit figure mate:ok

I was going to aak about Yield. I ain't no mathematician so how do I figure it out? Also I might have miscalculated strike rate but I saw it as 9 wins/places from 19 selections. 9/19 = 0.47 X 100 = 47%. Maybe that's wrong, if so tell me where i've gone wrong and i'll sort it out. :ok I'll pick the winners and think i'd better get an accountant to do the figures, good job I'm not self employed and doing tax returns. :lol

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Sorry Phil, I misread the strike rate:$ :$ Yes, its spot on:ok Yield is easy mate........total profit / total stakes x 100 (to give %). So, if all your bets had been to 10pts stake (which I don't think they have), yield would be: 164 / 190 x 100 = 86.31% yield where 164 is total profit as above (164pts) where 190 is total stakes (ie, if all 19 selections had been total of 10pts per bet) Hope this helps:ok By the way, you keep picking the winners as well;)

[Morris]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Who needs tipping services when you've got Punters Lounge???

Who needs tipping services when you have Mowgli more like, (No offence to anyone else)! :clap Congrats - I have been having a look at some of your threads and tips since I have joined and meaning to show my appreciation, you seem to be constantly winning and always on that rolling strap line at the top - wp. :notworthy

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Sorry Phil, I misread the strike rate:$ :$ Yes, its spot on:ok Yield is easy mate........total profit / total stakes x 100 (to give %). So, if all your bets had been to 10pts stake (which I don't think they have), yield would be: 164 / 190 x 100 = 86.31% yield where 164 is total profit as above (164pts) where 190 is total stakes (ie, if all 19 selections had been total of 10pts per bet) Hope this helps:ok By the way, you keep picking the winners as well;)

Quick total of amount staked is 200pts as follows: (10/15/20/10/10/10/10/20/5/50/30/10) with 164 pts profit. Am i right then in thinking 164/200 X 100 = 82% Yield. That seems like a high figure mate if most tipsters are working to 10% or 15 %. I might have calculated it wrong, please let me know if it's correct.

Lucky1

Quote: Originally Posted by mowgli77 Who needs tipping services when you've got Punters Lounge??? Who needs tipping services when you have Mowgli more like, (No offence to anyone else)! :clap Congrats - I have been having a look at some of your threads and tips since I have joined and meaning to show my appreciation, you seem to be constantly winning and always on that rolling strap line at the top - wp. :notworthy

Cheers mate, much appreciated. Let me make it clear though that this place isn't a one man band and you have to give credit to all the other punters with threads in credit and massive respect to those willing to put their reputation on the line with their own threads. :) I don't like the word 'tips' as mine are selections and a lot of time and effort goes into them, nice to know it is appreciated. I'm not the only one though putting in the time and effort with form study and i'd ask you to have a look at some other threads that PL members have got running. Some of them don't get the views they should, with only regulars paying them attention. This ATR section is booming, winners on a daily basis and it can only get better. :ok

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Quick total of amount staked is 200pts as follows: (10/15/20/10/10/10/10/20/5/50/30/10) with 164 pts profit. Am i right then in thinking 164/200 X 100 = 82% Yield. That seems like a high figure mate if most tipsters are working to 10% or 15 %. I might have calculated it wrong, please let me know if it's correct.

It's spot on, mate, if 200pts is your total stakes:ok 82% is a cracking yield mate, for sure. The question is....can you keep it going? Generally, yields even out as you have more & more bets. For example, I had my flat handicap thread running at about 30% yield for a while, but now its bottomed out at about 10% after 110 bets:ok :hope that you can keep it going, I have every faith. You've been on fire now for the last 3/4 months, which makes me think it's not a hot streak, it's just the norm from Mowgli. Absolutely superb selections, mate, just keep it going:ok

[Morris]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Fair play mate, I was just commenting on what I have seen in my short stint here, I Will definatly go and delve deeper into the At The Races section and cast my eye over more threads similar to yours over the coming weeks.:ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 82% yield :eek You dont get that down at the Bradford & Bingley! :lol

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread If this was a NAPS yield and I had to post daily it would be a hell of a lot lower. The advantage i've got with this thread is that I can be selective and only pick races mainly of a mile and above and races of a decent class. Racing was poor through the week but then I spotted todays race and knew it was worth the form study. I don't expect the yield to remain so high but i'll be trying my best to keep it up there. By recording my bets in past years I found my strengths (1m+) and my weaknesses (5f,6f) and used that to my own advantage. I also noticed straight away that your strength was handicaps and mentioned it to you before. Glad to see you now have a successful handicap thread :notworthy and now the winners have started to roll in again its profit will increase. Keep up the good work mate and thanks with the yield/strike rate etc, much appreciated. :D

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

If this was a NAPS yield and I had to post daily it would be a hell of a lot lower. The advantage i've got with this thread is that I can be selective and only pick races mainly of a mile and above and races of a decent class. Racing was poor through the week but then I spotted todays race and knew it was worth the form study. I don't expect the yield to remain so high but i'll be trying my best to keep it up there. By recording my bets in past years I found my strengths (1m+) and my weaknesses (5f,6f) and used that to my own advantage. I also noticed straight away that your strength was handicaps and mentioned it to you before. Glad to see you now have a successful handicap thread :notworthy and now the winners have started to roll in again its profit will increase. Keep up the good work mate and thanks with the yield/strike rate etc, much appreciated. :D

:ok Cheers mate.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Fair play mate, I was just commenting on what I have seen in my short stint here, I Will definatly go and delve deeper into the At The Races section and cast my eye over more threads similar to yours over the coming weeks.:ok

No problem mate. I certainly wasn't having a go, hope it didn't come across like that. :) Just unfair for me to take all the credit without mentioning other successful PL members in ATR. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

No problem mate. I certainly wasn't having a go' date=' hope it didn't come across like that. :) Just unfair for me to take all the credit without mentioning other successful PL members in ATR. :ok[/quote'] yap especualy russp what a tipsta ge is :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

yap especualy russp what a tipsta ge is :ok

Did someone hack your account or had you been on the beer? ;)

[bowles10]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Did someone hack your account or had you been on the beer? ;)

yep, just seen my posts from last night, had a few by the looks of it :loon

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

yap especualy russp what a tipsta ge is :ok

You always speak the truth when p*ssed:lol

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Monday 11th June 2007 Just the one for today worth a punt: Pontefract 8:15 WEATHERBYS BANK PIPALONG STAKES (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £19,631.50 1m4y GD-FM Horse by horse analysis Expensive Good 2^nd last time out over a mile and beaten 4 lengths by a potential Group horse. Travelled well enough that day despite carrying a penalty. Race before that it won a listed race by 4 lengths on the all weather over a mile. Best form is on good to firm with 9 runs producing 2 wins, 3 seconds and a 3^rd. Has a 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd from 8 runs at class 1 level and conditions should suit here. Has a Group 2 entry over 1m. Fann Easily opposed here as it has no form on good to firm and only 1 career win, which was in class 5 company. Never won over a mile but has a 2^nd from 3 attempts. Likely to be double figure odds which is a true representation of its chances of winning. Home Sweet Home An interesting runner for a trainer in form. Has some good form at lower levels over shorter trips and also a 2^nd here in a listed contest over 6f. When tried over further it has not looked very good and has been 5^th of 12 and 4^th of 12 over 7f and 10^th of 10 and 10^th of 12 over 1 mile. No ground concerns with 2 wins, a 2^nd and a 3^rd from 4 runs on good to firm. Definitely has potential for improvement but has not run for 228 days, unsure to be suited by the trip and the trainers horses are coming on for a run. Mont Etoile Clearly the best horse in the race but each level of improvement has been for a step up in trip and it is a good middle distance horse. 8^th in the 2006 St Leger and 4^th of 6 in a Group 1 race at Curragh so it is well thought of by connections and has the best form on offer with a Group 2 win but that was over 12f. Unsure if a drop back by 4f to a mile will really suit and has not run for 275 days. Had 3 maiden races over 7f and looked poor in each one as it weakened in the final furlong. Has group 3 and group 2 entries but they are in 1m4f races. Neardown Beauty Looks like a handicapper at best and has only 2 wins from 29 career starts. They have only been in class 5 company and this step up in class to listed level looks over ambitious. Been tried at listed level twice and was 6^th of 6 and 6^th of 9. Suited by trip and ground but likely to be outclassed. Passion Fruit Another handicapper being tried in listed company and has won up to class 4 level. Has had 2 runs at this track and being unplaced both times. Only has placed form on good to firm and has never won over a mile. 7f looks to be its optimum trip with 3 wins, 2 seconds and a 3^rd over that trip. 2 efforts in listed company have seen it finish 6^th and 7^th. Analysis A lot depends on whether Mont Etoile can drop back to a mile and win as it looks to be the best horse in the race but I think it’s worth taking it on with Expensive. Mont Etoile will come on for the run and the group entries over 1m4f suggest the trainer has bigger plans for the horse than a listed contest at Pontefract. Expensive also has a group entry but it’s interesting that it’s entered over a mile. Conditions should suit and I’d rather have a good miler taking on a good middle distance horse over this trip. The only other horse that may get involved is Home Sweet Home but that should come on for the run and unsure if a stiff mile with an uphill finish will suit. Expensive will definitely go on the ground and should be staying on at the finish for it’s 2^nd ever listed win. Suggested Bets: 10 PTS WIN - EXPENSIVE (Bet365 Early Price BOG) I'll be going to Pontefract after work so will update later tomorrow evening.

[evad]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread nice one again

[peteg40]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Followed you again mate good call

[jtw1]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :clap:clap:clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread That was nearly an EXPENSIVE photo finish. Though it was beaten on the nod. Result - EXPENSIVE WINS @ 6-4 Tonights totals: Stake 10pts @ 6-4, returned 25pts, profit of 15 pts for tonight New Totals Total Staked 210 PTS New Bank 379 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts :) Selections 20 Winners/Places 10 Losers 10 :) Strike Rate 50% :) Profit/Loss + 179pts :nana :cow :nana Yield 85% :nana :cow :nana

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice work Phil. ;)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Nice work Phil. ;)

Cheers Paul. Trying to keep the PL punters in profit. ;)

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Keep it going, Phil:cow

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread At last a half decent listed race over a nice 10f trip. Suggested bets will be posted tomorrow night after I know prices/non runners etc. For now here is the race preview: 8:45 TWEENHILLS FARM AND STUD WARWICKSHIRE OAKS STAKES (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £14,762.80 1m2f188y SOFT Horse by horse analysis Abhisheka Has form over the trip and has won on soft and good to soft. Outclassed each time it has been tried at listed level with no reasonable excuse for its Windsor defeat on good to soft ground and over the 10f. Respected but has only won up to class 4 level and price looks a bit too short for what it has achieved. Dash To The Front Stables second string here and has only won a class 6 maiden. Has been tried at listed level twice and came 7^th of 11 on both occasions. Likely to be outclassed again here. Managed to get 2^nd of 6 at Newmarket but that was a class 4 race, that form unlikely to be good enough to take this race and doesn’t look like it gets 10f. Don’t Dili Dali Has raced mainly over shorter trips and the 3 efforts over 10f have all ended unplaced. Won on soft but back in 2005 and the 4 efforts at listed level have seen a 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. Hampered 1f out in its last race and feeling that was not its true form. Was thought to need at least 10f these days and has been running on final furlong in a couple of 9f races. Could be good enough to get involved here and placed in a Group 3 race behind Echelon. Enforce 6^th of 8 behind Echelon in same race as Don’t Dili Dali and no form in this country to speak of on the flat. Had 2 runs over hurdles here, unplaced in a Group 2 and winning a class 4 race. Should be outclassed here but hard to know what to expect with not much to go on. Glitter Baby Best form was 4^th place behind Anna Pavlova on soft ground at Navan and won’t have any worries with more rain as has also won on heavy. Well held that day, about 10 lengths behind the winner. 7^th of 8 last time out at Hamilton over 12f and unsure if it will be good enough today. Hovering 5^th of 5, 4^th of 7, 6^th of 8 and 4^th of 5 at listed level. Only 1 win from 11 races, unproven over the trip and lacks the class to get involved here. Has run over further trips but the effort over 10f saw it finish last of 9. Mango Mischief Two runs this season have been poor, finishing 5^th of 6 and 5^th of 7 but they were both over 12f, which is probably too far and the runs were likely to be for fitness rather than success. Has placed at this course and has best form over this trip. Highly tried at this level with 2 wins, 3 seconds and 1 third from 15 races which includes wins/places at Group 3 level. 5 runs on soft have produced a 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. Portal 3^rd of 7 last time out in a Group 3 on good to soft. Comments made suggested it needs quicker ground and best form seems to be on good to firm (3 wins and a 3^rd). Won a listed race on good to firm over this trip and one most likely to have improved but short price for a horse unproven on soft and possibly needing firm ground. Stable 1^st string in this race and Spencer on board. Queens Best Ran with credit over shorter trips in class 5,4 and 3 levels but when stepped up to class 2 company on soft ground was 11^th of 12. Stepped up then to 10f and was 3^rd of 8 on the all weather. Dropped back to a mile last time out and failed to win a class 3 handicap. Looks to lack the class needed but won a class 4 race on soft. Unproven over this trip and dropping back to 8f last time out doesn’t inspire confidence. Tranquilizer Poor handicapper that has never won on turf. All its best form has been on the all weather and over at least 1m4f. Trip likely to be too sharp and well outclassed here. Big price truly represents its chances of winning. Wassfa Won last time out in a class 5 handicap over this trip and has no problem with the 10f but is another way outclassed. Needs good to firm ground, unlikely to go on soft and likely to trail in at the back of the field. Analysis I like the look of the favourite but don’t like the price if it is around 7-4 as expected when it is unproven on the ground. The 2 that I’m interested in are Don’t Dili Dali and Mango Mischief. Expected SP’s are 6-1 and 10-1. Many of these horses are unproven at listed level and need to step up from handicap form whereas Don’t Dili Dali and Mango Mischief have some Group 3 form and take a slight step down to listed level. I’d rather go for the horses that have some form at this level than those that don’t look good enough. Portal certainly has an unexposed profile and will no doubt pick up some good races this year but possibly on faster ground.

[Remmer7]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread :clap Very nice write-up, think ill have a little go on this :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Don't Dili Dali and Enforce are both non runners which sees Abhisheka as 6-4 fav, Portal available at 7-4, and Queens Best at 6-1. That would suggest they are going to fill the 3 places. I think Mango Mischief has a great chance of winning and can't see it being unplaced. Odds vary from 9-1 to 12-1 and that is a big price in my opinion. Going is soft, heavy in places and it won't suit all the front 3 in the betting. Suggested Bets: 5 PTS EW - Mango Mischief. (12-1 Ladbrokes)

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Nice price here Phil. Good luck with it mate.:hope Little e/w for me as well.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread nice write up Mowgli, i had some doubts about backing Queens Best tonight.

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Just got run out of it in to fourth mate. very unlucky.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Thought it was going to kick on and romp home but not to be :cry I was right about the 2 short priced horses Portal and Abhisheka, both unplaced and pathetic odds. :ok New Totals Total Staked 220 PTS New Bank 369 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 21 Winners/Places 10 Losers 11 Strike Rate 48% Profit/Loss + 169pts Yield 77%

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Red Evie 4.20 Ascot George Washington is a very short price for a horse that wasn't even kept in training and was forced out of retirement due to it's unsuccessful stint at stud. Will be an immense training performance if this is ready to win on seasonal debut. Cesare yet to prove it is anywhere near good enough in this class and had to be supplemented. I expect Red Evie and Ramonti to be battling out the finish. Red Evie relishes a battle, has genuine qualities and won't go down without a fight. Has a turn of foot that others lack and could be this years Ouija Board, keeps improving all the time. Proven Gp 1 horse and mile is ideal trip with ground no concern. Available at about 5-1/ 11-2 with most firms but 6-1 with Sporting Odds. 10 PTS WIN - RED EVIE (6-1 Sporting Odds)